Re: Guest Post - Who writes this show anyway?

1

I can only comprehend Hitler as a comic book villain.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 10:56 AM
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To plagiarize, reality should be the nitpicky fan's dream, as it prioritizes continuity over story and plot.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 10:57 AM
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Agreed with Heebie's take. The rage and viciousness of the right is not realistic.

Also the VW subplot is silly. Nobody is stupid enough to think they can get away with that.


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 10:58 AM
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4

Our response to the ongoing environmental collapse feels like something out of Game of Thrones. Mean and petty plotting in ignorance of a looming extinction threat.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 11:02 AM
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Now that I think of it, an ending to GoT where everyone in Westeros dies of starvation due to not preparing for winter, while narratively dissatisfying, could be quite the galvanizing event IRL.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 11:06 AM
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4: No spoilers.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 11:07 AM
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6: Moby has only watched up to 2007.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 11:52 AM
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I think 4, whether or not it's intended as an allegory, is a pretty big thing in the books and very clearly intentional. You've got not just a very hard winter coming on in the middle of a resource draining conflict, but a massive threat terrifying threat sliding in slowly but ruthlessly from the north that practically everyone is just ignoring entirely. I wouldn't be at all surprised if things turn out badly for Westeros generally.

I doubt it would galvanize much of anything in the real world, though.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 11:55 AM
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9

I rooting for the skraeling or whatever he's calling them.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 11:57 AM
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10

Am I the only one who's never heard of "21st Century"?


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:01 PM
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10: Yes.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:02 PM
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10 is great.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:03 PM
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13

Don't even try asking people about 58th century.


Posted by: OPINIONATED JEW | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:07 PM
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Oh, wait.

Huh.

I see.

Well, hey, I've always been gullible, awright? I try and I try, but still it gets me, though I like to think less often.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:10 PM
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10: It's an insurance company.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:14 PM
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Meanwhile, speaking of social media, I found it interesting to read that It only takes 30 social media posts to influence your congressman.

Hm. Maybe Facebook and twitter should be taken more seriously.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:17 PM
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That would explain why my congressman is trying so many new slow-cooker recipes.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:18 PM
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14: I recommend the post criticizing the plot and writing of the History Channel's series called "World War II." Funny stuff, IMO, and more obvious than the link in the OP. Here's a link, and Stross linked to it as well.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:45 PM
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If I can make this into a political thread for a moment, I've been most interested, in all the post-Dem debate chatter, in the fact checking.

This site alleges that Sanders misrepresented his Social Security claims:

Sanders claimed Social Security's finances could be extended and benefits expanded by simply taxing incomes above the current cap of $118,500.
Sanders: And the way you expand [Social Security] is by lifting the cap on taxable incomes so that you do away with the absurdity of a millionaire paying the same amount into the system as somebody making $118,000. You do that, Social Security is solvent until 2061 and you can expand benefits.
...
But Sanders failed to mention two key points.
First, those subjected to the higher taxes would see no benefit from them. Unlike current payroll taxes, the new levies would not be used as a basis for calculating future benefits for those paying them, a sharp break from historical practice.
Second, benefits would eventually have to be cut anyway.
The actuary estimated that under current law the system could pay only 77 percent of scheduled benefits starting in 2033. Under the Sanders plan to tax the affluent, expanded benefits could be paid for 32 years longer, but then Social Security could support only 88 percent of promised benefits.

Look again at that last paragraph. This 'correction' doesn't seem to me like much of one: it states that (a) those paying the additional payroll taxes won't see any increase in benefits themselves (boo-hoo), and (b) under Sanders' plan, expanded benefits could be paid until 2065, but thereafter they'd have to reduced.

Uh, what am I missing about what's bad or misleading about Sanders' statement?


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:45 PM
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19: Gullible, but not gullible enough for FactCheck.org.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:51 PM
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Wait, so the problem is that Sanders said 2061, but their calculation was 2065?

As much as I long for better fact checking in the press, it's hard to ignore how much false equivalence goes on when you do see any.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:55 PM
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Also wow that general analysis is a whole lot of bullshit. Like half their 'falsehoods and misleading claims' are just 'but they didn't say something different'.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:58 PM
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It seems to boil down to "he shouldn't have put a positive spin on increased solvency."


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:58 PM
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He neglected to mention that having the rich pay higher taxes might involve the rich having less money.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 12:59 PM
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Right, thanks for the corroboration: I read that thing a few times trying to be sure that I wasn't just missing something.

This is a substantive, significant policy proposal on Sanders' part, and for all one hears people pointing out that raising the goddamn cap on payroll taxes would address the problem for some time, I hadn't realized Bernie had actual proposed legislation.

It leads me to wonder: if (when) Bernie doesn't become the Democratic nominee for President, can he hang on to his Senate seat? I haven't heard anything about that. I know that Vermont doesn't have official party affiliations: perhaps he is simultaneously running for Pres. and running for reelection as VT Senator.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:08 PM
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Fact checking the fact checkers, the most useless pasttime on the internet.
They got this totally wrong:

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley claimed that "70 percent of us are earning the same, or less than we were 12 years ago." Not true. Average weekly earnings for rank-and-file workers are up 5.8 percent.

