Re: Incomes revisited

1

Look, maybe I don't really get this whole "blog" thing, but at this point is there a reason everyone is still reading the blogosphere luminaries of the 2000-2005 era? Most of the stuff they post is neither compellingly novel, nor well-researched, nor well-argued. Admittedly, I don't read those folx every day, mostly because, when I do see one of them linked here or somewhere else and I click through, it's this same mediocre, counter-factual wanking. Am I missing something?


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:23 PM
horizontal rule
2

I thought the point was to try to provide one or two conversation topics each day for a few hundred imaginary geniuses.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:25 PM
horizontal rule
3

I have more in common with people making $50,000 per year and with people making $100,000 per year than I do with people making $75,000 per year.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:29 PM
horizontal rule
4

Well, nothing against linking to it if you think it's interesting, it just seems like there are probably more coherent and less superannuated bloggers out there to link to.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:29 PM
horizontal rule
5

I'm always open to being sent links or guest posts.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:31 PM
horizontal rule
6

4: You're always free to suggest post topics or even write guest posts.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:32 PM
horizontal rule
7

Just dont' send them to heebie. She's mean.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:32 PM
horizontal rule
8

And judgemental!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:33 PM
horizontal rule
9

Yeah, seems to me that all this proves is that most people are risk averse.


Posted by: Di Kotimy | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:35 PM
horizontal rule
10

Drum is a very good blogger overall, and any suggestion that he's not (or needs an editor?) reveals lack of attention.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:36 PM
horizontal rule
11

You know, if there were any women bloggers out there, I bet they'd have something to say about this topic. Alas.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:36 PM
horizontal rule
12

(or needs an editor?)

Most writers can benefit from having an editor, if the editor is any good.


Posted by: Di Kotimy | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:37 PM
horizontal rule
13

10: Not only does he need an editor, he in fact has one (speaking of lack of attention).


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:38 PM
horizontal rule
14

I have something in common with at least two people who make less than $30K/year, because we share a toilet.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:38 PM
horizontal rule
15

14: How do you all fit?


Posted by: Di Kotimy | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:41 PM
horizontal rule
16

Who the hell wants to risk being locked into $30K/year for the rest of their life?

At least 90-95% of the population of the earth would be thrilled to take that "risk".



Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:43 PM
horizontal rule
17

suggested that one point worth making is that in America today, "someone making $100K has a lot more in common with someone making $30K than someone making $100 million."

Why is that a point worth making? It barely even seems like a point at all when you consider that someone who makes $100 million in one year is probably not making $100 million per year. Drum's response, not counting the coin flip, is right: So what? If you make $100k per year, sure, you might have money worries, depending on what you do with it. If you make $30k per year your whole life can get pretty fucked up by any number of ordinary events.


Posted by: mark f the occasional delurker | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:45 PM
horizontal rule
18

I'm so rich and white and privileged. Thanks, peep!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:45 PM
horizontal rule
19

13: My point was only that Drum (with his editor) is fine, thanks.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:47 PM
horizontal rule
20

But by decision theory standards, this is a great bet. You have a .5 chance of winning $900,000 x the number of years left in your life, and a .5 chance of losing $70,000 times the number of years left in your life. Ideally rational agents would leap at the chance.

This also seems like something that you can easily change the results of by changing the wording, but I can't think of how at the moment.


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:49 PM
horizontal rule
21

17: LB's original point was that the political interests of the 100Ker are more closely aligned with those of the 30Ker than the 100,000Ker. Drum seems to be talking primarily about lifestyle.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:50 PM
horizontal rule
22

Certainly by changing "the rest of your life" to "for one year".


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:50 PM
horizontal rule
23

I'm so rich and white and privileged. Thanks, peep!

"Testy" is the other thread.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:51 PM
horizontal rule
24

I was arguing what's essentially the editor's side of this last week, but that doesn't make Drum wrong. Possibly the break is between commonality of experience and commonality of interests? I'd still argue that there are more political interests in common between the 30K and the 100K earner than between the 100K and the 1M earner, but Drum's probably right that the day-to-day experiences of the 100K and the 1M earner are more like each other than the 100K is like the 30K. (And of course they all look very similar from the point of view of someone making a dollar a day.)


