Re: FTX

1

Heebie, this is like Fyre Festival to the power of Enron.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:12 AM
horizontal rule
2

Matt Levine, rather than Molly White in this case, is probably the best person to read on the enormous FTX crypto collapse. His best guess seems to be that SBF's hedge fund, Alameda Research, made a wrong-way bet of some kind, and then used customer funds from FTX, its associated brokerage, to fill the holes and bail itself out, like a manager who keeps taking money from petty cash and losing it at the track. (See "but where did it go?" in that link.)

Also it's not shocking that an insufferable Effective Altruism type* who just did a multibillion dollar fraudulent whoopsie didn't like the (very funny and grim) Venomous Lumpsucker, a science fiction book that is in part about how effective altruism/green markets types are going to make a difference somewhere between "none at all" and "quite a bit, for the worse".

* The Tumblr's name is a Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reference, which confirms a lot of presuppositions for me.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:19 AM
horizontal rule
3

I'm curious to what extent FTX collapsing hurt people who aren't crypto bros who could have known better. Their families, I guess, but any cascades?


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:21 AM
horizontal rule
4

"Who could have known better" modifying "crypto bros" in 3.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:22 AM
horizontal rule
5

Let's give nerds money. That can't go wrong.


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:26 AM
horizontal rule
6

stephen diehl remains my go-,to source for lucid, trenchant commentary on all things bitcoin & crypto - v recent interview here https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/11/the-entirely-predictable-collapse-of-ftx-exposes-the-failures-of-regulators-and-journalists & he has a book that i haven't tbh bothered to read & lots of other good interviews out there. i think his interview on tech won't save us iirc was particularly good at explaining diff types of fiscal instruments & how they do or in the case of crypto don't tie back to anything of value & also a nicely detailed taxonomy of scams


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:28 AM
horizontal rule
7

I don't think anyone is quite sure yet about the degree to which there's going to be spillover into real world stuff; Enron was, what, the largest utility company in America when it blew up, right? It had gas futures with everyone, was screwing around with California to trigger the Gray Davis recall, etc. etc. FTX was a huge player in the crypto world and there are going to be a lot of knock-on effects in Cryptostan, but right now the fallout seems largely limited to crypto companies, venture capitalists who backed FTX, and the various charitable organizations feeding at the FTX trough (many of which are perfectly normal charitable organizations and not of the "save the three trillion humans of the year 3500 from the dangerous of HELLMATRIX" types). The big questions are whether there will be spillover into "normal" financial organizations, and whether this triggers any kind of bank run on the even-bigger-deal-in-Cryptostan Binance/Tether, which is a whole separate story that I can't believe is still going on.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:29 AM
horizontal rule
8

1 is great but needs more polycule


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:33 AM
horizontal rule
9

Crypto only invests in crypto.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:36 AM
horizontal rule
10

9 to 7


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:36 AM
horizontal rule
11

I'm so glad nothing I wrote at 26 exists anymore, except maybe one journal article and some conference papers.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:51 AM
horizontal rule
12

9: and, hopefully, only crypto invests in crypto.

Well, only crypto and the government of El Salvador.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:53 AM
horizontal rule
13

I second the recommendation for Matt Levine. It took me a little while to get used to his writing style, but once I did I'm convinced that he's a very, very good writer.

8: for example-- https://nitter.net/dsquareddigest/status/1591448730573901825#m


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:55 AM
horizontal rule
14

Client funds can't have sex.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:03 AM
horizontal rule
15

11: thank god I didn't start blogging until I was 27.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:05 AM
horizontal rule
16

3: Yes, the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan invested a lot in FTX, but I think that's the only big "normal people" knock on effect.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:13 AM
horizontal rule
17

i wonder if the 20 something male relative who's been surfing the crypto wave for five or so years has done anything prosecutable? 🤔


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:19 AM
horizontal rule
18

The big questions are whether there will be spillover into "normal" financial organizations

I'm guessing no. The normal financial organization who dabbled in crypto were long since burned by the plunge in bitcoin prices from $66K to $20K. The crypto market at this point is almost entirely dead-enders and true believers. The normies have already left the building.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:22 AM
horizontal rule
19

Fucked in the head is the new norm.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:23 AM
horizontal rule
20

David Gerard has been on this beat for awhile and is also very good
https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:25 AM
horizontal rule
21

i wonder if the 20 something male relative who's been surfing the crypto wave for five

My 20 something female relative was part of a crypto-couple that broke up after the crash and not long after that she attempted suicide. This thing does have some very bad outcomes.


