Unfortunately, this week's fivethirtyeight politics podcast reminded me that in 2016, the early voting participation numbers weren't particularly predictive of actual results except in Nevada (where a significant fraction of the voters voted early). Doesn't mean we shouldn't enjoy it, but it's good to keep in mind that early voters aren't usually a random sample of all voters.
A scant week ago someone from here gave me the line about "well of course Austin isn't very Texan" and I somehow did not go off. Anyway yay Beto! I know November may bring disappointment. As Sydney's mom on Alias said to her through earrings hooked up to broadcast morse code, change takes time.
"Everyone thinks of Austin as being the lone liberal place in Texas, but it's really not."
So this is true, but there's also difference between lifestyle liberalism and people who vote Democratic. My guess is that the spectrum of opinion among Texas Democrats about the bathroom bill is going to look different in McAllen vs. Austin.
Well, there's also the fact that Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio are all bigger cities than Austin, with demographics and politics that reflect their (relative) big-city status.
4 is correct. Everyone thinks of Austin as the lone hipster place in Texas, not the lone liberal place.
Comment 1 is agreeing with the post, no?
I wouldn't go that far. The sort of people who think of Texas that way do generally think of Austin as the lone liberal place; they're just wrong.
Let's all spend a few hundred more comments reminding each other that early vote totals aren't infallible predictors of final results.
Most large cities are very liberal-leaning and the ones in Texas are no exception. What we do end up with in large Texas cities are lifestyle *conservatives* who move to DFW or Houston from in blue or purple states, buy some boots and a cowboy hat, and then proceed to announce themselves as spokespeople for flyover country despite the facts that 1) 60% of the voters around them are reliable Democratic votes and 2) they would commit suicide after approximately two weeks of having to live in actual flyover country. Dana Loesch, Glenn Beck, and Tomi Lahren are good examples of this.
8 - invitation taken up. Remember, this is early voting in a primary where the Senate race candidate is set (on both sides) and the Gubernatorial primary is contested only on the Democratic side (and where the D candidate for Governor truly, sadly, has almost no chance). So it's not even possibly predictive of anything -- but lots of Ds voting does indicate that Texas Democrats are more enthusiastic than they've been in decades, which is huge.
Beto seems to be running a really good campaign. People who think the only Texas Democrats live in Austin are ridiculous and are like do you even minorities bro. TBF, though, Dallas and Harris Counties as solidly (post-civil-rights-era) Democratic is really pretty recent, not since 2008. I just looked at the Harris County 2016 numbers and the shift is pretty impressive -- from a solid 54% in favor of GWB in 2000 to a solid 54% in favor of Hillary in 2016.
Anyhow, everyone with money should give Beto some. How much would you pay to watch Ted Cruz's tears of defeat (I would pay a lot!) Plus, it's barely an exaggeration to say that changing Texas politics is, like, everything for American politics.
Beto's 90s hardcore band was competent and unremarkable in the way that 2018 voters are crying out for:
https://youtu.be/xNieIqqKrHs?t=57s
It's kind of funny how non-commentable that video is. Rock and roll? It's embarrassing because it looks a little like my terrible high school band.
Dana Loesch, Glenn Beck, and Tomi Lahren
This works well for Loesch and Beck (less than 30 miles from St. Louis and Seattle, respectively) but Loehren is from Rapid City.
That's pretty cosmopolitan compared to where I'm from. I know people who wound up in Sioux Falls and Pierre, but not, I think Rapid City.
OMG! In our county (which was not one of the 12 pre-released early voting totals), Beto got 5283 votes in early voting, and Cruz got 5284!
What a meaningless coincidence!
It's like how Lincoln's secretary was named "Kennedy" and Kennedy's secretary was named "5,284."
My brother used to play pickup ultimate with Beto.
Yeah, well Cruz is going to play PENULTIMATE with Beto!
Beto is still about 100 votes ahead of Cruz in our Hays.
everyone with money should give Beto some
Yep. I did. He probably won't win. But if we don't support him, he surely won't. Someday Texas might turn blue. And someday after that, I might feel safe visiting my hometown. Though I doubt it'll happen anytime soon.
