Re: Waaahhhh.

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I was rather surprised to find out that the Christian Men's Defense Network is actually rather misogynistic. Apparently it was the "slut vote" that gave Obama the edge.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:37 AM
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That's an amazing article. I wish I could read the link about the intersection of sluts and married women.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:39 AM
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YOU'RE WELCOME.


Posted by: OPINIONATED SLUTS | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:39 AM
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2: The URL in that link has the alluring title "so-your-christian-wife-cheated-on-you-part-1"


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:44 AM
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I wonder what the overlap is between the Christian Men's Defense Network and the Pickup Artist community. They seem to have almost identical mentalities. The comments are illuminating.


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:52 AM
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That is an extraordinary article. Such dense thought, but in ways that would never occur to me despite the fact that I think I am the topic of the article. I'm intrigued that I do not operate from reason. It isn't that I have different a prioris, and hence my reasoning goes in different directions. I have different a prioris and then, no subsequent reasoning except to hide the fact that I've fucked the whole football team twice.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:53 AM
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Even the kicker!?


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:54 AM
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2: Cache.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:57 AM
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It would be better if I could react to things like 2 with amusement and jolly schadenfreude, but they just make me miserable, instead.


Posted by: redfoxtailshrub | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:58 AM
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Not to go all ad hairinem but Miriam Adelson, what look are you going for?


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:59 AM
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But you're married, redfox! That makes you one of the good ones.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:59 AM
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Actually, I rather like sluts.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:00 AM
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10: Kajagoogoo?


Posted by: oudemia | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:01 AM
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Parts Two and Three are more rewarding, actually.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:02 AM
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That article is full of that kind of language that refers to stuff as though they're known things or phenomena when I'm pretty sure they're not. But you can always tell what the author means, for instance, "alpha sex."


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:03 AM
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Someone has already linked Ann Coulter's sad little freakout, I presume? And I say, imitating Anne Baxter, "there should be a whole new word for Schadenfreude!"


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:04 AM
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that kind of language that refers to stuff as though they're known things or phenomena

"Rationalization hamster" is a new one to me.


Posted by: L. | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:07 AM
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This guy's depth of emotional intelligence is most impressive:

The first pitfall to avoid is to not fall for any blame-shifting tricks your wife might throw at you. If your experience is true to a common pattern (one I also experienced), she's been telling you for weeks or months that she is "unhaaaaapy" in the marriage, and that you need to change..... In fact, this is exactly what happened to me with my ex-wife.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:09 AM
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Ann Althouse once called Labs a "hypocrisy ferret". That's got to be linked to the rationalization hamster.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:11 AM
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On the white people mourning Romney site, the one that makes me laugh hardest is the conversation about not having a kid now. What, exactly, do they think is going to be different about having a kid in the next four years, versus in the last four years? But cool with me if those idiots don't produce any spawn.


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:12 AM
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This is rich. At least you'll be able to get contraceptives, bitch.


Posted by: mcmc | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:16 AM
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Blume-pwned!


Posted by: mcmc | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:17 AM
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He's one of the cases where I'm pretty sure that he'll live the life he deserves. Constant low grade fear of women, hyper-awareness of loss of privilege, world changing in ways he can't predict or understand, jealousy of richly described alpha men, no closeness with his partner. He's where he should be.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:17 AM
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22: With value-added!


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:18 AM
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That is to say, I hadn't even thought of the contraception angle.


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:19 AM
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25: She's probably just planning to give up sex for four years.


Posted by: mcmc | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:21 AM
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Well, if she's not married, she's surely not having sex anyway.


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:22 AM
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there should be a whole new word for Schadenfreude

Schadenfreugasm.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:25 AM
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The GOP is the emotional tampon of American politics.

I feel like I ought to agree with the sentiment of this statement, but I'm pretty sure the author of it actually meant something that I don't agree with at all. Although I'm not 100% sure I followed the intended meaning.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:02 PM
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"The first pitfall to avoid is to not fall for any blame-shifting tricks your wife might throw at you. If your experience is true to a common pattern (one I also experienced), she's been telling you for weeks or months that she is "unhaaaaapy" in the marriage, and that you need to change..... In fact, this is exactly what happened to me with my ex-wife. "

That guy is writing about what to do if your spouse cheats on you. Probably not a good idea to accept the blame for your spouse cheating on you.


Posted by: lemmy caution | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:12 PM
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The GOP is the emotional tampon of American politics.

The GOP looks like a bloody drowned rat?


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:13 PM
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No, the Bible gives us only one reason that she cheated on you: Lust. Rank, disgusting, vile, perverted lust.

