Obama by 3.5%. Electoral vote 332-206.
Obama by 2%. Electoral vote 319-219.
I used my stupid website from the 2004 election to do the math. No maps, but its a good reminder of what the web looked like in 2004.
Looks like he's asking for our state-by-state predictions? I'd prefer to have more of an interface for that.
Seems like it would have been a good idea to set up the site a while back, to have the predictions in place by the time of the election. Or to turn it into a general prediction-check site, not just for the elections (kind of like Atrios's Friedman-unit updates).
Or is it, as Minivet suggests, not so much a name-and-shame exercise as a fantasy football exercise? Basically, I'm confused.
This is my prediction. (via [ SOOBC he can tell you himself ])
Obama wins. Romney wears magic underwear to concession speech, is disappointed in lack of magical effect. Gives speech that confirms collective sense he is a prick.
Pitched battles at polling places due to massive voting suppression efforts by the GOP. This leads a full blown proletarian uprising resulting in the extermination of the kulaks, terror being the order of the day, blood running in the streets, etc.
Followed closely by a nuclear strike on Japan.
2 And it's a good reminder of what the state by state electoral vote totals looked like before the census.
8: Actually, I checked, and it seems to have been properly updated - compare with this.
I'm looking forward to Obama's victory speech, in which he declares gun confiscation and Sharia law.
Come to think of it, I also did another version of the calculator that worked as a map, but it I never did anything with it because proper SVG support in browsers never arrived. It works in Chrome, and maybe Firefox. Other browsers, no promises.
Surprisingly little blood in the streets.
Well, its hard to have a good street-riot during a Nor'easter.
13: Oh, I was thinking because the Republicans will steal the election, and (partly because) Democrats won't riot. But Nor'easter sounds good, too.
I'm looking forward to spending my recreational abortion vouchers.
14 forced gay marriage under Shariah law.
14: Illegal immigrants will be exempt; we need them to procreate to overwhelm the white race.
Mandatory hijab with sleeveless dresses.
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Speaking of death panels, I will be in the bay area the week after thanksgiving (Nov. 24 - Dec. 2). I would very much enjoy escaping the familial compound to see some of you reprobates. East Bay venues preferred.
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Allow me to be the last to suggest Jupiter.
270 To Win is probably the handiest workspace.
My prediction is Obama 272, losing OH (to voting machine fraud), VA, and FL. 50.1% of the popular vote.
How the hell did Obama manage to win Indiana last time, and why was it not even on the table this go-round?
Even in Indiana, people really did not like me by 2008.
Be more specific. Which of us reprobates?
21: if someone puts something together, I'll plan to come and then beg off at the last moment, probably because I'll be recovering from back surgery. I'm just that reliable.
I'll be there. The Trappist is nice.
Also, I've never been there, while I've been to Jupiter all too often.
I just went to the Trappist website and am prepared to agitate violently for going there over Jupiter.
Romney wins Florida, NC, and Virginia, steals Ohio, and wins Colorado. 49.8% Obama wins Wisconsin, NH, Iowa, Nevada. 50.2%
Not that I hope this is what happens, but when you see it all written out like that, it doesn't seem at all crazy.
Gives speech that confirms collective sense he is a prick
I allow myself no hope anymore, but I also have been thinking that one upside of an Obama victory would be a stupendously ungracious, mean-spirited, petulant non-concession concession by Romney, fixing him forever in the collective imagination as the miserable douchebag that he is.
Predictions suck. So I will provide a hope*. PV O 50.8% R 46.3%. EV -- don't know, some decent O margin. And the "hope" part is all about the character and judgment of the voting population rather than the result itself.
*My fears are not worth putting on paper.
Especially the white male voters, for God's sake, man up and get over yourselves. It's getting downright embarrassing.
Thanks, Heebie!
It's more of a name-and-shame-or-fame exercise for pundits. I'll definitely have Nate Silver, Sam Wang, George Will, Erick Erickson, the Unskewed Polls guy, and whoever else of note I can dig up on there. If you know of a pundit whose prediction should be rated, please point me to him / her! I need state-by-state predictions.
Still ironing out the last details of the ranking format.
