did someone muck with the backend here

Re: What's up today?

1

Not climate change, but do they frack in Mexico? Or could US fracking have knock-on effects that distant?


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 11:23 AM
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It's impossible to imagine any of the three hold-outs switching after the grand finale last time.

It's entirely possible to imagine John McCain behaving like he has the entire rest of his career.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 12:36 PM
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Maybe the Earth is just pissed off.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 12:38 PM
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2: But...but...he showboated so hard! Wouldn't that be like eating crow or something? I think he's a complete self-serving asshole. I just don't see how the most possible self-serving thing to do is to change his vote.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 12:41 PM
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Two (or more) big earthquakes in a row is pretty common - the smaller one is generally considered a foreshock or aftershock of the bigger. See, for example, this list of major Japanese earthquakes: you have the big 2011 Tōhoku earthquake at 9.1 on March 11, 2011, but there is a 7.2 foreshock on March 9 (which was seen as a major earthquake in its own right until the bigger one came along), three 7.1 aftershocks on March 11, April 7, and April 11, and a 7.0 aftershock on July 10. There were lots of smaller earthquakes during this period also. Once a big earthquake moves things around under the earth, you tend to get a lot of related earthquakes while things are settling down and the tensions redistributing themselves.


Posted by: Dave W. | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 12:44 PM
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It wasn't technically an aftershock, although they are both obviously in a highly prone area.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 12:49 PM
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Also wondering about the poor people of Puerto Rico about now.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 12:54 PM
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Climate-driven tectonism.


Posted by: Roadrunner | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 1:03 PM
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4- He just has to claim that his initial showboating resulted in this newer awesome bill and the press will follow along and praise him for using his singular Mavericky powers to save health care. The fact that this bill is actually worse will not be questioned if McCain says it's better.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 2:01 PM
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That almost doesn't sound mavericky.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 2:19 PM
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The bill has Lindsey Graham's name on it, probably for the specific purpose of bringing over McCain's vote.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 2:43 PM
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My contempt for John McCain is thiiiiiiiiis big.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 3:53 PM
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using his singular Mavericky powers to save health care

The smart money is on him maneuvering to be the final vote again, so he can theatrically give a thumbs up this time.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 4:09 PM
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When John McCain does it, that means that it is Mavericky.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 4:27 PM
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To follow up on 8, I was amazed to learn that in fact climate change can have something to do with earthquakes:

The atmosphere is far from isolated and interacts with other elements of the so-called "Earth system", such as the oceans, ice caps and even the ground beneath our feet...the thin layer of gases that hosts the weather and fosters global warming really does interact with the solid Earth - the so-called geosphere -- in such a way as to make climate change an even bigger threat.
This relationship is marvellously illustrated by a piece of research published in the journal Nature... convincing evidence for a link between typhoons barrelling across Taiwan and the timing of small earthquakes beneath the island. Their take on the connection is that the reduced atmospheric pressure that characterises these powerful Pacific equivalents of hurricanes is sufficient to allow earthquake faults deep within the crust to move more easily and release accumulated strain. This may sound far fetched, but an earthquake fault that is primed and ready to go is like a coiled spring, and as geophysicist John McCloskey of the University of Ulster is fond of pointing out, all that is needed to set it off is - quite literally - "the pressure of a handshake".
In a similar vein, it seems that the huge volume of rain dumped by tropical cyclones, leading to severe flooding, may also be linked to earthquakes. The University of Miami's Shimon Wdowinski has noticed that in some parts of the tropics - Taiwan included - large earthquakes have a tendency to follow exceptionally wet hurricanes or typhoons, most notably the devastating quake that took up to 220,000 lives in Haiti in 2010. It is possible that floodwaters are lubricating fault planes, but Wdowinski has another explanation. He thinks that the erosion of landslides caused by the torrential rains acts to reduce the weight on any fault below, allowing it to move more easily.

Read the whole thing, as they say.


Posted by: Witt | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 5:01 PM
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OH JOY.

(Number of times I have visualized kid's school collapsing today: 50+. It should be pretty safe tho -- all one story, very easily escaped.)


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 5:22 PM
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You need the Yellowstone Supervolcano to hit the trifecta.

http://www.newsweek.com/yellowstone-supervolcano-earthquake-swarm-largest-recorded-658318


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 5:40 PM
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Isn't Rand Paul showboating this one?

There was a moment when it looked like Murkowski might be in play, but apparently the optimistic projections she was looking at were based on an Alaska-friendly provision that wasn't actually in the bill. (I could be completely wrong about this, have only skimmed twitter today . . .)


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 5:43 PM
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I believed that I've railed against 'heightening the contradictions' as much as anyone here, but it really does seem to me that a repeal like this is maybe the shortest route to single payer.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 5:45 PM
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17: It's four horsemen, not three.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 5:47 PM
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Should we get out the telescopes and start looking for undetected near Earth asteroids?


