did someone muck with the backend here

Re: Or Is It The Same Hand?

1

That was stalking, but was it really an attempt at an attack? The woman moved first, probably startled the tiger.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 11:22 AM
horizontal rule
2

I was sure the second link would be the person calling 911 mistaking a raccoon for a tiger.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 11:34 AM
horizontal rule
3

Animal Identification Guide
Raccoon: black mask, striped tail
Tiger: N/A because by the time you see it, it's already too late


Posted by: Todd | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 11:53 AM
horizontal rule
4

The Gahanna Lion

https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-05-04-lion-usat_x.htm


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 12:05 PM
horizontal rule
5

What they should do is release a tiger inside Apple headquarters and see what happens. For science.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 1:37 PM
horizontal rule
6

Beta test at Facebook first.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 2:38 PM
horizontal rule
7

Simultaneously. It has to be, otherwise it's not totally valid.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 3:25 PM
horizontal rule
8

You'll need an extra tiger, but no price is too high. For science.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 3:39 PM
horizontal rule
9

Right now Pence is holed up in a hotel room in Lima and the President is about to go on TV to say something about Syria.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 5:57 PM
horizontal rule
10

I could have sworn that last week he said he was pulling us out of Syria.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 6:02 PM
horizontal rule
11

We attacked Syria.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 6:07 PM
horizontal rule
12

Not Mossy. The rest of us.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 6:10 PM
horizontal rule
13

I thought we did that last year.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 6:25 PM
horizontal rule
14

Well, its sure to work this time!


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 6:31 PM
horizontal rule
15

It's like hiring Michael Cohen to pay off a woman. It works until it doesn't.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 6:49 PM
horizontal rule
16

14: The speech Trump given actually makes some kind of sense if it's actually followed through consistently. Which maybe GB and France can do on their own when Trump flakes.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 10:55 PM
horizontal rule
17

Though presumably they won't. And the Syrians are saying their (Russian-made) air defenses shot down a bunch of Tomahawks, which will be a landmark if true.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 11:07 PM
horizontal rule
18

And some baby birds are crying unceasingly outside my window.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-13-18 11:18 PM
horizontal rule
19

OT: on the tube this morning... "We apologise for the long wait this morning but due to staff shortages we are running less trains today. I'm sorry, _fewer_ trains."


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 3:30 AM
horizontal rule
20

Civilization!


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 3:34 AM
horizontal rule
21

Les train, les train.


Posted by: Opinionated, Idiosyncratically-Bilingual Tattoo | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 4:54 AM
horizontal rule
22

Trump just tweeted the phrase "Mission Accomplished," so I guess we can all rest easy now.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 6:46 AM
horizontal rule
23

22 : Brilliant irony!


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 10:13 AM
horizontal rule
24

23: Or maybe it's a little too obvious.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 10:14 AM
horizontal rule
25

He's a troll. He's trolling.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 10:29 AM
horizontal rule
26

I think trolling the Deep State, not us.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 11:28 AM
horizontal rule
27

Not that I favor escalation here, but it strikes me as pretty half-assed to blow up some warehouses outside of Damascus while leaving the Presidential Palace unscathed. If you are going to attack Assad, maybe you should, I don't know, attack Assad? At least it would be a coherent strategy.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 11:38 AM
horizontal rule
28

The way attacking Saddam and Qaddafi was a coherent strategy. Decapitating Syria would just make an impossible clusterfuck more fucked.
Whereas limited strikes* in response to particular uses of chemical weapons might actually have the effect of restoring the norm against chemical weapons use, which is well worth doing.
*If consistent and inflicting significant pain, neither of which has so far been the case.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 11:53 AM
horizontal rule
29

I'm not even saying kill Assad. If you bombed the palace he'd be holed up in a bunker, I'm sure.

