did someone muck with the backend here

Re: Heat

1

The Houston example (one danger day in the last 10 years, but about 126 caution days per year over the same time period) makes it sound like the issue is a statistical artifact of crossing a fixed line.

As they said, it's already routinely miserable--more days that are miserable will cross an arbitrary line if a few degrees are added. Or at least that's how it looks to me.


Posted by: Mooseking | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 2:44 PM
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The projections seem reasonable to me. To me at least climate change looks like the sort of thing where it happens gradually and we don't notice it and then either it crosses a line and we really notice it a lot*, or it hits a balance point and all of a sudden things get a lot worse very very quickly**. (I guess these are basically the same from a functional standpoint, though. And it probably depends on what exact changes you're looking at.)

*Like when it crosses the line between "humid but our cooling system can handle it" to "just slightly too humid for our cooling system to work right".
**Like, e.g., when "it's really humid" goes to "it's raining", which can take a very small change in the ambient humidity.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 2:59 PM
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Charleston WV and Asheville are 1 and 2? I can believe Savannah because it's pretty miserable there already in the summer, but I don't understand how two mountaintop cities are going to be warmer than, say, Albuquerque.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:00 PM
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I guess humidity is the real culprit?


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:03 PM
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Extreme Caution Days has a pretty wussy cut-off.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:05 PM
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I dunno, a heat index of 105 is no laughing matter if you're trying to do anything outside that involves more effort than a casual walk. Just 105 degrees isn't necessarily that bad, but lower than that plus humidity can cause serious trouble. And even without significant humidity "caution" meaning "remember about hydration because if you run out of water you're in a lot of trouble today" is pretty good advice when the temperature is north of 100.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:11 PM
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Why is e.g. San Diego supposed to be worse than LA, or Portland ME worse than NY?

That city in Iran with the recent super-unbelievable heat wave had the heat index get to 165, so there's that.


Posted by: Roberto Tigre | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:11 PM
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I guess the same day can be either an "extreme caution" or a "danger" day? Because otherwise Portland ME is expected by 2045 to have 190 days per year where the heat index tops 90, which seems ... improbable.


Posted by: Roberto Tigre | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:15 PM
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a heat index of 105 is no laughing matter

But that's not the Caution Cut-off - it's heat index of 90. I mean, please.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:17 PM
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This thing says that by 2100 summer in the Napa Valley will feel like summer is now in New Orleans, which sure sounds bad.


Posted by: Roberto Tigre | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:19 PM
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Seattle will only be like Palos Verdes, which is actually very pleasant in the summer, so we can move there, but I'll wait for the all-consuming earthquake and tsunami to happen first.


Posted by: Roberto Tigre | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:21 PM
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That thing only has temperature, though, not heat index. Anyhow, everything will suck except for my compound in Labrador.


Posted by: Roberto Tigre | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:24 PM
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To what extent is this danger based on hard physical constraints vs on people not being used to such temperatures? How much will the danger diminish as a new normal sets in? (Obviously that would take a while at best, especially for the elderly.)


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:44 PM
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1) Heat gets stored. A week of 100 raises the temp of brick concrete ground etc and it doesn't go down fast. The second week is fucking hotter.

2) AC gives you 30 degrees of cooling and after that gets loggy or something, as in twice the size to get the next degree. Most places don't have to worry yet about more than 30.

3) I am pretty sure the temps being talked about are measured in the shade. Add 10-15 degrees for bright sun, and yeah 100 can be a killer. Anybody read about that French couple who got a mile/mile and a half in White Sands and died? 15 minutes to a half hour, drank 2 liters each, didn't have enough life left to return one mile.

US Counties Ranked For Beauty bullshit, but gives some info on climate


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:48 PM
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Its nice to see New Hampshire heating up like I hoped it would.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 3:50 PM
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I went to a wedding in Alaska a month or so ago. My sister-in-law (an environmental lawyer, so not completely a layperson) was talking about how crowded Alaska is going to become due to global warming. But looking at the temperatures, I could only ask myself "Wait, how much hotter are they expecting it to get, exactly?"

I mean, it seems to me for Fairbanks, Alaska, to become weather/climate-appropriate, we're talking about changes a lot larger than that which I have heard. But it's not the first time I've heard that about Alaska.


