Re: Check Ins, Reassurances, and Concerns, 6/1

1

Iberian Fury closed on the apartment today, got the key, we visited to check that it works. I think we own an apartment now! Crazy.


Posted by: X. Trapnel | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 9:39 AM
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Hooray!!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 9:40 AM
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Had my PCR test this morning for my flight back to NY on Thursday. Nervous because I was expecting results by this evening (it's almost 8 pm here) and haven't heard anything. I need to return to the clinic to pick up the printout with the doctor's stamp and signature and there's not a lot of time left.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 9:43 AM
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We had a few people over for a Memorial Day cookout yesterday which went quite well despite the intermittently rainy weather. It was our first social hosting event using the outside space at the new house.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 10:58 AM
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Still here. Nothing too exciting for the holiday weekend, just a few errands and a lot of different ways to keep the kid busy. I find I'm really looking forward to the summer travel. As I've mentioned, we're planning to spend 6 weeks in other states with my or Cassandane's parents, taking advantage of the new normal of remote work.

However, I can't articulate why I'm looking forward to it. The plan is to work the usual amount in an only slightly improved setting, there's a big difference between being mostly childfree and being completely childfree and those days won't be the latter, there's nothing all that fun to do in either place that I can't do here... maybe I'm just looking forward to the next 3 weeks being over, because they're shaping up to be very busy.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 11:18 AM
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I'm working from the office today for the first time in over a year. I've been leaning toward going back to full-time in the office, but for now I'm just trying it out for this week to see how it feels. So far, remarkably normal.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 11:32 AM
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We're allowed to go back next week, but nobody has ordered coffee yet.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 11:38 AM
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Hi all, longtime lurker. Thought this be a good thread to check if there are plans for a NY meetup anytime soon, now that people are vaxxed and things appear to be back to some sort of normality. Living in the East Village since November last year and would love to connect with folks here. Cheers.


Posted by: carrotflowers | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 12:25 PM
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Hi carrotflowers,

I'll definitely be asking for a NYC meetup post once I've hit the ground in NY and settled in bit so please keep checking the blog and/or feel free to hit me up at the email posted and I'll clue you in.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 12:36 PM
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Let me be the first to suggest Fresh Salt.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 12:38 PM
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There's a name I haven't heard in a long, long time.

(It's also kind of pointless -- it's convenient for my office, but I don't think for anything else, and I'm not in my office still these days.)


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 3:10 PM
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I'm going back to my office next week by my own choice. Too many days blending together, so I'm changing back now that it is more safer.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 3:26 PM
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Got away for a very nice weekend with a friend and some friends of his, a married couple. It was a cabin in the woods; we brought board games and cooked good food for each other. My friend went up a day early and needed some time to recharge by Sunday; fortunately, he was able to nap while the couple and I enjoyed exploring the community.

We have a hike scheduled for Friday... but we're going to have to hike one of the higher trails to escape the 90s in the valley. (It's 100+ from yesterday through Thursday.)


Posted by: Mooseking | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 5:28 PM
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Heading to the Welsh marches for three days to visit friends and catch small silly trout. This has made me sort through the flies and rods accumulated over 45 years. oh dear. There appear to be eleven fly boxes that are largely full with things I can imagine needing and, 12 rods that I actually fish with. along with three that I really ought to throw away. It would not be a kindness to give them to anyone. Some people can't understand why all these are necessary, or at least useful. Well, useful every ten years or something.

It is extraordinary what a power law these accumulations follow. I'm sure that an inventory of the programs and apps I use would show the same pattern: an extremely long tail of things which are needed very seldom but you would miss if without.

It reminds me of one of my favourite stories, about one of John Buchan's sons, taciturn after a winter in a Canadian wilderness cabin: "This is a Bowie knife. Don't need it often. You need it, you need it damn bad."


Posted by: NW | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 10:18 PM
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Our real motto.


Posted by: Opinionated National Nuclear Security Administration | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 10:29 PM
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This is for you, NW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf8iaOyewCs


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 10:32 PM
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14 Sounds like fun.

