Re: Elections

1

The last election, ogged came back.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 5:57 PM
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Like all election threads, this one will inevitably be better if you mentally substitute "erection" for each occurrence of the word.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:02 PM
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It will be even better if you physically substitute an erection for each occurrence.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:04 PM
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4

I still have a bunch of shit I need to do so I let Mrs. K-sky drop off our absentee ballots at the polling place. I'm a little sad that I'm not taking Φ in for a cute system-affirming selfie, and dreading 2016 when I have to square the circle of having a 3-year-old daughter with Having Mixed Feelings About Girl President. Lefty parents of daughters, should we start our support group now?


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:10 PM
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Congratulations, Pennsylvanians, on ridding yourself of America's 3rd worst blue state governor.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:13 PM
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4: Supporting Obama over Hillary in 2008 already did enough damage to my marriage. When she runs in 2016 I'm not going to have much wiggle room.


Posted by: widget | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:16 PM
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5: I'll take all the credit, thanks.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:16 PM
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It's been years since I've been there but every election year I used to go back to Eschaton to spawn live-comment.

So are we fucked yet or what?


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:17 PM
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8: we are always already fucked.


Posted by: Josh | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:19 PM
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Is anybody other than Hillary running? Do candidates usually wait until after the mid-terms to announce/ openly explore?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:33 PM
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I'm a little sad that I'm not taking Φ in for a cute system-affirming selfie

That worked out all right, actually.


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:42 PM
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Why the fuck is Virginia close? That wasn't even supposed to be in play!


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:43 PM
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12: Word. It will be ironic if Kay Hagan finishes stronger than Warner.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:49 PM
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I hate that the local news is already reporting all of the local (ok, all of New England) races with 0-2% reporting. It's not sophisticated exit-poll analysis; it's just junk.


Posted by: Nathan Williams | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:49 PM
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6: Same here. I'm going to have a really tough time explaining my vote for Bernie Sanders, or whomever. Even if Elizabeth Warren runs, I'm gonna have some 'splainin' to do.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:50 PM
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11: Nice poster behind her there.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:53 PM
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16: Thanks. Came in a three-pack a while back.


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:56 PM
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(it was a gift to my ex, who worked on the show in 1998 or so. Disregard the price tag at that page.)


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:57 PM
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What website are y'all watching for returns? The NPR station here has a good site for MA, but its national stuff isn't very in depth.


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 6:57 PM
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No votes are in yet, but keep an eye on Maine House District 139 (halfway down the page).

My sister is the Democrat. She's the incumbent - and seems to have campaigned her ass off - but its a pretty red district.

Fun fact: its also the easternmost legislative district in the United States. At least until Puerto Rico comes on board.


Posted by: Sp!ke | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:01 PM
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20: Good luck to your sister. My BIL lost in the last gubernatorial election, and though I can't stand his politics, he'd still have been better than the loathsome LePage.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:07 PM
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Upshot blog?


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:08 PM
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LePage is indeed loathsome.

MOAR GIN!


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:10 PM
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It looks like LePage is going down, partly because of the snow storm.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:14 PM
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Who has been the most loathsome Governor over the past few years? I'm thinking the finalists have got to include LePage, Scott Walker, Lord Voldemort.... who am I missing?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:14 PM
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My dad ran for state house at request of his state party org. Against a couple of teabillies. Going to get crushed because of the locale, but still glad for him.


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:14 PM
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Out of gin, but at least I have wine. This is a shitshow. Amerika is devouring its children.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:15 PM
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This is why I live in exile.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:15 PM
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Folks will remember from last time that in Virginia, Dem areas get counted later.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:15 PM
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25: dude... It is a longgg list


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:17 PM
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Upshot adjusts the Virginia results to get Warner at +1.2%.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:17 PM
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32

Chris Christie is a special kind of loathsome. I think there needs to be a tournament bracket for this.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:18 PM
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Colorado is pink on the map. Why is Colorado pink? Colorado should not be pink.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:22 PM
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34

Woooooooah LePage is comically awful.


Posted by: Keir | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:23 PM
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35

Having a tough time finding non loathsome govs. I have nostalgia for Kitzhaber but he's been riding that shit into the ground.


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:24 PM
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Coakley barely beating Baker in PDBS, where she should be crushing. I conclude she's fucked.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:27 PM
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19: What website are y'all watching for returns?

Actually, The Guardian's live blog is best suited for me, since I want an overview.

DKos Elections, which has basically taken over their front page for tonight, is decent. TPM is a little too chatty for my needs.

Isn't there some place that just tracks results as they come in? I may go over to television.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:28 PM
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36: Shit. I told you guys that somebody I know, who voted for Berwick and who supports all the ballot initiatives that Baker opposes, was thinking about voting for Baker.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:35 PM
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Alright. My sister is up 372 to 349. One out of eight precincts reporting. She's supposed to need about 2000 votes to win.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:35 PM
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1: yeah, and just look at all this fucking cargo.


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:37 PM
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You know, its too bad Mitch McConnell won, but I'm not sorry Grimes lost. Democrats for Coal is bullshit.

New Hampshire's been held. That's nice. Technically, its now my home state.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:38 PM
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41.last: you and Scott brown.


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:39 PM
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38: At least we can still be smug about our all-Democratic Congressional delegation, with Seth Moulton's win in MA-06.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:39 PM
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44

Re-elected Ohio Governor John Kasich: Also loathsome.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:40 PM
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35 Steve Bullock's a pretty good guy.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:41 PM
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I'll be damned, Coakley was briefly in the lead on WBUR's election returns site. Unfortunately, I don't see anywhere that shows how the candidates are performing against benchmarks or projects where the outstanding vote is coming from in that race.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:42 PM
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Lamar Alexander is still around???


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:43 PM
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48

35: Yeah, I'm hoping Kitzhaber enjoys one more term and lets someone else have the time to step up. He got lucky having a weak opponent this time around.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:43 PM
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There's a Senate election in Vermont in a couple years. Maybe Scott Brown could run there.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:46 PM
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48: I really don't know state politics there anymore,though, so I deeply fear e.g. beaverton or the ghost of gordon smith.


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:47 PM
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46: Aren't Democratic areas usually the last to report?


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:47 PM
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52

Brown should keep going north, and run in Quebec.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:47 PM
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49: TPM beat you to that one.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:48 PM
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54

What happened in Virginia? That seems like an awful huge error for the polls.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:50 PM
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I just do via twitter Dkos/Taniel etc. etc.r. Rare good news: Arkansas minimum wage hike approved nearly 2 to 1.

Predictable bad news: Udall looks like toast in Colorado. But at least "personhood" losing there.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:53 PM
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If Brown can't win in New Hampshire, no way is he going to win in Vermont. Maine, maybe.

48: If the GOP could come up with another Gordon Smith type, as they almost did with Chris Dudley four years ago, they could make a serious play.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:53 PM
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NMM to Massachusetts Question 2 (FORCED! deposits on bottled water).


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:53 PM
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54: Seemingly without a meaningful race Dems cannot get voters out...


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:54 PM
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An apparently meaningful race. If Fairfax does not turn out it could happen for the dick.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:55 PM
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The Upshot's graphs are really cool. It's pretty impressive how quickly their estimate seem to be stabilizing.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:56 PM
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boston.com "Baker asks Patrick to discuss transition while polls still open."

God, I almost want him to lose just because of his arrogance.

Could Grossman have beat him with hsi record as treasurer?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:56 PM
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So the 372 to 349 was in the town where my sister lives. It was supposed to break a bit better for her. This could be rough.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:57 PM
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Gee, maybe compelling forthright candidates matter? Franken goes from protracted recount to easy victor.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:58 PM
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63: Incumbency helps too.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:58 PM
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Rare good news: Arkansas minimum wage hike approved nearly 2 to 1.

Goddamn if that shit can win in Arkansas. Why can't Democrats run on some proper economic populism for a change? Grrr.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 7:59 PM
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64: Tell that to Udall.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:01 PM
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66: Tom's doing great.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:01 PM
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Polls just closed in Iowa. Now we see just how bad this bloodbath gets.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:03 PM
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Boy, what a horrorshow Kentucky senate race turned out to be.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:03 PM
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Aren't Democratic areas usually the last to report?