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:52 PM
horizontal rule
25

And of course they all look very similar from the point of view of someone making a dollar a day.)

Yeah, all those white people look alike.

Possibly the break is between commonality of experience and commonality of interests?

I think that's correct.

but Drum's probably right that the day-to-day experiences of the 100K and the 1M earner are more like each other than the 100K is like the 30K

But Drum's actually talking about 30K, 100K, and 100M.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:56 PM
horizontal rule
26

It seems I missed some earlier portion of this conversation. The Drum post didn't do a good job of putting the editor's comment in context, especially since his response to that comes in a seemingly tacked-on sentence at the end.


Posted by: mark f the occasional delurker | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 1:57 PM
horizontal rule
27

20: only if you're neglecting the declining marginal utility of income!


Posted by: Annelid Gustator | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:03 PM
horizontal rule
28

I once neglected the declining marginal utility of income. Then it died and we got a gold fish.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:04 PM
horizontal rule
29

Let's all say how much money we make! Sifu, you're first.


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:05 PM
horizontal rule
30

28: Seems like a pretty fair trade. Was it a solid gold fish?


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:05 PM
horizontal rule
31

16: Try it this way: Who the hell currently making $100K wants to risk sacrificing that and being locked into $30K/year for the rest of their life?


Posted by: Di Kotimy | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:06 PM
horizontal rule
32

26: It seems I missed some earlier portion of this conversation.

There was a fairly recent previous thread on the topic which didn't exactly go well. I'm not inclined to revisit the topic myself.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:08 PM
horizontal rule
33

||

New topic: My friend's phone is ringing off the hook from major news organizations calls about this bit of
astromological skullduggery
.

I have personally met Mr. Kunkle, and while he seems like a nice guy, he is also a "character."

||>


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:09 PM
horizontal rule
34

20: That model neglects to account for the value that most of us place on the sense of security.


Posted by: Di Kotimy | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:09 PM
horizontal rule
35

32 s/b "DRTFA!".


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:15 PM
horizontal rule
36

33: I have to admit, if you'd emailed me that link, I probably wouldn't have posted it.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:22 PM
horizontal rule
37

36: Because your mean. Mean as a snake.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:26 PM
horizontal rule
38

Why does it say "$100 million" in one place and "$1 million" in the other? Is one of them a typo?


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:30 PM
horizontal rule
39

38: I assumed so. Clearly Drum needs an editor.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:32 PM
horizontal rule
40

37: Mean, white, rich, and privileged as a snake, you mean.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:32 PM
horizontal rule
41

39: You don't consider the possiblity that Drum's editor needs a better writer.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:33 PM
horizontal rule
42

"your" s/b "you're"
"mena" s/b "mean"

The penalties offset each other. Replay third down.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:34 PM
horizontal rule
43

Yeah, seems to me that all this proves is that most people are risk averse.

But, as Kevin pointed out, experimental results indicate that people's risk aversion is usually on something like a 2:1 scale--twice as afraid of losses as tempted by gains. The expected value of the bet in his thought experiment is much higher than that, so purely in terms of risk-aversion most (or at least a lot of) people should have been willing to take the bet. Whereas almost no one was.

My thought, on initially reading his thought experiment, was: what am I currently doing to earn my $100,000, and what do I have to do instead in order to earn $30k, or $1m? Because if I'm doing something I like now, but I might have to spend the rest of my life cleaning toilets instead, then no thanks. But... can I just stop doing anything at all if I take the bet, and have a guaranteed income stream of either $30k or $1m/yr for life? Because if I can just sit around and smoke pot all day and get a check in the mail each month, I'm all in. Sign me up. Yeehaw. Let's rock and roll.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:35 PM
horizontal rule
44

I agree with Di that the thought experiment only proves that people are risk adverse.

As M.tch says, I think Drum and LB are talking about very different things. Lifestyle vs. political interests.

I think that the main reason why a 100K income is closer to 1M than 30K in lifestyle is simply the declining marginal utility of wealth -- once you've got the bases covered, each additional add on just matters less. Sure, when you get to $100M you can get to fly on a G6, but anyone can be fly like a G6 anyway (with enough time at the gym) so your money doesn't buy that much.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:35 PM
horizontal rule
45

Sign me up. Yeehaw. Let's rock and roll.

