Re: Treason

1

This is just bizarre. When Trump is impeached, will Pence assume the presidency? What happens if Pence is also compromised?


Posted by: Frostbite | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:12 AM
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One of the few silver linings from this whole nightmare is that from now on, whenever a republican invokes "patriotism", I can laugh in their face and remind them that their party put a bunch of Russian stooges in the white house.


Posted by: AcademicLurker | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:16 AM
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The worrying thing is that if Spencer Ackerman's Operators Vs Analysts thesis is true, well, on one side, the analysts have the keys to all the raw SIGINT and can theoretically keep leaking until they run out of either kompromat or Trumpites to kompromise. What do the operators do well?

Right.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:22 AM
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1. Ryan.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:23 AM
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Depending on the timing, of course. If Trump gets ousted and Pence gets promoted, and then Congress confirms a VP for him -- let's say Cruz -- then Cruz would come before Ryan.

That is, it's bad shit all the way down.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:26 AM
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Would Congress confirm Cruz? Don't they all hate him?


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:33 AM
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6: Maybe they'd confirm him just to get rid of him from their chamber?


Posted by: Mooseking | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:39 AM
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I was just picking the runner-up. As a practical matter, they'd confirm just about anyone Pence would pick. Who he would pick would depend on how badly Trumpismo has been discredited along with Trump. Which probably would have to be pretty thoroughly to get 21 Republican senators to vote to remove him.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:39 AM
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Lindsay Graham is your new VP.

- Safe Republican seat in South Carolina
- Anti-Russian bonafides
- Supported by the militarist wing of the party establishment
- Nobody will be concerned about him turning the VP position into a rival center of power


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:42 AM
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Constitutionally, could Congress theoretically amend the presidential succession act to provide for a new election, instead of continuing to go down the list? Obviously, the GOP would have to be forced to do this kicking and screaming.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 8:59 AM
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Dems win House in 2018, impeach them both, President Pelosi. Then she can piss on the bed where Trump slept.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:01 AM
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11: Ooh, that's a lot better than the other thing I thought of, forcing Pence to appoint a nonpartisan as caretaker and then resign.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:03 AM
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Double the Third, vote by head!


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:03 AM
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I wouldn't piss in a toilet Trump had pissed in, unless I was caught short. I'd like to think Pelosi felt the same way.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:04 AM
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There's also the dark horse VP candidate Evan McMullin, who, unlike almost every other Republican, cannot be held as an accessory to the Trump debacle. And the intelligence community (who apparently run things these days) loves him.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:09 AM
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Compromise: she can set the bed on fire and then piss on it during.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:10 AM
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11 - To get a 2/3 majority in the Senate, the Democrats (and allied I's) would have to win literally every seat in 2018. No way Republicans go along with this. (Admittedly, if the D's walked out with wins in half of the Republican-held seats in 2018, that would indicate enough of a political shift to encourage a few Republican defections.)


Posted by: Tom Scudder | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:10 AM
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Best case scenario is Trump sees that Pence and the Republicans (worst band name ever?) are looking to impeach him, so he spite-fires Pence and appoints an actual leftist, say, Bernie Sanders, as VP to scare the Republicans off from impeaching him. It doesn't work, and we end up with Sanders or Warren or someone like that as president


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:25 AM
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You can't fire a vice president.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:27 AM
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20

Trump can't fire Pence. Pence is VP, not a fireable office.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:27 AM
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1, 5 et al. If Pence resigns or is impeached first, then Trump chooses a new VP, who must be confirmed by both the House and Senate, before his own resignation/impeachment. This is the Nixon/Agnew/Ford gambit, which destroyed Nixon's (alleged) belief that Agnew was impeachment insurance. If this happens when the Democrats have a majority of either House, they will have some leverage over the pick, as they did with Ford.

The Twentieth fifth Amendment provides an alternative method of removing a President, requiring only the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet officers to sign a certification. It also creates an interesting paradox, since the President the Cabinet Members can effectively fire the President, but the President can fire the Cabinet Members, and he may have a file with undated resignation letters from some or all of them. How that will work out will make for some interesting blog posts.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:28 AM
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Moby pwnage is the best pwnage.

Pence seems determined to keep his head down and his nose clean throughout this. I think that's been his game plan all along.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:28 AM
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Trump can't fire Pence. Pence is VP, not a fireable office.