Posted by: trumwill | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 6:23 PM
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I'm extremely dubious about that map. Just how is Duluth supposed to get that hot with Lake Superior right there? I do not believe 35 years are enough to make Duluth have more extremely hot days than ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE COUNTRY today. That's just ridiculous.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 6:50 PM
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16: Alaska is warming a lot faster than most other places. That said, a lot of the changes from that are decidedly for the worse (e.g., less snow and more ice in the winter), so I don't see a big rush in as a likely outcome. Plus the economy is on the verge of collapse with the continuing low price of oil.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 7:08 PM
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I just checked, it's not even 6 AM here and the heat index is already at 118. You want to talk about danger days? I guess you can say I'm living in the...(wait for it)...Danger Zone!


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 7:50 PM
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20

I will always picture you as Kenny Loggins-like.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 7:54 PM
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21

Lana! LANA! LAAAAAANAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 7:55 PM
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No, Moby, you're supposed to picture me as Archer-like.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 7:56 PM
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23

I don't even know what that is.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 8:00 PM
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I guess I could have looked at the link but it really didn't even occur to me that it wasn't Kenny.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 8:07 PM
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E. Messily will be here in, like, 45 minutes!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 8:20 PM
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25 Yay!


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 8:35 PM
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27

Don't know what they've done wrong but they've certainly done something quite wrong. Charleston averaging Danger Days from late April to early October? Far, far more than Bristol TN which has a similar climate to it today? Duluth more of these days than Tallahassee?

If I had to guess I would say that they have gone wrong on himidity, or st least the combination of temperature and humidiy. (In comments someone asked, and they mentionef that Charleston is humid.) Most likely they independently did worst case for temp and relative humidity (RH) (they cite different sources for the two) and done naively that would very likely give you some crackpot results; they need to be linked. For moisture they should model dewpoint--same dewpoint leads to decreasing RH with increasing temp.

But even that should not lead this level of wacky results which makes me wonder if they are also effing up by not being careful on time of day for the humidity. Charleston* and Asheville are both in relatively deep river valleys and prone to high morning humidities and fogs rather than just having the "air mass" value which is what controls to a much larger extent in the heat of the day.

*Charleston is actually more of a Ohio Valley town than a mountain one climatewise.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 9:16 PM
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If they used average relative humidity for instance.

I'm sure it will be hot as fuck a lot of places, but stuff like this sloppy work is counterproductive.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 9:23 PM
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29

The unlinked humidity/temp explanation seems plausible.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 9:40 PM
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30

We have a Messily!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 9:41 PM
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31

Don't Mess with Especially Messily!


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 10:26 PM
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32

She only appears when the heat index is above a certain level. You know, like the Predator.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 08-18-15 10:33 PM
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33

Fortunately, in Texas the heat index is that high a lot. (Because Texas sucks.)


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:22 AM
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34

The heat index is now at 131. Time to go cover myself in mud and lie in wait for the Predator.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:52 AM
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35

We're all rooting for you, Barry.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:59 AM
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36

*Someone* will.


Posted by: opinionated little shikari | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 1:06 AM
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37

It's at 136 now. This is fun.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 1:17 AM
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38

The old men call him "El Bibliotecario Cazador des Hombres".


Posted by: Opinionated Colombian Chick | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 1:27 AM
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39

It doesn't matter if it goes above 88, as I believe Barry has already had himself tested for Dave's Syndrome.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 1:31 AM
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40

The hottest temperature have ever seemed to were inland on the Peloponnese in mid-July, when it was something like 45 C, and the humidity was relatively high. It took me a few days to get used to that, and I thought I was going to literally faint, at one point.

I don't know the exact heat index, but it would have been 140 - 150 range (US style).

Oddly, similar temperatures, in Turkey at a similar time of year, didn't feel like they were so definitely going to kill me. Maybe more wind, or lower humidity, or something.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 3:03 AM
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41

The significance of the recursive link in 39 escapes me.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:03 AM
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42

Here http://www.channel4.com/programmes/black-books/on-demand/32230-002

Here you go.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:17 AM
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43

Ah.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:26 AM
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44

||

HTML bleg: Is there a simple way to automatically have a cell (or more precisely several single cell rows) cover the full width of a table if you don't know ahead of time how wide the table is going to be? colspan = $arbitrarilyLargeNumber seems to be a hack which may break in certain situations, but I was wondering if there was some way to do it properly, preferably without jQuery.

|>


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:26 AM
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45

You can do it by nesting tables. So make an outer table that's one cell wide, and uses those for your "full width" cells, then inside one of those cells, put your table with multi-cell rows.

Its kind of a gross hack, tho.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:42 AM
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So the multi-cell table is a tr in the single cell table?

As for the hackiness, as long as it doesn't break in some circumstances and as long as it's replicable with simple copy-and-pasting, I'm not too fussed.


