Absent some other revelation, you have to figure that Roy Moore will stay in the race and win in Alabama, but I am full to the point of bursting with sweet, sweet schadenfreude.
You made me think of Ernst Roehm, which is always unwelcome.
Since this is the designated WTF? thread, I think this scores impressively high on the WTF? scale.
3 is impressive. Reminds me of the line about the problem with post-communist Russia is that they believed their own propaganda about how brutal and exploitative capitalism was, so when they turned capitalist they thought that's the way it had to be.
2: There were good people on both sides of the Night of the Long Knives.
What is looking more and more like the apparent kidnapping of the Lebanese PM by the Saudis is a real WTF.
I started to read an analysis of Saudi Arabia and Lebanon but it assumed I was far less ignorant than I am and I gave up.
Oh, wait, this is the good things thread. OK, the Korean War hasn't been reignited, despite the President's travels.
Kristian Ulrichsen is one of the sharpest observers of GCC goings on around and this which was just published yesterday is very good.
Let's not be fatalistic - although we objectively have no idea, it's our duty to act like we know our actions are just about to start turning the tide. Good time to donate to Doug Jones, for example.
538 wants us to know that the current lead for Dems in the generic ballot is liable to stick.
538 is also asking whether the Republicans should panic. The answers are mixed, but you have to like that the question is being asked.
This part of this video (should start 52 seconds in) continues to be one of the most cheering things for me on the internet. Also my aspirational metaphor for how quickly it will go for the current administration once it really starts. (It won't, but a boy can dream.)
12, 13: The thing is, Democrats assuming the Republicans are too fucked up to win is basically a sufficient, but not necessary, condition for 2016.
Tense in 15 is confusing me. Should it be "2018"?
16: I can't help thinking about the kid whose toy pony it was watching that on TV. Because I am not a good person.
I fine the chatroom-style discussions 538 posts very endearing. Seeing arbitrary generation-specific cultural markers in mainstream media must be what it feels like to be a Boomer.
15 makes sense as is.
I don't know from grammar, but I'm trying to avoid 2018 becoming like 2016 by pointing out that maybe survey-result induced optimism should be avoided.
If you could all be extremely worried and nervous, but not to the point of paralysis, that would be great.
5: 2: There were good people on both sides of the Night of the Long Knives.
Speaking of Nazi atrocities, yesterday happened to be both the first seating of the new conservative + neofascist dominated Parliament here, and the anniversary of Kristallnacht, and the outgoing social-democratic chancellor used his speech to draw attention to the latter. A rough translation of the relevant bit of his remarks, after a quick rundown of what exactly the pogrom was:
It's an appropriate occasion to remember and reflect on what happened, because how we relate to our history determines and defines the kind of future we want to live in. I think it's a consensus that all officeholders should uphold, that heightening tensions to the detriment of other people, that ostracisation, that the search for scapegoats, that racism and the mobilisation of base instincts--they have no place in politics.
Cue applause from all of the assembled parties, with the conspicuous exception of the soon-to-be-in-government extreme-right FPÖ (video at 1:30). I suppose it's progress that (surprisingly) they swapped their usual cornflowers (symbol of the Nazi supporters during the Austrofascist era when the swastika was banned) for edelweiss on their lapels, but still, ugh.
18.last, 19: Ah yes. Now I see.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/opinion-savvyddhq-alsen-poll-roy-moore-46-4-doug-jones-46/
Oops, sorry, happy thread. Maciej Cegłowski, bookmarking-app overlord, incisive critic of surveillance capitalism, and all-around funny guy on Twitter, has been doing some great stuff trying to get tech people involved in supporting early-stage Democratic House candidates in otherwise uncontested districts. He has a series of tweets about it, including links to donate to 3 in CA, here.
If you hate "tweet storms" the relevant donation links are here, here, and here/
And thus ended all my ". . . and a pony" dreams.
15: I'm from Maryland, pal. Our turnout was higher than 2012, and we gave Hillary 60 percent of our votes, delivering the electoral votes and helping her run up the score in the popular vote. We did our job, and we'll do it next time, too.
If anyone got complacent, it's the residents of a certain Mid-Atlantic state I could name.
That's not even a real state. That's just a rounding error from Virginia and Pennsylvania.
27: True, we have a tough time ahead here. I want to see what happens with the special election to replace Murphy, though--our only state-wide elections were judicial and a referendum, which probably didn't help turnout. However, Republicans (and the tax referendum) did notably bad in Allegheny County's suburbs, making me hopeful for Murphy's replacement.
28: Technically we already took away the rounding error, thanks to Cresap's War and later Mason and Dixon. The true rounding error state is Delaware. May the spirit of irredentist Greater Pennsylvania live on.
I thought this bit was very perceptive in the 538 chat:
I actually don't know how realistic it is to expect them to change course. Trump is going to Trump. They have a voter base that likes Trumpism. They have members in Congress and a donor base that likes unpopular policies. And they are internally divided on politics and policy, making it hard to shift course.
They are absolutely locked in to their current approach. They've got a base that will kill them if they deviate from Trumpian orthodoxy, and a general public that regards Trump with fear and loathing.
I find myself wanting to use the phrase "fear and loathing" a lot these days.
But not in this thread, because this is the happy thread.
And that's why you don't leave your stuffed animals on the playground!
Trumpian orthodoxy
But is this really a thing that actually exists, separate and apart from Trump himself?
If Trump were to declare tomorrow "I love Eastasia Mexico! I always have! And immigration helps our economy!" how many of the hardcore Trump supporters would fall right in line with him?
34 Some might grumble for a day or two but eventually they would all fall in line. It's a cult.
I don't think 34 is quite right. Trumpism is non-ideological, but it does have certain policy commitments. One of them is The Wall, and another is keeping the government out of my Medicare. One of the reasons that ACA repeal failed was that too many Trumpers figured out that they'd get screwed, and Trump flacking for it didn't sway them*.
Ways for Trump to lose the support of his base are pretty much limited to praising Kaepernick abandoning the Wall, and letting Republicans destroy SS/Medicare.
*not enough of them, anyway
Or the pee tape is him getting peed on.
38: There was a prime minister of India that would drink his pee. He talked about it on 60 Minutes.
But is this really a thing that actually exists, separate and apart from Trump himself?
It doesn't have to exist separate from Trump in order to exist, but I think it does exist separately. Roy Moore is super-Trumpian, to the point of being an actual molester, and he didn't even need Trump's endorsement to win the Trump voters.
Sure, Trumpism is mainly about Trump, but you also need the racism and misogyny. Contra Barry, Trump needs to hate Mexico and oppose abortion, for example, or he would lose his base. He has plenty of leeway otherwise.
Drinking pee without using a glass.
a.k.a. "drinking from the fountain"
Thanks, MAE. That really improved my morning coffee.
Happy thread:
A Sikh, an athetist, and a trans woman walk into a bar. They all have a drink together to celebrate their electoral victories.
(Not mine. Different versions are floating around.)