*fist pump!*


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:36 PM
horizontal rule
46

42: One of these people can edit the blog. Guess which one cannot.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:37 PM
horizontal rule
47

Syzzurp is cheap. But also has declining marginal utility.


Posted by: Annelid Gustator | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:37 PM
horizontal rule
48

43.2 is an interesting thought. I'm not sure what the threshold is at which I would be happy with a guaranteed income for life with no work.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:37 PM
horizontal rule
49

42: You guys could really use an editor.


Posted by: Di Kotimy | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:38 PM
horizontal rule
50

but anyone can be fly like a G6 anyway (with enough time at the gym)

Wait what? Does Crossfit offer free bottles of Tussionex as an incentive or something?


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:40 PM
horizontal rule
51

Anyway, I didn't mean that this topic in particular was any better or worse than any other, just that this whole Drum/Wyggles/Greenwald/some other guys who I can't remember coterie of established bloggers get an inordinate amount of attention.

To the post: Given that $30,000 is twice what I made last year, and that I'm about to go on unemployment for who knows how long, I would definitely take the bet.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:40 PM
horizontal rule
52

46: Shenanigans! Meanness! Meanness without bounds!!!


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:41 PM
horizontal rule
53

But, as Kevin pointed out, experimental results indicate that people's risk aversion is usually on something like a 2:1 scale--twice as afraid of losses as tempted by gains. The expected value of the bet in his thought experiment is much higher than that, so purely in terms of risk-aversion most (or at least a lot of) people should have been willing to take the bet. Whereas almost no one was.

So, that suggests people are more risk adverse when it comes to financial security than with respect to other risk. I mean, really, risking winning or losing $100 on a coin flip is really a much different risk than risking a permanent reduction of income of $70K or more per year.


Posted by: Di Kotimy | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:42 PM
horizontal rule
54

The $30K thing seemed hard to me because it specified a family of four. Without that specification, it'd be a much easier deal to take, but thinking about a kid with a toothache I can't afford to get seen to immediately makes it seem like a very bad idea.

Last time I made $30K was in the mid-90s, before law school, and as a single healthy young person, it wasn't bad at all. I was saving money. Throw three other people into the mix, though... (and of course $30K then was more than $30K now.)


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:44 PM
horizontal rule
55

At least 90-95% of the population of the earth would be thrilled to take that "risk".

According to some silly internet thing I was looking at recently, making $20,000 puts you in the top 12% of incomes world-wide. I offer this helpful unsubstantiated fact for the low low cost of free!


Posted by: Parenthetical | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:45 PM
horizontal rule
56

18: I'm sorry, heebie.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:46 PM
horizontal rule
57

52: Boy is it tempting to edit your comment into something about how delightful I am.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:51 PM
horizontal rule
58

56: In case you're actually feeling contrite, please don't. If not, at least I'm rich!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:53 PM
horizontal rule
59

57: But I did write about how delightful you are. Somebody edited it to make me appear mean!!


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:55 PM
horizontal rule
60

59: See, now I just want to edit "mean" into "mena".


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 2:57 PM
horizontal rule
61

According to some silly internet thing I was looking at recently, making $20,000 puts you in the top 12% of incomes world-wide. I offer this helpful unsubstantiated fact for the low low cost of free!

Reminds me of the beautiful but troubled Jenna in Freedom telling Joey that her boyfriend Nick says that free information on the Net is worthless. Of course Jenna and Joey (who is secretly married to Connie) are flying to Patagonia to have sex and ride horses. I think I got all that right.


Posted by: bill | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 3:01 PM
horizontal rule
62

but anyone can be fly like a G6 anyway (with enough time at the gym)

Wait what? Does Crossfit offer free bottles of Tussionex as an incentive or something?

Hmmm. I had thought that the song's lyrics separated out Sizzurp consumption as a separate activity unrelated to one's flyness (i.e., attractive appearance), such that Sizzurp drinking was encouraged but that one was also expected to be "fly" like a G6 by dint of one's physical, gym-induced good looks.