He could probably shoot him in the middle of Fifth Avenue.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:33 AM
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The whole Republican party seems to think it has s Trump put option and they can benefit when his stock rises and sell before it drops. I think they are mistaken on this, but I have been wrong before.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:34 AM
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24: I think it's more that they don't think they have a choice -- Trump is still too popular with the Republican base for them to mess with.



Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:39 AM
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A president (let's denote as N) who wants to get rid of a vice-president (let's denote as A) can certainly make that happen.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:44 AM
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27

Oops, should have looked at 21.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:45 AM
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22: I assume everyone else here was briefly confused when Moby dropped his inside info on Trump and Russia over the weekend.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:48 AM
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Unfortunately I guess the realistic picture is that even if everyone currently in the administration is taken down, the succession is chock full of movement Republicans who will exploit the office and their majorities for all they're worth, and need just as fervent opposition as the current occupant. (And probably try to change the narrative to "I'm legitimate because the vote was for anyone but Hillary.")


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:50 AM
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Trump can get rid of Pence, but can't fire him. It would require lots of help and pressure from other Republicans.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:50 AM
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30

If Trump were to mobilize his base in a Tea Party-type way to oust Pence, other Republicans would go along with it. Of course, then we might end up with Steve Bannon as VP.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:55 AM
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32

Am I being overly pessimistic in thinking the best possible world we can get is a plain-vanilla Republican presidency? That would be awful, but an improvement over the monkey-with-a-gun that is Trump.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:56 AM
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Not sure what 26 has in mind, or what 31 means by "oust Pence". Make him an offer he can't refuse?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 9:57 AM
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34

Release his herpy.net contributions.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:04 AM
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From wikipedia: "In 1980, Agnew published a memoir in which he implied that Nixon and his Chief of Staff, Alexander Haig, had planned to assassinate him if he refused to resign the Vice Presidency, and that Haig told him to "go quietly...or else," the memoir's title"

If a corrupt real estate guy with dealings in New Jersey and Russia wanted me out or else, I'd rather not take my chances.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:08 AM
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32 is my assumption, which only makes me more livid about the utter theft of the November election.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:16 AM
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37

Trump is unlikely to be impeached, but even if he was, Pence would be at least as bad as GWB, who himself may yet turn out to be objectively worse than Trump. This whole thing is just the latest iteration of the bargaining stage of American liberal grief. No one's going to ever have nice things until Democrats learn how to win elections, state and federal.


Posted by: real ffeJ annaH | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:16 AM
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38

It's like we have to play real life 'marry, fuck, or kill' with Trump, Pence, and Paul Ryan.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:18 AM
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39

If Trump were to mobilize his base in a Tea Party-type way to oust Pence, other Republicans would go along with it.

I don't think so; the other Republicans are on Pence's side here. They know Trump is an incompetent, they are just waiting on Pence's word to pull the trigger on impeachment.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:20 AM
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29 - your obvious rhetorical strategy (for whatever that's worth; I hear that a rhetorical strategy and $3.50 will get you coffee at Starbucks) is to refer to the Pence/whoever administration as a "caretaker government" and insist that no major legislation etc. be passed.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:20 AM
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40 was me.


Posted by: Tom Scudder | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:20 AM
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39

Oh sure, but they'd cut Pence loose if they thought they were going to lose their seat. Republicans are happy to put personal power above principle or loyalty.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:30 AM
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43

40 Dems should be doing a variation of that now with the Trump administration under a cloud of suspicion. Just until we can figure out what is going on.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:31 AM
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44

What throws me about this, in terms of what the political consequences are going to be, is that none of this is surprising, really, right? People were writing about Trump being in communication with the Russians long before the election.

At which point I don't know what effect this has. Did Trump voters not believe it was true before the election, or do they just really not care?