I know I really shouldn't be surprised by this, but: it doesn't actually say that anywhere in the bible.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:25 PM
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32: That's too bad. For a moment there I was excited to read the thing.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:28 PM
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Anyway, on the OP, GOP Tears (linked in the other, long thread) is an even better source of schadenfreude.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:29 PM
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16 & [Big Night:902]:So we're doing OK on lamentations of their women part.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:34 PM
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+the


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:34 PM
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The stillborn Romney transition website is good for some gloating.

Also some Rude Pundit commentary:

Let's kick these fuckers while they're down. Let's degrade them and mock them for not understanding that voters actually give a damn about the nation, unlike the Republican Party. Let's make them feel every ache, every lump, because if we don't, they are going to attempt, again and again, to get up and gut us, like every cliched serial killer in every cheap straight-to-video bullshit flick. You don't walk away when the murderer just looks dead. You cut off his head so that you know he is.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:45 PM
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I want to make it so that decent people respond with a shudder of disgust if you mention FOXNews, Rush Limbaugh or the Republican Party. Hate speech haters who want to use their hate for material and political gain. Sub-scum.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:47 PM
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Decent people do.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:49 PM
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I want to greatly expand the circle of decent people then.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 12:54 PM
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I don't trust Fox News. I was recently googling some sports news story, and the first relevant result was on Fox News. And there's no reason for them to have biased or inaccurate sports coverage. But still, I was skeptical enough that I didn't even read the article, and instead found a different source.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:03 PM
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This one is great!

Mitt Romney planned to celebrate election-night victory with a fireworks display over the Boston Harbor, the Boston Globe reports:
A permit filed with the City of Boston said the detonation could occur any time between 7 p.m. Tuesday, just after the first polls closed, and 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, which ended up being just before Romney conceded the race.
I had not really thought about how much a vote against Romney was a vote to spare Boston these humiliations. But, my God, those dumb fucks really thought they had it. That increases my glee immeasurably.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:04 PM
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Probably not a good idea to accept the blame for your spouse cheating on you.

Well, it might be if your spouse has decided that cheating on you would be the most effective way for them to GTFO of an unhaaaaapy marriage, which, reading between the lines, totally seems to be the case here.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:04 PM
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41: Yes, I hate that so much is on FOXSoccer. Although the Premier League is going somewhere else next year for US broadcasts. I think NBC Sports.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:06 PM
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This seems like the appropriate thread to say that yesterday's xkcd is quite amusing.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:06 PM
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Cheating on a Republican is a blessing in the eyes of the Lord.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:07 PM
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A Christian Man Defender, no less.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:11 PM
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42: I read that and then immediately went to doublecheck how much of Suffolk County Romney won. It was 20%. I assume the percentage was lower in areas that would have had a view of the fireworks. Also they closed down a whole huge section of Fort Point, pissing off no end of wannabe drunk yahoos and the bars they would have patronized.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:12 PM
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But, my God, those dumb fucks really thought they had it. That increases my glee immeasurably.

I don't know why this made me laugh so hard. The mystification and it almost reads like "By jove, those dumb fucks thought they had it!"


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:15 PM
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I think my most favorite response to the election is the guy who keeps saying "sure, Nate Silver got things right, but his model's still screwed if the state polls are wrong" when Silver *explicitly figures that possibility into his model*. Some people you just can't reach.


Posted by: Josh | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:15 PM
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http://minoritiesmourningromney.tumblr.com/

Funny.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:22 PM
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Some people you just can't reach.

I'm told it's right around 47% of the country.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:33 PM
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You can reach them with a hand out.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 1:48 PM
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43: You don't have to read between the lines there. You can just read the lines themselves. His wife told him that "she was "unhaaaaapy," because you don't listen to her, because you don't communicate well, because you don't keep the house clean." But no way could this be the answer. That is just the "tionalization hamster." Really it was "Lust. Rank, disgusting, vile, perverted lust."

Thank god she got out of there.


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:21 PM
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Women! They'll tell you they're unhappy because you "don't communicate" or you "don't keep the house clean" or you "take a crap in the shower and then mash the poo down the drain with your feet." But don't listen to them! It is really just vile lust that makes them stray.


Posted by: OPINIONATED MEN'S DEFENSE GUY | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:27 PM
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Rob Chalk, do you think you have any idea what makes a woman stray?


Posted by: text | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:35 PM
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You can reach them with a hand out.

Man schlägt jemanden mit der Faust und nicht mit gespreizten Fingern!


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:37 PM
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56: So lay some knowledge on us, text. What does make a woman stray?


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:39 PM
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||

Mmmm, grappa.

|>


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:40 PM
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59 to 56.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:42 PM
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Dan Amira is a national treasure.

|>


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:42 PM
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Satan! Satan makes women stray!


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:43 PM
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You can reach them with a hand out.

Need a hand? Look at the end of your arm.


