Re: Bail outs

1

What is it at this point, like four tweets?


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 10:47 AM
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2

That exchange from December looks like a win for Trump, to me. I mean, a demented fantasy land creepy person win, but that's what's been working for him so far. Some arabic muslim guy thinks he's bad and unAmerican, and Trump responds with "you can't buy me I'm already a billionaire!" That's like half his campaign right there.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 11:42 AM
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3

Personally, I'm amazed he hasn't been attacked more for being a daddy's boy who inherited all of his wealth and did worse with it than an index fund would have. Serious business people think the guy is a joke.


Posted by: Trivers | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 11:49 AM
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4

Is this the Break Out thread because, oops, I did it again.


Posted by: Opinionated El Chapo | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 12:04 PM
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5

Hoax, never mind.


Posted by: Opinionated El Chapo | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 12:29 PM
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6

Yeah, I think Trump gets the better of that one in the real world of US politics - Arab princes aren't going to win that kind of PR battle in this country.

And on merits, Trump is right that the Prince is a big holder of Fox - second largest to the Murdoch clan, I think, with roughly 6.5 percent of the company. So what if he uses a photo illustration to make his point?

And the Prince is wrong to say he bailed Trump out. He bought stuff from Trump.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 12:34 PM
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7

I think the bailout line (though, yeah, it's not really that true) would have been a good attack line against Trump, but it's probably too late for it. If you can get in early enough to influence peoples' perceptions of a candidate on something important - and 'gets bailed out a bunch' or 'owes stuff to those people would have been good ones - it might have had a really strong impact. But you can't get very far trying to convince supporters that their main/biggest impression of a candidate is fundamentally mistaken.* And "businessperson who is a winner" has been Trump's brand for a really, really long time now, so trying to convince people that he isn't probably wouldn't be very effective (or at least not without a massive investment in it).

*This is why I'm willing to bet that while Clinton's all out barrage of attacks will hurt Sanders a lot (and his refusal to fire back will make it even worse), the "wants to repeal Obamacare and eliminate Medicare" line isn't going to have any effect, because even if it wasn't a (really appalling) lie it's way too far from the public impression of him and what his campaign is selling to come off as anything but nonsense.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 12:42 PM
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8

Is someone going to explain to Trump that you can't engage in twitter wars with foreign royalty when you are president? Or are we just going to enter a world where where world leaders act like twerpy internet trolls?


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 1:43 PM
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9

Someone's tried, anyway.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 1:44 PM
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10

8
that ship has already sailed


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 2:02 PM
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11

Argentina under the Kirchners might be a good general guide to what the US would look like under Trump, actually.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 2:13 PM
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11

I look forward to President Melania Trump then in 2024.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 2:16 PM
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They'd have to amend the constitution to make her eligible, but I'm sure Donald would find a way.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 2:23 PM
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+1 to 2 and 6. Just looks like Trump doing more of the same stuff which got him this far in the first place.


Posted by: real ffeJ annaH | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 2:36 PM
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And on merits, Trump is right that the Prince is a big holder of Fox - second largest to the Murdoch clan, I think, with roughly 6.5 percent of the company. So what if he uses a photo illustration to make his point?

In the context of Trump's explicitly xenophobic campaign, the photoshopped picture is pretty racist.

On the original topic: although of course Trump is a horrible person, buffoon, and unadmirable businessman, "bailout" still seems overstating it. They both came out ahead - Trump cleared enough of his debts to move forward and the Prince got some assets presumably at a cut-rate price.

It's similar to my annoyance at the descriptions of Trump's bankruptcy history as somehow inherently dishonest or dishonorable. Given the cyclical, risky business he's in and the number of ventures made over the decades, though I don't know specifics, I can't see three bankruptcies as an a priori sign of gaming the system. Give me some investigative journalism into the subject, but until then, it strikes me as risking tarnishing the very concept of bankruptcy, which is a good one.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 2:47 PM
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16

How could Trump inherit all his wealth when his father had five kids? Presumably the inheritance would have been split five ways, leaving each kid with less than $20M after taxes. Are the rest of the Trump siblings also billionaires? The idea that he's not been a success at real estate just doesn't fly.


Posted by: bjk | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 4:06 PM
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17

That's the marvel of long term investing. if he inherited $40 million in 1974 then put it in the S&P 500 then he'd have $3-4 billion today.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 4:11 PM
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18

https://www.quora.com/Did-Donald-Trump-inherit-a-lot-of-money-and-then-increase-his-net-worth-at-an-unremarkable-rate


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 4:12 PM
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And Fred Trump died in 1999. It's unlikely he wanted to hand $40-$200M to Donald before he died. How many wealthy parents hand over their entire fortune to their kids before they (the parents) die? Fred probably held onto the money till his death or let Donald run the business at some point, without Donald owning the business. And Donald didn't want to own garden apartments in the Bronx, so I don't really see him running that business.


Posted by: bjk | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 4:13 PM
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20

Or Queens. Probably not many garden apartments in the Bronx.


Posted by: bjk | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 4:16 PM
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21

Has anybody tried to separate the "owning and managing real estate" part of Trump's fortune from the "being on TV and licensiing his name" part? I imagine the former is a mediocre business with poor long-term returns and the latter is extremely profitable (but hard to sustain; the "Ivanka" brand extension has had middling success).


Posted by: Yawnoc | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 4:28 PM
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22

I actually read the book by Trump's lawyer, George Ross. He says that Trump's method is to find some property with what are considered insurmountable obstacles to development (zoning/neighbors/etc), buy the property for cheap with lots of leverage, then use his connections to get the obstacles removed. So it's not unreasonable that he managed to build up a large fortune following that formula, especially in the 70s-80s NY real estate market.