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:33 AM
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45

44.2: maybe they never heard about it. I mean, how would they? They don't listen to the LameStream Media.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:34 AM
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46

Republicans are in a prisoners' dilemma situation, and have been since the primary. They all hate Trump, but any one person attacking Trump fails. If they all banded together to take down Trump, they could and probably could have easily in the primaries, but they're all such selfish and cowardly motherfuckers, none of them are willing to do so. As long as Trump has a rabid fan base, he can get individual Republicans to cave to his bidding in a way that keeps them all in line.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:42 AM
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I think 46 is right. They have deliberately disbanded various non-economic bonds and rationals for the country and their party. They have nothing to resist Trump with outside of bare moral ideals and every individual figures that having ideals is a cost that someone else should bear.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:46 AM
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46: That's been his strategy from the time he started his campaign for President.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:46 AM
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49

Ironically, a party with think tanks full of economists is acting like Mancur Olson is a type of mollusk.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:48 AM
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50

There's no such thing as a "plain-vanilla Republican" at least among those in federal office. They all want to take us back to the late 1800s, the only difference among them is how well they can hide their intentions.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:51 AM
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50: I read "vanilla" as about personal style and movement affiliation, not "moderate".


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 10:56 AM
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37: That's not how it works. The voters are morons, and after a while they will give the other party a chance, no matter how shitty that party is. In 2008, if Joe Stalin could have won the Democratic nomination he would have been elected.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:27 AM
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Fortunately the constitution would have disqualified him for not being a citizen by birth. I don't think it says anything about being dead.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:30 AM
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54

Georgians are totally American. One of the founding states, even.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:33 AM
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It says "natural born" so that would exclude reanimated zombies and test tube babies.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:33 AM
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50: Apart from the ones who want to take us back to the late 1700s, of course. And the ones who want to take us back to about 800 BC.


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:43 AM
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55: NO C-section presidents for *my* America!


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:43 AM
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What could be more natural than carving open a woman to help a man make his way in the world?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:45 AM
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44: Did Trump voters not believe it was true before the election, or do they just really not care?

I think they really don't care. This is being pitched by right-wing media as a witch hunt directed toward Trump by the media and leakers. Their countering narrative is that Trump's people were just engaging in understandably responsible diligence in reaching out to various international actors.

Why don't they think said communications with Russian intelligence -- if they even occurred! -- are problematic: they don't believe that any Russian hacking that may have occurred was responsible for Trump's election. That's not why they voted for Trump.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:50 AM
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Trump is unlikely to be impeached,

I would bet $100 that Trump will be impeached. Maybe I could recoup some of my losses from betting $100 that Clinton would win the election.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:52 AM
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Did Trump voters not believe it was true before the election, or do they just really not care?

It seemed like it had no traction at the time. If you look back at TFA, there are plenty of instances of people says "Why the fuck is everyone ignoring this Russia thing?"

So, probably Trump voters didn't care. And if they did they viewed it as a positive... they've all had a crush on Putin for a long time.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:53 AM
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At which point I don't know what effect this has. Did Trump voters not believe it was true before the election, or do they just really not care?

Both. It was most expedient then to not give a shit, in order to get their team elected.

Now they only give a shit insofar as it affects their immediate prospects, "Oh, are we putting our concerned faces on now? Okay, here I am, furrowing my brow."


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:57 AM
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I guess the last line is more about Republican politicians than Trump voters. Trump voters only care now because they're bored and it's interesting. They don't actually give a shit whatsoever about him being treasonous.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:58 AM
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64

55- You did see that a Tennessee state rep proposed calling children conceived by IVF illegitimate?


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 11:59 AM
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65

Trump is totally going to be impeached. The original plan was to wait a while, but now the intelligence community is doing everything it can to force Congress' hand on this. It is becoming in the Republican's interest to get rid of him ASAP, so I expect he'll be out of office by April 15.

Although, if the Democrats are smart, they will figure out how to draw it out much longer than that. Its much better to run down the clock than to give Pence and Republican majorities in Congress with many, many months to go before the midterms arrive.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:00 PM
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I'd love to believe 65, but the rottenness of your body politic is a gift that just keeps giving.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:02 PM
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45: maybe they never heard about it.

This too. I've been dipping into right-wing media -- periodically switching over on the TV to what I and my housemate refer to as "the enemy" (as in "Let's see what the enemy has to say"), this being Fox News -- and man, are they not covering this, or barely at all. Instead it's all about the nutjob lefty activists on college campuses, celebrating their 'black history' with classes on the Black Panther movement (which is obviously pretty much the same as the Klan); or that gay guy who recently wrote an op-ed about how, despite being gay, he's now officially a Conservative, because the left is too fucking politically correct for words; or, let's face it, scantily clad women commentators remarking nonsensically that Ivanka's clothing line IS TOO AWESOME, duh.