I'm packing for my trip tomorrow. So exhausted, only got a few hours of sleep last night but I shouldn't let myself nap as I need to get up at 3 am. Nervous because I still haven't gotten the results of my COVID test and I need it to get on the plane. I figure I'll wait until 24 hours after the test, around 11 am here, to send an email and call.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 1-21 10:36 PM
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I think we are going down to the south coast for 2 days tomorrow. Just one night in a hotel. Probably do the usual stuff on Studland (Corfe, Durdle Door, etc) and along the Jurassic coast. I'm not madly looking forward to it as it's quite a lot of driving and it's only me that drives. But the weather has been pretty great all week, so hopefully it'll hold.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 3:22 AM
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Getting on a plane midday today to fly to Louisville to pick up a car from brother-in-law and drive it back here. Flying for the first time in however long seems just as pedestrian and annoying as it did two years ago. There's a choice rant over at LGM on personal protection versus vaccines. I second that rant.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 3:31 AM
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Not going out of town for a while. We've been here for over a year and I haven't been able to take a driving test, so I've lost my driving privileges and we'd have to take a train or fly to go anywhere. Would rather wait until we get our second jabs. But we have an airbnb in one of the south coast resort towns booked for soon after that.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 3:52 AM
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19: I think you could require vaccines AND masks, snd then we could really drive transmission down. Portland State is doing that.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 3:57 AM
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Well I did take a (much needed) nap. Woke up around noon, called the clinic on both their numbers but no one picked up. So I sent an email to the clinic cc'ing the doctor who immediately got back to me and said all the results yesterday were negative and I can come and pick mine up. I'll bet they had them in the morning. Ten minutes later I get an obviously ass-covering phone call from the clinic saying I can get my results. Went to the clinic and picked up my test results (in doubly stamped and signed triplicate because who knows?), returned home, disconnected my car's battery and put on a load of laundry. Fortunately I did quite a bit of packing this morning while waiting for the AC tech to come because my bedroom AC was not getting cold (unbearable here at this time of year).


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 4:07 AM
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Low on the list of gripes, but: I cannot find a goddamn swim instructor. Not like I can find them but they're all booked up. I actually just can't find any person. Like, open-ended query in local parenting groups turned up crickets. I wouldn't have expected it to be hard to find.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:22 AM
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HI!


Posted by: OPINIONATED RIVER LITERALLY IN HEEBIE'S BACKYARD | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:38 AM
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Hi! I don't want my kids to drown in you!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:47 AM
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The packing, it's almost finished.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:47 AM
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23: The JCC has them.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:50 AM
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Which is how come I have now joined a gym.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:50 AM
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There are fewer JCCs around here than you might be picturing. (Now that I think about it, we don't have a YMCA either for that matter.)


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:52 AM
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I DON'T WANT THEM TO DROWN EITHER! YOU CAN TEACH THEM TO SWIM IN ME!


Posted by: OPINIONATED RIVER LITERALLY IN HEEBIE'S BACKYARD | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:52 AM
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The only downside to the JCC is that you can't eat a Slim Jim while lifting.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:55 AM
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Anyone who can teach their own kids something comes from a family with a different dynamic than mine. He'll listen to the sullen teen instructor but drown to prove me wrong.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:58 AM
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I'm definitely overpacking


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:00 AM
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30: I understand the location!! It's what Moby said. I do not need extra power struggles.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:00 AM
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WE CAN DO GOOD-COP/BAD-COP!


Posted by: OPINIONATED RIVER LITERALLY IN HEEBIE'S BACKYARD | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:05 AM
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This reminds me that my son is old enough for a learners permit.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:10 AM
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What's that joke I've seen on twitter, I never shit myself but whenever I pack for a trip I pack enough underwear as if I'm going to shit myself twice a day.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:13 AM
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When in Rome.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:15 AM
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You're going to Long Island, right?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:19 AM
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What's that joke I've seen on twitter, I never shit myself but whenever I pack for a trip I pack enough underwear as if I'm going to shit myself twice a day.

I do this because I loathe wearing sweaty underwear.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:20 AM
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when at home, Heebie sweats only once a day.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:21 AM
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At home, I pack extra underwear and put it in my underwear drawer at home, for easy access.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:38 AM
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The drawers drawer.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:41 AM
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39 Yes, staying with my folks there a bit then a friend in Manhattan for a week or two then Florida with my brother and his kids and back to LI. 49 days.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:43 AM
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Just don't shit yourself in Manhattan. Fine in those other places.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:25 AM
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And wear two pairs of pants if you go golfing.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:35 AM
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Many years ago, I went golfing at a small-town course with my sophisticated urban (Lincoln) cousins. They were kind of smug when the group in front of us kept shouting things like "aim just to the left of the shitter."