Sort of. There are a lot of Dem towns that report early. However, Boston reports last, and that's where the biggest block of votes is. It should ordinarily be worth 4-5 points of margin for the Dems, assuming good turnout and a decent margin of victory. Except Coakley underperformed in the 2010 special election, only netting about 3 points from the late reporting cities. Right now the race looks close enough that it could be enough to put her over the top, so I may have despaired too soon.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:05 PM
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NYT is calling a runoff in Louisiana. Sure will be fun to go through another month of this.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:06 PM
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71 -- Republicans will win the Senate without La. I'd guess that seriously dampens interest in that race.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:08 PM
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Thanks---I knew of 51 as a truism, but wasn't sure how it applied in Mass.


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:08 PM
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The Greatest Country on Earth™: Where the fate of the world rests with the shitheads who vote and the fuckstains who don't bother.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:09 PM
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La. is just going to draw out the pain. We all know the inevitable outcome of that.

I've switched to beer. Banks Beer. Did you know Barbados makes shitty beer?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:11 PM
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Seriously, WTF Virginia?


Posted by: MAE | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:11 PM
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Did Orman really commit to caucusing with the GOP if they win a majority? That seems like the sort of thing the Democrats should have gotten some assurances about before withdrawing their own candidate.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:13 PM
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Ugh. Now my sister is down 743 to 696. That's just not good.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:15 PM
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the fuckstains who don't bother

Fuck those lazy fucks. That's your "American Exceptionalism" right there.


Posted by: MAE | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:15 PM
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41: yes, as much as I'd love to see McConnell gone, Grimes was terrible. Terrible.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:16 PM
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Coakley now holds a small lead, and FWIW, Blue Mass Group claims she is winning in the "bellwether" towns. Of course, I would gladly feed Martha Coakley to hyenas in exchange for Senate seats in Colorado and Iowa.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:17 PM
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77: Of course he can switch back in two years if the D's can pick up a seat or two.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:18 PM
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D's can pick up a seat or two.

Or five.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:19 PM
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Apparently Walker projected to win... Hagan will really have to win Mecklenburg (Charlotte) big to come back, and I think Warner squeaks in. Pretty much a mess.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:19 PM
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The Colorado race is depressing. I figured that in a state like Colorado once a good democrat got in, they'd just be able to cruise on incumbency. But it doesn't even look like that race is going to be all that close. What happened?


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:19 PM
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86

Narrative will be Dems need to "moderate" more.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:20 PM
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82: Right, and as Josh Marshall notes caucusing with them doesn't mean he actually has to vote with them. It still seems weird, though.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:20 PM
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North Carolina is now pink. It was supposed to be light blue! WTF?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:20 PM
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At this rate no one's even going to care about the Alaska results when they come in.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:22 PM
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Narrative will be Dems need to "moderate" more.

Fuck narratives. Narratives had Obama campaigning for the already sewn-up Pennsylvania Governor's race this weekend, instead of in a place that mattered. Narratives must be ignored.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:22 PM
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77 The Dem was not going to win, no matter what.

I guess we always knew Amanda wasn't going to win -- hell, Max wasn't looking all that good, if he'd wanted to try again. Good news, though, is that the very early results -- which skew Republican, I think -- are showing defeat for the Koch/Stanford Supreme Court candidate, and for the Republican sponsored ballot measure to get rid of same day registration.

Nothing's been counted in the legislative races my friends are running in.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:25 PM
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The Dem was not going to win, no matter what.

Of course, but his dropping out helped Orman a lot, and it would have been good for the party to have used that as leverage to get something in return.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:27 PM
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It's all going to shit now. Looks like Crist held in Fla. Ernst declared in Iowa (by a local station)... others as well.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:27 PM
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93: Heard that the Dems might not have come out in South Florida.

Warner might eke out a victory in VA.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:28 PM
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It's all going to shit now

Not as long as we have Coakleymentum!


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:29 PM
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86 There isn't going to be a narrative about Dems. Just drooling over McConnell and Boehner, and how the country has completely rejected Obama. He just needs to stand up to them.

OK, some more votes counted, and a couple of friends are in closer races than hoped. Glad I'm not down at the union hall chewing on fingernails with everyone else.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:32 PM
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Times calls Colorado for Gardner.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:34 PM
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92 I doubt they could have gotten anything binding from him, and anyway, parties don't drop out, candidates do.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:35 PM
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96: We'll see. But glad we finally taught that Obama feller. I really should shut down twitter and internet in general and catch up on my desperately behind work...


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:35 PM
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98: Yeah, fair enough.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:35 PM
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101

CC, your prediction on impeachment proceedings?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:35 PM
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102

I still can't believe that someone named "Cory" is old enough to run for the Senate.


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:36 PM
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And now saying no runoff in Ga.. Perdue outright...


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:37 PM
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93- AP called FL for He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Prosecuted


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:37 PM
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104: George Zimmerman ran for office?


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:41 PM
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No, that's He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Convicted


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:42 PM
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107

It would be funnier if George Zimmer ran for office.


Posted by: Otto Von Bisquick | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:43 PM
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I'm sure Zimmerman will run for governor of Florida at some point. He'll probably win, too.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:43 PM
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Everybody I voted for today won. The rest of you didn't want it bad enough.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:43 PM
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20: Neat! My uncle's girlfriend is running unopposed for selectperson in their small Maine city. She's pretty awesome, so it's nice that she will win.

Results here are looking mixed. Not surprisingly, 6th district minus Bachmann is staying Republican. Pretty worried about the governor's race though. Dayton only won by 9,000 votes last time, and his opponent is some kind of stealth-Scott Walker type. A big Republican switchover in St Paul would be disastrous. Also bizarre, as the Republicans here have not been able to find their ass with both hands for several years now.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:46 PM
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Otto!


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:46 PM
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112

I suspect Democrats could have done better this year if they'd had some sort of coherent strategy.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:47 PM
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113

It would be most funny if Invader Zim ran for office.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:47 PM
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114

Well, at least now we'll be protected from Ebola and ISIS.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:47 PM
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This day in history: George Prescott Bush is elected as part of the next generation of leaders.


Posted by: Econolicious | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:48 PM
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EBOLA, ISIS, BENGHAZI -- REMEMBER WHEN SCANDALS WERE AMERICAN?


Posted by: OPINIONATED GRANDMAW | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:49 PM
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112: Like maybe don;t run away so fast from the President...


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:50 PM
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112: Like maybe don;t run away so fast from the President...


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:50 PM
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119

I guess it's a sign of how much academia has warped me that at the moment I'm more agitated about people working on stuff super closely related to what I've been doing inexplicably not citing my papers than about Republicans retaking the Senate. Or maybe that just means I'm more resigned to the awfulness of politics politics than career politics.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:51 PM
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My boss is keeping his job. Not that anything else was likely, of course. He's not bad, and the alternative is a Republican.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:51 PM
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121

Seriously. If they don't hang together, they hang separately.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:51 PM
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122

112 to every election I can remember.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:53 PM
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And tomorrow I have to try to convince a bunch of string theorists that my career won't suddenly implode if experiments fail to turn up new things to confirm my ideas within the next few years. The temptation to just bring along a mirror and hold it up to them is pretty strong.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:53 PM
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I was having such a nice fantasy the other day about how Repugs would take the Senate, but then lame-duck Obama would just call every one of their bluffs and refuse to sign anything at all. But, of course, such things can never be in our wonderful oligarchy of small differences.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:53 PM
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125

Brown gaining on Shaheen. Fuck.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:55 PM
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126

Now that Republicans are in charge of the Senate, I don't imagine that the 60 vote filibuster rule is long for this world.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:56 PM
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127

Fucksticks.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:57 PM
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128

We should place bets on the date that the Senate passes the Gut Obamacare Act.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:59 PM
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129

Is Le Page really going to win in Maine. Very sad.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:59 PM
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130

129 was I.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 8:59 PM
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131

White People Gone Wild.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:01 PM
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132

I'm not sure I understand what I'm looking at, but I think the Democrats solidified control of the NY state senate. So, something?


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:02 PM
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Gonna be a lonely fucking two years for the Obamameister. Vetomatic if the filibuster goes.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:02 PM
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122: 2006 was all right.


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:03 PM
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135

The evil Walker won re-election in Wisconsin.

Is it possible to believe that unions are deader than I thought before?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:03 PM
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136

How about bets for when impeachment proceedings begin.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:04 PM
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See, I think 112 and 118 are just dead wrong. There are no magic words Udall could have used to hold his seat. His coalition includes a bunch of people who don't vote in midterms. And there states have a bunch of people upset about Obama, no matter what he says or does. Ditto Hagan.