For Trump-leaning voters who partake of this menu, all they're hearing is that Flynn was the victim of a political assassination. Lately there's word that Russia is concerned that the Washington establishment may try to assassinate Trump, so they're worried about his safety.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:04 PM
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It seems like impeaching Trump could be used to foment civil war in the Republican party, no? Trump's base doesn't care what he does, they just want a white nationalist bully in office. They *hate* McConnell and Ryan and all the other "cuckservatives." If Trump gets impeached, Republicans lose the Fox News constituency; if he doesn't, they lose the facts-based and realpolitik constituencies.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:06 PM
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64: I had not. Just another example of life running ahead of satire.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:06 PM
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65: Trump is totally going to be impeached. The original plan was to wait a while, but now the intelligence community is doing everything it can to force Congress' hand on this. It is becoming in the Republican's interest to get rid of him ASAP, so I expect he'll be out of office by April 15.

I don't remotely buy this. Paul Ryan wants Trump in office through the 2018 midterms. We'll see, won't we?


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:08 PM
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71

Whats the floor on Trumps favorability ratings? 35%? 27%?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:10 PM
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72

Paul Ryan wants Trump in office through the 2018 midterms.

I absolutely agree that was the original plan. But, if it becomes untenable - which I think it is - the motivation is to get him out as soon as possible. That way, Congress can get on with the process of looting the country, and damage in 2018 will be minimized through the passage of time.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:13 PM
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It seemed like it had no traction at the time. If you look back at TFA, there are plenty of instances of people says "Why the fuck is everyone ignoring this Russia thing?"

Indeed.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:16 PM
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74

Trump is totally going to be impeached. The original plan was

...and you lost me. Nobody is planning anything, or those who were could never put plans into effect.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:17 PM
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Both 72 and 74 seem equally insane to me. I don't know how anyone can make confident predictions in any direction. Anything is possible now. It's like we're living in Russia in January 1917.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:22 PM
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I think Trump will be impeached solely because there is absolutely no way this situation lasts four years. Trump only gains momentum and lies, he doesn't know how to reel anything back. So if he's not impeached, it's because he's brought about WWWIII.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:24 PM
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77

He'd be delighted to take credit for Web 3.0.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:26 PM
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Was this post title originally misspelled? I was hoping that was a "none dare call it" joke.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:29 PM
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77 Hey, I helped invent that.


Posted by: Opinionated Al Gore | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:30 PM
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I think Trump will be impeached solely because there is absolutely no way this situation lasts four years.

People have been saying absolutely no way he's still in this race by Fall 2015, no way he gets the nomination, absolutely no way he wins the general election, etc. Why shouldn't it go on for 4 years, or 8? Whatever forces which could have and should have prevented this clearly no longer exist, so where is the opposing force going to come from?


Posted by: real ffeJ annaH | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:30 PM
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I'm kind of with 74. I don't think there's anything like a plan. It's chaos as people with competing ideas jockey for the attention of the Shit-gibbon. He just does what he's told by the last person he talked to. Ryan et al are still a little bit in shock and are adjusting to the new reality. Everyone is incompetently improvising, including the Dems. Any plans made before the inauguration are suffering the fate of all battle plans on contact with the enemy. Putin is furiously masturbating at the state of our government, but even he's being forced to improvise.


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:32 PM
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My bet is that Trump is not impeached. There is nothing tying him directly to what is going on and he can always fire those that are involved.



Posted by: lemmy caution | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:33 PM
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People have been saying absolutely no way he's still in this race by Fall 2015, no way he gets the nomination, absolutely no way he wins the general election, etc. Why shouldn't it go on for 4 years, or 8? Whatever forces which could have and should have prevented this clearly no longer exist, so where is the opposing force going to come from?

Well this is true. By all rightful thinking, there is absolutely no way he is currently the president.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:33 PM
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but now the intelligence community is doing everything it can to force Congress' hand on this.

I hypothesize that the intelligence community is doing everything it can not to force an impeachment, but to force the executive branch to get its shit in order.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:36 PM
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Remember when everyone, including Republicans, was confidently preparing for the Clinton presidency and deferring contingency plans for the alternative because that was so impossible to think about or plan around? I'll bet the GOP establishment such as it is, like Ryan, have been fooling themselves similarly since November with "Of course we'll have ways to rein him in if things get really bad."


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:40 PM
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not to force an impeachment, but to force the executive branch to get its shit in order.