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:37 AM
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19: I don't disagree with that rant, but what good would requiring vaccination do without a way to verify it? Those vaccination cards could be faked with a home printer and card stock and as far as I know there's nothing to check it against. Maybe no reliable verification system was set up because they anticipated the pushback, but if anyone thought about it at all, I think the main reason they didn't do anything was just to expedite getting shots in arms as fast as possible.

Vaccination verification isn't required for adults because we don't have a national healthcare system. I wish we had one, but I'm glad they didn't wait to roll out the vaccines until it could be implemented...


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:42 AM
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48 last: ftagn, the annual booster shots might give you the impetus to make one; or at minimum a unified health record database. Which once created becomes the highway for single payer and nice things.


Posted by: MC | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:47 AM
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I got my first post-pandemic haircut. It's now very short. I'm shocked at how much gray hair I turned out to have. I look like a grizzled salt and pepper monchichi.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 10:11 AM
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50 I can't wait to get a haircut, it's been almost a year.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 10:16 AM
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14.3 to 51.


Posted by: cm | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 10:24 AM
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Heh.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 10:27 AM
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I ran into a friend on the way to my car last night -- benefits of working downtown! -- and her outfit has arranged a mobile clinic at a local church where undocumented folks can get vaccinated.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 10:41 AM
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Everyone has shit themselves at some point haven't they?


Posted by: Zedsville | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 11:09 AM
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Everyone has shit themselves at some point haven't they?


Posted by: Zedsville | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 11:09 AM
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Everyone has shit themselves at some point haven't they?


Posted by: Zedsville | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 11:09 AM
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At least 3 times it seems


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 11:10 AM
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I'm assuming that adults who go to Disney without children are doing so because they aren't judged for shitting themselves in the Magic Kingdom. Every other explanation that occurs to me is much worse.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 11:21 AM
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50, 51 -- I got my first post-pandemic haircut last Friday and it was *very weird* to have a stranger hovering in breathing distance of my head for 25 minutes.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 12:45 PM
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i am abandoning my hairdresser bc multiple reasons but last straw was her not getting vaxxed. she has a good outdoor set up & is an excellent colorist (bleachist, these days for me ­čĄú), but actual haircutting has never been her strength so won't miss that. also v v v much will not miss strange random convos revealing unattractive attitudes but couched as seeking my advice. when she was in a salon i had a solid "let's just not talk" vibe going, remove the background noise & everything unraveled. going to hipster razor cutter next week! wish me luck! vow-o-silence!!!


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 12:53 PM
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61: I have had the same stylist for 15 or 16 years - longer than I've known my husband. I've been 2x post pandemic. When things opened up in May/ June 2020, everybody got stuff done. They've been in reduced schedule. We discussed masks at our first appt and vaccines at the last.

He cut back to Friday's only and one Saturday a month. He said he had moved to the burbs and that life seemed to be kind of normal there, though Boston is dead, and that in the suburbs on the high end, some people were having private haircuts at home. He also got a job in a grocery store. Someone in DC told me that their salon near the White a house was at 40-50% capacity. My stylist said they were at more like 10-15% and just trying to hold on.

I called yesterday to schedule and asked if he was going to be expanding his hours. The receptionist scheduler said he was moving - not to the burbs but California in late August. Maybe he decided to pursue his dream of studying architecture, but so very bummed. I was thinking about starting to color my hair, and I would totally trust him. I followed him to another salon for a year and a half. She said she was sure he would give me names, but as she said, this is longer than a lot of relationships.

Also, I found a really good dandruff shampoo from France for my rotation which has sulfates, and I know I would have to give it up if I color my hair. Also expensive. Very sad about the gray.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 3:20 PM
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but last straw was her not getting vaxxed.

Yeah, that would be a dealbreaker for me. I wonder how many customers she will lose, and whether she's really thought this one through?...


Posted by: Just Plain Jane | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 3:51 PM
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My hair went gray at the temple, making me look distinguished.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 4:33 PM
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I haven't had a haircut since September. 2019. Before we moved. I've never enjoyed haircuts and like my hair on the longer side, but it really isn't good now. Have toyed with just having a go at it myself but I keep on thinking we're so close to the end that I might as well wait it out. Pity the poor stylist I eventually pick. (OTOH, I suspect I could find someone here with more experience dealing with Irish big head snydrome.)