In the Your Vote Matters category, the guy I supported to unseat our gerrymandered fuckface Congressional rep fell 25 votes short of a majority. He got 49.84% of the vote and has to go to a runof against a candidate who got 15%.
Some of the election pundits that leap to conclusions have gone from saying "Wow look at all this early voting by the Democrats" to "Uh-oh, and actually all that early voting was in Houston". I don't know, these are primaries. Even the most motivated Democrat is more motivated to defeat the Republicans. While the Republicans have a ton of maniacs with money from billionaires to challenge "non-conservative" Republican incumbents who only voted with the governor's culture-war demagoguery 95% of the time because the other 5% of the time they were worried about what the Chamber of Commerce would think.
24: Our American aversion against ranked choice voting saves us again.
Not quite fair to talk about an "American aversion" to ranked choice voting. Where do they actually use ranked choice voting? It looks like the answer is Australia, Ireland, Malta, and various municipalities including many in America.
I should have said ranked voting, not ranked choice voting. It's also used in Northern Ireland, and the Czech Republic, and various elections in Scotland, New Zealand, and Slovenia, and a number of other nations that might not be great examples of sterling democracy. My point is I've heard the argument that ordered lists of preferences are too complex for us here.
My point is I've heard the argument that ordered lists of preferences are too complex for us here.
Yes, but every citizen ought to be able to figure out which health insurance plan is best for them.
30
That's being fixed by making sure there is only one to choose from.
I don't understand how the turnout results are supposed to be good news for the Democrats. Abbott got more votes in an uncompetitive primary than all of the Democratic candidates combined. Likewise for Cruz' senate seat.
WITHOUT ME YOU'RE NOBODY!
And someday after that, I might feel safe visiting my hometown.
Where exactly are you scared to pass?
I don't understand how the turnout results are supposed to be good news for the Democrats. Abbott got more votes in an uncompetitive primary than all of the Democratic candidates combined. Likewise for Cruz' senate seat.
I don't think they are. People were optimistic about early voting, but the actual final results are disappointing, no?
It's not GOOD news for the Democrats, but my impression was since the state legislature is controlled by Republicans, there are a lot of consequential Republican primaries to see whether it's controlled by the traditional capitalist Republicans or the nihilistic culture-war Republicans. Whereas there are no consequential Democratic primaries for the state legislature. The only consequential Democratic primaries are the few for US Congress in the Romney-Clinton suburban districts, where again the "motivated Democrats" just want someone who can beat the Republican.
In our State rep race, the motherfucker who tries her best to wreck town politics was thoroughly smacked down by a more moderate Republican, which is nice. There were like 20 candidates though, so she was in good company.
Here's a good roundup of the results from a national perspective.
35: Weatherford, TX. I think I've written about it before. But of all the people I knew from my childhood, only one family really treated me as fully human. Someday I need to find my classmate from that family, and thank him. Weatherford wasn't any worse than the rest of Texas -- certainly it wasn't East Texas (Jasper ) or Nacogdoches. But it was bad enough.
I'm not saying that I've literally felt physical danger there. But here's the analogy: A friend in grad school (in Ithaca, NY) grew up in Queens, NYC. She told me, 4yr after getting to Cornell, that one day she woke up to just how dangerous it was, growing up (in the 70s). She'd just gotten so used to always scanning around/ahead, crossing the street if things looked rough, etc, etc, that she didn't think about it anymore. Until, one day, four years after leaving that environment, the enormity of it all just crashed down on her. She (obv) couldn't imagine ever, ever, ever going back.
That's how I feel about the racism of Texas: it changes everything about how you live your life, trying to avoid/survive it. It took 4yr out of it, to really appreciate that. And 30+ more, to exorcise the ghosts of it even partially. Living in SF these last ten has helped a lot -- the presence of so many nonwhite folks helps. And I was lucky, b/c doctor's son, smartest family in town. I cannot imagine what the few black & hispanic families in town went thru, how they survived without massive damage.
35: I realized after posting, that you might have meant "pass" in the sense of "passing as straight". I'm straight, so no passing needed. And no way I can hide my dusky-hued-ness. Though when I was growing up, I sure tried, with a Texas accent thick enough to cut with a chainsaw.
only one family really treated me as fully human
Sure, after you were born. But how many while you were in utero, as the grunge rockers say.