On closer review of the lyrics, though, that is not the case, and the point of the song is that one can feel like one is good looking through the consumption of Sizzurp. Is that an accurate description of Sizzurp drinkers in a Slizzarded state? I can't say. In any event, my apologies.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 3:03 PM
horizontal rule
63

It's embarrassing how much they paid me to make Bio-Dome!


Posted by: Pauly Shore | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 3:21 PM
horizontal rule
64

Per Wikipedia, $30k is about a third of US households, so some fucker had better be happy making it for the rest of his life, or there's going to be a revolution. Actually, thinking about it, mobility is notoriously poor, so I'd guess that a substantial fraction of people earning that would take the deal, on the basis that you'd be offering them a guarantee that they wouldn't slip into real poverty.


Posted by: dsquared | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 3:26 PM
horizontal rule
65

Oh, I forgot about the family of four part. So basically the choice is between going from solidly middle-middle class to either borderline poverty (in many parts of the country) or extreme wealth. That does change it a little bit, but I guess the counter-factual part still bugs me. The actual choices that people face, and which would presumably contribute to their ideological slant, are more like: "Flip a coin to see if you will take a 20% pay cut, with no more than a 2.5% raise in any given year, be forced into early retirement at 59 and see the retirement age increased to 70 or whether you will receive several promotions such that you wind up making $250,000 per year, plus 401(k) contributions, deferred compensation and other benefits."


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 3:26 PM
horizontal rule
66

Also, indexation.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 3:54 PM
horizontal rule
67

I'm not really sure what Drum's poll actually has to do with his editor's claim, which was that someone making 100K (a year, let's say) has a lot more in common with someone making 30K than with someone making 1000000K.


Posted by: nosflow | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 4:06 PM
horizontal rule
68

67: It's the difference between whether the income-earners in question have a lot more in common politically or in terms of lifestyle, as has been mentioned upthread.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 5:06 PM
horizontal rule
69

I'm pretty sure that the day-to-day experience of the $100k/year person have a lot more in common with the day-to-day experience of the $30k/year person than they do with someone making $100M/year (or even $10M/year, though maybe or maybe not someone making $1M/year).

I mean, someone who's making $30k/year almost certainly isn't homeless. They aren't eating cat food. They are, don't get me wrong, a lot poorer day-to-day than someone making $100k/year, but not so much different that their day to day experiences are a whole class apart. They'll have fewer and cheaper luxuries, but most of the difference is difference of degree, not kind.

Whereas someone who makes $10M/year has no need to work, can take exotic crazy vacations, probably has multiple residences, can have a driver if they don't like to drive themselves, can basically indulge any whim they want without worrying about it.

If you want to look for commonalities between a $100k and a $10M versus a $30k, I think you need to look not at day-to-day life, but at security and disaster recovery.


Posted by: Epoch | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 5:21 PM
horizontal rule
70

someone who makes $10M/year has no need to work

Presumably they do if they want the $10M.


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 5:41 PM
horizontal rule
71

can basically indulge any whim they want without worrying about it.

My whim is to spend $11M/year.


Posted by: Opinionated guy earning $10M/year | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 5:42 PM
horizontal rule
72

Further to 68: I'm projecting here a bit, but I think Drum's point may be that a lifestyle difference between $100K and $30K amounts to a political difference as well, contrary claims notwithstanding: the $100K family/earner isn't going to be as concerned about, say, health insurance, or the availability of fresh food (the urban food desert problem), or for that matter the availability of abortion providers. The $100K earner can travel to these things.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 5:55 PM
horizontal rule
73

Presumably they do if they want the $10M.

I live off my investments.


Posted by: nosflow | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 5:56 PM
horizontal rule
74

72: I think the $100K earner without health insurance is greatly concerned about it, possiblly more so that the person with $30K in earnings. In most states, the $30K family will get coverage for at least the kids from the government. The $100K guy with a family is looking at at least $15,000 in premiums for coverage that might not be enough to protect whatever the family has saved should one get sick.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:02 PM
horizontal rule
75

74: I'll drop the health insurance coverage item from my list for the sake of comity.