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 6:02 PM
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Do you really want to know exactly when?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 6:04 PM
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FFS, people, not everything is climate change. The basic model of tectonics is that these pressures are building constantly, but what triggers their release is not well understood and may be triggered by relatively subtle effects. Based on this model, early release of tectonic pressure should result in more frequent, but less intense earthquakes. In that case, even if there were an effect (and the effects are so far tiny, even for massive storms and shifts in water) it would only be trigger that which would have happened anyway, and perhaps to do so in a less damaging fashion.

I share the feeling that the last 3 months seem like the end of the world, but a big chunk of it is just as irrational as shark scares, i.e. we now get real time reporting of every natural disaster on earth, so it seems like more. That's not to say that there weren't actually more natural disasters recently, but even some of that clustering is just due to random chance. We got some big ones, and they actually hit targets instead of just missing.

Even climate scientists are careful to say that no single hurricane is due to climate change. In fact, I think they'd be careful to say that we don't have any evidence that this overactive season is due to climate change. But to bring in earthquakes just confirms what conservatives believe: that we'd say everything is climate change regardless of the evidence.


Posted by: F | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 6:05 PM
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Sorry that was a little ranty.

My personal pet theory is that God is intentionally wiping out North American winter vacation sites one by one. I'd be nervous if I were Hawaii right now.


Posted by: F | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 6:07 PM
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There was a moment when it looked like Murkowski might be in play, but apparently the optimistic projections she was looking at were based on an Alaska-friendly provision that wasn't actually in the bill. (I could be completely wrong about this, have only skimmed twitter today . . .)

Apparently Cassidy's office posted something that showed Alaska getting more per-capita funding than other states, but that isn't actually in the bill text and when reporters asked Cassidy's staff about it they pulled it from their website. So that might be something they're planning to add, or it could just have been a mistake. Murkowski herself has mostly been complaining about not getting good enough numbers. I have a hard time seeing her flipping on this after holding out on all the others, but we'll see.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 6:15 PM
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Hurricanes, earthquakes, wars, Anthony Weiner's crotch, Trump, Ryan, McConnell's goober-faced grin. It's not the end of the world so much as a good reminder that when it does end, it's definitely been a mixed bag.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 6:35 PM
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This whole era is a constant moment of "I told you so!" for me. Like, what have I been trying to warn people about for the last quarter of a century? EXACTLY WHAT IS COMING TO PASS! I've certainly committed political errors in my time, though mostly at the rarefied heights of online anarchist discourse. But the 95% percent of it that I, and my co-anti-religionists, were right about should have gotten through to more people, sooner. Plus, we were being proven right over and over again as that time elapsed. D'j'y'all see that newer chart of % of your lifetime the US has been at war by birth year? I was born in one of the lowest percentage years since the 1930s. And it still feels like we're always at war on multiple fronts, even when we aren't, technically. And the US has something like 60% of the global arms trade. And then you think, fuck it, it doesn't matter, too many feedback loops have been engaged now with the climate, we're headed for total ecological collapse as fast as you can say "Jack Robinson."


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 6:53 PM
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Ugh. I'm glad the school year is starting and I'm too busy to excessively follow the news.

My take on McCain's most recent behavior is he did something that looked like he was going to fuck over Obamacare, so liberals all started really hating him, but then it sort of seems liked he did that something in order to really fuck over McConnell, but then liberals were like, well he screwed up X but at least he did Y, when it wasn't clear at all that X was a screw up. That is, X was interpreted as a screw up because it would lead to Z, when really if X was a lead up to Y, it was actually a giant F U to Republicans. Since Y happened, I've reinterpreted X as an F U to McConnell. This makes me feel like McCain is more pro-Obamacare than anyone has given him credit for, which is making me optimistic that he'll stay strong.

(I've been working 10 hours today and drinking whiskey, so my explanation probably only makes sense to me.)


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 7:04 PM
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I believe 26 is the lyrics to a Bob Dylan song.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 7:05 PM
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McCain has been remarkably consistent in demanding "regular order" during this latest go-round, for whatever that's worth. He's even been pretty clear that the Potemkin hearings they hastily scheduled for next week don't count.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 7:10 PM
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30

Right. We've seen zero evidence he's tried to fuck over Obamacare since the 2016 election, and ample evidence he's doing the opposite. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until he actually does something terrible. (That doesn't mean Arizonans shouldn't keep the screws on).


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 7:18 PM
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I was hoping for a climate change explanation for more asteroids hitting the earth. Although maybe that's the solution with the resulting global winter.
Many analysts say the big dog that hasn't barked yet is a nuke going off in a city, whether launched intentionally because Trump is a child or because terrorists finally get their hands on one in the black market.
Happy Thursday!