Posted by: bill | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:43 PM
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You have to imagine that sex with Satan would be worth straying for.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:44 PM
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62: Are you sure it's not Mexicans? I could have sworn I heard it was Mexicans.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:46 PM
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What makes a woman stray? Is it the scent of lollipops? The sound of a brook, burbling in the spring? A cool breeze on a summer night? The satisfying conclusion to an absorbing novel? A wrong number? Chicken? Lichtenstein?


Posted by: redfoxtailshrub | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:47 PM
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That's the thing! They have no reason, so they could stray for anything! Any random thing could send them wandering far afield.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:49 PM
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What does make a woman stray?

Step One, Drakkar Noir. Step Two, Vitalogy. Step Three, she's really really angry with her boyfriend.


Posted by: text | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:50 PM
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¡MUY CALIENTE!


Posted by: SEXY MEXICAN SATAN | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:53 PM
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The magnets in their heads that they use for navigation can be disrupted by the fields from power lines.


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:54 PM
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A wrong number? Chicken? Lichtenstein?

It sure as hell ain't Brad.


Posted by: OPINIONATED ROY LICHTENSTEIN | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:54 PM
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What doesn't make a woman stray, you ask?

A date to watch Fast Times At Ridgemont High on your bed. For some crazy reason it doesn't cause amorousness.


Posted by: text | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:54 PM
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Dan Amira is a national treasure.

You're right; that was awesome.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 2:54 PM
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71: It sure as hell ain't Brad.

(Weirdness from Joe Mankiewicz.)


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 3:31 PM
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||

My boss just told me "looking at google images for 'big turd heap' yields the most eclectic set of images".

|>


Posted by: nosflow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 3:34 PM
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I love how the media is not yet "calling" Florida because, I don't know, they're morons. And you now, Flo-ri-da. It was 40K at the end of election night, over 50K now and only the big urban counties are still counting and they collectively went for Obama by over 60%. It's the equivalent of the Rove math for Ohio (which is now at about 104K btw).


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:12 PM
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The cached link in 1 is now down. How does a cache crash? How do you recache a crashed cache?


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:20 PM
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And more evidence that they believed their own bullshit about their chances of winning. As Digby says:

That is he scariest thing I've read about Mitt Romney. My barely sentient neighbor knew that Obama was ahead in all the battleground polls on election day. That he [presumably Romney and not the barely sentient neighbor-JPS] and the very serious wonk Paul Ryan were stunned is yet more proof that these people don't live in the real world. It's one thing to be confident and hopeful, it's quite another to be delusional.
I'm gobsmacked.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:21 PM
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From the Republican Tears site:

If Romney wins tomorrow, none of you are invited to my wedding because I won't be able to have one.

With the election of Obama, that marriage equality clause automatically kicks in and no more straights can get married until there are equal numbers of gay people married.


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:28 PM
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Eh. Wasn't there some good, long article about why Clinton didn't give up in the primaries against Obama? When you're a candidate, for months literally everyone you see all day --and there are tens of thousands of them, think you're going to win. That kind of visual evidence is probably more convincing to our guts than abstract numbers, even for people who understand numbers.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:28 PM
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I'm loving the Florida non-call. Who's relevant now, assholes?


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:39 PM
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80: The issue isn't Romney's delay in conceding, which I think is understandable, but his surprise at defeat. I'm sure Hillary stayed in the race for a long time after she knew the odds were very long against her.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:42 PM
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(We're still counting votes too, apparently. Folded mail-ins won't go through the machines in Billings, and have to be done by hand.)


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:42 PM
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77: I never clicked through so I don't know whether that was a wordpress blog, but my experience has been that if you password protect a wordpress blog, the settings get changed to block search engines. So the google cache may have updated to drop the page.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:43 PM
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Digby is describing something pretty universal to defeated campaigns, it has to be admitted. As the campaign goes into the final stretch and tries to deny or find some way around the adverse-looking numbers, they start believing -- out of sheer desperation -- all their own lines about how "votes win elections, not polls" (I suspected Romney was going down when I heard his camp echoing this signature Kerry line from '04), and how there's "tremendous enthusiasm" for their candidate "on the ground" and how "excitement" and "momentum" are going to swing it for them and so on. Romney's camp is far from unique in falling victim to such wishful thinking.

There was perhaps an unusual amount of pressure on them to indulge that delusion. It was after all Mitt Romney's last chance at the brass ring in politics, and moreover the election that the GOP had (foolishly) bet everything on.


Posted by: Lord Castock | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:58 PM
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Wow: the ranter from electionnight.902 is gay.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 4:59 PM
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I actually don't see what's so wrong with having a celebration planned in case of a win even if you don't think you'll win. It's just contingency planning. Genuinely feeling certain that Romney was going to win is another matter.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:08 PM
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(The transitional site and the fireworks display plans are pretty darned hilarious, though. Especially the transitional site.)