But you could wreck his office, mess up some command and control facilities, destroy symbols of his power, and make him feel genuinely concerned with his safety. I think that would go a lot farther toward "inflicting significant pain" than whatever it is we did.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 12:42 PM
horizontal rule
30

29: Half of Damascus has been out of regime control for years. Assad clearly has grit. Given overthrowing Assad clearly isn't actually an objective anyway, I think strikes should do such damage to military targets as clearly to outweigh any gain from using chemical weapons. AIUI Assad's most critical lack is actually personnel.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 12:58 PM
horizontal rule
31

If there are good reasons to do a thing like this, it's incumbent on the Exec to send someone over to Congress to make the arguments. They could explain that we don't actually want to harm Assad or his warmaking capability, lest we upset his major ally, but just want to have an expensive fireworks show. Again. That'll get 60 votes in the Senate, right?


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:05 PM
horizontal rule
32

Its easy to have grit when you are sitting in a palace. Take away his palace!


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:06 PM
horizontal rule
33

To be clear, everything I'm describing is hypothetical. I fully expect this to be nothing but a fireworks show.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:07 PM
horizontal rule
34

Right. I just want to change the venue on the show.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:10 PM
horizontal rule
35

Blow up his palace and you're literally just feeding him grit with his morning yogurt.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:11 PM
horizontal rule
36

To be more precise, I think these types of police action bombings would be more effective if they were used to make it clear that heads of state are to be held responsible for chemical weapons violations.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:20 PM
horizontal rule
37

Decapitating Syria would just make an impossible clusterfuck more fucked.

What about having a secret affair with Assad impregnating him, and then getting Michael Cohen to give him $1.6 million dollars.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:31 PM
horizontal rule
38

Maybe.
This situation is theoretically interesting to me as a very rare case where I think America's airpower-based Middle East policy might in principle be capable of achieving something.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 1:34 PM
horizontal rule
39

Although actually I think Assad would cost more than $1.6m.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 2:00 PM
horizontal rule
40

That's just for silence. If he kept the baby, he could still sue for child support.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 2:04 PM
horizontal rule
41

And he'd sue for more if, let's say, his house were to get blown up.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 2:09 PM
horizontal rule
42

I think he'd be happy if he had a baby with an actual chin.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 2:11 PM
horizontal rule
43

THAT KIND OF THINKING LEADS DOWN A DANGEROUS ROAD.


Posted by: OPINIONATED HABSBURGS | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 2:14 PM
horizontal rule
44

OT: Taking candy from a baby feels horrible. Swiping Skittles from a tween does not.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 3:58 PM
horizontal rule
45

Anyway, the Syrian airstrike made Alex Jones cry.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 4:12 PM
horizontal rule
46

The best accomplishment of the Trump presidency so far.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 04-14-18 4:35 PM
horizontal rule
47

45. I don't follow Alex Jones and have no idea why he is upset to the point of crying about the Syria air strikes. Does anyone out there know? Something about how the previous ones were faked to get us into war with Syria? O RLY?

All the sites that do "war stuff" are crammed with Russian trolls in the comments today.


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 4:17 AM
horizontal rule
48

This explains it. Sort of.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 6:26 AM
horizontal rule
49

47: I looked it up very briefly, and yeah, Jones seems to be concern-trolling that Trump has been misled into bombing by a False Flag Operation (presumably thanks to the Deep State? these things are hard to follow).


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 6:31 AM
horizontal rule
50

The Deep State woke me up five minutes before Stanley.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 6:43 AM
horizontal rule
51

If that's really even you, Mobers. Could be a decoy.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 6:52 AM
horizontal rule
52

British intelligence can prove I'm me.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 6:54 AM
horizontal rule
53

Deep State

The most dangerous safety school.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 9:07 AM
horizontal rule
54

And the most profound.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 9:12 AM
horizontal rule
55

||

Big event here tomorrow, and it's been a long and trying road to get here and I'm totally pooped.


|>


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 9:40 AM
horizontal rule
56

Did you remember to bring the frankincense?


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 9:46 AM
horizontal rule
57

Oh man, I thought I was supposed to bring the myrrh?


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 9:48 AM
horizontal rule
58

I couldn't possibly comment.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 9:55 AM
horizontal rule
59

You're either 8 months early or 4 months late. Either way, I wouldn't stress.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 9:56 AM
horizontal rule
60

I'm to give tours to ex-presidents and such.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 10:03 AM
horizontal rule
61

||

I assume everyone has already seen this? Because it really is amazing.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 10:40 AM
horizontal rule
62

|>


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 10:40 AM
horizontal rule
63

Optimism!