Feel free to address the food availability, and abortion provider question. I'll add in the relative abilities of the $30K vs. the $100K earners to buy a home, and throw in the home mortgage deduction for home-owners, and the regulations against renters in any number of communities.

Remember, my point is that the lifestyle difference between $30K and $100K amounts to a political difference -- not in party affiliation, necessarily, but in public policy priorities.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:10 PM
horizontal rule
76

I'm not disputing the main point, even on health insurance. The $30k family probably wants expanded government care. The $100k family may want something different.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:14 PM
horizontal rule
77

But, they are both worried about health care, if they don't have it through a job. You'd need more than $100k before you aren't worried about health care costs.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:15 PM
horizontal rule
78

1

Look, maybe I don't really get this whole "blog" thing, but at this point is there a reason everyone is still reading the blogosphere luminaries of the 2000-2005 era? Most of the stuff they post is neither compellingly novel, nor well-researched, nor well-argued. Admittedly, I don't read those folx every day, mostly because, when I do see one of them linked here or somewhere else and I click through, it's this same mediocre, counter-factual wanking. Am I missing something?

Why do people have the same old boring friends they've known for years? There are probably much better people to be friends with out there somewhere.

You have some suggestions for blogs that are more worth reading than Drum's?


Posted by: James B. Shearer | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:21 PM
horizontal rule
79

32

There was a fairly recent previous thread on the topic which didn't exactly go well. I'm not inclined to revisit the topic myself.

In what way did it go badly? Myself I think contentious threads are more interesting. Of course you don't want things so contentious that half the commenters leave forever but I don't recall the thread approaching that point.


Posted by: James B. Shearer | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:25 PM
horizontal rule
80

51

To the post: Given that $30,000 is twice what I made last year, and that I'm about to go on unemployment for who knows how long, I would definitely take the bet.

Assume the choice is between $100,000 a year for sure or a 50-50 coin flip between $30,000 a year and $1,000,000 a year. Then do you take the flip?


Posted by: James B. Shearer | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:29 PM
horizontal rule
81

76: The $30k family probably wants expanded government care.

The items I mentioned don't have much to do with expanded government care. Again, the (healthful) food desert, abortion (or family planning) provision. These are public policy issues, which are far less on the radar of the $100K family than they are on that of the $30K.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:46 PM
horizontal rule
82

are far less on the radar of the $100K family than they are on that of the $30K

I'm not sure this is true, as a general matter, unless you control for the overall level of political engagement of the two families.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:48 PM
horizontal rule
83

81: 76 was going back to health insurance. Just because you leave a topic, doesn't mean I have to.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:49 PM
horizontal rule
84

Though I suppose I should be clear about stuff.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:52 PM
horizontal rule
85

82: Okay. Let's control for that. I'll take a guess: $100K families are far, far less likely to prioritize issues of concern to $30K families than $30K families are, unless they're the unusual $100K politically engaged family.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 6:55 PM
horizontal rule
86

This whole discussion is weird, because of the income/wealth distinction. I know personally a few guys who make north of $10m per year in income derived from their work. TheIr lives aren't much like mine, because they're working all the fucking time, are completely consumed by their jobs, and probably derive as much or more pleasure from the power they get from their positions of authority at work than they do from actual income. Sure, they have things like ski houses and fancy cars and go to fancy restaurants a lot, but those things are at best incredibly insigniicant parts of their lives -- mostly, it's just all about the work.

On the other hand, one of my best friends is independently wealthy enough to not have to work at all --he could probably draw an "income" from his assets of a few hundred thousand annually for life but takes a bit less to conserve the assets, lives in a building in Soho (NYC) that his family owns, etc. His life is also completely different, because it is more or less devoid of work -- he manages a few family assets for maybe 10 hours a week or so, and otherwise he just raises his kid, watches TV, and does things like take random extension courses at NYU. He doesn't "make" 10 million but his lifestyle is obviously pretty much idle rich. On the othe hand, he just does pretty much what I'd do were I not working.