Well, yeah. Which would necessitate an impeachment, because no way Trump at the head of the executive branch will get anybody's shit in order.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:40 PM
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What's the mechanism here? What's going to get a bunch of Republican congressmen/senators to vote to impeach/convict?


Posted by: real ffeJ annaH | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:43 PM
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86: Disagree. Trump might could name someone to replace Flynn who proposes to get things unfucked up.

Like this guy. Does the intelligence community writ large like that guy, for not being a total fuck-up? I don't know. The point is that Trump needs to be spanked into realizing that he's not the king, reality does intrude, and since he can't dictate it himself, he needs to put in place people who do know how things work.

It's been clear for a while that he didn't/doesn't know that. He's being schooled.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:50 PM
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50/51/etc.: Minivet had it right, by "plain-vanilla" I meant the usual sort of Republican officeholder. Someone awful on women's/minorities' rights, cares a lot about low taxes, believes in homeopathic government, will ignore and suppress science for short-term profit. On the other hand: probably won't start a nuclear war nor have all sorts of weird connections to Russia. And they're mostly predictable, at least under normal circumstances. I think we're guaranteed to get all the stuff in the first list no matter what--and we'll have to fight against it--but I'd still like to avoid the second list. (I suppose you could make a "heightening the differences" argument--Trump certainly has been good at getting people active, myself included.)


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:54 PM
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87: The spiral. Some Republican (senators, at least) already admit an investigation is needed. More is bound to come out in that process, the leaks will exponentiate, eventually it will be enough to penetrate even the Fox News bubble.

Alternatively, Putin could decide US chaos is more valuable to him than a paralyzed puppet and start to release whatever he has.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 12:59 PM
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91

And Puzder withdraws.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:00 PM
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92

The Puzder prize.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:04 PM
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93

57, 58: One of the greatest fears of the founding fathers was that a charismatic figure would destroy the Republic and make himself an emperor, as Caesar did. [CITATION NEEDED, CHECK FEDERALIST PAPERS] They didn't want anyone like Caesar to become President. Hence the ban on Presidents born by Caesarian section.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:06 PM
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57, 58: One of the greatest fears of the founding fathers was that a charismatic figure would destroy the Republic and make himself an emperor, as Caesar did. [CITATION NEEDED, CHECK FEDERALIST PAPERS] They didn't want anyone like Caesar to become President. Hence the ban on Presidents born by Caesarian section.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:06 PM
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What's going to get a bunch of Republican congressmen/senators to vote to impeach/convict?

It will happen when Pence gives the word.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:06 PM
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95: SHAZAM!


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:11 PM
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It will happen when Pence gives the word.

Alright, then.


Posted by: real ffeJ annaH | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:11 PM
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98

I think parsimon is probably right here.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:14 PM
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99

Why didn't Republicans like Pudzer? He seemed terrible, ought to be right up their alley.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:16 PM
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100

Apparently he liked Mexicans too much.


Posted by: Tom Scudder | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:19 PM
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101

So, same problem as JEB!, basically.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:27 PM
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96: What does Shaquille O'Neal have to do with this?


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:28 PM
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90: eventually it will be enough to penetrate even the Fox News bubble.

Doubt it. As long as it's only (some) Republican Senators on board for an investigation, as long as the House Intelligence Committee declines an investigation, and instead says that it's the FBI who should be investigated for the leaks, this is a seriously uphill battle.

Again, we'll see. Maybe pressure builds among Republican Senators and trickles down to the House, but I just doubt it. I'd love to be surprised.

I will mention that popular pressure on House members is a good idea.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:30 PM
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Er, the system, such as it is, is really trying to achieve equilibrium. Balance, sustainability. Nobody wants this unstable shit. Impeachment makes it worse. Nobody wants that, at least quite yet.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:35 PM
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As long as it's only (some) Republican Senators on board for an investigation, as long as the House Intelligence Committee declines an investigation, and instead says that it's the FBI who should be investigated for the leaks, this is a seriously uphill battle.

That's true until its not. At some point the dam is going to break, and they are all going to start flipping at once.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:35 PM
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103: Is Senate committee investigation power inferior to House? They've already started, admittedly probably with the goal of covering up, but the process is in motion.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 1:37 PM
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32
Am I being overly pessimistic in thinking the best possible world we can get is a plain-vanilla Republican presidency?