It's not like Obama or Reid, or anyone else, could have gone to Colorado and talked their way to a better result. Or North Carolina.

Neither Udall nor Hagan could promise a single damn thing, since the House was always going to stay Republican. What you asking for is better smoke and mirrors -- smoke and mirrors good enough to get people who aren't really wound up to go vote.

Second midterm is often brutal. 2006, 1986 had Dem takeovers of the Senate. 1998 didn't because Republicans already had the Senate. You guys with you 'Dems blew it' are just as reality challenged as the pundits with their 'America has rejected Obama.' We had a bad map, and the sun rose in the east.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:05 PM
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Two Corys in this Senate.


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:05 PM
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The Minimum Mandatory CO2 Emissions Act of 2015 is gonna be a real doozy.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:06 PM
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137 gets it exactly right.


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:06 PM
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135: Yeah, this will probably embolden a few state legislatures & governors. I don't know who that is that hasn't yet been emboldened.

Also it means Walker'll probably lose an election to Hillary Clinton in the near future. Although never underestimate the speed at which a Republican front-runner can burn out. Your take is more meaningful.


Posted by: k-sky | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:08 PM
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138: My God, you're right! Although Cory #1 is older than I thought.


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:11 PM
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Well, my sister had gone to bed, which is not a good sign. I'm going to bed too.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:11 PM
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137: I feel like the Dems blew it in MA. Couldn't we have put forward a better candidate than Martha Coakley?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:13 PM
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137, 1540: Fuck that shit. Stand for something and lose like a mensch. A disgrace.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:14 PM
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Walker'll probably lose an election to Hillary Clinton

Pod people all the way down.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:14 PM
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His coalition includes a bunch of people who don't vote in midterms.
You know, this isn't some natural law. No campaign tactics would've helped but they've really done a great job defusing any movement building energy.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:15 PM
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145: What do you mean by 1540?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:17 PM
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140


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:18 PM
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Okay, so if there is some essential quality of "people who don't vote in midterms" why do we have so many fewer of them here in Minnesota?


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:18 PM
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My next task fir tonight is to fill in my "year end" accomplishments. I am possibly not in the best psychological and emotional state to do that in an appropriate and professional manner. (And not been that great of a year professionally, either.)

I hate everybody and everything. Road trip?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:20 PM
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I am interested in apparent nationwide poll bias for Dems.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:21 PM
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And thank goodness, it looks like Dayton retained the governorship. We're probably screwed every other way though. Sigh.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:22 PM
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You think Pryor, Hagan and Udall don't stand for something? Really? I didn't follow their campaigns, but I did follow Curtis. She's on the right side of every issue, and Daines, the winner, is wrong on every issue.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:23 PM
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If you road trip out here, I could introduce you to quite a few DFL activists. And we could have some garlic mashed potato pizza. That would be fun.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:23 PM
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Moby neglected to mention in 109 that two of the three races we could vote on were unopposed. But this is the first election where everyone I've voted for won, so that's neat. I guess.

PA House delegation is the same as it was last time: 13 red, 5 blue. A shitty deja vu which reminds me that I've been commenting here for over two years.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:27 PM
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144: MA will be close enough that a better candidate could've won. Not sure that's true of many of the other races tonight.


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:27 PM
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Let's just say that I rather vehemently disagree with how one communicates those things effectively as a national party during an election. I also think you (like many lawyers) overestimate the degree of rationality that people bring to their voting choices.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:28 PM
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Initial election results for the local races aren't good. A couple of races which I'd thought were close are 55:45 for the Republican right now.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:29 PM
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Ugh. An acquaintance posted this on FB:

Discouraged, briefly. Turn off the newswire and hear the rain fall. Quietly, in the dark, know things are exactly as they are supposed to be, though the path steepens.

Practically makes me want to go mcmanus on her ass.


Posted by: Sir Kraab | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:30 PM
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Why the fuck did only 1/3 of Boston voters vote. That could have been the margin of error.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:30 PM
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Quite low, but maybe it is typical for a midterm election?


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:31 PM
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For the Senate, I'm less concerned about the next 2 years than the diminished chances for Dem majority after that. 6 years of Pryor, Ernst and Tillis.

Also the 'ratification" of Republican governance in Florida/Kansas/Wisconsin and probably Maine. That is where the real boost to the ACA could have come.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:33 PM
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162: The Secretary of State was predicting 52.5% overall.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:35 PM
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161: See, that's what I'm saying. We only had 1 seriously contested race here, plus a couple of low-intensity ballot measures, and I'm sure we'll have at least 50% turnout for the city of Minneapolis. Boston is just as, if not more, Democratic, educated, liberal, etc. Demographics are a bit different, but still, I don't think you can chalk these differences in turnout up to some random or arbitrary set of circumstances. We have a political culture here that really prioritizes high election turnout. Admittedly, one thing that helped historically, was that our Republicans were less evil, but that's not really the case anymore.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:36 PM
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158 -- Do national parties even exist? As an entity that can communicate? I think it's all way too diffuse for that. You may say that's the problem -- and sure, if we were organized better we'd be better organized. But there's no central authority, I don't think, that could have said something to people in Colorado or North Carolina or Arkansas that would have changed anything.

But you're the one griping: who is supposed to have said what? The President? Incumbents were begging him to stay away, and they weren't wrong about the political import in places like those states.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:37 PM
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163: Fuck a bunch of LePage winning. Maine deserves Medicaid expansion. (So does everyone, but it's extra painful to me to see a lone hold out in New England.)


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:37 PM
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The LePage thing is just bizarre. What a complete asshole and incompetent. Makes Scott Walker look like Hubert Humphrey. Maine has some real problems.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:41 PM
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What pisses me off, is that the Democrats don't know how to bear a grudge. It was only last year that the House GOP shut down the government. And what about those Tea Party lunatics? I don't remember signing a truce with those #@$!s. I don't care if Obama's second term hasn't given me much to vote for, I've still got things to vote against.


Posted by: torrey pine | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:42 PM
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David Frum had a great tweet. "Is tonight's takeaway that Republicans do great when voter turnout drops below 38%?"


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:43 PM
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163.1 -- The Senate map for 2016 looks pretty good: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c2/Competitive_2016_Senate_seats.png


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:43 PM
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I think I knew some Democrats who supported the Independent. They definitely voted for King, and I know that they would fall into line to defeat LePage, but they liked Cutler.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:47 PM
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Ticket splitting, in this day and age, makes no goddamn sense at all.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:49 PM
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NPR seems to be going with the narrative of a structural Republican advantage this election, rather than a blowout story, and suggesting that Republicans have an incentive to work with Obama. Weird.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:54 PM
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I'll vote straight dem--unless a Ravenstahl is running--but I'm never selecting the vote-a-straight-party-ticket line. Let me have my dignity.

But no goddamn sense at all indeed. Abolish first-past-the-post.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:54 PM
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I am interested in apparent nationwide poll bias for Dems.

This might be related to the nationwide vote suppression bias for Dems.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:57 PM
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I'm not looking forward to the media treating whatever immigration bill the Republicans concoct as a good faith effort at reform.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 9:59 PM
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176, JP: The media has done a fantastic job of scaring the bejesus out of the voters, which may interfere with any projections based on likely voter models.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 10:08 PM
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Polls close in Alaska! Not that anyone else cares now.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 10:08 PM
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Alaska results here for anyone who does care.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 10:14 PM
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Connecticut Dem is ahead by only 7 votes.

No info on the Alaska ballot initiative(s)?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 10:25 PM
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Bah, looking not great in MA. And only 1 for 4 on the ballot initiatives, though arguably the most important one (sick days).


Posted by: Nathan Williams | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 10:33 PM
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Bizarrely, not only is the governor's race close enough that a third-party candidate could be considered a spoiler, but the other two third-party candidates together would also count that way.


Posted by: Nathan Williams | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 10:37 PM
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No info on the Alaska ballot initiative(s)?

What sort of info do you want?


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 10:46 PM
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Anyway, there are three statewide initiatives:

Ballot Measure 2: Legalizes marijuana
Ballot Measure 3: Raises the minimum wage
Ballot Measure 4: Requires legislative approval of large mines in the Bristol Bay area

(Ballot Measure 1 was on the primary ballot. It would have repealed recent changes to the oil tax system passed by the legislature. It failed.)