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 4:34 PM
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A centralized vaccine registry would be very helpful beyond COVID. I have no idea when my last boosters for various things were or how often you're supposed to get them and would like someone to tell me. My primary care doctor presumably has that info but wouldn't bother to say "come in for a booster" and I haven't gone for a regular checkup in a long time.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 5:36 PM
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66: Does your PCP have a patient portal? Most of them have a spot where you can see all of the immunizations they have on file for you. The CDC publishes adult recommendations. The main ones are flu, TD/TDap, and Shingrix at 50. You're supposed to get onevTDsp as an adult unless you're pregnant, but ACIP said that TDap could be substituted for any TD, which is good because a little of pharmacies stopped carrying TD

MA does have a central registry, but there's no patient portal. I believe you can request a report, but I don't know how far back it goes. Any vaccine you get at a pharmacy here will glue through. You could ask the pharmacist if they are able to pull in your immunizations or if they can only push out what they administer.

I think there are apps for tracking this.

But, umm, you should probably see your PCP at some point to make sure you haven't developed high blood pressure.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 6:40 PM
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There are also pneumonia shots, but you can discuss those at your Welcome to Medicare visit.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 6:44 PM
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At the airport about to have breakfast in the business class lounge which is very nice indeed


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 6:55 PM
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67.last word.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 6:57 PM
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I think all (most?) states have immunization registries. But usually they're only accessible by providers and, I believe, appropriate school district staff. But a PCP should be able to pull the report. I think that CDC is tracking some of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations. But it's not for a national registry but for epidemiological surveillance. After each of my shots I got an email from CDC asking me to participate in a series of surveys. Obviously they got my email and such from either Virginia or my county health department.


Posted by: md 20/400 | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:00 PM
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Champagne breakfast at 5:30 am. Maybe it's time for a beer.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:14 PM
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71: Not all, and unfortunately the different states don't talk to each other.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:17 PM
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67.last, 70: Yes.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:22 PM
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67 last is something I need to address when this lockdown ends. Especially after the past 90+ minutes of apocalyptically bad online tax UX. But I think they're going to give some of my money back at least.


Posted by: MC | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:32 PM
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Fucking crown came off while I was eating a muffin. Good thing I have a dentist appointment on Monday.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:39 PM
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A dentist! A dentist! My kingdom for a dentist!


Posted by: Opinionated Gentrified Richard III | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:43 PM
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Honestly, muffins aren't supposed to be that tough.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 7:57 PM
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Was there a rock that looked like a blueberry?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:24 PM
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If the real story is you were opening a beer bottle with your teeth, think of a better cover before you see the dentist.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 8:57 PM
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80 no, it was bizarre. Fortunately it's way in the back.
Drank three Stellas and am now at the boarding gate. I'm going to drink their top shelf bourbon the whole flight back.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:00 PM
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Feeling a bit racist in giving side-eye to every Indian I see at the gate. If they're a resident here they're likely vaccinated but if they're transiting through here to the US likely not.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:03 PM
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Fuck, some middle-aged Indian dude sitting across from me just coughed.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 9:03 PM
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unfortunately the different states don't talk to each other

Continuing the US approach to public health measures as mainly a matter for states and their subordinate units. Could we use a national registry somewhere under HHS? Yes. But the strictures of federalism will make that unlikely with so many states controlled by anti-government parties.


Posted by: md 20/400 | Link to this comment | 06- 2-21 11:06 PM
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Apple has some weird autocorrect algorithms. How does "go" get turned into "glue"?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 6:01 AM
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It's because their ecosystem is so sticky.


Posted by: MC | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 6:03 AM
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Best not to ask about what happens to horses after they die.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 6:04 AM
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Out of curiosity, I just went to the Apple Store, and Utah has an app which residents can use to track their immunizations called Docket. I'm not sure why other states don't do that.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 6:27 AM
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So they can be confident of blood's propriety before atoning with it.


Posted by: MC | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 6:36 AM
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I started watching Full Metal Alchemist with my kids after some recommendations here. It's interesting, because it's mainly a show for kids. Older kids, but kids. For example, it has the corniest comic relief. (One character's main characteristic is that she loves mechanical things. The one time we see her asleep in bed, there's a wrench next to her.) At the same time, it is frequently very serious. It has the saddest funeral scene I've ever seen in any medium. (The only rival I've seen is the funeral episode of Scrubs.)