In conclusion, five dollars.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:15 PM
horizontal rule
87

86.2: He probably fights crime using a secret identity.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:20 PM
horizontal rule
88

No better conclusion than that, Robert Halford? I don't know about this five dollars thing.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:23 PM
horizontal rule
89

I don't understand the thought experiment. Specifically, I don't understand how it is an experiment, and how it demonstrates thought.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:24 PM
horizontal rule
90

86

How many people do you know equally well in the $30,000/year or less bracket?


Posted by: James B. Shearer | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:26 PM
horizontal rule
91

I dunno. I guess optimal social policy means that wealth should accrue to productive workaholics, but those guys are assholes and I vastly prefer my wealthy, lazy friend. Maybe I'll start an anti-defamation society focused on the lazy rich.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:27 PM
horizontal rule
92

I guess optimal social policy means that wealth should accrue to productive workaholics

meet:

are completely consumed by their jobs, and probably derive as much or more pleasure from the power they get from their positions of authority at work than they do from actual income

It sounds to me like optimal social policy would to tax most of their wealth away and give it to people who need it. Since after all the power and authority are the reasons they're such productive workaholics, not the extra money.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:32 PM
horizontal rule
93

Well, yes, that.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:34 PM
horizontal rule
94

I can't really come upnwith a justification for helping only the lazy rich, though, and not the productive ones. Maybe a "drone exemption" to the redistributive tax if you can show that you've been basically just sitting around all day in an entertaining way?


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:36 PM
horizontal rule
95

44: Robert, I propose that you (and Di) are either misunderstanding risk aversion or marginal utility. You say this:

I agree with Di that the thought experiment only proves that people are risk adverse.

Reading that, I was going to disagree and cite the decreasing marginal utility of the additional dollars, but you did that yourself:

I think that the main reason why a 100K income is closer to 1M than 30K in lifestyle is simply the declining marginal utility of wealth -- once you've got the bases covered, each additional add on just matters less.

Your words, read properly, are contradictory. Personally, I agree with the latter statement. People who won't risk $70,000 annually for an equal chance of winning $900,000 are not risk averse, they merely understand that the marginal utility of each additional dollar falls off rapidly at some point.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:36 PM
horizontal rule
96

91: Bah. Fuck wealth. We're all born, we live, and we die. We all deserve certain fundamental human and civil rights and services (where services might just mean being able to get a condom, or clean water).

It has nothing to do with level of workaholicism. Weirdo.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:37 PM
horizontal rule
97

I just toss around Econo-ish buzzwords without really understanding them, as do most lawyers, but why can't both be true? I.e., the thought experiment works the way it does because of both (some) risk aversion and (some) recognition of the declining marginal value of the dollar?


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:39 PM
horizontal rule
98

Who's going to stand up for the lazy non-rich?


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:43 PM
horizontal rule
99

The questioner has two sealed envelopes. One indicates you get the $30K, the other the $1M. After you select one, he offers you to trade envelopes. Should you?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:44 PM
horizontal rule
100

98: What do they pay per year to stand?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 7:45 PM
horizontal rule
101

So most people making $100K wouldn't flip the coin if you could get $1 million per year or $30k per year. But what if instead of $30K it was $50K? Probably a lot more people. I wonder what dollar value would get 50% of folks to make the bet.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 8:06 PM
horizontal rule
102

http://vivianmaier.blogspot.com/2009/08/blog-post_5340.html


Posted by: lw | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 8:28 PM
horizontal rule
103

But what if instead of $30K it was $50K? Probably a lot more people.

Yeah, this. It may be just a special case of the declining marginal utility of moolah, but isn't there, like, a threshold effect? There's some amount of money you consider necessary to lead a decent life, and for a downside outcome below that level you wouldn't take the choice even given very good odds on the upside, but above that only the usual risk aversion and marginal utility issues apply.

Also, the unwillingness of commenters to take the gamble is a point in favour of the claim by Rawls that in the Original Position the rational person would insist on a society which maximises the welfare of the worst-off. (I mean, the threshold thing is a bit different in that it's consistent with allowing inequalities that aren't for the benefit of the worst off as long a the worst off lead a decent life, but it's related.)


Posted by: One of Many | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 9:47 PM
horizontal rule
104

Won't somebody mention Kahneman? I mean geez.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 10:10 PM
horizontal rule
105

I'm more of a Tversky guy.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-13-11 10:19 PM
horizontal rule
106

Maybe I'll start an anti-defamation society focused on the lazy rich.

