The shame factor will probably help him in primaries, but hurt in caucuses. At least that would conform to my preconceived theory that he's going to under-perform in Iowa, a la Dean 2004.
I suspect that in general the conservative establishment is exaggerating their dislike of Trump and Cruz.
I suspect that in general the conservative establishment is exaggerating their dislike of Trump and Cruz.
Maybe Cruz, but Trump really is a wildcard. He doesn't owe the establishment anything. When you can't even count on Bush's SC appointees to vote down Obamacare, are you going to trust Trump to replace Ginsberg and Scalia and potentially give the game away for a generation?
yeah but 4 is not the type of calculation that voters are making.
I was responding to 2/3 ("the conservative establishment").
I think Trump will flame out late, Dean-style. I have absolutely no idea who rises from the ashes. It seems reasonable that Trump-type voters will recognize Cruz as a kindred spirit who is actually qualified and somewhat less of a buffoon, but who knows with these people.
4:
Yeah, they'd definitely prefer Cruz to Trump.
In fact, I think the establishment distaste for Cruz is almost entirely a fabrication. The guy went to Princeton, Harvard Law, and met his wife while they were working together on the Bush campaign; he went on to serve as a legal adviser to the administration, she as an economic one. His wife now works in a group at Goldman that works with ultra-high net worth individuals. His pedigree is as establishment as it gets.
He has some pretty major breaks with the party line on immigration and national security, but I think these can be written off as largely strategic -- he's picked issues on which he knows his hands are really tied as a senator and will be as President, like the NSA's wiretapping and the use of drone strikes.
This works for two reasons. First, he conveniently gets to appear to stand in opposition to Obama at the same time as he gets to point out that the party line is to support the same actions as Obama does. Second, he won't have to make good on these things and can, in private, credibly assure the kinds of people who are concerned about this that it's going to be business-as-usual when he gets into office.
To wealthier donors, Cruz has made much of his political acumen and his ability to bring disparate factions of the Republican party together in a way that the others can't. There's a strong wave of anti-establishment sentiment in the Republican party, so I think there's a strong incentive for Ted Cruz to ride the wave as much as possible, even if that means choosing not to court the establishment vote.
Also, the reasons that the party leaders don't like Cruz really have little to do with ideology. They mostly don't like him because he's opportunistic, breaks rank, and is completely self-serving[1]. But ideologically on taxes, guns, health care, and reproductive authoritarianism, they'd line up behind him just as happily as they would behind Mitt Romney.
[1] He can afford to grandstand in this way because he's from Texas. What are Texans going to do, elect a Democrat?
I think 7 is mostly true, but understates how much non-ideological animus Cruz has accrued because he is a world-historical asshole who cannot disguise his contempt for everyone else in the room. I mean, when you've been remembered for decades as a particularly awful prick by members of the Princeton debate team, are there more worlds of prickdom to conquer?
Also, his dad is nutty and voluble, and his no-exceptions anti-choice stance is going to kill him with white Republican woman that are open to voting for Hillary. (Plus he looks like Grandpa Munster giving out candy from the back of his van.) I think the Republican establishment, such as it is, is right to prefer Rubio even if it's not on policy lines.
7: I think all of that reasoned analysis about Cruz is besides the point. They don't like him because they don't like him. Not everyone at Harvard likes everyone at Harvard.
8: when you've been remembered for decades as a particularly awful prick by members of the Princeton debate team, are there more worlds of prickdom to conquer?
USA! USA!
I keep waiting for someone on the debate stage to point out that the alleged "Ted" Cruz is really a Canadian guy named Rafael.
8: In my day the members of the Princeton debate team were generally good people--it was Yale that the whole circuit hated with fiery abandon.
8: Plus he looks like Grandpa Munster giving out candy from the back of his van.
I admit this is an excellent characterization. A friend insists Cruz looks like PeeWee Herman, but I don't see that so much. Grandpa Munster it is.
Do you really think Herman was my son? People say it the eyes show the resemblance, but I think Grandma Munster was a Franken-groupie.
The actor who played grandpa Munster ran for governor on NY on the Green Party line a decade or so ago. I hope Cruz doesn't look like him.
Cruz mostly looks like Joseph McCarthy.
I keep waiting for someone on the debate stage to point out that the alleged "Ted" Cruz is really a Canadian guy named Rafael.
Trump has been using a line about not many evangelicals coming from Cuba, which at least gestures in that direction.
But would anyone who likes Cruz even be opposed to McCarthy?
We had a preK teacher who kept calling Jammies "Rafael", which cracked me up - all that she remembered is that it was a white guy with a mismatched name, and she went with that.
Well all of those white guys with mismatched names do look the same.
Oh hey, Heebie you didn't get flooded too badly last week did you? Driving home the sky looked really ominous over Heebieville. Then I got stormed on for the rest of my drive home.
I know a white guy named "Rafael". I'm not sure if it is mismatched. I always assumed his mom was old-school Italian or a huge TMNT fan.
There was one meet-up when a lurker walked up and said, "Excuse me, do any of you have a tattoo that says 'Dick' on your arm?" which was pretty great.
A true TMNT fan would know it's spelled "Raphael".
I don't understand 24.
I mean, it's obviously great but I feel like I'm missing a reference.
There's a way they shove pigment into your skin. They call the resulting picture a "tattoo".
26: Jammies had just gotten his tattoo, which is the word Dick, tattooed in small letters on his arm. (It's a replica of the tattoo his Grandpa Dick had.)