Also, the king of the country is known as the Fuhrer. Is this a clue, or do they just think "fuhrer" sounds quaintly German?


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 11:28 AM
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I think all (most?) states have immunization registries.

Alaska has one, but when we went to get the twins' shots updated it turned out one of their records was completely blank even though he had definitely had all of his childhood immunizations. Apparently whoever maintains the state database relies heavily on last name and date of birth matching up as a criterion for uniqueness. (We got it straightened out and he now has a complete record, but it was annoying.)


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 12:04 PM
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"Can you hold the second one in for three more hours and seven minutes? Really helps the IT guys if they don't need to add a third field to the query."


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 12:06 PM
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91: "There can't be that many Hernandezes born on the same day. Implausible!"


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 3:36 PM
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An additional problem in this case was that their first and middle names are also very similar. Attention prospective parents of twins: This is a bad idea.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 3:46 PM
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Okay, somebody needs to get it through the thick skulls over at the Hennepin County Sheriff's Department that shooting someone on the same day George Floyd Square was partially cleared is THE EXACT OPPOSITE of helpful. Do they read the fucking weather report down at the Sheriff's office? The one that says it's going to be pushing 100 this weekend? Man, this is not good. "Let's burn Uptown" is not going to be a tough sell to people. Idiots.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 4:36 PM
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|| I take it back about being depressed about Hussman, the Arkansas newspaper publisher and UNC j-school donor, being a radical centrist who has a principled stance in favor of both-sidesism; he's another culture war chucklehead, just afraid to admit it plainly. |>


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 06- 3-21 6:15 PM
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Apparently whoever maintains the state database relies heavily on last name and date of birth matching up as a criterion for uniqueness.

Well that's just foolish. Aside from the case of twins there wil be plenty of people with common family-names who share birth dates. Smith! Murphy! Johnson! Heck, every few years I get to deal with my records in various databases getting mixed up with a guy who has the same first and last name AND middle initial who was born on the same date as I was. Luckily he lives on the other side of the country so that helps me convince the data people that they've messed up.


Posted by: md 20/400 | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 1:08 AM
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Got my first haircut in almost a year. What a relief. My hair had just about gotten long enough to tie into a ponytail.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 4:08 PM
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How's the tooth?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 5:17 PM
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Ok for now, dentist appointment is on Monday


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 5:26 PM
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I don't remember if I mentioned this, but on the last morning of my two-week May trip to Fairbanks once again to see friends & my 4 godchildren, I also took shameless advantage of teo's FF miles in order to hop over to Anchorage for the the rest of the day before my flight Outside. I therefore flew in to see TeamTeo and meet his new family--both the twins, and the larger set of soon-to-be in-laws--who were hosting a spontaneous family cookout in Wasilla. An enjoyable several hours were had by all, even if the Mitchell's Robot Apocalypse animated comedy turned out to be a bit more dark and disturbing than I had been led to believe by the "standards" of the eight-year-old twin godsons whose family I had just farewelled in FAI, on my way to ANC. I suppose the lesson here is that 8 year olds are not to be trusted.


Posted by: J, Robot | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 6:45 PM
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They probably put a bag of white powder in your luggage too.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 7:34 PM
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It's 70 degrees, clear, and calm with no forecasted change but Pok├ęmon Go is telling me the weather is dangerous.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 8:10 PM
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Re-upping vaccine bleg.


Posted by: MC | Link to this comment | 06- 4-21 11:07 PM
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104: ydnew knows the most about that stuff. Maybe send to heebie for a front page post?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 2:59 AM
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What's your concern- that they're trying to skirt the required clinical trials? If they had enough in 2 to detect rare safety issues and have enough cases in the treatment groups to measure efficacy then it's legit to say two phases was sufficient. But given lower infection rates where they're testing I don't buy that the trial was powered enough if they had a trial 1/10 the size of the US versions.
Typically you do three phases because 1 is basic safety and 2 is where you try to show that there's a benefit but you don't know the best dose so don't want to do an expensive full blown phase 3 before having some sign of efficacy and best dosing regimen. If you're willing to blow the money once you know it's safe you can do a larger phase 2/3 by adapting the treatment arms as the trial proceeds.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 4:43 AM
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Naomi Wolf is concerned that the feces of vaccinated people isn't safe to be pooped into the water treatment system with her glistening doo.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 6:08 AM
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107: In the 90's I thought she wasn't crazy, because the title of her book sounded fine, and Camille Paglia hated her so much. But now, she has revealed herself to be batshit insane.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:20 AM
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106: Thanks.
But given lower infection rates where they're testing I don't buy that the trial was powered enough if they had a trial 1/10 the size of the US versions.
This is where I'm hanging up. Might this make sense as an EUA, on the assumption more thoroughly trialed booster shots/ second doses will be necessary anyway? Is the science now advanced enough that efficacy in Phase III in high-infection populations can be reasonably predicted based on I and II?