Posted by: George Washington | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:30 AM
horizontal rule
22

21: so grim that i suspect age & gender will insulate my relative from this reaction. he spent at least some time - maybe even most of his time? i avoided learning details - on what i suspect was selling to new marks so my sympathy is well nonexistent. was fascinating to watch his parents strenuously avoid any understanding of what he was doing, all much too complicated, just technically waaay beyond them.


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:36 AM
horizontal rule
23

My relative was marketing NFTs to an affinity group. She really believed in what she was doing, at the time. And I would expect ended up losing quite a bit of money.


Posted by: George Washington | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:40 AM
horizontal rule
24

That's awful for her and her poor parents. I hope she can recover.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:42 AM
horizontal rule
25

My personal blog is still out there (I've occasionally linked to it here). I've had it since I was 21, although there are several years with fewer than a dozen entries. Starting this winter I made it a point to update it daily, as an exercise in onanism the craft of writing whatever the usual reasons for keeping a journal are, and I've managed to stick with it since then.

Blog aside, I was a reporter for a while, and clippings of all my stories are in the basement, and should still be readable if they aren't too moldy. Someone might appreciate them someday, I guess. I think two or three news articles and one opinion piece might not be horrible.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:42 AM
horizontal rule
26

That's right. I have my articles from when I did the college paper.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:44 AM
horizontal rule
27

mine was, e.g., on cruise ships i suspect fleecing retirees. he's got a family cushion if he needs it. with his white collar he's unlikely to ever be prosecuted let alone do time. wouldn't be surprised tho if the facts end up making a decent case for him spending some time up river.


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:45 AM
horizontal rule
28

so grim that i suspect age & gender will insulate my relative from this reaction.

I thought men were more likely to commit suicide than women? Is it different in the US?


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:55 AM
horizontal rule
29

Women are much more likely to attempt suicide (but the vast majority survive), men are much more likely to use a gun and as a result are a majority of the fatalities.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:57 AM
horizontal rule
30

Actually read the Rockefeller post - what "cringe" was coined for. Of course starts the story after he created a monopoly on pretty much all oil in the country, partially inspiring the first antitrust laws.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 9:28 AM
horizontal rule
31

28: ref was to the differential in self awareness & susceptibility to feelings of culpability between young white comfortable women & men. my relative not a usian.


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 9:44 AM
horizontal rule
32

What is the following rhetorical construct called:

Jennifer Doudna is honestly kind of boring? Which is probably a good thing!

This use of an exclamation to inflect the prior sentence in a faux-informal manner is something yglesias does a lot (and I viscerally despise him - I would cast him into the same oubliette as David Brooks). It's spreading like a pox and needs to be stopped.


Posted by: Nope@nope.com | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 9:57 AM
horizontal rule
33

That's just cruel. No one deserves to be trapped with David Brooks.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:00 AM
horizontal rule
34

Doudna is not boring, whoever wrote this is outing themselves as an idiot.


Posted by: lw | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:07 AM
horizontal rule
35

@34 That line was copied from the linked tumblr.


Posted by: Nope@nope.com | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:17 AM
horizontal rule
36

31: maybe we should have a pause on wishing that other people should commit suicide, especially in subthreads including people who have just announced that a relative of theirs attempted suicide.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:35 AM
horizontal rule
37

At the one company, they were using dopamine agonist patches often prescribed for Parkinson's disease that have been "linked to the development of compulsive behaviours, especially at high doses, including addictive gambling, compulsive shopping and an excessively increased interest in sex".


Posted by: lemmy caution | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:38 AM
horizontal rule
38

36: wtf??? dude you are derangedly misreading jfc.


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:44 AM
horizontal rule
39

12. Also at one point Estonia, I believe, which is in the EU. I haven't seen any horror stories from the Baltic, so I suppose they're OK


Posted by: Chris Y | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:45 AM
horizontal rule
40

I don't read 31 as encouraging but the talk of being "insulated" does not seem like a good topic given other posters and just my general knowledge of the topic.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 10:49 AM
horizontal rule
41

I want to know significantly more, but maybe not everything, about 37. "They were using" in the sense of "the 7th floor guys were all using cocaine," or was there some business logic?