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 12:18 PM
horizontal rule
64

||

To discourage generals from taking such reckless actions, Song sent them a signal by according an unconventional treatment to Hao Lingquan, a general from the Anxi protectorate who had managed to obtain the head of the Turkic leader Mochuo, killed by Bayirku tribesmen in 715. Presenting the head to the court, Hao believed that he had performed a great service to the emperor, thus deserving a generous reward. But Song Jing bitterly disappointed him. Song not only drastically reduced Hao's reward, but also decided to delay his promotion to Commandant of the Right Military Guard for more than a year. An enraged Hao staged a hunger strike to protest and died soon afterward.
|>


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 12:21 PM
horizontal rule
65

Severed heads are like hiring prostitutes to pee on a bed. Neither should be a gift unless asked for in very specific terms.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 12:38 PM
horizontal rule
66

Give me the peed upon head of Alfredo Garcia.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 12:40 PM
horizontal rule
67

Bring me. It's been a while.

Also I will fight to death you motherfucking stupid ass copy editors who automatically reject Oxford commas. Fuck you, you ignorant ass motherfuckers. You didn't even consider how it changed the fucking meaning. I'm going to have to pass by that fucking label I wrote that you fucked up every fucking day I hope you die of pox.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 12:50 PM
horizontal rule
68

Maybe you should hope they die of something that isn't contagious?


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 12:52 PM
horizontal rule
69

You're probably right.Sorry, I've been drinking. What would you suggest?


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 1:10 PM
horizontal rule
70

Scorpions?


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 1:13 PM
horizontal rule
71

I'm good with that.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 1:15 PM
horizontal rule
72

The specifics don't really matter. The important point is, only plan biological warfare when sober.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 1:17 PM
horizontal rule
73

69: Drinking is usually what I suggest.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 1:19 PM
horizontal rule
74

72 to 73.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 1:26 PM
horizontal rule
75

And biowar is Barry's established preference here.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 1:34 PM
horizontal rule
76

Infowar, biowar, whichever.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 2:24 PM
horizontal rule
77

64: his failure to obtain the Right Guard was no doubt due to his being in bad odour at Court.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 3:04 PM
horizontal rule
78

I'm going to assume ajay was struck by lightening right after hitting "Post" on that.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 6:22 PM
horizontal rule
79

78: He had lost the mandate of heavyen.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 04-15-18 11:34 PM
horizontal rule
80

79 is outstandingly virtuous.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:20 AM
horizontal rule
81

This is quite possibly the best one of these.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 4:59 AM
horizontal rule
82

That is pretty good.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:01 AM
horizontal rule
83

OT: I am deeply annoyed by this article and sharing my annoyance.

He starts by arguing, correctly, that Pearson correlation has weaknesses and is commonly used in cases where it should not be used. He then argues, again correctly, that his preferred statistic can do better than Pearson in some circumstances. But he seems to think that nobody has noticed this before and that everybody was just plugging away computing Pearson's r while waiting for a physicist to come develop a better way. Maybe there's some work done on this problem after 1860 and before somebody decided Eugene Volokh was somehow representative of current thinking in statistical analysis?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:46 AM
horizontal rule
84

81 is very good.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 6:24 AM
horizontal rule
85

83: Physicist being arrogant? Say it ain't so!


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 8:10 AM
horizontal rule
86

83. That seems overly negative. The guy is a statistician, his (now deceased) wife was an astrophysicist. They used distance correlation, which he correctly suggested was proposed as a useful alternative correlation method in 2007 (he cites a paper), to extract relationships between galaxies. He (they?) also used it to debunk a simplistic article by Eugene Volokh on murders vs. gun ownership that was published a few years ago.

Moby, did Donald Richards kick your dog once or something?


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:07 AM
horizontal rule
87

I don't have a dog. He failed to kick the dog that bit my ass.