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:53 AM
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47

That seemed to work, at least in principle. Thanks. I'm not sure it's going to end up being quicker than the alternative, though.


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:19 AM
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48

The situation where it would break is where you do more than one multi-table cell per table, and you expect the multi-cells to align with each other, but each one goes its own way so you have to police the widths very carefully.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:39 AM
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Yeah, I don't think I can get it to behave exactly as I want it to because of the constraints involved, but I can get an acceptable result. To be honest, it might make sense to just have two consecutive tables - in practice it doesn't really matter if the single cell table is exactly the same width as the multi-cell table, because it's left aligned.


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:49 AM
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Speaking of things breaking, the power just went out in my flat but not in any of the adjoining flats which I suppose is good news. Flipping the breaker did nothing so here I sit waiting for emergency maintenance.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:49 AM
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51

They cut the power? How could they cut the power? They're animals, man!


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:52 AM
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52

Arrakis is one of those places where they cut utilities pretty much immediately on non-payment, isn't it?


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:54 AM
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53

It appears to be only my flat. Ok maintenance is here.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:57 AM
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Back to the scintillating topic of html tables, how about this - a multi-cell table followed by a single-cell table, both nested in another table (or just a div?) with the single-cell table inheriting its width from the parent. Would that work? Assume the multi-cell table is always going to be wider than the single cell one.


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 5:57 AM
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52 They probably would only my employer pays for the utilities (and the flat - a sweet deal that I was one of the last ones to get, falling Spice prices you know).


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 6:00 AM
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56

It's not supposed to get over 70 until after noon. That's very weird for Nebraska in August.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 6:01 AM
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57

Now maintenance is gone, presumably fixing the problem. This is cutting into my nap time here.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 6:02 AM
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58

We have powah!

First time I've ever seen an electrician in sal war kameez.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 6:34 AM
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59

What else would you wear in that heat if loose robes weren't your thing? I take it the sparkie was from P***stan?


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 6:44 AM
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I believe so. But other than the native Fremen I don't see people wearing their native dress that much. Then again he's maintenance for the building so presumably hanging around the premises all day long, may as well be comfortable. He may even live here, I know the super does.

(sal war s/b salwar)


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 6:49 AM
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54: Yeah, that would work.

Its kind of sad all progress on improving html tables ground to a halt around the turn of the millennium. You would think HTML5 could have awesome, useful, flexible tables, but no. Its because tables were banished in favor of crazy div/css systems. I think that was a mistake.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 7:58 AM
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The OP chart has Msla with more of the orange days than Indianapolis, which doesn't seem accurate. But then it's bad there right now, because of the smoke from wildfires.

Exacerbated by climate change.

We're driving home this weekend, trying to find the least smoky route. It looks hopeless.

(I'd kind of wanted to go via Cape Flattery, and see the western end of the Pacific Northwest Trail. Except the trail's end is actually Cape Alava.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 7:59 AM
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)


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 7:59 AM
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Its because tables were banished in favor of crazy div/css systems. I think that was a mistake.

Fuck, yes. I've had to make some tiny layout changes to a few pages recently, which have led me into hours and hours of hell, because of that shit.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 8:20 AM
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39, 42 Oh, Black Books looks great. I can't believe I'd never heard of it before.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 8:58 AM
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Black Books is one of the greatest sitcoms of all time.


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 8:59 AM
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I'm a huge Father Ted fan so I'm just boggled and thrilled that I've never heard of it.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 9:09 AM
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It really does seem like most of the great British comedies never crossed the channel, even in bastardised remake form. Whereas we got* most of the US ones, albeit often at crazy times of night on BBC 2.

* These days we miss out on a lot of the best US comedy, because a lot of it is not sitcoms and apparently UK schedulers think we can only the Daily Show is as much as we can handle on a regular basis.


Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 9:15 AM
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Black Books has aged better for me, I think, than Father Ted in some ways.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 10:11 AM
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To the OP, fwiw, we just set a new record yesterday for the number of days in a year over 90 degrees. When we exceed that today with 26, we'll reach twice the average.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 10:54 AM
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Climate change stuff makes me want to curl up in a ball under the bed lately, just the mention of it. I think I'm honestly kind of back in the mindset I was in during the 80s after watching The Day After, where lots of things just immediately cue a low level apocalypse dread. I started watching that movie Seeking a Friend for the End of the World and while I recognized that it was a dark comedy, my entire reaction to it was like watching a horror movie. I had to turn it off. Shorter this: not clicking through.


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 11:30 AM
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How old are you, though?