I think the realistic best possible world goes something like this. Republicans run things despite 2 years of constant chaos and buffoonery in the White House. Big chunks of government get defunded, privatized, or devolve to states and our allies start spending more on their national defense because the American security umbrella is leaking. We probably start a minor war somewhere. However, any really huge disasters are forestalled by deep state, Republican incompetence and disarray, and activism by the left. Basically, the past 4 weeks continue for the next 23 months. Republicans lose big in 2018. Democrats improve the welfare state again and rein in the autocratic tendencies of the White House a bit, but, gosh darn it, there are still just a few too many Republicans around, impeachment doesn't get out of committee. Republicans lose big in 2020, just in time for the census and redistricting.

Yes, this really sucks, and I hope something even better happens, I just don't think it's realistic. In particular, if Trump gets impeached before the end of this year, then he wouldn't be an albatross around their neck in the 2018 election, and Pence would have a good chance of being president for 10 years.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:01 PM
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Heh. Thanks for the reality check, Cyrus.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:04 PM
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107.last is why I think its coming sooner, rather than later.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:09 PM
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I really think 107 understates the damage that dumping Trump will do to the party, particularly assuming he goes out in a hail of recriminations.


Posted by: Tom Scudder | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:21 PM
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107 sounds fantastic considering. I suspect something will fuck up the timing with census and redistricting.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:26 PM
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107: If Pence becomes president this year he can't be president for 10 years. More than two years of someone else's term counts as a full term for 22nd Amendment purposes.


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:26 PM
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Meanwhile, this sort of thing is wonderful. Maryland allows our AG to sue Trump whether our Republican governor likes it or not.

The Baltimore Sun reported that the measure would let state Attorney General Brian Frosh sue the Trump administration over issues that could hurt Maryland residents' health care, immigration rights, civil liberties and other issues.

As there's been a lot of talk about checks and balances, with much focus on the Judiciary, less focus on Congress's duties, there are also said checks at the state level. Huzzah.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:30 PM
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107: Oh, for some reason I was under the misconception that redistricting would occur in 2020 before the election, but I guess it depends upon the census being finished? That makes me more hopeful. I want to believe we can have two good elections in a row, and we do tend to do better in 0 mod 4 years than 2 mod 4.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:41 PM
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The only way to get rid of Trump is to persuade him that he no longer wants to be president. And that's not going to happen -- there's too much money to be made.

If Trump were forced out, he'd take at least half of the Republican Party with him. This would be great for the Democrats, and that's why it won't happen.

Trump and the Deep State (which has no fondness for Democrats, either) will come to an uneasy truce. Trump will understand that there are limits to the shit he can pull, and the Deep State, in return, won't release its most damaging kompromat on Trump.

I mean, sure, you'll have your lone-wolf intelligence operatives pulling an occasional Snowden, but I don't suppose we would have ever heard about Flynn were it not for Yates. Sessions will get things under control.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:47 PM
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Of course, in the event of nuclear war or a Great Depression, all bets are off.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:48 PM
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115.3 - I'm not sure Trump is capable of understanding this.


Posted by: Tom Scudder | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:49 PM
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102 is great.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:52 PM
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113: I'm hoping that Hogan's decision to identify himself with Trump and his agenda will make him vulnerable when he's up for reelection. He's had high approval ratings up to now, but I think that's mainly because he wasn't drawing attention to himself.


Posted by: AcademicLurker | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 2:53 PM
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Hogan's decision to identify himself with Trump and his agenda

I thought Hogan had decided not to endorse Trump.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 3:00 PM
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Hogan's pretty sick isn't he? Has it been reported that he wants to run for a second term?


Posted by: lw | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 3:02 PM
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I thought Hogan had decided not to endorse Trump.

Distancing himself from Trump seems to have been his plan, but he kind of blew it by blocking the AG from contesting Trump's travel ban.

It's actually not clear whether he was actively blocking the AG or just dragging his feet and hoping the whole thing would go away. But it looked like he was going to bat for Trump, which is good enough for me if it hurts him at the polls.


Posted by: AcademicLurker | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 3:06 PM
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118- Except she meant Sinbad.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 3:41 PM
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I can't even remember which one was in the movie that existed and which one was in the other.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 4:12 PM
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I just did my bit protesting Corey Lewandowski who was giving a talk here.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 4:25 PM
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125: Thanks.

