Your predictions from a year ago look pretty much spot on, though not for the reasons you may have thought at the time. I'm impressed

More immediately, I am gratified that most of the world has come to join me in what the appropriate way to celebrate New Year's Eve.

The impeachment seemed like such a big deal last December.

That was a decade ago.

A very 2020 thing: Dread that trump is coming back to the White House instead of attending the Mar-a-Lago new year's Eve party. If doing something means that much to this fucker it must be really bad.

That might be to start a war with Iran instead of a coup.

5: I was really wtf?! about that. I thought conventional wisdom was that he would not return to DC, for fear of having an embarrassing walk of shame out of the white house on the 20th.

Maybe he just plans on going raging 80s hair band on a hotel room, over the entire living quarters.

I did have one good prediction in that thread.

And yet the way things are going, maybe we'd rather not look

6 was my thought as well.

I was right about Klaubachermentum. It peaked at just the right time to sink Warren.

11: If there's anything that is clear in retrospect, it's that Warren never had a chance.

2020 would have been a hell of a mess to try to predict. Technically the virus started in 2019, so an astute person could have predicted its spread and a cynical person could have predicted how the response would be botched, but I often find my cynicism inadequate.

I predict that in 2021 Trump will spend a lot of time in countries without extradition treaties, will decline Secret Service protection, will die about 3 weeks later of polonium poisoning, and Republicans will act like this was all Biden's fault.

13.2 : If this actually happens, I'm thinking the Secret Service will be trying to track down the person that posted this comment.

Cyrus is Vladimir Putin?

Or more realistically Kudryavtsev given the quality of his opsec. He'd totally spend time online commenting anonymously.

Apologies for scanty posting- it is non stop here but we are I think winning, just. By the skin of our teeth.

The Oxford vaccine will save us. And where is the Cambridge vaccine, one asks? Nowhere to be seen!

Good luck. Stay safe.

Not gonna lie it is getting to combat medicine here. Not quite triaging patients yet but I wouldn't bet against it in the next two weeks. After that things will get easier. On the bright side, if I ask for an aircraft carrier right now I could probably get one.

Everybody is in denial here. The aircraft carrier is going to Iran.

20: This is not the time to be planning coups in small vulnerable countries just because you might be able to divert the necessary resources for one.

There's not likely to be a better time for years.

For a coup. Not in general.

You make a solid point. All right, go ahead.

Cool cool.

I don't know what the news is like there, but here it's definitely not processing the sheer number of deaths this week.

22-26: If not us, who? If not now, when?

But if you don't specify an ekranoplan-carrier, you're leaving money on the table.

I guess I'd settle for a carrier of conventional aircraft, as long as it takes the form of a large ekranoplan. (Sort of like that Helicarrier thing from the Marvel universe.)

5-8: Would-be dictator Donald Trump returns to capital city leading to a growing sense of unease among citizens of Covid-ravaged United States.

Denizens of declining superpower warily greet New Year that some say will be better than the previous one.

All eyes turn to emotionally stunted theocrat Mike "Envelope-Opener*" Pence as he prepares to sacrifice his future political career to the demands of democracy. ... Or not! Finding out is half the fun!

*See papers filed in Louie Gohmert lawsuit.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Trump will still be in office at the end of this year.

He's out the 20 of this month.

That's insane. The government may be completely dysfunctional between some embedded Trump appointees who can't be removed, Lochner fan judges saying the federal government has no role beyond funding the army, and maybe the Senate blocking everything Biden proposes, but Trump will leave office on schedule.

It is insane. And yet we have an insane man as president. With a whole bunch of utterly unprincipled people egging him on. I don't think it's going to work, but I think we can be sure he'll try some crazy shit. This, of course, is the problem with the 'what's the harm in giving him time to process his defeat' line we heard 6 weeks ago.

I'm looking forward to the Supreme Court decision that say oh, whoops, sorry, we got Bush v. Gore completely wrong, and VP Gore had the power to just declare himself the winner, Better luck next time, libs.

36 is correct. Despite my gloominess, and the fact that he will try just about everything he can.

47.last: However, their consideration will be limited to the present circumstances, for the problem of subverting election processes generally presents many complexities.

I'm pretty sure whatever happened in Philadelphia last night with the vandalism at a federal building was some shithead, false-flag version of the Reichstag fire. But it would be irresponsible to speculate.

In 22 on that thread I thought Stanley said quarrels, not squirrels, and that seemed prescient.

Charley are in 87 and maybe political football in 128 seem prescient.

I predict at least one particularly galling Trump admin alum / Covid- Survivor will be hospitalized or die from long term symptoms, the schadenfreude will be intense, and people will be super pissy at Biden for wishing them well or giving public condolences.

Does anyone know how E. Messily and Tim's father are?

42: Last I remember from e Messily, she was doing ok.

Tim's Dad died. I remember rushing up there a few days after New Year's last year. He died a few weeks later, and we were there for a funeral. The border shut 5 or 6 weeks later. I wish he hadn't died, but it was good that it happened before the pandemic.

42 -- Look for EM at the other place -- she's got an interesting project going, and has been doing a fundraiser. Email me if you need a link.