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 3:05 PM
horizontal rule
42

Screenshots at the bottom of https://milkyeggs.com/?p=175 are a good read on the final days as FTX went under.


Posted by: torque | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 3:15 PM
horizontal rule
43

Wouldn't anything that worked against Parkinson's really increase your interest in sex if you did have Parkinson's?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 3:23 PM
horizontal rule
44

42: Rich people are so weird. Why would investors just give them huge sums of money without requiring a grownup around and without checking whether everyone was on drugs?


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 3:38 PM
horizontal rule
45

"Hey, you got your cocaine in my financial services."

"Well, you got your financial services in my cocaine."


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 3:41 PM
horizontal rule
46

was there some business logic?

I'm imagining an activity diagram with a diamond on it connected to lines heading in different directions labeled [does drugs], [productivity drops].


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:20 PM
horizontal rule
47

The link in 42 suggests that they did indeed justify at least some of the drug use in business terms.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:24 PM
horizontal rule
48

The sourcing on that piece is pretty thin, admittedly, so probably everything in it should be taken with a grain of salt.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:27 PM
horizontal rule
49

Don't salt your drugs.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:35 PM
horizontal rule
50

I thought salting your hash was considered good practice in the crypto community.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:43 PM
horizontal rule
51

Gummies are better. You can get them trick or treating.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:44 PM
horizontal rule
52
the Financial Times reported that SBF is remarkably bad at League of Legends . . . While this may initially seem like a frivolous observation, it is actually shocking that SBF was unable to rank higher than the Bronze or Silver league after years of regular play across hundreds if not thousands of individual games. It is reflective of an incredibly impaired level of cognition . . .

I skimmed quickly, got to that graf, and came away completely satisfied with my learning experience.


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:47 PM
horizontal rule
53

I don't know exactly what I had in mind with "business logic," but thinking further about it led to "Bro, listen, our dog food is so motherfucking good, man, it's SO DAMN GOOD, I just ATE ONE MILLION CANS"


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:49 PM
horizontal rule
54

For a second, I thought League of Legends was that trivia league that's impossibly hard except for Thorn and others here who inevitably do extremely well. For more than a second, actually.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 5:58 PM
horizontal rule
55

I'm sure SBF would be bad at that too.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 6:16 PM
horizontal rule
56

He cheats. It's easy if you cheat.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 6:17 PM
horizontal rule
57

Fair point.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 6:25 PM
horizontal rule
58

My terrible performance so far this season is therefore proof of my personal integrity.

...laydeez.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 6:26 PM
horizontal rule
59

Client funds can't have sex.

I have apparently misunderstood junk bonds altogether.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:01 PM
horizontal rule
60

54 made us laugh so hard here. (Learned League is what you're thinking of.)


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in.” (9) | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:11 PM
horizontal rule
61

59: Reminds me of that woman who got revenge with super glue.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:13 PM
horizontal rule
62

Sadly the FTX execs don't seem to be LLamas, was curious about their trivia skills.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in.” (9) | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:13 PM
horizontal rule
63

To invite someone you have to check a box that says "I vouch that my referral is of the highest honor, and will never cheat"; I'm not sure but I bet stealing $16 billion, even in non-trivia-related activity, would disqualify them.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:20 PM
horizontal rule
64

(Mad respect to anyone stealing $16 billion in a trivia related heist, though. Knowing that the US state closest to the continent of Africa is Maine paid off big!)


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:22 PM
horizontal rule
65

If I understand right, they only *stole* $10B. SBF's net worth is down $16B, and the company down more than that, but that's because the company collapsed (in part, but not solely, because of the $10B they stole).


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 7:34 PM
horizontal rule
66

That's bullshit. New Hampshire is closer than Maine.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:12 PM
horizontal rule
67

Is New Hampshire a commonwealth?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:17 PM
horizontal rule
68

62. May not have used a real name. Plus, LL doesn't allow payment with crypto.


Posted by: lw | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 8:55 PM
horizontal rule
69

No, its a Hampshire.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-15-22 9:28 PM
horizontal rule
70

69: Is a Hamp a North American variety of hobbit?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 4:58 AM
horizontal rule
71

No, that's a Hemp. A Hamp is a lovable but slightly scurrilous feral pig.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 7:03 AM
horizontal rule
72

I'm waiting for crypto to be dead enough that I don't have to pay attention. Did that happen?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 7:14 AM
horizontal rule
73

As long as there are rubes with money, crypto will survive.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 10:40 AM
horizontal rule
74

At its core crypto is about solving the double-spend problem without a trusted third party via proof of work. Various scams will rise and fall but crypto will never go away entirely because of this kernel of beautiful and non-bullshit coolness.