I'm negative because he's ignoring that anybody who knows what they are doing will test to see if the assumptions for any technique are reasonable, because he doesn't mention any of the many other ways of testing for a relationship that improve upon Pearson's r, and because he talks about the distance correlation as a panacea which is only very slightly less stupid than treating Pearson's r as one.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:29 AM
horizontal rule
88

I'm even more annoyed now that I see he's a statistician. If dropping into a new field and saying "I am so right, you are so wrong" is the characteristic failing of physicists, using overly simplistic strawmen as a contrasting point when proposing an improved statistic is the characteristic failing of statisticians.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:34 AM
horizontal rule
89

Will this make Moby even angrier???

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/04/hooray-for-statistics/


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:38 AM
horizontal rule
90

"My new method is a huge improvement over doing things that have been known to be horribly wrong for over a generation, therefore I am right."


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:38 AM
horizontal rule
91

Maybe he just wants a cookie?


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:40 AM
horizontal rule
92

I think a better message would be that the Washington Post shouldn't publish statistical analysis done by a lawyer without review by somebody who knows what they are doing. I don't think that adding more tools to Excel would result in anything but different types of errors if you don't have somebody training or experienced involved.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:44 AM
horizontal rule
93

That makes too much sense to be published in a newspaper.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:46 AM
horizontal rule
94

92: The Full Employment for Statisticians Act.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:48 AM
horizontal rule
95

I doubt it. I think it would result in fewer statistical claims being published. Which is helpful compared to having Eugene Volokh's conclusions being published as if they were science.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:49 AM
horizontal rule
96

93 to 95.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:50 AM
horizontal rule
97

using overly simplistic strawmen as a contrasting point when proposing an improved statistic is the characteristic failing of statisticians.

Shouldn't they be especially skilled at arguing against robust null hypotheses?


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:51 AM
horizontal rule
98

It's a lot easier to argue against really shitty ones.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 9:55 AM
horizontal rule
99

81 is good and I love the poster's twitter handle which makes it even better.

But now I'm having a little sad b/c I *just* came from the Kevin Drum post about distance correlation, which I did not previously know about and thought was very clever, and was enjoying a little "hey-neato-lookit-that" trip but here already I find that I am supposed to not be impressed, so ride over. Aw.


Posted by: Swope FM | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 10:06 AM
horizontal rule
100

I'm not saying it wasn't a neat use of statistics.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 10:08 AM
horizontal rule
101

The astrophysics paper, that is.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 10:11 AM
horizontal rule
102

||
Londoners, pinging about a potential meetup. I'll be in London from the 20th to the 24th; my wife and I are available for a meetup any of those nights, with the caveat that Friday I'll probably be pretty out of it. We had discussed having one Saturday night if that still works for you all. We're staying in the City but are open to anywhere we can get via Tube. Email address is in the link--I don't think I have any of yours.
|>


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 10:16 AM
horizontal rule
103

shouldn't publish statistical analysis done by a lawyer without review by somebody who knows what they are doing.

This feels like way too earnest a comment, but statistics need to be part of the law school curriculum. Not because they come up all that much (they don't) but because when they do come up they are either needlessly and pointlessly ignored, because math is scary, or used incorrectly to support a predetermined conclusion, because making sometimes maybe questionable but reasonable-sounding arguments to support predetermined conclusions is kinda what lawyers do. Either way there needs to be some baseline competence in the (existing, imperfect) science of causation in a field where people deal all the time with issues of great importance where the question is "did x cause y."

That law professors are instead, as a whole, way more into mumbling non-empirical nonsense about "incentives" (newer version: non-empirical nonsense about "market power" and "inequality") , or being tiger moms and publishing novels, is yet another reason why the law schools are a gigantic academic embarrassment.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 10:52 AM
horizontal rule
104

I mean, if statistics had been part of the curriculum, my law school grades would have been worse. That would have sucked for me. But definitely good for society.