Posted by: MC | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 8:22 AM
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There are other measurements you can make on everyone getting the trial vaccine like antibody levels and since there are approved vaccines you can make correlations to antibody response and efficacy about what should work. I don't think they would approve an EUA based on that but maybe along with smaller efficacy numbers?


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:17 AM
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*Smaller* efficacy numbers?


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:21 AM
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I mean measured from a smaller number of people in the trial, which widens your confidence range of the actual efficacy.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:23 AM
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112 makes sense.
I don't understand
I don't think they would approve an EUA based on that but maybe along with smaller efficacy numbers?
which as I read it suggests the smaller trial enrolment makes an EUA more likely; where I'd expect a widened confidence range to make it less likely.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:33 AM
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So my folks are even more Trumpier than ever. Thin Blue Line fascist flag hanging off the mailbox, Jordan Peterson books, My Pillows*, My Pillow Guy books, Fal*n G*ng owned Epoch Times, the whole shebang. It's quite disturbing.

*I slept on a My Pillow last night, it's ok but nothing to start an insurrection over.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:44 AM
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I honestly don't get why you go to so much trouble to visit these people.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:47 AM
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If they run a trial on 5k people split evenly when infection rates are low, in the treatment group vs the placebo group there's only a small difference in total cases because placebo only shows a handful of infections. The stats give you a wide range of possible efficacy because you can have a small number of cases fall more heavily in the placebo group by chance. Not going to open PRISM and run the numbers, but say you had 5/2500 infected in placebo and 1/2500 infected in treatment, that looks good (80% efficacy) but doesn't give you high confidence since you can divide 6 total cases as 5-1 between two populations by chance.
Now, if you had that data plus measurements showing that 95% of vaccine recipients generate antibodies at similar levels to an approved vaccine, and the antibodies neutralize similar to those from approved vaccines, you could argue the 5-1 was not by chance and the vaccine is worth approving until you get more cases in the trial to strengthen the numbers.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:52 AM
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This BTW is why some people argued for challenge trials, since you can get significant case differences with small trials sizes very quickly if you intentionally infect your volunteers.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:57 AM
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116: Thanks! If I had to press you, what would make an EUA reasonable to you, given the enrolment numbers linked above, and assuming Phase II is happening in parallel in high infection populations?


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 9:58 AM
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I think the low bar they set initially was 50% efficiency, similar to flu vaccine some years*. If you had that efficacy and your 95%CI bottom end was positive, along with good biomarkers? I'm just making up numbers, I really don't know what would be considered good other than needing to have the CI greater than 0.