I bet if you take up smoking it'll make things easier, both because cigarettes relieve anxiety but also because it makes it less likely you'll be around when the chickens really start coming home to roost.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 11:46 AM
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I'm 42, and I don't have kids. At some point in the last decade that seemed good enough, but every article seems to be to the tune of "things are accelerating and the acceleration is accelerating." So yeah, maybe smoking.


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 11:55 AM
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74

At least IME when I smoked, smoking is more fun in a colder climate. Not as satisfying on a really hot day.


Posted by: Roberto Tigre | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 11:57 AM
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75

Also you could move somewhere high up*, buy a motorcycle, start drinking heavily/more heavily and get really fat!

I'm guessing high altitude is a better bet for staying cool than moving north. Not having kids is probably a pretty good thing at this point, too.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 11:59 AM
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Not having kids is probably a pretty good thing at this point, too.

I should have thought about that. Maybe I'll encourage mine to go to the University of Tromsø.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:05 PM
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It's never too young to become a prepper!


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:06 PM
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76: Don't some models show the Gulfstream moving? Maybe Norway will get even colder. Or maybe that's what you meant.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:30 PM
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78: Yes. Otherwise I'd have suggested Fairbanks.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:33 PM
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80

We have all these sweaters that almost never get worn.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:34 PM
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74: I've always wondered about that. The thought of drawing hot air into my mouth on a hot, muggy day seems unpleasant, like walking past a window unit AC and getting that brief blast of extra heat.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:48 PM
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Not having kids is probably a pretty good thing at this point, too.

As I've said before, if I'd realized just how quickly things were going to get quite bad, I'm not sure I would have. I mean, I wasn't under the illusion in 2003 that everything was hunky dory, but "hellscape before my kids start having babies" didn't seem like a high probability thing. Now it does.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 12:50 PM
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Won't your kids be having babies in the 2040s? I thought the hellscape isn't until more like the 2070s.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 1:19 PM
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I think it's the 'bad things keep accelerating' bit that's playing into that. The hellscape stuff looks like it gets closer with each new bit of data.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 1:33 PM
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Maybe I'll encourage mine to go to the University of Tromsø.

I know a faculty member there! He was my camp counselor for a few summers when I was in high school, and then was taking doctoral classes at UNC when I was an undergrad.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 2:24 PM
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Yeah, 84 to 83. Based on family history, Kai's first kid is due ca. 2050.

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if the Gulf Stream broke in the next 10 years. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's still working in its current configuration in 25.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 2:30 PM
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85: I'll be hitting you up for a rec.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 2:33 PM
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88

I was thinking I should start vaping, but I don't really want to be That Guy.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:28 PM
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I was just watching a committee hearing on the topic of regulating e-cigarettes identically to other tobacco products, and a long line of vaping store owners came in to express their opposition. There was a distinct That Guy vibe (some left their hats on throughout!).


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 08-19-15 4:45 PM
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I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's still working in its current configuration in 25.

I intend to be dead in 25 years, but if the gulf stream sees me out I'll be pleasantly surprised.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 08-20-15 4:06 AM
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62: We're driving home this weekend, trying to find the least smoky route. It looks hopeless.

Maybe try to go past Mile marker 420 on US-95


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 08-20-15 8:39 AM
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90: Which current would you like your funeral ship set upon?


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 08-20-15 11:51 AM
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91 -- That's next week: I have to be in Moscow on Friday.

Here's the situation today: https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoise/photos/a.220225831328915.62894.205950409423124/1096990033652486/


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 08-20-15 9:48 PM
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92. Probably doesn't exist yet, or will be going in the opposite direction if it does. If the gulf stream fails, given that England is doomed to have a Tory government forever, I expect to be put on an ice flow in about 2030.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 08-21-15 3:09 AM
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By then there won't be any ice floes left, though.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 08-21-15 4:44 AM
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I though the narrative was that if the gulf stream collapsed northern Europe would have arctic winters for a few decades until it warmed up.

Oh well, they'll just toss me in the landfill then.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 08-21-15 4:53 AM
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Yeah, if the Gulf Stream changes direction, the UK is going to be much colder, I believe. In terms of latitude, the UK is really really far north. Scotland is the same latitude as southern Alaska.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 08-21-15 5:00 AM
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Oh yeah, right.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 08-21-15 5:29 AM
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If the gulf stream fails, given that England is doomed to have a Tory government forever, I expect to be put on an ice flow in about 2030.

chris's comment contains SPOILERS for Game of Thrones season 6.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 08-21-15 5:49 AM
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