Ah, I see that Plumer has a nice prediction post here.
Not technically a pundit, but it would be interesting to see how TPM's Polltracker fares. I don't know if they do historical data, but if so you could see at what point the polls most closely matched the eventual outcome.
Anecdata! 7:10 and 100 people in line in the people's republic. That's higher turnout that 2008, when I voted at the same hour.
(In case people didn't do the math on 31, that's a Romney victory. No, I don't think that's going to happen, but it's not as if it can't.)
Romney 301, Obama 237. Ohio stolen. "Unskewed" people claim total vindication. After praying to the God I long ignored, the Earth swallows me whole.
Also you should have Drew Linzer, the Votamatic.org guy.
I predict that the state polls slightly understate Obama's numbers because of his superior ground game, so Obama wins all the swing states including Florida, and NC is close but still goes for Romney.
I think Nate Silver has taken most of the fun out of election prediction for the rest of us.
My prediction is Obama wins fairly easily. I think there is a bias in the news media towards portraying semi-competitive elections as closer than they actually are.
Definitely the Trappist if you haven't been there. I would advocate for it at every opportunity but I try to keep a lid on myself.
...one upside of an Obama victory would be a stupendously ungracious, mean-spirited, petulant non-concession concession by Romney, fixing him forever in the collective imagination as the miserable douchebag that he is.
Please God make it so.
Silver's model has moved Florida back into Obama's column.
I voted for Obama a couple of weeks ago, but I would probably take back my vote if I could now. He was across the street from me yesterday, and he didn't even stop by to say hello! What ingratitude!
48
Silver's model has moved Florida back into Obama's column.
52-48 which he labels a tossup.
Sam Wang's gone all in, Bayesian model 100% probability of reelect.
NtEW is the best known blogger I've ever actually spoken to in person, we were on the bus to Baltimore following UnfoggeDCon. Sadly most of the discussion was him trying to convince me to support Edwards. Sure, I sat next to Yglesias during the Giants game, but he never said anything to me. Actually, Spackerman was there and I think we talked a bit.
Rmoney was voting just a couple miles from my house this morning.
I know that XKCD is depreciated by some around here, but this is awesome. Especially the mouseover text.
Two good graphics:
How we'll win* and when we'll know.
*Cheaters gonna cheat, though.
54: The second chart is a little misleading, because the poll-closing time cannot be equated with "when we'll know", except for the blowout states that can be called based on exit polls. I wouldn't be much surprised if Obama hits 270 before any of the networks call Ohio or Florida. I certainly hope that's the case, to take the race out of recount territory.
That's a bit simplified- if Obama wins FL he wins, but Ohio doesn't make it certain, just extremely likely. If there's some combination of Sandy and ID shenanigans in PA it could be tighter than would be suggested by an Ohio win.
And there's a disclaimer on the page that says so!
I voted for some random socialist I know nothing about over Charlie Rangel. Was this the right thing to do, as futile gestures go?
58: I am not the person to tell you it was a bad idea, clearly -- Rangel's as safe in the general as anyone could be. I'm still fond of him, though. Tax evasion, schmax evasion, he's been on the right side of almost every political issue I can think of. (And I would have said everything, except I'd have to google to remember if he was an Iraq war holdout, and odds are he wasn't0.
Yeah, a candidate could never be elected to higher office if there were some question about their tax shelters.
I threw together an impromptu result watching party starting at 8, if they call VA before then it will be a very anticlimactic. Or maybe it will be AWESOME!
I keep hearing about Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, but how much will suppression / tampering be applicable in the other swing states?
Just like in 2008, I think the early Virginia results will be very telling. But that year there was also the early returns from the Indiana miracle to highlight McCain's future as a Sunday talk show guest.
21: Are most meetups weekend or weekday? I'm in the bay area (can reach Oakland) M-Th nights.
It's all down to suppressing the white racist vote now.
My one kid and a group of friends actually had a mildly unpleasant early voting experience in Ohio yesterday. Although it seemed to be more standard town*/gown (DFH variety) cultural divide than any direct partisan thing. Basically a bunch of minor stuff; his personal WTF moment came when he got to the table. He gave his name and the women said, "Speak up, I'm sure you're louder than that at your parties."
