Re: Timeline

1

I'm pretty much assuming we are utterly boned by global warming. Too many powerful interests on the wrong side. Eventually people will catch on, but not before lots of awful stuff happens. OTOH, it's a good time to be doing research on carbon-neutral energy, so there's that.


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 1:39 PM
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2

Now I feel better about the election.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 1:39 PM
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3

The point is to compare the top few inches to the bottom two, right?


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 2:08 PM
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4

When xkcd doesn't suck it really doesn't suck.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 3:57 PM
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5

3: You measure from the base, fully stretched, if that's what you're asking.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 3:58 PM
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6

I'm kind of mad that he didn't call Glacial Lake Missoula by name though.


Posted by: E. Messily | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 5:01 PM
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6: Inorite. It wasn't just Oregon, man.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:21 PM
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8

This is indeed one of his better recent ones.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:26 PM
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9

He misspelled "Attila," though. Also, the "Polynesians" around 1000 BCE must refer to the Lapita expansion, but that long predates the emergence of the Polynesian language family proper.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:34 PM
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10

If they were advanced enough to sail the Pacific, maybe they were advanced enough to speak a language that didn't exist.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:46 PM
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11

But this sort of thing is always going to end up with a few minor errors, so I don't hold it against him.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:47 PM
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12

10: Those seem like different skills, somehow.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:47 PM
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13

Right, but it's not like linguists found a coconut 8-track player so they know what the guys in the boats were saying.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:49 PM
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14

It's certainly true that a certain amount of inference from indirect evidence is involved in reconstructing the history of a language family.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:50 PM
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I looked it up. The language before the Polynesian language is called proto-Polynesian. That seems a very minor distinction.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:55 PM
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16

Lapita was long before that and is generally associated with the spread of the proto-Oceanic language, which is ancestral to many other languages besides proto-Polynesian.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 7:59 PM
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17

I didn't look back that far.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:01 PM
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18

Well, that's your fault, not mine.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:01 PM
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19

I blame Wikipedia.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:02 PM
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Seriously, though, there's a really interesting literature on the relationship between linguistics and archaeology in understanding the prehistory of the Pacific. I read a bit of it a few months back.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:02 PM
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21

If only the 8-track were stone, not coconut.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:05 PM
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22

Are the lapita peoples the people who ended up in Flores and PNG and such? Who left Taiwan? Where do the Negritos fit into this?


Posted by: foolishmortal | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:08 PM
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23

7: Oregon -> Washington?


Posted by: E. Messily | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:15 PM
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24

No, the Lapita are the ones who left PNG and settled the islands between there and Fiji/Tonga/Samoa, some of which were already inhabited. The people who left Taiwan are general thought to have spoken Proto-Malayo-Polynesian, which includes all the non-Formosan Austronesian languages, but it's not clear what the archaeological correlates are exactly. The Negritos are generally thought to be remnant pre-Austronesian populations, some of whom eventually adopted Austronesian languages though maybe with some substrate influence from their previous languages. There's a standard introductory work on the Austronesians available for free download, although I haven't actually read it myself.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:15 PM
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25

Did he edit it to change Oregon to Washington?


Posted by: E. Messily | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:28 PM
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24: Thank you very much. This is actually a question that's been bothering me for a while (Polynesian origins) and I now have more data than I could have hoped for. Much appreciated.


Posted by: foolishmortal | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:34 PM
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I could have sworn it originally read Oregon, but either way, it was both and more. I guess I shouldn't expect too much precision in an xkcd comic.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:35 PM
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26: No problem. Like I said, I'm hardly an expert but I have read a fair amount of the relevant recent literature and can at least point you in the right direction if you have follow-up questions.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:42 PM
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29

It said Oregon. Washington has the scablands, which is a lot more dramatic than whatever the Willamette has.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:54 PM
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30

What I wonder about are the two (at least) references to changes in the earth's orbit. What exactly is he talking about?


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 8:59 PM
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31

Oh.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 9:09 PM
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32

Milankovich cycles, I believe.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 9:09 PM
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33

pwned.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 9:09 PM
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34

Milankovic cycles?


Posted by: foolishmortal | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 9:10 PM
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35

So pwned.


Posted by: foolishmortal | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 9:11 PM
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29: also the Channeled Scablands is my favorite name in geology.


Posted by: E. Messily | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 9:16 PM
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37

Milankovitch cycles, I think they might be called.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 11:07 PM
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38

Two science threads? Which is the right one for saying that it looks like dolphins can talk?
Maybe someone should warn them about global warming.


Posted by: Awl | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 11:12 PM
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39

Nah. They're assholes.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 11:26 PM
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40

If I were named Milankovitch or Kondratiev it'd be hard to keep me from naming a bike shop after myself.


Posted by: One of Many | Link to this comment | 09-12-16 11:47 PM
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38 They talk a lot; but they're not saying anything.


Posted by: Opinionated Psycho Killer | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 12:08 AM
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42

I hear their tongues make good eating.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 1:31 AM
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There seem to be three different ways of spelling Milankovitch. Milankovich himself spelled it Миланковић though his non-Serb colleagues might have spelled it Milankovic.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 1:44 AM
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44

GOOD EGG. I CALL THIS REALLY INGENIOUS.