Posted by: Lord Castock | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:11 PM
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I mean there is really just something so poignant about this.


Posted by: Lord Castock | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:22 PM
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"43: You don't have to read between the lines there. You can just read the lines themselves. His wife told him that "she was "unhaaaaapy," because you don't listen to her, because you don't communicate well, because you don't keep the house clean." But no way could this be the answer. That is just the "tionalization hamster." Really it was "Lust. Rank, disgusting, vile, perverted lust.""

According to the guy his wife cheated on him and then gave a list of reasons why she cheated. His marriage was screwed anyway, but what is he supposed do. Say "My Bad, I will clean up the house more next time."? She is the one who cheated.


Posted by: lemmy caution | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:28 PM
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I think that the fallout over Obama's lackluster debate in Denver ended up being what sent Republicans over the edge. Before that, they had pretty much written of this election.

But then, Obama sleep-walked through the debate, and Romney got a big goose in the polls. He got some "momentum" and suddenly Republicans felt that winning the election was within their grasp. They never really accepted it when the polling started to drift back the other way, choosing to accept their "gut instinct" which was, of course, deeply deluded.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:32 PM
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"A Democratic political operative whose name would make you quiver with excitement, if you'd ever heard it, thinks (not for the press, but thinks) that it'll be Kerry with between 300-311 electoral votes. Still, we all watch and wait. "

http://www.unfogged.com/archives/week_2004_10_31.html#002559

November 2004 sucked.


Posted by: lemmy caution | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:38 PM
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I wonder if some people really bought into a mistaken politics-as-sports analogy: if you think the whole campaign is the game, then you'd see that Obama went into election day with a lead. But if you think election day is the game, then you might think that Romney could still have a good day and pull the upset, even though some experts were saying that Obama had the stronger team.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:39 PM
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89: Even more poignant? I sent that link to my girlfriend and she pointed out the photo's from Obama's inauguration.


Posted by: Josh | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:45 PM
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91: A lot of the mainstream media did everything they could to keep him in the game, too, is the other thing. Pushed the "momentum" angle, went on and on about how "close" and "razor thin" and "down to the wire" it was, downplayed Obama's third debate victory as much as they'd played up Romney's first, and so on.


Posted by: Lord Castock | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:56 PM
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94: Heh.


Posted by: Lord Castock | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 5:57 PM
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I'm starting to fear I might overdose on schadenfreude.

"[Romney campaign] aides taking cabs home [from the concession speech] late that night got rude awakenings when they found the credit cards linked to the campaign no longer worked. 'Fiscally conservative,' sighed one aide the next day."


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 6:22 PM
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Jesus Christ, the Nate Silver stuff still hasn't stopped: "We can't tell whether Silver is right or lucky because he didn't project the House, which Republicans won handily. "

Here's a clue: this isn't the first time he's done projections! Maybe you could look at his track record!


Posted by: Josh | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 6:29 PM
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85, 91, 95: I've begun to think this is really a case in which you have to follow the money, in this case the SuperPAC money. Karl Rove's operation apparently took in some $400 million (someone or other in the last day or two thought that the consultant take on this would have been 20%, or $80 million), and that's a lot of incentive for the operation writ large -- campaign consultants plus SuperPACs -- to insist to the bitter end that the result was a great deal closer than every other indicator showed.

The same financial interest might apply to the mainstream media. Drum notes the Romney campaign's alleged habit of paying 50% more for ad buys than the Obama campaign did. [Admittedly, there might have been other reasons for this; word has been that the Obama campaign was buying ad time really early on, months and months ago.]


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 6:47 PM
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99: That may well explain some of the American media patterns. OTOH even non-American media held to much the same patterns; I've see European outlets report Obama's having won "against all odds," for instance.


Posted by: Lord Castock | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 6:58 PM
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The piece linked in 61 is truly hilarious.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 6:59 PM
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Yes, piling on the preparations for the fireworks display is a cheap shot. But I'll take it and fifty more. But per Tweety, the idea that they would be shooting off fireworks in Boston which overwhelmingly voted to defeat him is what makes that form of celebration a classic Romney dick move.

I do understand the need for the creation and maintenance of a bubble, and other campaigns have certainly lost that thought they were going to win before. But 1) the Romney campaign had access to a significant amount of information that it was an uphill battle, and 2) the inner circles of other tight campaigns always seemed to be ready for it to go either way. But I'm done with this particular angle.

(Although I do want to be a fly on the wall for Rove's big donor debriefing call.)