There's also an Anchorage municipal ballot question that appeared on the state ballot (for Anchorage voters) by special arrangement. It confirms recent changes the assembly made to the city's labor laws that weakened union power.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 11:14 PM
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You can probably guess how I voted on all of those. I have no idea what the overall results will be.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 11:15 PM
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Results are starting to come in. With 28% reporting, Sullivan is leading Begich by a narrow margin, but Walker is leading Parnell by a much narrower margin. All the state initiatives show "Yes" in the lead; "No" is leading on the Anchorage initiative. The precincts that have reported so far seem to be largely in more conservative areas.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 11:34 PM
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It will be very weird if Begich and Parnell both lose, but Alaska politics is weird in general.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 11:36 PM
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Current figures show my state house rep losing by 1 vote. The newspaper is acting like that's it, but I think they're still counting. One vote is pretty tough.

Her husband is running for justice court. He's getting beaten by 5 points or so.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 11:56 PM
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185: I was curious about the marijuana one. I'm also interested in learning more about the minimum wage one.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 11:58 PM
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Coakley clearly lost. Damn it.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 4-14 11:59 PM
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190: The marijuana one is closely modeled on the Colorado law. There's been a heavy focus on how it regulates and taxes marijuana in addition to just legalizing it, including explicit references to how this is analogous to how the state treats alcohol. The main organization pushing it is actually officially called "The Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol in Alaska."

The minimum wage one raises the minimum wage from $7.75 currently to $8.75 in 2015 and $9.75 in 2016, adjusted for inflation after that, unless that adjustment results in a minimum wage less than $1 over the federal minimum wage, in which case it will be set at $1 over the federal level.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 12:05 AM
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At a bar IL listening to local repub complaint den supermajority will prevent them from wrecking state even with R gov. Haha eat it


Posted by: Asteele | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 12:12 AM
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Up to 55% with no real change in the overall patterns. The Senate race may still come down to Begich's ground game in the Bush, which has been the subject of many articles in the national media but still needs to be proven.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 12:26 AM
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The most surprising race for me is Brownback. Kansas' economy is fucked, and it's directly Brownback's fault.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:13 AM
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78%, still no major changes.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:22 AM
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They seem to have finished counting here, and my house rep won by 29 votes. The woman I know running for the next senate district over won by 7 votes.

Koch/Stanford guy lost the Supreme Court seat 41-59.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 2:44 AM
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The aggregate isn't surprising, but the details of knowing which races broke which way is depressing.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:26 AM
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Jesus. Well, thank god the DFL still controls the governor's mansion and MN state senate. Only so much the Repugs can do to fuck things up with just the house. Once again, it's pretty frustrating to be stuck in a rotten borough, even if that does mean being represented by a black muslim radical and the longest-serving queer elected official in the country.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:04 AM
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And it looks like the MN Sec'y of State race was spoiled for the Republicans by the Libertarian candidate! That's rare as hen's teeth around here.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:08 AM
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Not all the votes are in, but my sister appears to have lost her re-election. 1,424 - 1,147.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:16 AM
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The upshot seems to be that the Democrats lost every race that was remotely competitive and then some (a few competitive House seats aside). I think Josh underplays the role of the midterm falloff problem in this post, but otherwise it is on the mark. It's going to be a long two years.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:43 AM
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In case anyone was cheered by my saying that Democrats took the NY state senate, I was wrong about that last night. This did not in fact happen.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:48 AM
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Fuck a bunch of LePage winning.

And with a much higher share of the vote than when he squeaked into office in 2010. What the fuck, Maine?

Also looks like we're back to having not just one, but two Republican members of Congress in the New England states. Their absence to date was a point of regional pride for me, so that sucks out of proportion to its actual significance. Presumably those two seats will swing back and forth between the parties in Presidential and midterm years for the foreseeable future.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:51 AM
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I feel less depressed about the election results than I did in 2004.

And, to complete the thought: I was less depressed about 2012 than I was about 2002. I was less depressed about 2010 than I was about 2000. I was less depressed about 2008 than I was about 1998.

Stated that way, it almost sounds like progress.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:06 AM
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182: I knew that the casino thing was going down, but I'm really worried about allowing those casinos. Might be more important to the health of the Commonwealth than sick days. The gas tax thing sucks for revenue and climate change reasons.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:10 AM
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Oh, in case anyone is insufficiently depressed, the House GOP will almost certainly come away with a larger majority than they enjoyed after the 2010 landslide. Does anyone else see Hillary Clinton bringing in 30+ Democratic Reps on her coattails to regain the majority in 2016? Because I sure don't.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:16 AM
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201: that sucks, Spike. But good for her for running. Honestly, my sense today is that people* who didn't spend at least, I don't know, an hour/week organizing -- even broadly defined -- shouldn't be allowed to complain too much.

* At least people in good health and with the means to have a disposable hour/week.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:27 AM
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the House GOP will almost certainly come away with a larger majority than they enjoyed after the 2010 landslide. Does anyone else see Hillary Clinton bringing in 30+ Democratic Reps on her coattails to regain the majority in 2016?

I don't think it's out of the question.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:30 AM
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To be clear, I'm not judging people who didn't work to get out the vote or whatever; I'm judging people who didn't work to get out the vote or whatever and then decided to perform their outrage on facebook about the GOP's gains.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:31 AM
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Eh, I'm not even judging them, I guess.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:31 AM
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Mostly I'm just muttering to myself.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:32 AM
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I feel less depressed about the election results than I did in 2004.

Me too. That was probably the political nadir that I'll ever see in my lifetime, partly for how it shattered the last vestige of my political innocence.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:32 AM
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I think the more important issue for the House isn't Hillary, but control of the state legislatures during the next redistricting. For example, see 156.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:32 AM
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201: I'm sorry to hear that.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:33 AM
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This is the mindfulness and meditation thread now, I assume.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:35 AM
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208-212: I didn't do anything to get out the vote, although I suppose that I should have. I didn't think "We need to stop Baker from getting in" was the message that needed to be out there, and I wouldn't have been all that good at talking up why Martha Coakley was good.

I mean, I'm kind of angry with her for not opposing a merger between Partners (our leading Academic hospital chain with the highest prices) and a few regional community hospitals.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:37 AM
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I didn't do anything to get out the vote, although I suppose that I should have.

Me neither.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:38 AM
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I think the more important issue for the House isn't Hillary, but control of the state legislatures during the next redistricting. For example, see 156.

Be that as it may, you're still talking about maybe impacting the House election in 2022 if everything goes right, which is consistent with my point that hopes are slim of retaking the House any time soon (on the theory that the high water mark in the House for the President's party is likely to be the year of first election). Unless heebie's confidence in Hillary is justified.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:40 AM
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I loathe doing anything activist-ish, for all the same reasons that I was reluctant to email the pregnant Spaniard. Fear of confrontation, dislike of talking to and getting to know new people, etc. Also it hinders my fragile ability to compartmentalize.

I recognize these are terrible reasons, and I try to donate money instead.

(Pregnant Spaniard has updated that she is not sure when to remove her nipple rings and not sure how the holes will affect breastfeeding. In a different post, I realized she lives about five houses down from us.)


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:41 AM
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Can't the baby just put the nipple in his or her mouth with the ring?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:43 AM
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One of the real downsides of living in the Pauline Kael bubble is that it's hard to direct political energy. I should do much more than I do, but nothing relevant is local, and then I never get around to picking something non-local to focus on. I need a red state, or ideally a balanced state, pen pal or something, whose location I could think of as local for political purposes.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:44 AM
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To be pessimistic, am I the only one who finds HRC to be a hopelessly wooden public speaker? I always cringe at how unnaturally stiff she sounds.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:45 AM
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I don't understand why Pennsylvania is the one place where people realized the Republican governor was doing a bad job. It's not like our economy is particularly in turmoil. Maybe the deciding factor was that stupid email porn scandal or whatever that was.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:46 AM
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I need a red state, or ideally a balanced state, pen pal or something, whose location I could think of as local for political purposes.