Posted by: Opinionated T.E. Lawrence | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 1:45 AM
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45

Eventually people will catch on, but not before lots of awful stuff happens.

Lots of awful stuff seems to be happening already in Florida and the Carolina coast (staying with America for now), and it turns out that nobody gives a shit anyway apart from the people who live there.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 4:01 AM
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The dolphin conversation thing makes me think about extraordinary claims and how they demand extraordinary evidence. Maybe they were having a conversation, maybe they were doing something completely different. Maybe something that wouldn't even make sense to humans. Who knows?


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 4:11 AM
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47

We have conversations, but not in a way you can understand them.


Posted by: Opinionated Dolphin | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 5:25 AM
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48

Telegraph science story so no possible danger of hyping for clicks.


Posted by: NW | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 6:09 AM
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49

The over-reaching conclusions of the quoted researcher, combined with the uh, let's say, modest impact factor journal this is sourced from, have led me to unilateral eyebrow muscle strain.


Posted by: Swope FM | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 6:23 AM
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45 God promised Noah no more floods so the people in the Carolinas and Florida are in the vanguard of not giving a shit about climate change.

I was going to saw 'tell it to the channeled scablands' but I guess the promise came after that anyway. So, 'tell it to the Cajuns' it is.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 6:37 AM
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51

Was that storm even out of the ordinary? Florida has always been an uninhabitable hellhole.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 7:02 AM
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52

If that's to me, I wasn't thinking of the storm, which my peeps in Jax seem to have weathered without incident, but Miami.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 7:17 AM
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53

Got it.

With this increase, in just 30 years' time, flood-prone locations in Miami-Dade County's coastal communities would face roughly 380 high-tide flood events per year, and the extent of tidal floods would expand to affect new low-lying locations, including many low-income communities with limited resources for preparedness measures.

If I understand tides correctly, there are only 730 of them a year. If you get covered by the tide 380 times, I don't think you can call it a "flood event." You're part of the ocean.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 7:21 AM
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54

53.2 was supposed to be in block quotes. It's from the link in 52.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 7:21 AM
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55

Anyway, isn't it pretty much a given than large parts of Florida are just gone? Even without much of a rising sea level, they've been pumping out or diverting the fresh water that holds up the ground they building on.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 7:32 AM
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56

God can keep his word and still flood a lot of coastal land.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 8:09 AM
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57

They build firmly on the rock of faith. In federal bailouts.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 8:10 AM
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56: Yes. He only promised to ever kill almost everybody in a flood.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 8:13 AM
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53 is a very good point. Miami, like the pirates of old, will meet its fate where the tides ebb and flow twice in twenty-four hours.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 8:17 AM
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They'll be fine. It'll be like the big drifting flotilla in Snow Crash, but with superyachts in the middle, anchored to the flooded towers of the city.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:03 AM
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If Miami is under water every/most high tide, does that mean we can't count it for determining territorial waters/EEZ?


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:04 AM
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No, you can't. But the standard for islands (versus "high-tide features") is apparently "ability to sustain life", so I don't know how Waterworld-Miami would fare.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:09 AM
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Can't count it for EEZ, that is. You can for territorial waters.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:24 AM
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I assume that "ability to sustain life" is empirically determined by marooning people and checking back on them in a few weeks.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:29 AM
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65

That sort of thing is frowned upon in The Hague.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:36 AM
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66

Judging somewhere as "unable to sustain life" just because it's below mean high tide level is probably also frowned upon in the Hague.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:42 AM
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67

A severe and subtle people, the Dutch.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:48 AM
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68

I have an image of a highly cultured Dutch lawyer remarking that living in Miami would be utterly intolerable whether it was below mean high tide level or not.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:50 AM
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69

But the standard for islands (versus "high-tide features") is apparently "ability to sustain life"

"I know that godforsaken rock is a 20 km from our coast, but there's lichen on it if you look closely, so we're going to fish in the deep ocean way beyond it! Neener, neener, neener!


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 9:55 AM
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68: I think the question isn't whether Miami is inhabited, but whether such habitation counts as 'life'.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 10:03 AM
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67 I'm finding them quite hospitable.

Had a meetup with sometime commenter Martin Wisse last night and drank a lot of good beer. Drinking a lot of good beer this evening too until Chani arrives.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 10:15 AM
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68 The he'll with the lawyers. You need yourself a good posse of Dutch hydraulic engineers.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 10:17 AM
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Florida apparently is made of limestone, so if they build dikes the water will just come up through the ground anyway.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 10:26 AM
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72 he'll s/b hell
fucking autocorrect..

I'm btocked.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 10:29 AM
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Which they could pump out, like New Orleans does. But the water would presumably dissolve the ground on the way through, until the entire city collapses into a cenote.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-13-16 10:30 AM
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71. Hope you found Martin in good health.

My takeaway from the link in 52 was that if losing £6.2bn real estate doesn't concentrate minds outside the locality, nothing ever will.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 09-14-16 4:05 AM
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$6.4bn. I know they killed sterling, Chris, but it isn't that bad yet.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-14-16 6:24 AM
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