*And since it was early voting, not the actual town with the gown.
This reminds me a lot of 2004. It seems close enough that it's hard to have any certainty in advance. In 04 the exit polls showed Ohio going for Kerry but Bush won it by two points I think. It will be a long night. Also feels like 2004 in that you had this feeling that Bush was going to win even though Kerry was tied by some measures (except with party roles reversed).
I don't recall any of the specific data points, but I think it was fairly clear by election day that Kerry wasn't at all likely to win.
72: I may have been living in a fantasy world (probably was) but I remember '04 as closer than this -- it felt like 60/40 odds in Bush's favor, rather than 90/10.
Maybe 2000 left me with a very strict definition of "close."
I don't recall any of the specific data points, but I think it was fairly clear by election day that Kerry wasn't at all likely to win.
It was, but PGD is right that early exit polls showed better than expected results for Kerry, and his odds spiked on intrade betting markets. Which made for some drama. But then he lost and went back to despair.
I cannot fucking concentrate today but I have to.
I was working polls in Ohio in 04 so I was caught up in a big bubble of optimistic optimism.
I think it was fairly clear by election day that Kerry wasn't at all likely to win.
Zogby predicted a Kerry win the night before the election.
What happened to Zogby anyway? You don't hear of him any more.
2004 feels weirdly long ago, because I wasn't yet online in any meaningful sense. NPR and local papers sure made it sound like the election was totally up in the air. Of course, NPR is making this election sound totally up in the air, as well. They're driving me nuts during my commute.
My recollections of 2004 is that leading up to election day the polls were pretty consistent that it would be close but that Bush was favored to win.
I recall numerous theories floated by liberals explaining why the polls were flawed...
Has this link on machines that don't let you vote for Obama been posted yet? Seems unlikely to be actual fraud, considering that it displays what it's doing; still disturbing, though.
Hasn't there usually been an exit poll leak by now?
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In retrospect, I'd have to say that Election Day was not an ideal day, anxiety-wise, for my beloved to have a mastectomy.
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Good luck to the Mrs, President Ford.
On the other hand, you are most likely to have two reassuring outcomes today. Good luck.
Wow, hope recovery goes smoothly and swiftly.
The 2004 exit poll optimism was well-timed to produce maximum scarring for me. I was out canvassing near my house, and came in for a late lunch just after they had leaked and things were looking good (as I recall, Rove even thought they were screwed). Went back out with renewed vigor and optimism, which made getting hit with the reality when I got back home at 8 worse.
In the lead up, I think I could just not get myself to believe that a majority of people would actually vote for the bastard.
In '04 we didn't have the benefit of Nate Silver et al. This looks to be a close election, and the only reason we all feel we know the likely result is that public poll analysis has advanced quite a bit since '04. Rasmussen and Gallup, for example, are calling the popular vote for Romney.
My dad tells me the turnout was higher than he's ever seen before at his local polling place. I have no idea what that means. In context, probably nothing good.
51 Sam Wang's gone all in
I'm just gonna quote that because I had one of those I-am-twelve-years-old-moments.
82 is both completely infuriating and sort of unsurprising.
I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted. I assumed it was being picky so I deselected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney. Being a software developer, I immediately went into troubleshoot mode. I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I deselected her and started at the top of Romney's name and started tapping very closely together to find the 'active areas'. From the top of Romney's button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama's name was all active for Romney. From the bottom of that same checkbox to the bottom of the Obama button (basically a small white sliver) is what let me choose Obama. Stein's button was fine. All other buttons worked fine.
I then called over a volunteer to have a look at it. She him hawed for a bit then calmly said "It's nothing to worry about, everything will be OK." and went back to what she was doing. I then recorded this video.
My memory is that it wasn't at all clear who would win Ohio. I was doing voter protection in south Albuquerque, and by the time we got everything all wrapped up at the precinct, and I got downtown, it was clear that Bush had won Ohio. We ended up losing NM by 6,000 votes (out of 750k cast -- Nader got 4,000) which I thought might happen when I saw the count from my precinct, which we should have won by a much bigger margin.
When do we find out the results of the MA Senate race?