You can have HeebieTown.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:47 AM
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224: Are you back or something?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:48 AM
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HeebieTown is actually closer to being balanced than not. The two city council spots went the way I wanted. The mayor is useless but not exactly destructive. Business and inequality are simultaneously booming.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:51 AM
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224: relatively strong union presence. And we moved here.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:52 AM
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223: the electoral math is terrible for the GOP in two years, but I still think it's no sure thing that Clinton wins. She's proven herself to be at best a deeply mediocre candidate. On the other hand, I have a hard time figuring out how Bush, Martinez, Romney, Ryan, or Walker win -- not to mention the cavalcade of crazy that is a Cruz or Paul candidacy.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:57 AM
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I guess it shouldn't surprise me when any group of people votes to lower their own taxes, but really, Massachusetts? Indexing the gas tax to inflation is too much? Fuck.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:58 AM
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One of the real downsides of living in the Pauline Kael bubble is that it's hard to direct political energy

If people have money or energy or time to give in solidly blue areas, I would say give it to organizations effectively organizing low-income people who can then make demands on whatever Democratic candidates get elected. Worker and immigrant centers, especially.

I actually think this is what people should maybe focusing their energy on everywhere, but it's an easier argument to make in this case.


Posted by: Criiminally Bulgur | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:11 AM
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Some pluses: in addition to four states passing higher minimum wages, Oakland and SF both increased theirs significantly over the state minimum (which was itself raised by the Legislature last year). Recreational pot in DC and Oregon, so that may well spread downcoast in 2016. California rejected the education reform bannerman and cut down on mass incarceration.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:13 AM
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Nebraska did vote to raise the minimum wage also. If it can pass there, I don't see why it won't make a good issue nationally to beat on Republicans in Congress.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:15 AM
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I wonder if Jodi Ernst will have staying power in Iowa. I'm thinking yes, if she can avoid becoming a Bachmann-like figure, which she seems smart enough and disciplined enough to do. While her beliefs are no doubt too extreme for the median voter in Iowa, the same could arguably be said of Tom Harkin, and he managed survive for decades with without attracting much in the way of serious competition. It's crazy to contemplate, but a Senator to the right of Ted Cruz could be representing a light blue state for the next 18-24 years.

Google maps traffic layer shows clear sailing from here all the way to the Slough of Despond.



Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:18 AM
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Joni, not Jodi.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:28 AM
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Ernst nearly lost this race to a guy who insulted farmers. In Iowa. And now she has to start voting for the Republican majority. All of which is to say, if the Dems can find a decent candidate -- and that's no sure thing, as this election cycle demonstrated around the country -- she's toast in six years.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:32 AM
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Unless, of course, Iowa keeps getting older, in which case it won't be a light blue state anymore.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:33 AM
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157. Not to burst anyone's bubble about MA Gov being close enough that "a better candidate than Coakley" would have won, but if Baker hadn't decided to make up a story about a fisherman, he would have much more easily. Remember that the other two primary candidates couldn't even beat her, much as I like Don Berwick and voted for him.

223. I'm with Heebie on this. HRC is not an inspiring candidate. If she wins the nomination it'll be on the same principle Republicans award theirs: "It's her turn."

230. Does any other state index the gas tax? I thought it was a long-shot for the same reason you mention. I am very disappointed at how badly Question 2 (expanding bottle deposits) did; another "don't 'tax' me" vote. Opponents painted it as a tax and an inconvenience.


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:34 AM
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238.last: yes, a dozen or so, in one form or another (directly indexing to CPI; indexing to price of fuel; levying a percentage tax on the retail price rather than/in addition to a per-gallon excise). Desperately needed at the federal level (along with a steep initial hike) and the loss in Massachusetts certainly doesn't bode well for that. But who needs roads and bridges when you have slightly cheaper gas!


Posted by: potchkeh | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:43 AM
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HRC is not an inspiring candidate. If she wins the nomination it'll be on the same principle Republicans award theirs: "It's her turn."

I don't think that's true. There are lots of people very excited to vote for Hillary.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:47 AM
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She's proven herself to be at best a deeply mediocre candidate.

I don't think I agree with this. I agree she's proven that she's not a great candidate, but I think your framing understates Obama's skills, elides the importance of the Iraq vote, and relies too heavily on the Mark Penn factor. Mind you, she's responsible for having picked a shitty team*, but that's certainly a mistake that can be corrected in a way that actually being a shitty candidate (I'm thinking Dukakis or Tsongas, probably Dole) can't.

*if her people had simply been on the ball with caucuses, she arguably wins in '08; IIRC, she continued to do well in primaries even after Obama was fait accompli.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:48 AM
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240 is an example of the incompetence that got the dems defeated so badly.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:48 AM
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Final despairing comment: in the run-up to the election, I consoled myself with the fact that whatever the outcome in the Senate, it would be temporary, because the map and the electorate are so favorable to the Dems in 2016 that they would surely regain control. But if things play out as it looks like they will, the Dems will have an unexpectedly steep hill to climb in 2016. They are going to need to run the table in the blue states (PA, NH, WI) and knock off at least one incumbent in a purple state (NC, FL, OH), possibly more than one if a Dem incumbent loses (CO, WV). That's just to reach a 50-50 tie. Attaining a working majority will require them to have a night like Republicans did last night. With Martha Coakley Hillary at the top of the ticket.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:51 AM
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224: Corbett's first act as governor was to cut school funding in a way that affected even wealthy suburban districts, plus he fucked over the state college system. He basically pissed off every non-elderly voter in the state on day one, and never did anything else to make up for it.

That said, I agree that it's weird that every other state with a shitty Republican governor basically said, "Well, maybe he'll get better if we give him another chance." In general, I don't understand the mindset of "I'm afraid of Ebola, therefore I'm going to punish the party in power by reëlecting every incumbent who isn't a Democrat." I mean, I get that midterm electorates skew strongly GOP, but...


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:53 AM
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IIRC, she continued to do well in primaries even after Obama was fait accompli.

She continued to do extremely well. She won Ohio.

And then she had a few years as Sec. of State when she became an icon of coolness. It was all just clever pr, but that's all it takes.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:53 AM
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244: And the Penn State stuff hurt him in complicated ways per this article. He was accused of stalling (and the investigation led to the porn scandal), but the fact that he did anything at all enraged a significant natural constituency, Penn State asshat alums.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:02 AM
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A hearty thanks to anyone who can find precinct-level results for Illinois.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:04 AM
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knecht has successfully snuffed out all my glimmers of non-despair.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:05 AM
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I can find asshat Penn State alums far more easily.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:05 AM
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Christ - looks like LePage actually got tens of thousands more absolute votes than in 2010.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:08 AM
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Anyway, they're 4 for 4 so far this season. The arc of the universe is long, but it bends toward justice?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:08 AM
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"We've secretly replaced Maine's Governor LePage with LeBron James. Let's see if they notice."


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:10 AM
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Quite a lot of clueless stuff on Slate this morning. Here's Weisberg:

The first argument for conciliation is that Republicans will soon bear an equal share of responsibility for what happens in Washington. They will have the power to pass bills on their own. Passing only legislation that Obama is certain to veto, like overturning the Affordable Care Act, will not win them much credit with voters.

Right. Because that strategy did so much damage to the Republicans in this election.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:14 AM
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I don't think I agree with this.

I'm not sure I'm up for fighting with you about this, but I think it takes some real doing to lose to an inexperienced black man named Barack Hussein Obama -- especially when you're the presumptive nominee, you have better name recognition than Slavoj Žižek, and all the money in the world is lined up behind you. Obama ran a pretty great race, yes, but Clinton was just as bad as any of those mopes you mention.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:15 AM
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I'm pretty shocked that Quinn lost. Shouldn't be, but am. At least we raised the minimum wage/made insurance cover birth control/raised taxes on millionaires. We also passed a "victim's rights" act which I was confused about - each provision sounds unobjectionable, but I felt like the overall effect would be to throw more people in prison.

Does anyone know how the language gets chosen for the summaries of each amendment/initiative that make it to the ballot?


Posted by: torque | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:16 AM
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On the other hand, I have a hard time figuring out how Bush, Martinez, Romney, Ryan, or Walker win -- not to mention the cavalcade of crazy that is a Cruz or Paul candidacy.

The only thing that needs to happen is the economy needs to suck in 2016.

The Republican Party has considerable influence over the state of the economy, and is smart and ruthless enough to use that influence.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:16 AM
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I was doing really well at "It's not like I expected anything good so I may as well go along not thinking about it." But then I came here! Now I'm going to just lie down and moan.


Posted by: redfoxtailshrub | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:18 AM
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Is Congress going to let DC go forward with recreational marijuana?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:20 AM
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Ernst nearly lost this race.

Not judging by the election returns she didn't. The margin was the same as the Perdue-Nunn race, i.e. a solid drubbing.