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 10:54 AM
horizontal rule
105

Isn't it better for the attorneys' souls that they don't even know enough to know when they are lying with statistics?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 10:57 AM
horizontal rule
106

Ignorance is no excuse.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 11:00 AM
horizontal rule
107

106: I didn't know that.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 11:02 AM
horizontal rule
108

Moby is right that the idea of alternatives to the Pearson r is nothing new (some of the alternatives are literally 100 years old), but I wonder if it's the journalist who's at fault? They always oversell the novelty of everything.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 11:31 AM
horizontal rule
109

I don't think that adding more tools to Excel would result in anything but different types of errors if you don't have somebody training or experienced involved.

At least we can agree on that! At the least clutter up Matlab or R with them. (IANA statistician, so for all I know they both have 47 different ways of doing correlation.)


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 11:34 AM
horizontal rule
110

I don't know about Matlab. R is cluttered with literally everything anybody ever thought of.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 11:40 AM
horizontal rule
111

90. "My new method is a huge improvement over doing things that have been known to be horribly wrong for over a generation, therefore I am right."

"2007-2018 is not precisely a generation, Lord Copper."

110. s/R/every Linux app/


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 11:47 AM
horizontal rule
112

111.1: I don't know who Lord Copper is, but I was thinking of methods that were old when the 2007 paper came out.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 11:52 AM
horizontal rule
113

R's built-in correlation function supports three: Pearson and two alternatives (Spearman rho, Kendall tau). You have to install a package for distance correlation. I realize that as I write this nobody cares, but it's less work to hit "Post" than to delete it.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:06 PM
horizontal rule
114

Question for all the statistics nerds who are here now: I've been using this margins package to get average marginal effects of a logistic regression, but it always returns the warning "'weights' used in model estimation are currently ignored!", I assume because it's a multivariate regression. Is this method flawed-but-best-available, or irredeemably flawed? I'm trying to get a decent estimate of the real-world impacts of the significant independent variables, and need an alternative to regression coefficients.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:15 PM
horizontal rule
115

(amusing extract from another part of the linked documentation: "(e.g., what if all women were instead men? what if all democracies were instead autocracies? what if all foreign cars were instead domestic?)")


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:20 PM
horizontal rule
116

I think they are referring to sampling weights, so that would only apply if you did that for your model. In SAS, I would use Constrast and Estimate statements to get the estimates you are talking about. I have no idea how to do that in R. With logistic regression, you don't want the coefficients anyway. You want the odds ratios.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:26 PM
horizontal rule
117

If Buicks were Porsches, Motown would cry.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:31 PM
horizontal rule
118

116: Oh, weights for each datapoint like in Census data? Yeah, I don't have that. Thanks.

I know I don't want the coefficients, but I've been told AME is a good alternative? I guess I need to look into odds ratios more though.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:35 PM
horizontal rule
119

AME is a fine church.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:39 PM
horizontal rule
120

This is an admirably serendipitous thread.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:41 PM
horizontal rule
121

I think it means sampling weights, and that they've just not gotten around to implementing it yet.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 12:49 PM
horizontal rule
122

||

Some students are filling out paperwork to work with me this summer - ie really common paperwork for summer independent study - and
(1) it's not online
(2) To indicate the semester, the form helpfully says: 200_.

|>


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 1:21 PM
horizontal rule
123

Cross out all printed digits and give the Jewish year.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 1:36 PM
horizontal rule
124

Use carbon paper to make a copy.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 1:58 PM
horizontal rule
125

ditto machine or GTFO


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:02 PM
horizontal rule
126

Gestetner process!


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:05 PM
horizontal rule
127

That was me -- I'm in a new office. In a building that was name-checked in a Bowie song.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:06 PM
horizontal rule
128

You're in Ground Control?


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:26 PM
horizontal rule
129

The song is Diamond Dogs -- I'm in the building Halloween Jack lived on top of.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:28 PM
horizontal rule
130

129: Have they fixed the elevator?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:30 PM
horizontal rule
131

Sadly, yes.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:32 PM
horizontal rule
132

The Ziggy Stardust years were never my favorite.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 2:33 PM
horizontal rule
133

ACTUALLY his persona on Diamond Dogs was slightly different from Ziggy Stardust. Halloween Jack has an eyepatch and a silk scarf and does NOT have a facial lightning bolt.