And I meant to add that there were other people like Charkey who would have better, more UTD info.

So sorry for your and Tim's loss, Bostoniangirl. I'm glad you got to say goodbye.

DO NOT BE CONCERNED.

47 is great, I retweeted it and it was liked by one of my Dubai mutuals.

THE CHEF DID NOT PISS IN THE SOUP.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jan/02/blind-date-andrea-emily

For the new year,, I'm apparently going to suck at putting in links.

So, I guess the appetite for making actual predictions is substantively diminished compared to previous years.

It certainly has for me.

Me too. I was even too lazy to go try to get easy money by betting on PredictIt after the election was called.

On the plus side, a Republican seat just opened up in the PA House. But I don't even know a Democrat can contend in that district.

If somebody with covid dies of a brain aneurysm, am I correct in assuming that's a covid-related death? Assume a non-spherical legislator who is younger and thinner than I am, but balder.

Turn it up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Son_p6sPeI

Increasingly clear that Trump "strategy" for the 6th is to try to keep Congress from meeting via civil unrest or who knows what.

Which at least makes the "is this really a coup?" question easy.

57: What are you referring to?

His various fundraising arms and proxies are calling for a march on the 6th including directions about which streets to block to prevent Congresspeople from reaching the Capitol. There is of course even more insane and violent shit on the darker parts of the internet.

Of course they're too stupid to realize the 5th is when that might actually have an impact. Pelosi only has a cushion of about 5 votes to be elected Speaker and they all have to be there in person because remote voting rules package expired with the last session.

So we get to see what side the state's security forces are on? Cool, cool.

I admit I'm deriving some sick amusement in these dark times from the brief but acute suffering of Georgians who have to listen to $400M worth of apocalyptic Senate ads anytime they venture near ad-bearing media. It sounds really intolerable.

60: Yes. it will almost certainly all come up a cropper, but some he has tweeted in support of these efforts*

All thing considered, I think my headline in 31 is pretty appropriate.

Now that they have some some cover several of the 11 Rep/ Senators have reversed prior positions acknowledging Biden's win (mealy-mouthed acknowledgments to be sure).

*He has had some bursts of tweets seemingly working on his "legacy" by braggadocio** which are a bit more reassuring than the stirring up ones. So, so much cray cray, and we're all pretty much inured to it.

**Speaking of which, Pompeo seeing that being a suck-up in the bureaucracy is not gaining as much traction as his Cruz/Cotton has launched the most disgustingly hilarious tweets about the great Foreign Policy accomplishments.

62.1: That was also the gist of s story of how some Secret Service agents are being assigned to Biden who had before. Makes sense in any case, but also some of Trump's detail have gone full MAGA, one helped plan the tear gas bible phot op (I think he was in another capacity temporarily).

59: I will admit that I have been at times overly alarmist, but on the other hand I have done a pretty good job of sussing out what tricks they will (usually quite lamely) try.

And per 61, I think there will be some focus on the 5th (belatedly). The uncertainty as Congress reboots itself is ripe for attempted mischief. I do think some members will take extraordinary measures to assure they get there safely*.

*But they may be overreacting as the savvy subfucks of the press will decry after all the Trump stuff falls flat.

From now on we effectively have some bizarre lopsided hybrid parliamentary/presidential system where a Democrat can't be elected President unless their party also controls the House. Hope it take several cycles before that scenario happens!

Or I suppose they could control the Senate since it takes a majority of both houses to throw out electors they don't like under the new Constitutional principle of "because we can", but given the representational skew I can't picture a scenario where Dems control the Senate and not the House.

Honestly, the House and at least once branch of government in PA and Wisconsin.

True, the next step is probably direct selection of electors by Republican controlled state houses without holding an election. They screwed up this time by having the election before talking about legislative appointment, a mistake they won't repeat next time.

Jamelle Bouie's op-ed on the 1820 election is one of the best things I read on 2020 U.S. politics and possibly the best NYT op-ed I've ever read. Obviously a low bar. I think it is necessary to read the whole thing, though.

After the 6th I suspect it his main energy will morph into proactively ratfucking Biden , Federal governance and the country seasoned with continued whining*.

*The tolerance and even embrace of the whining is one of the things that always gets me about the anti-democratic death cult. But I guess grievance is one of the main engines; even the relatively mildly-infected Rs I know are often aggrieved about the world and their situation, despite most of them having quite privileged lived and generally been amply-rewarded for middling contributions to the world via their livelihoods (oh, the taxes they have to pay!). I guess I am most of that but other than being abashed about my situation, and please tax me more.

71.2 Gary Cooper they're not.

61: Hmm. it looks like Speaker vote is today? So 3rd not 5th. And I think only 1 Dem missing. At least 3 Rs.

Shhh I'm trying to trick them into protesting on the wrong day.

71.2: They give out participation trophies at Federalist Society talent shows and NRA tug of war games.

It is worth listening to this audio tape of Trump trying to shake down GA Sec'y of State and his General Counsel. Just what you knew was going on. The whole call was an hour long. More details in the article.