Re: Polling sites

1

I like how there's a button that lets you exclude Rasmussen polls. Clicking it makes me feel better about the future.

Everyone knows Rasmussen leans Republican, but does that mean that the polls are less reflective of the real voting public? Could it be that people really are just more conservative than the other polling agencies find?


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 7:46 AM
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2

I find lots of cracking up materials these days!


Posted by: text | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 7:57 AM
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3

I'm still partial to FiveThirtyEight as a reasonable aggregate of polls. A pool of polls for the proles. Maybe I'm still hanging on to 2008, when Nate Silver was really coming into the spotlight. He was really good back then.


Posted by: Mentioner | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 8:23 AM
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4

1 - The thing about Rasmussen is that he's reweighing his samples to reflect partisan identification (rather than, say, demographic information like age, gender, or race). This is wrong for two reasons. The first is that partisan identification is highly fluid -- if John Kerry is doing badly, some percentage of independents will say they're Republicans and some percentage of Democrats will say they're independents. The second is that Rasmussen's targets for the reweighing are ludicrous; although he updates his targets every month, I believe he was most recently projecting a R+4 electorate, which would be by a large margin the most Republican electorate in a generation (2004 was dead even; 2008 was D+7).


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 2:10 PM
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5

Rasmussen isn't failing at polling. The Republicans are failing to exist in sufficient numbers.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 2:21 PM
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6

Hence their opposition to abortion and birth control.


Posted by: MAE | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 2:25 PM
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7

Should the Republican Party become irrelevant, down to say 25% of the population...then the Democratic Party will have to split into:

A social issue/identity politics economic moderate to neo-liberal wing or party and a economically radical wing also liberal on social issues. There is no space anymore for a Christian Socialist Party in America.

That is the real division in American politics today, one you can see on every leftblog comment board, those whose desire for economic justice and redistribution is not bribed off with identity symbolics.

This will happen before 2016, probably in the 2014 midterms. It will get ugly, and I hope the easier path of three parties, bringing Republicans back into relevance is the one taken. Otherwise, the Democratic Party of UMC Diversity will just have to be destroyed.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 2:43 PM
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8

The neo-liberal corporatist wing will of course use its tools of obfuscation to defend itself, calling the socialists sexist, racist, homophobic (just as we saw in 2008 and since).

The socialist wing will have to run against Obama and his legacy, especially after the Grand Bargain Betrayal, and will thereby open itself up to such false charges.

But without Obama I hope the various identity bases of the Democratic Party can be split on class lines. Yeah, populism with a particularly vicious anti-intellectual message is probably the only way to discredit the Rainbow Technocrats.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 2:58 PM
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9

Huh. So Rasmussen is just an older, institutional version of the Unskewed crowd? I always assumed it was about biasing question phrasing, sampling methods, and so forth.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 6:38 PM
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10

This will happen before 2016, probably in the 2014 midterms.

The GOP has the elephant. Democrats, the donkey. Obviously, this new party bob describes will have the squirrel.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 6:44 PM
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11

But not in a way we could understand.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 6:48 PM
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12

I'm not very good at understanding.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 6:53 PM
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13

About the squirrels? ACORN, dude.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 7:31 PM
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14

You know the squirrel with the absurdly large testicles? I'm in a bar with a framed picture of that.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 8:17 PM
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15

Because of Squirrel Hill.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 8:20 PM
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16

I know of him.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 8:27 PM
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17

||

Does anyone around these parts use the word "yolo"? Suddenly, I'm surrounded by people using it, and I'd never heard it before this past week.

|>


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 8:40 PM
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18

YOLO, but also YODIACCO.


Posted by: Cryp[tic ned | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 8:45 PM
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19

YOLOIYCCTL


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 8:46 PM
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20

17 -- so you moved in with V-Wafe. Now we know.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 10:04 PM
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21

Von Wafer is a teenage nihilist?


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 10:07 PM
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22

Davis, CA is pretty much the county seat of I-don't-give-a-fuck.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 10:13 PM
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23

Oh, I see. Clever.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 10:15 PM
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24

warco yolo


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 10:58 PM
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25

The Urban Dictionary entry is pretty great.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 11:02 PM
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26

Oops. That was supposed to be varco yolo.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 11:05 PM
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27

The county also has an attractive website, which reveals among other things that Davis is not actually the county seat.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 5-12 11:08 PM
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28

Football game today in Davis, nonetheless. No chance it'll be on at an airport TV in Houston, though.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 4:17 AM
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29

There is no space anymore for a Christian Socialist Party in America.