Posted by: torque | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 10:51 AM
horizontal rule
75

Define "non-bullshit".


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 11:02 AM
horizontal rule
76

It really does solve the double-spend problem without a trusted third party [albeit at the cost of a lot of electricity].


Posted by: torque | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 1:14 PM
horizontal rule
77

The fuck it has. There's still the very real threat someone gets 50.1% of the market and can double spent without interference.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 1:21 PM
horizontal rule
78

Fair criticism. It seems you have been paying attention!


Posted by: torque | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 1:29 PM
horizontal rule
79

Right. I want to be able to stop though


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 1:38 PM
horizontal rule
80

SBF doesn't sound like he's in a headspace to be thoughtful at the moment: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 2:38 PM
horizontal rule
81

I'm not like a lawyer and this is not legal advice, but giving that kind of interview for someone in his position seems like a really, really bad idea.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 2:45 PM
horizontal rule
82

Instead of calling it "double spending" they should have called it "mining decoyns."


Posted by: Todd | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 2:51 PM
horizontal rule
83

80, 81: Yeah, maybe the drugs really did fry his brain. (Or maybe he was just never that bright to start with.)


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 3:25 PM
horizontal rule
84

Or being extremely wealthy fried his brain.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in.” (9) | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 4:20 PM
horizontal rule
85

It may have been pre-fried. Just look at his name!


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 4:22 PM
horizontal rule
86

It's pronounced "Chum-ly".


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 5:02 PM
horizontal rule
87

Rich people -- even "self-made" rich people -- are often dumbfucks in very ordinary ways. Ask Elon Musk.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 6:00 PM
horizontal rule
88

80, 81: That's an absolutely amazing thing. Sometimes an ordinary headline can't do justice to a story. The current headline is:

Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself

I would propose in the alternative:

Sam Bankman-Fried: Just read this crazy shit

Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 6:36 PM
horizontal rule
89

Vox is probably hoping to get him to tell them more crazy shit in the future, so probably doesn't want to phrase it quite like that.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 6:37 PM
horizontal rule
90

Vox straight-up calls him a dumbfuck for doing the interview:

I didn't expect him to respond -- typically, people under investigation by both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice don't return requests for comment. Bankman-Fried, though, apparently wanted to talk

So if your motive is to keep him as a source, you omit discussion of how dumb he is, and you say this in the headline:

Sam Bankman-Fried: Holy shit

Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 6:51 PM
horizontal rule
91

I'm not familiar with the interviewer, but it's a spectacular piece of work.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 6:53 PM
horizontal rule
92

She's been pretty sympathetic to him in the past, like a lot of Vox-adjacent people, which is presumably why he felt comfortable telling her all that.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 6:57 PM
horizontal rule
93

Yeah, they're part of the same quasi-religious movement, and SBF's personal foundation was one of the major funders of "Future Perfect," the part of Vox where she works. So you can sort of see why he thought she was "on his side" or something, but obviously that's dumb and seems to utterly misunderstand the job of journalists.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 7:10 PM
horizontal rule
94

I'm impressed by his ability to keep talking on the record, and I guess the story is such a big deal that reporters are going to put lots of his words in the press, but every time I look at one of the stories and start scrolling I think: why would I ever read so many of his words?


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 7:23 PM
horizontal rule
95

logorreac altruism


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 7:24 PM
horizontal rule
96

I'm going to invent an AI lawyer. It's going to be one of those dolls where you pull the string and it talks saying, "For fucks sake, shut your mouth."


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 7:39 PM
horizontal rule
97

Contact me if you want to invest.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 7:41 PM
horizontal rule
98

Watching billionaires lose their shit has been a thing lately.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 8:41 PM
horizontal rule
99

Yeah. Watching Musk set all his money on fire and use it to torch his own (previous very good!) reputation has been quite the spectacle.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 11:29 PM
horizontal rule
100

+ly


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-16-22 11:30 PM
horizontal rule
101

twitter-backed securities
collateralized tweet obligations


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 12:53 AM
horizontal rule
102

Via Hilzoy, this thread of quotes from the bankruptcy lawyer is wild...

https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1593254949508775936?s=46&t=siPV0FxpQP2ssdHaOxxaAQ


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 8:29 AM
horizontal rule
103

This had me laughing to tears this morning.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 10:40 AM
horizontal rule
104

102: And to think, Saiselgy turned down an opportunity to work for this guy.