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 9:00 PM
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I'm going camping for the next couple of days and it's starting to feel like a setup for one of those post-apocalyptic stories where someone returns to a destroyed world.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 9:34 PM
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Wall puns in comments will be my lasting legacy.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 9:35 PM
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29, 26 or new verses for Billy Joel's "We didn't start the fire"


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-20-17 11:53 PM
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21: An asteroid passed by earlier this week at about 2/3 of the distance to the moon.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 4:05 AM
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36 Better luck next time.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 4:41 AM
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On another day, chasing the noses away.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 7:00 AM
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7. I'm worried about them, too. Some official there was saying the electricity will be out for six months. I want to believe this is an exaggeration, but I haven't heard anyone say otherwise. Tell me again about shiny modern science and engineering, and convince me whoever was was full of it.

Please.


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 9:20 AM
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"whoever it was"


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 9:21 AM
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Unfortunately, "It all comes down to money, and the government of Puerto Rico doesn't have it." from
https://www.vox.com/2017/9/6/16262954/irma-puerto-rico-electricity

Yeah, it looks like the issue is too few workers to do the work, and too weak of finances to pay for more.

"The electric company, PREPA, relied on selling bonds to pay for the imported oil it burned at its power plants. By 2014, it could no longer pay its creditors, and couldn't borrow more money to buy fuel. (...) [T]he utility company kept delaying repairs because it didn't have the money, and the utility company struggled to pay down its remaining debt."

Oh, and to make it worse: "The utility company is seriously understaffed. In the past decade, PREPA has lost thousands of workers. "


Posted by: Mooseking | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 11:15 AM
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Huh, it's almost like capital and the state don't work nearly as well as everyone thinks they do.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 4:58 PM
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|| I couldn't think of a good thread to jack except the disaster one but my narnian doctors have been fucking up again a bit; they didn't give me enough of the beta blockers that are meant to short circuit the akathisia in time. also, they don't have enough staff to watch me and have been following, as you know, the british colonial model of psych help: try to control your urges and call us if you are about to hurt yourself. I wouldn't be here if I could do that, obviously! the result is that I'm beat up bad. if this akathisia is not treated properly it can last 30. motherfucking. days. so I'm flying to AZ with husband x, heavily sedated so I hopefully don't fuck myself up in the airplane bathroom. there we have obamacare, at least for the next three weeks or something, and I'm going to the US psych ward, which I've never been in. maybe I'll make friends with a wise native american. anything's possible. I'm checking out tomorrow and going home just for two days. I'm scared about it because one bad move with a knife will make all the dumb beatdown acquired in the ward look like a good idea, but husband x promises it will be ok. he's mad about the medicine and that they are so blasé about me getting hurt badly in the actual ward, which--to be fair--kind of seems as if it should be padded or something. so that's my story. I can't decide if I feel bad because this sucks or because they took away all my anti-depressants at once. so many factors. on the plus side they bring you hot milo all the time. it's like ovaltine, but slightly worse. anyway, resume your disaster musings with a real life example of arizona tragedy should assholes repeal obamacare. >


Posted by: alameida | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 8:18 PM
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Good luck al.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 8:23 PM
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thanks! it'll be ok this is simultaneously terrifying and boring.


Posted by: alameida | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 8:28 PM
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best of luck.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 9:28 PM
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Thinking of you al, all the best


Posted by: Seeds | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 10:14 PM
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Who needs a war when you have incompetent hospital management?


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 10:15 PM
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Narnian attitudes towards mental health are pretty terrible.


Posted by: Ponder Stibbons | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 10:28 PM
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Ironic, considering all the talking animals.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 10:32 PM
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Oh, al! I'm hoping that things will improve for you soon. How horrible and scary for you, Husband X, and your kids too. I think you said you'd had good care in AZ. May it continue so.


Posted by: md 20/400 | Link to this comment | 09-21-17 10:48 PM
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Best of luck, al.



Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 1:48 AM
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How did Puerto Rico do?


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 2:00 AM
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48: Defense contractors.

Best wishes, al.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 5:06 AM
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It's been moving that way for years but this story really does show that the Republican Party has turned Christianity into a form of nationalist paganism.

Key quote:

Strange responded, "I don't think God is on Moore's side, or on my side, but God is on the president's side, and the president is on my side."

Note that Strange is the religious "moderate" in that race.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 6:49 AM
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So, McCain seems to be a hard no.