Well, I'm glad we sorted that one out!

(I didn't know Bob read Stiftung Leo Strauss.)


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 5:25 AM
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30

9- The unskewed guy was inspired by Rasmussen.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 5:32 AM
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31

a Christian Socialist Party in America

Fred Clark for President! (I suspect he would quote General Sherman at anybody who suggested it.)


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 5:43 AM
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32

Davis, CA is pretty much the county seat of I-don't-give-a-fuck.

And yet, I've never heard "yolo" from the person I know who spent eight years in Davis.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:04 AM
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33

Survivorship bias.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:08 AM
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34

I just learned "yolo" myself. I'd heard it, but figured it was something from Spanish. Yo lo ....


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:09 AM
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35

Like the band whose name is an injunction to dance: "Yolo; Tango!"


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:30 AM
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36

Yo lo ....

metí en yogur.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:31 AM
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37

35 was me. Not sure why the website forgot me.

Also, there is a very loud brass band outside my current lodgings. The hell? A pre-Columbus Day parade or something?


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:31 AM
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38

Foxtrot?


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:38 AM
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39

At the Yankee Hotel?


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:41 AM
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40

Compendious!


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:50 AM
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41

Pittsburgh has its Columbus Day parade today.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:50 AM
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42

On further inspection it appears to be a collection of mostly older guys in bright red jumpsuits gathered in a nearby parking lot. At least one of the jumpsuits is a Santa Claus costume. There's also a juggler in a bright red-and-white-striped outfit.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:54 AM
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43

Probably unrelatedly, there are children all over the nearby square shaking jars of coins, apparently asking for money, but none of them are saying what they're fundraising for.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 7:58 AM
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44

40: That Drake song is truly terrible.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:01 AM
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45

It's over 70 degrees out right now and those jumpsuits must be miserably hot. Some of them look more like pajamas.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:02 AM
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46

Interesting that 1* is sort of the same sentiment, but with an opposite connotation from yolo.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:02 AM
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47

Is it this, essear?


Posted by: Bave | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:06 AM
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48

Ohhh 47 is probably right. Also, the event in 47 is awesome, and very worth checking out.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:08 AM
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49

Must be! Looks like nothing's scheduled to start until later today, but I guess it's a band warming up.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:09 AM
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50

47: Man, I've always wanted to go to that. Brass Messengers! Rude Mechanicals!


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:09 AM
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51

And speaking of activists!
http://www.warehouseworker.org/news/2012/10/walmart-warehouse-strikers-to-return-to-work-with-full-back-pay/


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:12 AM
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52

Smearcase and I are going to it later today or tomorrow. I am excited.


Posted by: Bave | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:13 AM
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53

Lucky bargees!


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:15 AM
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54

It actually does look kind of awesome. Having a nasty cold is probably going to limit the amount of time I can spend checking it out. Though it sounds like I might be able to hear everything happening at one of the venues without leaving home.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:15 AM
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55

but I guess it's a band warming up.

Nobody is really sure the band is getting warmer and, if it is, that the warming is caused by humans.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:16 AM
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56

A recent controversial study linked band warming to tuba-erculosis.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:25 AM
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57

37: Also, there is a very loud brass band outside my current lodgings.

But I trust that the poem annotation project proceeds apace?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 8:31 AM
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58

The Last Psychiatrist on Lil Wayne, Violence, and Revolution

To get people to be more afraid of fighting, even in self-defense, than the physical pain of an assault takes a lot of years of training, good thing we jump on it early.

First off: associate getting hit with guilt. Even if it's not your fault, it is still felt like it's your fault, and this can be verified by every woman in a domestic relationship, which is why they stay.

The only people who learn that getting hit isn't synonymous with guilt are those who get hit inconsistently, randomly-- having older brothers, abusive parents, constant fights with other kids in the neighborhood, etc.

You'll observe a certain characteristic true of all bullying: the victim never fights back at all. He takes his beating, as if to show that he can take it, his strength is in not being broken.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 10- 6-12 2:50 PM
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