Several months ago, I found myself having a few mocktails and splitting vegan snacks with Sam Bankman-Fried at a restaurant near my house. We touched on, among other things, his proposal to create a new publication featuring writers he liked, including me.

https://www.slowboring.com/p/some-thoughts-on-the-ftx-implosion


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 10:48 AM
horizontal rule
105

104: That's actually a pretty good piece by Saiselgy, who has been generally not-great lately.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 11:13 AM
horizontal rule
106

105: You didn't appreciate his mea culpa for his midterm predictions?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 11:25 AM
horizontal rule
107

I no longer read all his stuff.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 11:48 AM
horizontal rule
108

I generally don't read any of his stuff anymore, so I appreciated the move to a single-author substack.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 12:05 PM
horizontal rule
109

I hardly read anything these days.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 12:10 PM
horizontal rule
110

106: is that the one in which he said he had underestimated the ability of Democrats to overcome unpopular positions with vague but effective advertising? I was not impressed (and I often like his writing).


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 12:14 PM
horizontal rule
111

Actually, probably not the same post. I have a free subscription, and I was thinking of the emailed version of the 2nd anniversary post-- which looks like it had more than shows up on the web, even for an unpaid subscriber.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 12:22 PM
horizontal rule
112

I'm sure everyone will be shocked to learn that SBF's "pandemic preparedness" ideas are also terrible. (Though apparently sincerely held? I don't see an obvious grifting angle for SBF personally in this stuff. The people he funded, on the other hand...)


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 12:53 PM
horizontal rule
113

There's a weird nexus of EA-type ideas and lab-leak conspiracy theorizing that SBF seems to have been very enmeshed in, and his money led otherwise reputable media outlets like ProPublica to sanitize and surface it. (Vox is very involved too but in a more central way less dependent on SBF's money.) It's very concerning because the specific ideas seem to be both wrong and dangerous.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 1:08 PM
horizontal rule
114

Roko's Gain-of-Function


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:18 PM
horizontal rule
115

Is *that* what happened with ProPublica? I was surprised by how bad that article was.


Posted by: Todd | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:25 PM
horizontal rule
116

Apparently, yeah.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:30 PM
horizontal rule
117

It's kind of interesting that EA people seem attracted to the notion that science is the real enemy -- the greatest dangers to humanity are virologists and AI researchers.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:43 PM
horizontal rule
118

I didn't read the ProPublica article but I thought the Vanity Fair author was already writing lab-leak articles. The ProPublica collaboration did surprise me.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:48 PM
horizontal rule
119

I mean, the obvious answer is "finance people."


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:48 PM
horizontal rule
120

117: "rationalists" reinventing religion.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:48 PM
horizontal rule
121

119 to 117.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 2:50 PM
horizontal rule
122

twitter seems to have innovated a run on employees, beyond anything crypto has done to bank runs.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 5:53 PM
horizontal rule
123

It's wild. They're down to like 12%. I'm amazed the site still functions.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 5:57 PM
horizontal rule
124

The Dead Sea Effect would suggest those 12% aren't actually the one's you would want around to keep the place running.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 6:53 PM
horizontal rule
125

It's mostly just the people on work visas still around. So probably not as incompetent as 124 would suggest.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 7:05 PM
horizontal rule
126

If Twitter DOESN'T crash this weekend it's curtains for the rest of us big tech sinecurees.


Posted by: torque | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 7:06 PM
horizontal rule
127

Being forced to work for Elon Musk or your visa gets cancelled, that's grim.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 7:27 PM
horizontal rule
128

Someone was trapped into working with me because of a visa. But he later recommended me for my current job, so I was probably nice to work with.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 7:42 PM
horizontal rule
129

Or he hated the person he recommended me to.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 7:45 PM
horizontal rule
130

Wouldn't it be nice if, instead of paying $44 billion to ruin Twitter, Elon had paid that money in taxes?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 8:22 PM
horizontal rule
131

Because of the 1st Amendment, even though the government could have ruined Twitter for much less, they weren't allowed.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 8:25 PM
horizontal rule
132

Perhaps ruining twitter is ultimately best left up to the private sector.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-17-22 8:28 PM
horizontal rule