You could start by calling them "idle" or something even less pejorative. Ladies and gentlemen of leisure? The leisure class?

The other thing is that it's far from clear that most of those super-high-earners actually do, in fact, produce a lot for society.


Posted by: x.trapnel | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 4:01 AM
horizontal rule
107

I'd totes take this bet; my statistical pedantry wouldn't allow me to do any other. Besides, 30K goes pretty far in a lot of places; I'd just go become a poet warlord in Laos or something. Of course, with thirty grand I'd probably only get a henchman, two flunkies and a limerick, but it'd still be pretty sweet.


Posted by: foolishmortal | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 5:36 AM
horizontal rule
108

97: why can't both be true?

Because Halford says so! See 44:

I agree with Di that the thought experiment only proves that people are risk adverse.

More seriously and less obnoxiously: I find Drum persuasive that both are true - and that the marginal utility effect swamps the risk aversion effect.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 5:46 AM
horizontal rule
109

I lived in a two-adults/no-kids 30K household in my mid-20s and a two-adults/three-kids 100K household now. My standard of living is a little higher now, but not by much. Small children are expensive, though I can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel*. OTOH, raising three kids on 30K would be a serious downgrade.

*2011 looks to be much more comfortable than 2010: we refinanced the mortgage, paid off the equity line, finished paying off one of the cars, and I reached 9 years at my job, where they cover 100% of your whole family's health insurance. So back into the black for the first time in three years! Also, if the youngest gets picked in the lottery for one of the two public Montessori magnets (which have pre-K programs), we'll be done with day care in the fall. That alone would add about $900/month back into the budget.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 6:04 AM
horizontal rule
110

Small children are expensive

You're suppose to use them in small amounts, for flavor.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 6:24 AM
horizontal rule
111

OT: Terrorism, the government response to it, entrapment, and gun control are all very weighty subjects that I'd like to ignore as I point out that "You're allowed to sleep with them, even though that's kind of stupid" is a phrase I did not expect to see in this context.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 6:43 AM
horizontal rule
112

I thought 111 was going to be about this.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 6:49 AM
horizontal rule
113

111 gets to that, at the bottom of the article.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 6:53 AM
horizontal rule
114

111: This sounds like a gigantic miscarriage of justice. Based on my internet researches, there's probably about 100,000 young men in this country who also: (a) have some guns and ammunition, (b) like to imagine themselves as heroic martyrs and (c) talk to people even crazier than themselves on the internet. The difference with most of them is that they're some variety of neo-Nazi/reactionary/Klan/asshole, rather than deluded pseudo-Muslims.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 7:24 AM
horizontal rule
115

But back on topic, I think I have one or two friends who are in the $100K range. But the vast majority of my friends are much closer to the $30K range. In fact, I've got quite a few friends who only survive because of the EIC. Of course, since I know many of my friends through radical politics, they're not very instructive for the purposes of determining political affiliation. But as far as lifestyle goes, it's kind of hard to say. Certainly my few $100K friends are wont to go on nice vacations, have more money in the bank and for retirement, and drive nicer cars, and, perhaps most trenchantly, live in much less-racially-integrated neighborhoods than my $30K-and-under friends. But they generally work harder to do all that, and they still feel insecure about the future.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 7:30 AM
horizontal rule
116

The other thing is that it's far from clear that most of those super-high-earners actually do, in fact, produce a lot for society.

They produce a lot of net income, which they give to themselves. And good luck taxing it! Those clever sods will just turn it into "deadweight loss", and nobody wants that.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 8:01 AM
horizontal rule
117

Yesterday I was listening to some NPR call-in show, whose topic was unemployment insurance. One caller, who seemed to have been employed previously closer to the $100K mark, was reacting to her experience dealing with the unemployment office. It's really inefficient! And they don't even ask for ID, just your SSN! And it's really wasteful!

It made me feel very skeptical about the prospects of $100K types en masse identifying with the $30K (or less) crowd.