Maybe seeing himself on the Burns VN movie last night stiffened him a bit: supporting this extremely stupid shit is no kind of capstone legacy.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 11:00 AM
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I am pleased to have been wrong about McCain.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 11:01 AM
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|| I've finally gotten some texts from my friend/co-counsel on St Thomas. The curfew has been temporarily lifted -- they'd been stuck in their houses since noon Tuesday -- but there were over 1000 people in line at one of the grocery stores. Roads barely passable. |>


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 11:17 AM
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It's interesting that Rand Paul stayed in the noes column too. I continue to wonder if he's been deliberately obstructing by insisting on ideological purity.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 12:04 PM
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With Kentucky benefiting so heavily from the ACA, I could see him not wanting to weather, just for the sake of the Cause, the storm of backlash he knows would come from eviscerating it. (He is also in the youngest quintile of senators. And is enough of a smug asshole that I could imagine this of him.)

OTOH, he did vote for skinny repeal. But that wasn't the final chance to vote at the time.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 12:59 PM
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|| So, academic people, how amused horrified should one be? |>


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 2:59 PM
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Man-Environment Relation

I think Jeet Heer tweeted at length about this.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 3:08 PM
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43: Are you sure you'll get a bed, al? U.S. Psych wards don't always take you even if you have insurance. They're aren't enough of them, because they're so poorly reimbursed. Only rich self-pay people can be sure of access.

Take care of yourself!



Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 3:56 PM
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Rand Paul's votes seem to unrelated to his explanations. That is he votes against bills that have Medicaid cuts but was fine with skinny repeal that didn't.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 4:26 PM
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60: I can't believe he cares about Kentucky in the slightest. This is about national reputation and not much else.


Posted by: Thorn | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 4:44 PM
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I only suggest he might care about what Kentucky might do to him.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 4:58 PM
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thanks BG that's a good point I didn't know about; my psychiatrist has more or less promised that part will be ok, I think, but a) I haven't been talking to him myself but rather through the intermediary of my b-i-l and b) I hadn't even considered it as a problem, so I hope I can get one soon. I want to get off the plane, sleep, and then go to a nice hospital the next morning. snowbirds aren't there yet which usually means empty beds/appointments in PHX. hopefully this is true of the crazy snowbirds also, but I will inquire more strenuously.

I think I have to make them x-ray my right wrist because the hand's not working properly/hurting more as time passes rather than less. I probably just bruised a bone or something, or sprained it weird by hitting the inside of my arm so hard. I'm not worried it's actually broken but I guess they better check.


Posted by: alameida | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 5:19 PM
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61

Horrified but not shocked. Corporatizing the university is all the rage, but unfortunately the less prestigious or less well funded ones are probably gonna end up more like Radio Shack than H/arvard.


Man-Environment Relation

This sounds exactly like how an advanced intermediate ESL student in China would describe their interest in ecology. I can already picture the essay in front of me.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 7:33 PM
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I don't know why I got so paranoid about writing out Harvard there.


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 7:34 PM
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Safe travels, alameida. May you find peace and safety in AZ.


Posted by: Witt | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 7:46 PM
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68: It's one of those renaming things, like when home economics turned into human ecology. Also the NCAA insisted that Penn State abolish the program in Man Boy Relations.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 7:55 PM
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ba-dum ching!


Posted by: Buttercup | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 8:25 PM
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Your poor arm, al. What a fucking nightmare. You really have to write a SF novel after this, so we can all give learned talks on how the eerie sanatorium planet/semi-sentient ship was loosely based on the author's convalescent journey to Phoenix from overseas.


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 8:52 PM
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You really have to write a SF novel after this, so we can all give learned talks on how the eerie sanatorium planet/semi-sentient ship was loosely based on the author's convalescent journey to Phoenix from overseas.

Agree 100%.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 09-22-17 10:33 PM
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What Witt said in 70. Be well, al.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-23-17 1:05 AM
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||

60 and 65: I went to a talk yesterday by a former insurance commissioner about her thoughts on her state's ACA implementation and the State's Senators. Her perspective was interesting.

|>


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 09-23-17 5:50 AM
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Don't tease BG. It's unladylike.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-23-17 5:54 AM
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I like how McCain said he can't support the bill "in good conscience." That's not particularly subtle shade on the 49 (or so) supporters.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 09-23-17 6:25 AM
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I doubt that the recent spate of hurricanes set off earthquakes in Mexico. If nothing else, they never got much closer than Houston. Remember, the active fault is on the Pacific side, not the Atlantic side.

Mexico City has long been an earthquake trap though. It's built on a lake bed and, if a Mexican friend of mine was correct, most of the poured concrete was of marginal quality. (He had a job inspecting concrete deliveries and was warned against rejecting any if the proper bribes had been paid.)


Posted by: Kaleberg | Link to this comment | 09-24-17 8:57 PM
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Puerto Rico thread? I mean, holy shit...


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 09-24-17 9:44 PM
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See comments on accountable governance in the other thread.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 09-24-17 9:49 PM
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