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:10 PM
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Also, PV margin now within 20K of Bush/Kerry.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:11 PM
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I think my favourite moment is the hypothetical:

You require a risky and complicated brain surgery, one that is performed by only two neurosurgeons in the country. One is a Republican and the other is a Democrat . . . Which doctor do you choose?

"Simple: Avoid them both. Go to Mexico for your medical treatment [emphasis mine]. Avoid all the red tape and bureaucracy."

Methinks Dondero's friends and relatives won't have him to kick around much longer.


Posted by: Lord Castock | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:15 PM
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Yeah, I hadnt quite realized that his headquarters were in Boston until I was watching the election night coverage. As much as I hate Boston, shooting off fireworks over the harbor would indeed have been the ultimate dick move. I hope some drunk Celtics fan assholes harassed Romney victory party attendees on the way out.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:16 PM
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102.last: You took the words out of my mouth, virtually verbatim. I'm torn between a grievous case of schadenfraude and something near to pity.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:17 PM
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107

Although if the Lakers win this year (shut up shut up), if I were a billionaire renting out the convention center and setting off fuck you fireworks sounds kind of awesome.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:17 PM
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schadenfreude, that is.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:18 PM
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Yes, piling on the preparations for the fireworks display is a cheap shot. But I'll take it and fifty more. But per Tweety, the idea that they would be shooting off fireworks in Boston which overwhelmingly voted to defeat him is what makes that form of celebration a classic Romney dick move.

Yeah! Take it a few miles north to Salem, New Hampshire. They voted for you there.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:28 PM
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I've been trying to decide what an equivalent dick move on the occasion of Obama's win would be: fireworks in ... Boston? That would be fairly nuanced.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:36 PM
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I recall being annoyed about fireworks in DC in connection with GWB's 2005 inauguration. But, you know, that's where they do that.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 7:48 PM
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I've been trying to decide what an equivalent dick move on the occasion of Obama's win would be: fireworks in ...

Salt Lake City! Celebrating yet another improbable win for Jim Matheson.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 8:05 PM
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I've been trying to decide what an equivalent dick move on the occasion of Obama's win would be

Bongo drums in Highland Park, Texas.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 8:08 PM
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Rap concert in Branson.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 8:16 PM
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Dave Wasserman: "Preliminary: @BarackObama won 77% of counties w/ a Whole Foods, 29% of counties w/ a Cracker Barrel. Gap now 48% (was 44% in '08)"


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 8:34 PM
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110: Fireworks in Provo.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 9:41 PM
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112 to 116.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 9:45 PM
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Holy fuckshit, they unskewed their own internal polls!

As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.
Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 9:59 PM
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118: that is astounding.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:01 PM
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It's really no different than how they approach any other topic. Elections just have a particularly clear cut winner. It's probably the only fact they cant pretend isn't true.


Posted by: heebie-heebie | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:02 PM
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Josh Marshall has an interesting discussion of the issue here.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:02 PM
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(He's somewhat skeptical about the assertions quoted in 118, but not for any very clear reason.)


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:04 PM
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Maybe the Romney campaign should have watched season 3 of The Wire. Although they probably would have come away thinking it was an inspirational story about a white politician.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:09 PM
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122: He says that the second paragraph I quote is so unbelievable to him that it makes him doubt the whole piece ("not in the sense that the article is dishonest but whether what the Romney team claimed here is credible" -JM). And to his point, I did think I saw some reporting when he was branching out that they were realizing that Ohio was going to be a tough nut to crack, so they were looking for other paths to 270.

And in the event, as Nate Silver points out, if you line the states up by % margin it is actually Colorado that put him over 270, then Virginia and then Ohio.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:14 PM
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Has then been much coverage of the fact that Minnesota was surprisingly close (relatively speaking)? And that might have been (this is me speculating) because of the gay marriage proposal on the ballot there?


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:21 PM
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Von Wafer is George Will?


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:21 PM
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117: SLC is a Democratic oasis, comparatively.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:22 PM
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127: Point taken.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:22 PM
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126: no, I think Tony La Russa is overrated.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:25 PM
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125: No, there hasn't been because it really wasn't "surprisingly" close in any true sens of the word. Obama under-performed the polling average by about a point (but he did that in a lot of Heartland states), and the shift from '08 was also in line with the region. Go to the NY Times presidential map and click on the "shifts" link before responding to this comment, please.

Homophobe.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:29 PM
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+e


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:30 PM
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130: thanks. That's what I wanted to know. I only heard a bit about it election night and then nothing more after that. And then I just received an e-mail from a friend in St. Paul, and I didn't know what to say. Still, I'm not sure what the extra "e" in 131 was for.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:33 PM
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My friend is gay, by the way. Some of my best friends are gaye.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:34 PM
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sense


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:37 PM
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Homophobee.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:40 PM
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The world's least tolerant bee.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:40 PM
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Vicodin doesn't seem to kill pain for me, but I do enjoy its other effects.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:45 PM
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Such as?