Sorry, gotta stop the despairing comments!


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:20 AM
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255: Aw, yuck. I checked before (early) bed yesterday, saw Quinn leading and didn't look this morning. MD got a Republican governor, too. WTF, blue states?


Posted by: ydnew | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:23 AM
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I'm in DC enough that recreational pot there is going to significantly improve my quality of life. Unless Congress fucks it up, which they probably will.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:23 AM
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While not as good, occupational pot is still a nice thing.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:25 AM
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238: I feel like there were people who voted for Coakley in the primary, because she seemed inevitable, and then she lost. That doesn't mean I think that Berwick could have won, because, much as I liked him, he's too left. He did have more executive experience, though. I wonder whether Grossman would have been better able to connect with the small-business folks plus he had worked for Goldman Sachs in the past.

That fishermen story was the lamest thing ever.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:25 AM
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239. Thanks, potchkeh. I apologize for being too lazy to look it up.


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:27 AM
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I do need to re-evaluate my relative lack of direct engagement beyond funds. Whining on blogs is dispiriting.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:30 AM
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Beyond just providing modest funds. And even there for instance, we gave to Franken (I will lay that one on my wife).


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:32 AM
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258: Unclear. Obama did oppose it on home rule grounds when Congress tried to veto DC making small possession a citation. But Congress will probably go after this initiative, and on balance I doubt Obama will want to directly enable legalization. But who knows, maybe all the tsuris of the next twelve months will give him another kumbayah moment.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:33 AM
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I think the Hillary wave in 2016 is going to be muted. Its clear, from last night, that its all about voter turnout. But there is no evidence that she can inspire the base, and, unlike Obama, she's not going to be able to mobilize historically high numbers of African-American voters. And sure, the Senate map is good relatively, but Team D also just lost a bunch of seats in purple states, which means the deficit to climb back from is a lot more to overcome than people were projecting as of a few days ago. Those seats are gone for all of the next presidential term.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:35 AM
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I could join the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club. On the one hand, it costs $15. On the other hand hand, of all the wards, it's the coolest.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:36 AM
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Not judging by the election returns she didn't.

My point was that it was a close race until Braley fucked up so catastrophically that he should have been ground up and refined into ethanol.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:37 AM
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255.2: In IL, looks like the proponents write the explanation, and the Attorney General can edit for fairness and accuracy.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:40 AM
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Let's not start that. I don't want to have to pick vegan or not when I buy gasoline.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:40 AM
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Silver is saying pretty much across the board 4% Dem skew in the polls. Fear Factor?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:43 AM
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Here in Dem Msla, turnout in the predominantly student precinct near the U was 10%. In the low income precincts downtown under 40%. I haven't looked at heavily Native precincts yet -- they're still counting -- but I bet the numbers are low there too.

(My precinct was 55%.)


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:52 AM
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I'm pretty sure that if everyone who would be affected by Medicaid expansion had turned up to vote, we'd have a blue leg. Candidates were pounding on this.

The party works as closely as it can with whatever advocacy organizations there are on this issue, and pretty much any others on our side.

We have vote by mail -- you get 30 days to turn in your ballot -- same day registration, I don't know what we can do to make it easier, or get the message out better.

At a certain point, if people won't vote for a life changing benefit for themselves, there's not much you can do for them.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 9:11 AM
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Fuck it, there was something Obama could've done to improve their chances, however slightly and inadequately. Does anyone believe a lack of executive action on immigration did anything to dispel Republican's fear mongering? Did it have any effect except for lowering Democratic turnout?


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 9:14 AM
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275: What's up with the students not voting?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 9:53 AM
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DC resident here. Local news: Democrats won solidly and we hate them. The Democratic mayor-elect's biggest accomplishment is bringing Wal-Mart into DC. The Democratic at-large councilwoman-elect is only not corrupt by DC standards. To be specific, she worked for a construction company until within days of voting on stuff relevant to them. (We're happy with the other at-large councilwoman-elect.)

I probably wouldn't want to actually smoke pot in my house, so I'll definitely need to start looking into other places.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 9:54 AM
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Senate was going to continue to be a hot mess either way for the next two years, but I was hoping for some rejection of Repub governance in the states with some prospects for Medicare expansion. Florida hurts the most on that one. (Granted I do not know to what extent governor could have influenced that--could have been a Virginia situation.)


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 9:55 AM
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A Republican-controlled Congress does give Obama one last chance for a Grand Bargain. He can make the Social Security cuts he's always wanted while claiming "the Republicans made me do it."


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:03 AM
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277 -- Other than the U being closed, so they didn't have to go to class, and there being a polling place in the student union building?* It must be Obama's fault. Or Harry Reid's. Or the Democratic Party, for not giving them an exciting, historic, dynamic candidate to vote for. (Whoops, they did have that.)

* There have been midterm elections where no one voted there. The county elections office has wanted to close the polling place, and have the students vote at an elementary school half a mile away, but the Dem party has pushed back and kept it open.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:08 AM
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I feel like there were people who voted for Coakley in the primary, because she seemed inevitable, and then she lost.

What? Who are these people? Why would you bother voting in the primary if that's what you're going on? (Grumbles the person who walked a good mile out of her way late in the day to cast a vote for Berwick that she knew was hopeless.)


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:10 AM
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He can make the Social Security cuts he's always wanted while claiming "the Republicans made me do it."

This will certainly be the moment that we get to test the PGD/mcmanus theory of Obama's cravenness re. social security.


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:13 AM
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282: A healthcare business blogger described feeling as though casting a vote for anyone else would be pointless.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:15 AM
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283: Also may further test theory that Republicans will reject any proposal that Obama accepts.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:16 AM
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280: What possible difference does Republican control of the Senate make? Obama was willing to do a deal with Boehner and drag the Senate Dems along with him, but only if Republicans agreed to new revenues, which they steadfastly refused to do. What makes you think that a Senate where Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are vying to outconservative each other will be any more amenable to tax increases?

If anything, Republicans are less likely to agree to any kind of Grand Bargain now, because their fingerprints would be all over the Social Security cuts. The Dem minority in both houses could force them the majority to pass it with their own members' votes. Do you see any Senate Dems willing to walk that plank to give cover to a lame duck President? I sure don't. I see two more years of last-minute CR deals, with a lot of mischievous "no funds" riders attached.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:17 AM
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281: Was anybody pushing student issues? I think that Warren connects pretty well with younger people, because she's so fierce about the student debt issue.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:17 AM
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279: Agreed. The senate results are depressing but it was already disfunctional. What's really upsetting is the fact that so many GOP governors were reelected despite basically destroying their states. I mean seriously, Kansas? The voters like the way things are going there so much that they want more?

Ugh.


Posted by: AcademicLurker | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:19 AM
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Also may further test theory that Republicans will reject any proposal that Obama accepts.

Also, the theory (which I associate with Jonathan Chait, but it has many adherents) that this House Republican majority will never under any circumstances pass a bill that raises taxes on the rich, no matter what concessions Obama and the Democrats are willing to make to get it.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:21 AM
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Last night was dispiriting. I had some small hope that a local feisty race was going to swing, but it stayed solidly R. And a local to me but not my rep blue dog congressman (Costa) looks like he's going down--and I didn't have an impression that he was in trouble prior to the polls closing.

For my city council race, there's a 20 vote margin: 3783 to 3803. I'd be happy with either, really, so that's my sliver of good news. Well, not including California staying solidly blue for statewide offices, which is great but I'd largely assumed it was going to happen.


Posted by: Mooseking | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:27 AM
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I heard some dude on NPR this morning saying that the most urgent issue facing congress is tax reform. Bullshit. Taxes are too low, but there's no real crisis, and there's no hope that the right will go along with fixing that particular problem.

IME the big issue that needs to be dealt with is immigration reform, but again the GOP isn't going to do anything constructive on that front.


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:28 AM
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saying that the most urgent issue facing congress is tax reform

Get ready to hear this a lot. I don't expect that we will see a comprehensive tax reform that touches personal income taxes, but I fully expect Obama to sign some kind of corporate tax reform that lowers the statutory rate, makes only hollow gestures in the direction of broadening the base, and offers tax-free repatriation of profits held in offshore subsidiaries.

I would also expect a repeal of the Medical device tax, possibly as a standalone measure that passes quickly with support from MA/NJ/MN Dems.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:35 AM
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Can they even do that as a stand-alone measure? I thought they had to be revenue neutral.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:42 AM
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Ooh, can we look forward to dynamic scoring from the CBO?