Posted by: bjk | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 4:47 PM
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Has anybody tried to separate the "owning and managing real estate" part of Trump's fortune from the "being on TV and licensiing his name" part?

Probably comes up for taxes.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 6:17 PM
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24

Forbes has been monitoring this for decades. They say his net worth is $4.2b, of which $253m is "real estate licensing deals, brand, and branded developments". He values that same category at $3.3b and a grand total of $8.7b.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 6:40 PM
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25

Wait, so Trump just goes around saying his net worth is twice what it's been assessed to be? God, what a blowhard.


Posted by: Trivers | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 6:42 PM
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26

His appeal to blue-collar people just continues to astound me. I just don't see how they can't tell he's just the rich boss's son pretending he made it where he was through hard work.


Posted by: Trivers | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 6:44 PM
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27

Ladies and gentlemen, when I started this company I had just two things to my name: a dream, and six million dollars.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 6:45 PM
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26

I get it. Trump is a working class fantasy of what obscene amounts of money looks like. I read someone saying something along the lines of: there's Old Money, Nouveau Riche, and Trump, who spends money like the guy in the trailer next to you who just won the billion dollar jackpot


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:03 PM
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29

That's basically John Mulaney's line: "Donald Trump is a hobo's idea of a rich person"


Posted by: foolishmortal | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:11 PM
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30

I know what it would take to bring him down in the polls, but it won't be pretty.

Someone on the debate stage needs to take one for the team and just beat the crap out of the guy. I vote for Christie, but I think most of those guys could probably take him. This race is about violence and bullying because that's all a significant part of the base understands. Once that happens, they'll all drift to whoever did it, even if he gets an assault charge.


Posted by: Trivers | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:22 PM
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24: Net worth might not be the right metric. A luxury golf resort might lose money hand over fist, but it's a big asset. Slapping your name on a board game is pure profit.


Posted by: Yawnoc | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:22 PM
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32

Trump, who spends money like the guy in the trailer next to you who just won the billion dollar jackpot

That's more Elvis than Trump. I think the fantasy isn't how he spends it but how he treats others and the idea that "deals" are how you make money.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:24 PM
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33

I don't even like Elvis music, but I don't see the point of having that kind of money and not spending like he did. Especially the jumpsuits.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:25 PM
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34

The first two times I read 30.2, I read, "beat the crap out of they guy," as a metaphor for strong rhetoric, which just goes to show what a milquetoast Trump I am.


Posted by: Yawnoc | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:27 PM
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35

Trump gold-plates the seat belts on his private jet. That's worth a few bedazzled jumpsuits.


Posted by: Yawnoc | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:28 PM
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36

Elvis didn't fuck around with 2nd Amendment rallies. He just shot the fucking TV.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:29 PM
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35: My parents have silver plate on their tea set. That's not even worth a tacky cardigan.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:32 PM
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38

Apparently, older relatives just figured that's the kind of thing a couple in their circumstances should have so they gave them a silver tea set. I don't think it was ever used after 1975 or so.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:37 PM
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39

I don't even know if it's expensive--you can get gold leaf on a hot fudge sundae FFS--but it sure as hell is tacky.


Posted by: Yawnoc | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:41 PM
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40

It wasn't all rhinestone jumpsuits. Elvis was also constantly getting ripped off by The Colonel.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:43 PM
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41

My hot fudge sundae is the biggest one you've ever seen. It's yuge. It's the most gold plated fudge sundae you've ever seen. And it's so classy. It's the classiest gold-plated sundae you have seen. Melania loves fudge. She tells me, "Donald, this fudge is the best fudge I've ever had." I'm gonna make America great. I'm gonna gold plate the White house. Because you know what is classier than a white house? A gold house. It's going to be so classy.


Posted by: Opinionated Donald Trump | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:46 PM
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42

Net worth might not be the right metric. A luxury golf resort might lose money hand over fist, but it's a big asset. Slapping your name on a board game is pure profit.

What exactly are you hoping to measure? I'm unclear.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 7:54 PM
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43

Think "hand stretching".


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 8:08 PM
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44

42: His net income, I suppose. Just because he owns a lot of land doesn't mean that's where the profit is coming from. The brand stuff is relatively low-value as an asset (it won't transfer or depreciate well) but high-profit; it should contribute disproportionately to his cash flow.


Posted by: Yawnoc | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 8:13 PM
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45

Because the topic is 70s music, I'll just mention that someone in the bar keeps playing "Jolene". Dolly Parton really can sing.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 8:15 PM
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46

In Trump's defense, I will say that Melania is very attractive.


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 8:20 PM
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47

I have yuuuge tracts of land.


Posted by: Opinionated Donald Trump | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 8:25 PM
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48

Trump would easily secure the position of supervisor of the Sunnyvale Trailer Park.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 8:49 PM
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49

That's basically John Mulaney's line: "Donald Trump is a hobo's idea of a rich person"

Oh, dear. That just won't do. Not our kind of hobo at all.


Posted by: hobo consultant | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 10:57 PM
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50

I'm not sure "Trump is so classless, he figured out a way to inherit nouveau riche status" is the right strategy for damaging his common-man appeal.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 11:03 PM
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51

44: Maybe; maybe we'll see with campaign disclosure. But the advantage of net worth as a metric is that it folds in security of income: the income Trump makes from branding is even more volatile and tenuous than what can be gotten from real estate, I bet. For example, if he wanted to withdraw from public life, his brand value would wane pretty rapidly. And who knows what all his current idiocy will do to it in the long run - viz., he already burned his bridges with Univision et al.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 01-31-16 11:32 PM
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I dunno, he could have a lucrative career ahead of him playing telenovela villains, I mean, after his presidency.


Posted by: MHPH | Link to this comment | 02- 1-16 8:24 AM
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