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:45 PM
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A general feeling of calm and a pleasant floating sensation. It may just be that I've become habituated to the benzos I've been popping like tic-tacs for the past few weeks, so they've lost their potency (sad face), but this stuff, the Vicodin, is making me feel much better than I have for the past few days.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:48 PM
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Such as?

Increased productivity due to infrequent pooping?


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:49 PM
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Or it could be that the election is over, the less bad people won, Prop 30 passed (though now we're still going to stab our students in the back), and the Dems have a 2/3 majority in the legislature.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:51 PM
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I don't see how that would necessarily increase productivity.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:51 PM
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140: does that happen? Maybe I'd better eat an apple or something.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:51 PM
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141: Yeah, I'm finding myself a lot less stressed-out and frustrated now that the election is over.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:52 PM
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overe

Because of the gender gap.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:54 PM
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Heh.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:55 PM
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140: does that happen?

Pretty common with opioids.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:55 PM
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144 belongs in the erection thread.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:56 PM
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And how.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:57 PM
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I don't see how that would necessarily increase productivity.

Perhaps not as much in the era of wifi.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:57 PM
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>3M vote margin, bitches.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:57 PM
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Perhaps not as much in the era of wifi.

And smartphones!


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 10:58 PM
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151: I owe Megan a Coke. Conditions be damned, I owe her a Mexican Coke with crushed ice.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:00 PM
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>3M vote margin, bitches.

Oh hell yes. I'm going to be throwing that around every chance I get.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:02 PM
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Stormcrow, I've been meaning to tell you about this, which is by the same author as this.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:03 PM
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I think you'd probably like this one, too.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:09 PM
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I don't think I noticed Bush's 2004 popular vote margin until this year.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:10 PM
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The book in 156 looks really interesting.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:14 PM
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155, 156: Thanks, I'll put them on my list.

And speaking of history, clean-up needed on aisle 7 of the NYTimes where David Brooks may have dumped his biggest load yet.

I was alerted to it by a tweet from Aaron Bady (retweeted by Scott Lemieux) "Shorter David Brooks: "I've been reading a book called The Rise of the Colored Empires by this man Goddard."

It's incredible in its hacktacularness, but my favorite part may be this:

This creed [established by Protestant dissenters--JPS] shaped America and evolved with the decades. Starting in the mid-20th century, there was a Southern and Western version of it, formed by ranching Republicans like Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:18 PM
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159: is David Brooks denied access to Republican billionaires? I find that hard to believe.

Also, one would think that I'd eventually stop being surprised by the chutzpah, but I never am.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:22 PM
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Sorry, I'm still tripping over the idea of rough-hewn ranching Republicans like George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan. Must be the Vicodin.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:24 PM
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I wonder how many days George Bush has spent clearing brush since his second term ended? Does he even go to Crawford anymore?


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:26 PM
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I'm sure he'd be happy to discuss it with you over a beer.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:30 PM
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Sorry, I'm still tripping over the idea of rough-hewn ranching Republicans like George W. Bush

Definitely time to watch this again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkqrI3IibYI


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:35 PM
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Turns out the final popular electoral vote is an interesting number and not necessarily the one you find. For instance, both NYTimes and CNN have 2008 as 66.8M-something to 58.3M-something, but the official total is 69.4M-59.9M (the extra votes broke over 60% for Obama). Similarly for 2004, the NYTimes still has it (on their map, anyway, they may have the real number somewhere) as 3.5M margin, when it really is 3.012M. In both case the percentages changed by small but noticeable amounts: 2004 originally 51.05 - 48.0, became 50.7 - 48.3, so 3.0% to 2.4%. I assume the news places quit counting sometime in November, while it is actually certified in January.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 8-12 11:39 PM
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My theory is that if the 2000 election had been counted in the standard ways, Florida might well have flipped to Gore. I'm hampered by not knowing when the Times quit updating their counts in each year but:

In 2004, Florida only moved 169 more to Kerry, but Ohio went from 137K Bush margin to 118K (note those margins are about what Obama will probably end up with, Ohio was not that close that year--but still a 19K swing.) In 2008, Obama's margin grew by nealry 32, 000. (Admittedly that might have been due to changes in Florida voting procedures like early voting, provisionals, etc.) But I would not be surprised if standard non-politicized counting clean-up would have moved the vote the required margin.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:07 AM
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154: And now that I look at the detail, I think the margin still has a pretty good run in it. Maybe not 4M, but California alone, probably has at least 2M more ballots to count. I know turnout is down a bit, but 9.4M counted so far for prez in CA, while 13.2M in 2008. Actually, I am going to go out on a limb and say 4M margin with all the provisionals from storms, and Ohio/Florida plus late west coast counting.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:16 AM
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167: Ah, California SOS says slightly more than 3M left to count.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:22 AM
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167: Huh, according to that link Alaska had both the highest increase in Obama vote percentage between 2008 and 2012 (by far) and the largest decline in overall turnout over the same period. Not sure what to conclude about that, but it's interesting.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:22 AM
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The Mat-Su Valley sat this one out.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:27 AM
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169: The 2012 probably still has a lot of uncounted ballots. So don't believe the decline. The Examiner agrees with my analysis, forecasting 4.2M margin. We'll see.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:28 AM
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171: Ah, yes, it looks like they won't count the absentee and questioned ballots until next week.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:35 AM
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They've apparently finished counting regular ballots in Yellowstone County -- last to report -- and Denise Juneau has been reelected. They are still looking at provisionals, though. And anyway, Juneau's opponent has demanded a recount.

Oh, and we're supposed to get a foot or more of snow.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:35 AM
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(At my precinct, provisionals ran about 10%, all for the same reason: lost absentee ballot. I think they counted all of those here on election day. God alone knows what they did over in Billings, though. Well, election officials over there too.)


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:37 AM
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Give Billings to Wyoming.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:45 AM
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They can have the Mat-Su Valley as well.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:47 AM
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Big melons.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:47 AM
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And pumpkins!


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 12:49 AM
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I've see European outlets report Obama's having won "against all odds," for instance.

Maybe they meant he was trying to appeal to swing-state voters by serenading them with Phil Collins songs. (Obama to Ohio: "How can you just walk away from me?")


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 1:17 AM
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Republicans provide a case study in how not to roll out software.

"Nice act you got there what do you call it?"
"Project ORCA."


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 7:58 AM
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You're just gaining them sympathy. Everybody has lived through a bad software rollout.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 8:05 AM
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180: boy, chairs were a real problem for them this cycle.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 8:15 AM
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"I have a lawn chair, but it's hanging from a tree in my yard by a noose in a way that is totally not racist."


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 8:17 AM
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182: I'm also imaging Steve Martin shuffling down the street with his chair in The Jerk.

I don't need one other thing, not one... I need this. - The paddle game and the chair, and the remote control, and the matches for sure.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 8:26 AM
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Ah, it was on the movie poster. Republican poll watcher en route to the polling place.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 8:30 AM
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Ace o' Spades = ick, but the link in 180 is very much worth reading.

Remember: Romney would have run the country efficiently! Like a businessman! Not like the unqualified, pretender-to-the-throne (sneer) community organizer.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 8:52 AM
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via Naked Capitalism

Richard Kline analyzes the election demographics. Urban Blue vs Rural Red. You'll like it. Also: what Digby has long said.

Urban Blue has largely ignored the present antipathy of Rural Red because it's nothing new and in the past ignoring glares from the sticks worked. The rural vote was split between parties and could be bribed or worked around. But now that all the rural vote is in one party which it controls, that's no longer the situation. Urban Blue needs to sit down and have a long conversation amongst itself regarding how they are going to govern. That is my view. Notwithstanding the machinations of the 'wealthy 1% against all' Urban Blue have a narrow, slow-growing but reliable minority, but share a country with a large population which patently dislikes them and isn't about to cooperate. I'm not going to advance a pat list of solutions or objectives. First of all, there isn't a clear course or program that I can see. But secondly, Urban Blue hasn't decided to fight back but rather has voted and programmatically proceeded in a defensive manner to this point. Red is offensive but short of the votes to rule while Blue is defensive and has diversity rather than purpose.

To me, the message of the 2012 election is that Urban Blue and Rural Red (more or less) are solid, divergent factions. The cultural divides are more relevant than the putative party organizations, any specific policy, the gyrations of 'the economy,' or the ephemera of discrete events. Yes, all of the latter are meaningful, but none of them are decisive. Diverse Urban Blue and white Rural Red definitively delimit the landscape we live in going forward.

Last I checked Dallas Co went 57% Obama. Texas looks like Kline says, islands of blue in a sea of red, except for blue along the Rio Grande.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:23 AM
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186.2: I was just thinking that he probably basically did run the campaign like one of the businesses he bought; he let everything go to hell and then he fired everybody.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:26 AM
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186: Yes, I first saw it last night and did not link because of being the Ace. But in the end it was too good to pass up.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:28 AM
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187: My first targets: FOXNews and Republican Hate Radio. Get the "decent", churchgoing folks moving in the direction to where they are literally disgusted by the hate spewing forth every day.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:34 AM
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Is there any cult less deserving than that of the MBA?