FRED says nope, median weekly real earnings index for full-time employees is identical to Q2 2001 which was the peak prior to the last recession (if you take the literal "12 years" and do Q3 2003, it's up 1.2%). In fact it's only up 1.8% from 1979.
Now, note the weasel "average earnings" in the response. He didn't say average of all workers, he said "70% of us" which is best determined by looking at median.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:09 PM
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Sanders is not up for reelection in 2016, Leahy is.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:11 PM
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Technically, I think the median might be closer to 50% of us than 70% of us.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:14 PM
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27: Oh. Thanks. So ... he hangs on to his Senate seat. Thank god.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:14 PM
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Uh, what am I missing about what's bad or misleading about Sanders' statement?

I agree that it seems mostly seems like they're quibbling. But the way in which I see Sanders' statement is misleading is if you think the two options people are deciding between are (1) increase the payroll tax and count that as part of the SS budget or (2) allow SS to run a deficit and finance the difference out of general revenues.

The decision isn't usually framed that way (it's usually presented as a choice between (1) above or (3) cut benefits). But from that perspective his proposal looks like it's closer to being a general tax increase and then funding SS out of the main budget. Here's the description from the link:

It would increase future benefit payments and partially pay for that by applying employment and self-employment payroll tax not only to earnings up to the current cap, but also over $250,000, and by levying a new 6.2 percent tax on investment income over $200,000 for a single person or $250,000 for married couples filing jointly, with no upper limit on the amount to be taxed.

Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:15 PM
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Now, note the weasel "average earnings" in the response.

The thing that I was suspicious of, in their response, is that it didn't mention inflation. It would be possible for dollar incomes to be up 5.8% and for purchasing power to nevertheless decline.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:16 PM
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26: Now, note the weasel "average earnings" in the response.

Yeah, I did notice that. Who are these factcheck.org people?


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:16 PM
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it didn't mention inflation

Reading further I see that they do clarify that their statistic uses inflation-adjusted values. That's good.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:18 PM
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31- Yeah, I don't know what data they're using. FRED has weekly wage data non-inflation adjusted for non-supervisory (which I guess is "rank-and-file") but it's actually up much more than 5.8% over 12 year, since inflation is up way over 5.8% in 12 years (about 30% to be precise.)


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:19 PM
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Yeah, I don't know what data they're using.

They link to this data: Data Type: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS OF PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES, 1982-84 DOLLARS


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:24 PM
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36

Moving the start date on that series back to 1975 or so is interesting.


Posted by: Bave | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:27 PM
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37

Either way, moving the goalposts to averages is very shady.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:29 PM
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38

Back to 21st Century... What is up with the storyline about futuristic things like flying cars. When do we get those again? Also hoverboards?


Posted by: JD Marron | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:32 PM
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39

We all have hoverboards and agreed not to tell you.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:33 PM
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40

If by interesting you mean really depressing.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:37 PM
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41

40 to literature.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:39 PM
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42

We have a global communications network, which people mostly use to watch other people play video games.


Posted by: Tom Scudder | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 1:44 PM
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18: Ha, thanks for reminding me about that. Going to go post a link to that on the other place (maybe I'll influence my congressman).


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 2:42 PM
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26 - My immediate reaction to that "check" was to be really suspicious about the shift from 70% to "Average" but I was too lazy to actually go digging around for data. I'm glad to see that my skepticism was on the mark and that they're a bunch of dishonest hacks.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 2:47 PM
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45

Somebody very recently put up a new Little Free Library near me. The bastards.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 2:50 PM
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46

I guess it could be a birdhouse with a poorly planned door so far as usefulness to birds is considered. I rode by quickly.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 2:51 PM
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47

Someplace to leave Lord Jim either way.


Posted by: clew | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 6:28 PM
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48

It's close enough to the bar that I could grab something if people are boring me.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 6:40 PM
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49

They probably have a rule about "no birds" or something.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 6:43 PM
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50

At the bar? It's just as well. Nothing looks as loaned as a loaned bird.


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 6:55 PM
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51

Plus, they need to be careful not to let in a mynah.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 7:02 PM
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52

50: Nice.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 7:08 PM
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53

Bravo..


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 7:11 PM
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54

Heebie is completely right.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 7:22 PM
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55

50 New mouseover.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 10-14-15 7:33 PM
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56

Zeitgeist is lovely anyway, for its central conceit, for name-chacking bin Laden back in 1999, for the American One and the German One, and best of all for its extremely meta final confrontation.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10-15-15 3:38 AM
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57

Only thing better than an engineer is an opinionated engineer.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 10-15-15 4:59 PM
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58

That guy didn't even consider a cob wall.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10-15-15 5:13 PM
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Only thing better than an engineer is an opinionated engineer.

See also this.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 10-15-15 5:20 PM
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And as I noted in a comment below, the design of this program really wasn't easy; they had to iterate through quite a lot of trial solutions before they could come up with a final one.

Yipes.


Posted by: nosflow | Link to this comment | 10-15-15 6:52 PM
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57 and 59 are pretty good.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 10-19-15 2:40 AM
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