*Noting again it's really astounding just how well the approved vaccines work.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:13 AM
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CI = confidence interval?
Thanks again.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:16 AM
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Right, they usually report upper and lower 95% confidence limits on the efficacy. Moderna was 94.1% effective, confidence interval 89.3% to 96.8%. That's just a straight calculation from the group sizes and numbers of cases in each.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:20 AM
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The math done before the study to determine the sample size needed is called power analysis if you want to look it up. You've got three things: your sample size, the size of the effect, and how sure you want to be of your findings.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:28 AM
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I don't want to look it up, I want professionals to do it for me.
Let's say I want 75% efficacy at 90% confidence.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:32 AM
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That's not how confidence works. It's x% chance of it being in a given interval.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:49 AM
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75% efficacy at 85-95 % confidence.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:51 AM
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That's just too much math for a Saturday. If it was 75% effective, you'd only need around 400 people (it depends on the incidence in the control group) to have a 95% change of finding the vaccine is better than control. The numbers go up pretty quickly when you go from trying to tell .75 from 0 to trying to tell .75 from .7.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:10 AM
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I see the ROC is in a rather steep increase in COVID. Maybe enough to make a trial work with infection as the outcome? Back when rates were 3 a day, you'd need tens or hundreds of thousands.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:31 AM
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But maybe wear a mask on the train.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:34 AM
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Hence the worry. The government is under severe political pressure. When the regulators are calling for less caution than the manufacturers you have to ask questions.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:44 AM
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One of my father-in-law's acquaintances is dying from it right now, if third-hand news is accurate. He could have been vaccinated months ago.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:49 AM
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Can't you get one of the already approved vaccines?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:49 AM
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I mean "you" as in the people making regulatory decisions.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:51 AM
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131: They're arriving painfully slowly; PRC possibly sabotaged a big early BioNTech order.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 11:52 AM
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You're still below Pennsylvania in cases per day, not even adjusting for population. If that's a comfort.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 2:10 PM
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Guess what nation state has more cases per capita than Pennsylvania? This one. You can take this to mean the delta variant is really bad or shots in arms are more important than getting maximal effect by delaying the second shot, or just that it's inevitable that opening up while most young adults are unvaccinated isn't going to end well. Lots of potential narratives. Good news is that cases are not turning into hospitalizations among the vaccinated. (Read: most cases are young people.)

Sad that Roc Island cases are spiking, although thankfully still quite low.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 4:41 PM
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I had to resist saying "Don't bring back Super Covid" to a colleague traveling there.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 4:46 PM
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Sorry, Mossy. Busy week. Kept meaning to comment and then didn't have time to look for comparable trial data. AZ's trial enrolled roughly 34,500 participants and had 190 symptomatic cases for a 76% efficacy against symptomatic disease with 68-82% confidence interval.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/azd1222-us-phase-iii-primary-analysis-confirms-safety-and-efficacy.html

I am not at all a stats person, and it's been thoroughly discussed by Moby and SP.

The COVID vaccine trials have different endpoints that make comparison a bit difficult. Most have been powered to look at efficacy at preventing severe COVID, which means you need higher numbers than if you look at preventing any disease. I'm not entirely sure what the numerical difference would look like if you were powering only for preventing infection, including asymptomatic cases. Lower, certainly, than if you're teasing out more granular data (severe cases, patients >65, hospitalizations, deaths).

What is being proposed is unprecedented from my perspective in terms of a drug approval. I'm not an expert in the area of what regulators need for approval, but in many, many diseases, there is what is considered a gold standard. In cancer, it's survival in months (or years). In TB, durable cure is 2 years with no relapse. There is frequently tension between pharma and regulators - pharma would love to get surrogate endpoints to shorten follow-up time and limit enrollment, both of which would mean higher profit. Regulatory bodies in general prefer not to compromise on endpoints, which also make head-to-head comparisons difficult (an advantage for pharma but disadvantage when comparing new data to standard of care and a disadvantage for prescribers).

I did a little research on the switch of the pertussis vaccine to the acellular form in the late 80s through the 90s. Even though everyone "knew" what a functional pertussis vaccine looked like for prevention of infection, each variant was fully tested and compared to unvaccinated children in reasonably large trials (10,000-20,000 enrolled children kind of size).

I think the science is OK, not particularly worried anyone is going to die based on the calls being made here, but it's deeply weird to watch the regulatory norms being totally ignored for political reasons, particularly when there are excellent alternatives (theoretically) available.

Also, I'm expecting sort of a flood of vaccines out of the US into world markets pretty soon as demand here is slowing considerably but manufacturing rates are still increasing.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:11 PM
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No. I realized I'm not good at explaining things and unwilling to go get my work computer with the right software, so I just kind of stopped.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:12 PM
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Me. And by "research," I mean I read a few summaries of trial data, not actually doing research-research.


Posted by: ydnew | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:14 PM
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138: I thought your explanation was good! 400 cases was an excellent guess given AZ had 190 for a similar efficacy but a lower CI. I was impressed, but not as impressed as if you'd gotten your work computer and played around with it on a weekend.


Posted by: ydnew | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:18 PM
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I don't usually do a priori power analyses. When I was in my previous job, I'd sometimes do post hoc when somebody wanted to write-up a negative result.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:22 PM
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But I agree there's going to be a wave of exported American vaccines coming this summer. There's considerable pressure to export more and not save it as if every asshat in the U.S. is going to change their mind tomorrow.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:25 PM
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They're going to help the vulnerable elderly in Asia right after they get the junior high soccer players in Fox Chapel.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:31 PM
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75 million promised to ship by end of June to hot spots (including Roc). I expect there will be more once we reach the end of Biden's big push to July 4th. Not enough, but an excellent start.