Posted by: Crytic ned | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:12 PM
horizontal rule
134

If anyone needs an earworm, I've been thinking Heroes off and on for a couple of weeks now. It's pretty good for that.

OK, let's listen again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsYp9q3QNaQ


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:24 PM
horizontal rule
135

114: I tried the package and got the warning also, and the warning appears in the documentation example without any explanation. So I think the software just always prints the warning, even for analyses with no weights. (The most common sense of "weight" is Moby's in 116).

After a logistic regression, the margins() function by default will estimate changes on the probability scale, not the odds ratio scale. The real-world impact is probably better estimated on the probability scale.


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:31 PM
horizontal rule
136

Probably probability.

But, Stata has given me that warning before. I don't remember what I was doing (and I know it wasn't margins).


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:37 PM
horizontal rule
137

OT: Is the occasional bout of crippling hip pain just something you need to plan on happening in your late 40s? I think I want a hip replacement, but don't think Med Express can do one before work tomorrow.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:48 PM
horizontal rule
138

I'm afraid to take naproxen and drink at the same time and I can't untake the naproxen now that it didn't work.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 5:59 PM
horizontal rule
139

There's going to be a special master to oversee the taint team. Best scandal ever.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 6:17 PM
horizontal rule
140

NMM to Harry Anderson.


Posted by: Kreskin | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 7:08 PM
horizontal rule
141

Stormy Daniels and the taint team, all in the same courtroom. The mind boggles.


Posted by: DaveLHI | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 7:09 PM
horizontal rule
142

140: dang. I watched a lot of Night Court.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 04-16-18 8:10 PM
horizontal rule
143

112. You should read "Scoop," by Evelyn Waugh.


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 4:16 AM
horizontal rule
144

I tried to read that and got too annoyed. I think I dropped it when he was at the outfitters. I've tried to read Waugh several times, but never got far.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 5:14 AM
horizontal rule
145

Waugh was an evil son of a bitch who should have been strangled at birth. Even his friends hated him. Everybody can get so far and no further with his stuff. Some people baulk at Decline and Fall; some are OK with that and Vile Bodies but can't cope with Scoop and Black Mischief; Some fall at the hurdle of the war trilogy. Only fervent admirers of Boris Johnson can honestly say they enjoyed reading Bridehead Revisited. In the murky world of English conservative novelists, I'd give everything Waugh ever wrote for two more early Anthony Powells.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:22 AM
horizontal rule
146

|| Double-ping for Londoners--I mentioned it back in 102 but it probably helps to do it at a time when you're all likely to be awake and procrastinating--to see if they still want to get together next week. |>


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:26 AM
horizontal rule
147

Maybe they just don't like you.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:30 AM
horizontal rule
148

They're British, so they were trying to be tactful, but now you're forcing their hands.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:32 AM
horizontal rule
149

Nope, I'm fleeing the country, Narnia-wards.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:33 AM
horizontal rule
150

145: yes agreed, an unpleasant man and an author of unpleasant books...


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:35 AM
horizontal rule
151

They *really* don't like you.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:35 AM
horizontal rule
152

re: 146

When are you around again? Sorry, my schedule is all mixed up, I've been away a lot for work. I might be around, though.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:44 AM
horizontal rule
153

148: Absolutely. I intend to crush their social norms with wanton disregard like a bull in a china shop, because I'm American and goddammit that's what we do.

My books are perfectly pleasant, though.

152: This Friday (20th) until next Tuesday (24th), likely to be jetlagged on Friday but will probably be good for nighttime stuff.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 8:51 AM
horizontal rule
154

145. How did you feel about "The Loved One"? TBH all I remember from "Scoop" is "Up to a point, Lord Copper"* and that it was set (mostly) in a faux-Ethiopia in the '30s.

* Which, for those who don't have the interest in actually reading the book, is how a certainly toady-ish character corrects his newspaper magnate boss when he says something utterly incorrect, such as "chris y is a big fan of Evelyn Waugh" or "elephants are native to Scotland." One of my friends has used it as a catch-phrase for decades, and the habit has affected (infected?) me as well.


Posted by: DaveLMA | Link to this comment | 04-17-18 2:32 PM
horizontal rule