I've mentioned before this poverty simulator workshop, which seems like it might be useful for, uh, lots of people. One relative's recent experience: it's a royal fucking pain in the ass to do things like get a state-issued ID without, say, access a personal vehicle.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 10:43 AM
horizontal rule
118

poverty simulator workshop

And yet Flight Simulator had all the sales.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 11:02 AM
horizontal rule
119

117: I'm sure I've said this here before, but waiting for WIC appointments while caring for a small child is a huge pain and navigating all the related bureaucracy is frustrating even for me, with my middle-class background and education and car. I also think being a foster parent opens doors for me that a biological parent whose child gets WIC and is on state Medicaid couldn't access.


Posted by: Thorn | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 11:35 AM
horizontal rule
120

The interesting question isn't whether the $100kers would take the coin flip, it's whether the $1mm-aires would be willing to take the coinflip. That's the relevant comparison. The middling $100,000-aires don't know what it's like to be rich, so they don't know what they're missing.


Posted by: bjk | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 2:24 PM
horizontal rule
121

And is it true that some people have to take the bus to the dmv? Couldn't some sort of limousine service be set up so that kind of indignity will never happen again?


Posted by: bjk | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 2:26 PM
horizontal rule
122

121: The person I was thinking of was in an area without public transportation, but I'll pass along your thoughtful suggestion. Thanks!


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 2:30 PM
horizontal rule
123

||
NMM to Trish Keenan of Broadcast. I'm pretty bummed about this, I love(d) Broadcast. Do yourself a favor and check out Broadcast and The Focus Group Investigate Witch Cults of the Radio Age.
|>


Posted by: Yrruk | Link to this comment | 01-14-11 6:13 PM
horizontal rule
124

This discussion about the meaning of an annual income of $30K vs. $100K per year reminded me of the opening sentences of How to Lie With Statistics, which was published in 1954:


"The average Yaleman, Class of '24," Time magazine noted once, commenting on something in the New York Sun, "makes $25,111 a year."


Well, good for him!


But wait a minute. What does this impressive figure mean? Is it, as it appears to be, evidence that if you send your boy to Yale you won't have to work in your old age and neither will he?

While the general advice in the book remains relevant today, the salary figures in the examples serve as a pretty vivid reminder that even a figure that sounds really impressive today may not remain so with the passage of time. If those figures don't come with a COLA, you might not want to be stuck with even an annual income of $100K, much less $30K. For what it's worth, the change in the CPI from 1954 to 2010 was a bit over 8x, so that $25K/year example might correspond to something over $200K/year today.


Posted by: Dave W. | Link to this comment | 01-16-11 11:39 PM
horizontal rule
125

Extremely late, but 70:

I don't have any figures on hand, but I seriously doubt that very many people who make $10M/year do so via a job. A few of the very top-flight CEOs, perhaps, but otherwise, it almost certainly comes from investments for the majority of people.

But, even if you have no starting wealth, but make $10M/year, it's clearly the case that after a pretty small amount of time, you don't have to work. Call it, I don't know, 5 years? $50M income, throw half of it to taxes (actually, likely less), $25M, invest it relatively conservatively and take out $1M per year to live off of, and it should last you the rest of your life (you'll probably be drawing down the principal, but only slowly).

At which point, compared to the $100k/year person, you can spend decades living on ten times his income without working. If you're willing to live on "only" three times the $100k/year person's income, that much less difficult.

But, again, actually the case is that almost nobody who makes $10M/year gets most of it from their job -- lots of them HAVE jobs, but they're jobs that they can quit and still be very, very rich.

And that's one of the key differences between the $10M person and the $100k and $30k people -- the $10M person has a lot of options if they don't want to work.

(I'm using $10M as a reasonable compromise between the $100M and the $1M that Kevin Drum's post addresses. If we take the $100M person as the actual modal "super rich person," then it's obviously the case that they never need work more than maybe a year on the outside. The $1M person is more likely to derive their income from a job, and while they could relatively easily accumulate enough wealth to quit working and live a modest lifestyle, they'd have a lot more difficulty quitting working and live a lavish, ultra-rich lifestyle)


Posted by: Epoch | Link to this comment | 01-17-11 1:11 PM
horizontal rule