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:39 AM
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187: Also a good link! Pretty much agrees with my pre-election take: "[M]y sense is that this is basically a cultural election rather than an issues/economic one. People are on one team or the other and all the advertising in the world isn't going to change their team."

To be honest, I'm squarely in the fuck-the-Rural-Red camp. They've been agitating for a culture war for years. Well, let's have at it, then.

The old get old, and the young get stronger.
May take a week, and it may take longer.
They got the guns, but we got the numbers.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:42 AM
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187:Yes, I forget if I mentioned or linked to the Cracker Barrel county vs. Whole Foods county stuff here. (Yes, some counties have both--he takes that into account.)

From this guy Dave Wasserman who's a good twitter follow.

"The Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap was 20% in 1992, 25% in 1996, 32% in 2000, 41% in 2004, 44% in 2008, 48% in 2012."

"I'd argue the 48% Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap is more difficult long-term GOP quandary than @MittRomney's 47% problem. WF growing faster."


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:51 AM
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He works at Cook Political. $350 annual subscription and at times i am tempted. (But those times cluster around Presidential elections.)


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:54 AM
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@169

No clue about the shift? Are you kidding? Sarah Palin was VP candidate in 2008. (Romney is an exception to the home state enthusiasm advantage because the factory in China which produced him is unable to vote in US elections.)

To celebrate, I've spent the past few days drinking whiskey cokes and reading the National Review. I've enjoyed immensely the move from general wailing to the circular firing squad.


Posted by: Britta | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 1:53 PM
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Sarah Palin was VP candidate in 2008.

Yeah, that probably did play a role (although her subsequent actions appear to have made pretty much everyone in the state hate her). In any case, while there are still some ballots left to count, it does appear that turnout was significantly lower than in 2008.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 9-12 9:19 PM
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This thread ended too soon. I get to gloat until Monday. BTW, CNN finally called Florida 15 minutes ago based on on votes in by some noon deadline the state had. Margin there at 74K now, up from 40K on election night (zero surprise that that was the direction it went). Nationally 3.2M or 3.3M depending on source. But a buttload of west coast votes still to count.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-10-12 11:20 AM
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And Eggplant, seriously, e-mail me if you want my little dump of info on vote counting past and present.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-10-12 11:22 AM
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Sent! That completely slipped my mind.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11-10-12 11:35 AM
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Is there any cult less deserving than that of the MBA?

Well, no, but it's my best shot at becoming a charismatic leader.


Posted by: Sir Kraab | Link to this comment | 11-10-12 11:52 AM
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197: The by-county Florida patterns were somewhat interesting and confounded the usual % shift/bellwether county prediction approach on election night. As several here noted, usual bellwether Hillsborough County (Tampa) did come in pretty early and strongly for Obama at a 6.6% margin, but that runs well ahead of Obama's current statewide 0.9% margin in contrast to 2008 when it was 2.4% and the state was 2.5%. Palm Beach County, which also posted most of it numbers relatively early, told a quite different story with significant decrease in support (in the end its margin for Obama came down 30K) of the same magnitude as most of the Florida counties. In the end it was Miami-Dade which increased its Obama margin from 140K to 210K that sealed the deal (the other big SE county, Broward, helped as well upping its margin by 10K).

Per this great graphic bob posted here earlier, the general demographic shifts appear to have been magnified somewhat in Florida. And I suspect the Palm Beach County results were in part due to the small, but measurable shift towards Romney among Jewish voters.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-11-12 5:47 AM
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And let me reiterate my annoyance at the general mainstream media trope of "ZOMG, so close to another Florida debacle, thank God that Ohio got called" that I have heard several times.

1) Florida was not all that close, easily callable on election night and at that time barely within the 0.5% Florida automatic recount margin. Since then Obama's lead has--very predictably--grown to 70K/0.9% based on which counties were not done counting.

2) In the end even without Ohio, Florida did not matter. Nor did Virginia. Obama could have lost all 4 of NC, Florida, Virginia and Ohio and still won narrowly. It was infuriating in the days leading up to the election to continue to hear the media be all "it comes down to Florida, Ohio & Virginia" without them noting "and Romney would have to win them all" (and per above turns out that would not have been enough).

Just working on my "It was not a squeaker" narrative during coming political battles. I'm also hoping (and predicting*) that Ohio's margin for Obama in the end exceeds NC's for Romney so NC will be the second closest state.

*Assuming that a good portion of the 200K provisional ballots in Ohio get counted.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-11-12 5:59 AM
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One last note. Am beginning to see a fair bit of pushback on the "Romney/Ryan were sure they were going to win" narrative based on some info such as the actual R internal polls. Hypothesis is that the "we were just as stunned as you" stance is to avoid pissing off the big money guys who assumed they were getting the real inside scoop.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-11-12 6:02 AM
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