It's more or less impossible to game this out, but I think none of the above even acknowledges that elections happen between now and 2018. If the Rs lose Tom Price's seat, which went for Romney by 20+ points and Trump by 1 point, then things are going to start shifting right quick. Current Ds + seats that split between Clinton and an R = 220. If every Clinton voter (plus Stein voters, I guess) turned out in 2018, we'd take the House.

That's not important because of what it means for 2019; its important for how it changes the calculus for Rs right now. And sure, they'll always fear Tea Partiers more than Ds, but did you see the Trump rally with literally tens of attendees? Chaffetz and Toomey can say "paid protesters" all they want, their campaign managers can do simple math.

I'm not predicting that this adds up to impeachment, but at some point standing up to Trump will be more appealing than going down with the ship when you already know the captain is crazy, and he's so dysfunctional that you're not even getting the tax cuts you sold your soul for.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 4:56 PM
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122: Yeah, I was thinking of that, but somehow I got the math completely backwards. I think the point stands, though - an early impeachment gives Pence a better chance of winning the election in 2020.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 7:06 PM
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Further to 106.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-15-17 7:32 PM
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I think this is still applicable to the current situation.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 1:14 AM
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He could probably shoot him in the middle of Fifth Avenue.

Is it bad that this made me actually laugh out loud?


Posted by: Sir Kraab | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 8:55 AM
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Jeebus, did anyone see the trainwreck of a press conference? I went out and missed the fun.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 1:35 PM
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131

Trump is the least anti-Semitic person you've ever seen in your life.

You can all sleep safely now.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 1:57 PM
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Also the least racist too.

Racism is #Obamasfault


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 1:59 PM
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I see quite a few tweets from people watching the press conference in restaurants in R states reporting that people loved it. Spot checked a few, they seem like real non-rabid non-fanatical conservatives rather than robot accounts or crazily prolific people. Mid-day east coast, so maybe retired people watching, but still.

Until lots of ordinary republicans see him as incompetent, R legislators can safely side with him.


Posted by: lw | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 2:37 PM
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I made the mistake of watching the whole thing and now I need to drink heavily.

It was the least important subject touched on, but the exchange about the size of Trump's electoral college victory is going to give me nightmares. All the scorn of eight years of the Bush administration for the reality-based community distilled into the purest contempt for the truth.


Posted by: potchkeh | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 2:42 PM
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Running like a finely tuned machine. NSFW.


Posted by: Turgid Jacobian | Link to this comment | 02-16-17 7:12 PM
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The people continue to be unable to find their own ass.


Posted by: One of Many | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 8:49 AM
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134: That doesn't seem very determinative to me. We know Trump has a devoted coterie who are going to support him no matter what, whereas another swath of the public voted for him more reluctantly because they were good Republicans or against abortion or for tax cuts or whatever. I don't know if the latter group can really be peeled off en masse, but either way I doubt they are the ones who are watching his press conferences.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 3:27 PM
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I'm pretty sure 134 is right. Trump isn't going anywhere until he fucks up something bad enough to hurt middle class white people. Which is one of the groups way down the list in the order for pain delivery.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 5:41 PM
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138: I was thrilled to hear on NPR yesterday a caller to a program allow as how he was Trump voter in Iowa who now (so soon!) had buyer's remorse, not because Trump speaks inappropriately -- he termed such complaints "petty" -- but because of his horrible Cabinet picks. Especially Pruitt for EPA, he said.

There are numerous reports that Trump voters just want him to 'fix the economy', 'create jobs', etc. and they give him, oh, let's say 2 years. I wonder if one year will be enough to make them frown already. Congressional Republicans want to do a lot of things that won't go over well for Trump voters; they don't seem on track, as yet, to doing any of it, but it's early days.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 6:10 PM
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They won't even starting counting time until after he's deported a few millions.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 8:33 PM
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Anyway, my sister is leafing through this-is-not-a-bill statements for my parents that exceed my annual income and patient pay is like $200. So for cheer I've got the knowledge that Paul Ryan hates us and a bunch of morphine that I'm not able to use personally. It's enough.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 8:48 PM
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Second-hand morphine is probably the best kind, unless the real thing goes to a person like me who gets hopelessly chatty on the stuff. Cheers to being on Paul Ryan's bad side and I hope you have more to celebrate soon.


Posted by: Thorn | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 9:35 PM
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Thanks


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 02-17-17 9:51 PM
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