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:44 AM
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I could join the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club. On the one hand, it costs $15. On the other hand hand, of all the wards, it's the coolest.

"With about 18,000 registered Democrats, the ward is a large voting bloc, containing more Democratic voters than many Pennsylvania counties."

I guess that isn't that impressive since there's a county with only 4k people. But I get those, too. Maybe I should join.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:49 AM
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294: CBO is one of the things the Repubs will look to "reform."


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:50 AM
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Can they even do that as a stand-alone measure?

Sure. The House already passed it (not as a standalone measure, but as part of a grab-bag of Republican shiny objects).

Can they even do that as a stand-alone measure? I thought they had to be revenue neutral.

Congressional Republicans have been crystal clear that PAYGO should apply only spending increases (and non-defense spending, at that), not to tax cuts.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 10:50 AM
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289: that this House Republican majority will never under any circumstances pass a bill that raises taxes on the rich, no matter what concessions Obama and the Democrats are willing to make to get it.

The only unifying principle in modern conservatism/Republicanism/FoxNews/hate radio: Rich people not paying taxes/keeping more of their money/ being unconstrained in their activities in general. All of the bigotry and crap basically in the service of that goal.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 11:03 AM
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271: Interesting. I strongly suspect the VRA wouldn't have passed with different wording.


Posted by: torque | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 11:05 AM
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Chait says pretty much exactly what I'm thinking today:

In the near term of American politics, the enervating stalemate of the last four years is the best possible outcome. The next party to have a chance to impose its vision upon the federal government will very likely be the Republicans.


Posted by: knecht ruprecht | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 11:07 AM
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Anyone know where to find nationwide popular vote numbers for the House? ISTM like it would be a good metric of gerrymandering. Obviously, turnout is important too, and messaging and all that other stuff, but I'm curious if that factor has got worse or what.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 12:14 PM
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292 strikes me as completely right. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some serious discussion of a change to chained CPI for Social Security.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 12:27 PM
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This is of interest.

No recount will be needed to declare one unambiguous winner in Tuesday's gubernatorial elections: the financial services industry. From Illinois to Massachusetts, voters effectively placed more than $100 billion worth of public pension investments under the control of executives-turned-politicians whose firms profit by managing state pension money.
The elections played out as states and cities across the country debate the merits of shifting public pension money -- the retirement savings for police, firefighters, teachers and other public employees -- from plain vanilla investments such as index funds into higher-risk alternatives like hedge funds and private equity funds.
Critics have argued that this course has often failed to boost returns enough to compensate for taxpayer-financed fees paid to the financial services companies that manage the money. Wall Street firms and executives have poured campaign contributions into states that have embraced the strategy, eager for expanded opportunities. Tuesday's results affirmed that this money was well spent: More public pension money will now likely be entrusted to the financial services industry.

Since this doesn't rightly belong in the "Things that cheered me" thread, it's here.

h/t BillMoyers.com


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:07 PM
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Digby Sent Me

Why Steve Israel Failed Miserably ...Down With Tyranny

But Ileana gets a reelection free-pass from Israel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Last year Wasserman Schultz was complicit in recruiting a cardboard candidate, Manny Yevancey, who no one ever heard of, who raised zero dollars and who campaigned exactly zero days. His only job was to occupy the Democratic ballot slot so no one else could run against Wasserman Schultz's and Israel's BBF.

There are 21 seats like this in the House, winnable seats Steve Israel willfully ignored, even if they were much easier than impossible targets in deep red districts where he ran his handpicked Blue Dogs and New Dems. All of these incumbents represent districts where Obama won in 2008 and/or 2012 but where Israel has refused to back the grassroots local candidate or has frightened off anyone from running against his Republican pals

Also the Consultants ...Down With Tyranny

The money EMILY's List demands cannot be spent on something useful-- like a field operation-- but must be wasted on a lame Beltway firm which is going to personally enrich an EMILY's List executive. It's how EMILY's List killed the campaigns this year of Alex Sink, Wendy Greuel, Eloise Reyes and several other women they led down the garden path. Several despairing candidates have said to me that they are forced to sit on the phone all day begging for money and that all the money winds up in the pockets of utterly worthless consultants they are forced to hire. And then they lose. We all lose, except the executives at EMILY's List and the crooked consultants they are enriching-- like Parker's wife.

Two political parties for the little people to get scared and excited and give money but one happy corrupt family and friends in DC raking the money in.

Fuck the Democrats.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:42 PM
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Fixed Steve Israel Link

Not sure about SS and Medicare or grand bargain, but net neutrality and tax repatriation and other business-friendly legislation are sure to come. The Republicans will be sure to distract the peons with red meat firing up the base and scandalizing the Dems while making deals with Obama, Just like the second Clinton term.

The two huge trade deals are an uphill climb, because of growing overseas opposition and worse economies in Europe. Be interesting if the hegemon can force those through, it's my contention that Evil Empire America is ascending, not declining.

Lost a ton of the best pro-gay marriage congresspersons.

And we are due for a Black Swan, so I predict nuthin.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:51 PM
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Looks to me like we actually increased our minority in the state house of representatives from 39 to 41. That means no veto gets overridden. I'm sure our fine campaign staff is going to find 10 races where we'll be able to close the gap in '16, with better turnout (and maybe some better recruiting in a couple of races).

I haven't counted the senate yet. We won 9 of the 25 races yesterday, but I don't know how many of our 21 seats were not up this time. We lost a couple we really wanted to win, I know, so maybe we didn't gain any ground. That has an impact on appointments, but not on governance.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:56 PM
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I walked the dogs right past the polling place. 2012 I tied them up for a couple minutes. This year I kept on walking.

The Chait above was decent, but honestly, I don't trust any Beltway or NYC insiders. All are well-paid courtiers.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:57 PM
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Is the link in 305 credible? Because it's really blood-boilingly outrageous.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 1:59 PM
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I walked the dogs right past the polling place. 2012 I tied them up for a couple minutes. This year I kept on walking.

How honorable of you.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 2:00 PM
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It seems like progressive issues generally won on the ballot initiatives, or at least many of them. How does that happen in the same election and with the same electorate showing up at the polls in which the Republicans have a landslide victory? I don't know how to interpret that as anything other than a complete failure on the part of Democrats to capitalize on popular issues. Minimum wage increases, drug decriminalization, etc. If voters approve of these issues but are voting for Republican candidates (because they don't realize where the Republican party is on these issues?), that's a failure on the part of Democrats.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 2:25 PM
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Wait, Bob is predicting that a Republican congress will pass net neutrality, and that it's "business friendly" and hence a bad thing? I never imagined we'd get Telco Lobby Bob to go with all the other Bobs.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 2:27 PM
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310, the problem is a combination of Democratic Party being afraid to stand for anything that their opponents don't also stand for, and the media. Based on media coverage, the only national politician interested in any of those progressive issues is the compulsively intriguing and endlessly fascinating Rand Paul.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 2:32 PM
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310 is a really good point. This election was a nice demonstration of the gap between the policy preferences of the electorate and their party preferences.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 2:33 PM
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313 was me.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 2:34 PM
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Yeah, see, I think this is a disconnect with how people are thinking abut stuff. Did you see that NYT thing were voters were complaining about inequality, how everything is run for the rich, and that's why they were voting for the Republican challenger? There's no shortage of messaging out there -- but lots and lots of people in this rump electorate identify the status quo with the president, and therefore any opposition to the president registers as opposition to the status quo.

I have no idea how you reach people like this, but I think you people complaining about messaging aren't paying attention to the vast efforts going on in this regard. You really think Sens Pryor, Hagan, Udall, or Begich left any arguments about Republican positions on the table? The problem is that low information voters are low information by choice, not because no one is trying to talk to them.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:10 PM
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I mean really we're trying everything we can think of, and if anyone has an actual idea, rather than an inchoate gripe, there's people looking to go with it. Running away from Dem positions just isn't a 2014 issue, ime.

Not embracing the personality of the President is an issue in states like MT, AR, NC, AK, but I don't think anyone can show that the candidates are misapprehending the situation in doing so.

The Pres fucked up 2009 and 2010 for not focusing on employment and letting his people spend even a minute thinking about debt. Since then, though, nothing he's done or not done is really a part of anything relevant to this election.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:15 PM
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I don't know what was happening locally in other states, but I don't remember a lot of national Democrats talking very much about things like the minimum wage.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:30 PM
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Did Grimes not talk about the minimum wage?