Posted by: ydnew | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 7:33 PM
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Thanks ydnew. And weekend-Moby.
750k for Roc in the first tranche. Which is nice, but actually a very small number (on Friday Japan sent a less-small 1.24m of the AZ their people stupidly refuse to take). I get the logic on the US side, so not exactly complaining, but I think the logic is wrong.


Posted by: MC | Link to this comment | 06- 5-21 10:40 PM
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145: Sorry again to be slow to respond. As I understand it, most of the vaccines are going to places where health care is near collapse - like India and Nepal. It's not clear from US press how doses are being allocated, but my best guess would be that top priority is to get coverage for health care workers in the poorest countries, prioritized by caseload. During the bad Ebola outbreak in 2014, I remember reading that one of the countries (Sierra Leone, maybe?) lost 90% of their doctors. If we learned anything, we should have learned how to prioritize aid during an infectious disease emergency. Roc is in an odd and difficult position - they have an industry the US needs to keep up and running (hence the aid), a bunch of political roadblocks to obtaining non-Chinese vaccines but sufficient money and a good healthcare system to hold out quite a while, monitoring, and generally great citizen compliance with mitigation measures.


Posted by: ydnew | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 4:00 AM
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The population of the ROC is lower than I thought. I guess I had always thought it was over 50 million. It's only like two Pennsylvanias.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 5:53 AM
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It's a large ROC the size of a small ROC.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 6:03 AM
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The Republic of Corea is Spain.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 6:27 AM
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¡Viva la República del Ecuador!


Posted by: Opinionated Presidente Rafael Correa | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 6:41 AM
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I lifted for the first time in fifteen years. I don't feel bad yet.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 8:41 AM
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When I start lifting after a break, I get horribly sore -- to the level where it seems clear that lifting is a very bad idea. But that only happens two or three times and then it stops.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 9:09 AM
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I think that will happen, but not for a couple of hours more.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 9:36 AM
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I may never lift again because I am locked in mortal combat with my old gym. I tried to cancel my membership during the pandemic because it seemed unsafe, and was informed that they would only accept cancellations in person at a branch. I became a little disproportionately irate about the public health implications of this, and refused to go in, instead calling them repeatedly to tell them I wanted my membership cancelled. They have now sent the unpaid dues to collections, and I am writing letters to the collection agency about public health and my intent never to pay the damn fees unless they sue me, in which case I plan to show up in court and yell about public health there.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 10:02 AM
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That's not the way to get healthy.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 11:25 AM
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Pointless, ineffectual ire is a vital part of emotional health.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 11:39 AM
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I've never been to a therapist so I'll have to assume you're right.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 1:05 PM
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Justice is on your side, LB, never give up the fight.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 1:37 PM
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I might join another gym once I'm back in the office full time, but for now running suits me.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 1:45 PM
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159: You could do body weight exercises or get resistance bands and use them at home.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 1:58 PM
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Resistance bands aren't going to be needed until 2025, but practice is good.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 2:00 PM
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154: The gym didn't happen to be NYSC, did it?


Posted by: Nathan Williams | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 4:04 PM
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The one run by Lance Bass and Joey Fatone?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 4:24 PM
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We need better resistance bands.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 4:37 PM
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AIHMHB the Boston branch of that shitty corporation charged us money (pre-pandemic) in blatant violation of the law, sent a $25 bill to collections, and only backed down when I showed them a letter I'd sent to the state AG office. They pulled pandemic scams similar to what you described on many people.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 5:03 PM
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My gym is religious so they can't cheat me.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 5:07 PM
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But this morning the foot strap on the good rowing machine was broken.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 5:10 PM
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No, Blink. Who I thought was terrific before this.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 6:20 PM
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The truly religious have no need to row.


Posted by: Opinionated Jesus Christ | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 6:31 PM
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Sorry. It's a JCC.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 6:34 PM
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Jesus Christ, Coxswain.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 9:05 PM
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No one listens. It's as if you don't know what you're doing.


Posted by: Opinionated Jesus Christ | Link to this comment | 06- 6-21 9:19 PM
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