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:39 PM
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The President has talked about it, certainly, including in the lest several days. But the media is more interested in ebola and isis and isn't there a missing blonde woman? No. Wait a minute, there will be.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:40 PM
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And what's a national Democrat, anyway? Other than Obama or Biden? Pelosi and Reid?


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:42 PM
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You think Chris Van Hollen could have turned the tide against McConnell?


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:43 PM
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Grimes "supported" an increase in the minimum wage, but no, she didn't actually talk about that much--almost all the ads she ran just talked about was how she loved coal/hated the EPA more than that notoriously soft-on-the-EPA McConnell (some variation of this attack was literally probably 75+% of her ads that I saw), or how she hated immigrants more than the notoriously soft-on-immigrants McConnell.

Out-of-staters may want to actually click those links and watch those ads. They are pretty hard to believe. I despise McConnell but I was not very sorry at all to see her lose.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 3:50 PM
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322: Similarly, Kay "I'M A MODERATE'S MODERATE" Hagan gave me very little to cheer during her six years, but Tillis is such a complete jackwagon that she looked golden by comparison.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 4:00 PM
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There's only key issue before the Senate: Whom do you support for Majority Leader? Grimes got that one right.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 4:30 PM
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Very dispiriting experience, this election, even for those of us who believe in the fundamentals and were determined not to be down about it. Nobody I'd be able to persuade wasn't already persuaded, and turnout was low everywhere even though everybody I know voted.

Which leaves us with the off-year electorate, the lesser Kulaks of American life. I'm still determined to find ways to persuade, very much against my inclination.

It brings home to me just how much I've been able to associate with people of my own choosing, which makes my life pleasant to be sure.


Posted by: idp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 4:35 PM
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Sure. I mean, look, I voted for her. But she was a lesser evil that was actively advertising herself (falsely) as a greater evil. Not very inspiring. And all of that's a bit beside the point, which was: no, she didn't talk a lot about the minimum wage. Have other democrats been hammering that point? What about more progressive taxes? What about reinstating estate taxes? What about decriminalizing marijuana? What about student debt? I don't hear a lot of noise from Democrats on these issues, and what I hear is pretty soft. For some reason, there's a perception that these are fringe progressive issues--and campaign losers--but polling would suggest otherwise. (I'm perfectly willing to believe that anyone being vocal about the need for more progressive taxes might suddenly find themselves having trouble funding their campaign. Maybe that is the issue.)


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 4:40 PM
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326 to 324.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 4:40 PM
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Or, democrats don't want to get voted in on those issues because it would piss off their campaign donors.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:07 PM
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And what's a national Democrat, anyway? Other than Obama or Biden? Pelosi and Reid?

Maybe someone who's name rhymes with "Chillary Blinton?"


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:45 PM
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Or their polling tells them they've more to lose than gain from taking that position. In terms of people that can actually vote in their election, and are actually going to do so.

We've got a fairly progressive party here -- we had a battle about what to say about coal at the party platform convention this summer, and more or less decided not to talk much about it (over my objection) -- and I know there was talk of getting zillionaires to pay their fair share. But I don't think there are the votes you folks think there are in a whole lot of the country for an aggressively re-distributionist agenda.

You're welcome to give it a shot, though: run for office. Or join a party committee that works on messaging.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 5:47 PM
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Or their polling tells them they've more to lose than gain from taking that position.

There might be a prisoners dilemma situation there.

No purple state Democrat stands to benefit from taking $PROGRESSIVE_POLICY_POSITION, in isolation, because the polls tell them they would appear to be Radical Leftists, which the voters would reject. In fact, they can gain some benefit by gaining Moderate Cred(TM), by downplaying their association with the Radical Left of the Democrat Party.

However, if all the Democrats were taking $PROGRESSIVE_POLICY_POSITION, backed up by Consistent National Messaging, it would be considered a Respectable Mainstream Position instead of Radical Leftism. The base would be excited and would show up on polling day.

Instead, Democrats consistently reach for the promise of increased Moderate Cred. But when everybody does that, progressive positions down the line become viewed as Radical Lefty Positions. And then the Democrats lose because the base stays home and the rest of the electorate doesn't support politicians who don't hold Respectable Mainstream Positions.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Respectable Mainstream Positions include Global Warming is a Fib, Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves, Obama Will Take Your Guns, and YIKES! EBOLA!


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 6:43 PM
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For those of you looking for bright spots in this election, we've got a bunch of them up here. Begich does seem to have probably lost (although he hasn't conceded), but the gubernatorial race is extremely tight and the final result won't be known for days, maybe weeks. All of the state initiatives passed, and the Anchorage municipal question lost.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:36 PM
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Loomis Has a Plan For Midterms ...the problem is old white guys so run against old white guys with hip rainbow waycool young stuff.

Problem is, y'all grassroots voteserfs may hate old white guys, but Pelosi and Obama and HRC and Booker love their old white guys, because before and after office, in and out of gov't, in the boardrooms and banks...

...old white guys write the checks.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:41 PM
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And how come the depicted Old White Guy the voteserfs are supposed to hate is always some trailer trash redneck potbellied Duckdynast with a bad haircut...and not some razorslim Armani clad studmuffin with a diamond earring and a Hollywood speedial?

I wonder...


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:47 PM
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Can you try to update your stereotypes? It's not the 80s.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:52 PM
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Does that mean I need to buy new ties?


Posted by: Von Wafer | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 7:58 PM
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331 is close enough to what I would say but less coherently.

Not something you could work on in last x months before election but right up front.

That said, I'm not even sure it is a plausible strategy in a world that has mainstreamed racist bigoted hate speech radio and TV political outlets. No sane political world can exist in conjunction with that. Where to start is the issue. I have personally failed spectacularly in modest attempts to not have FoxNews on anywhere at my workplace. No way for it to not seem "just politics." Working on a new attempt via our relatively active LGBT support organization but I am 99% sure they will shun that like the plague for fairly obvious internal political reasons.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:13 PM
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332: I think the Smearcase half of the show has good local election news, too, but that is good to hear!


Posted by: Thorn | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:20 PM
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I forgot to mention in 332 that the super-tight gubernatorial race has shown the Independent candidate with a consistent lead over the Republican incumbent so far. It's a very small lead, though, swamped by the number of outstanding ballots (absentee and questioned) still to be counted. Details here for anyone who's interested.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:24 PM
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Something like 331 is what I think has happened in Minnesota (but , of course, over many years, and it is fragile and tenuous.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:24 PM
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and prone to its own failures.)


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 8:34 PM
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It can't spring up fully formed at a national level. That may be more or less how the Republican party got going in the 1850s, but I just don't see how it can happen now. It has to start at the state level -- you have to convince state parties to be more aggressive in platforms, and people -- actual human beings -- have to (a) run for office and (b) provide all the other support that people who run for office need (volunteers and money).

I don't believe that there's a progressive majority out there waiting to be awakened, but I'm happy to join in the experiment. But it's going to take years of total dedication by hordes of people, and I've never seen anything like the willingness required to do that. Instead, what people tend to do, ime, is specialize into issue advocacy. Or, much more likely, become internet cranks.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 9:00 PM
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I also don't agree that Respectable Mainstream Position is something within reach of an activist community. Respectable has come to mean that rich folks and their employees tolerate the position. It doesn't mean some other thing: the only respect that matters to the low information person is the respect of media corporations.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11- 5-14 9:04 PM
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Spike's 331 is brilliant.

I feel like CharleyCarp is making a lot of sense especially with 343.

I think that is part of why it will probably be a mercy when our civilization collapses. It is definitely not going anywhere good.


Posted by: roger the cabin boy | Link to this comment | 11- 6-14 12:04 AM
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Round here we constantly get told that the politicians pander to old people "because they vote", as if all the young'uns had to do was turn up and the pols were just waiting all this time. The problem, of course, is what on earth they would vote for, because nothing is offered but patronising bullshit. I remember K/athryn C/ramer saying that politics had reached a Nash-equilibrium in which any move away from the local maximum would be penalised. That was in 2005.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 11- 6-14 4:06 AM
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Eh, we'll pick this discussion up later I'm sure, but the "progressive" majority I am talking about is not all that progressive. For instance, see Pryor's contortions on minimum wage.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11- 6-14 9:37 AM
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