Re: Jury Duty

1

Here, we get put on jury duty for three months. We have to call in every Monday morning to see if we've been selected as part of a jury pool for that week, and if so we have to show up at seven to sit in a courtroom and see if we get seated on a jury. No phones allowed, no matter how long we sit there; but we could read actual books.

I never got seated, since in Arkansas they don't want a woman with a PhD on the jury, I guess? I did get voir dire'd once.

My advice would be to go for it, and then if you get voir dire'd talk about how liberal you are. That works in Arkansas, so it might work in Texas.


Posted by: delagar | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 6:55 AM
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It's weird, neither of us has gotten jury summons here in 10 years. It just doesn't seem very common here (relatively to say Berkeley where people were getting summons all the time).


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 6:58 AM
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"I favor a citizen-based execution regime, Your Honor, but, you know, axe, scimitar, pile of rocks--I'm easy like Sunday morning in the Massachusetts Bay Colony."


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:34 AM
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"I favor a citizen-based execution regime, Your Honor, but, you know, axe, scimitar, pile of rocks--I'm easy like Sunday morning in the Massachusetts Bay Colony."


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:34 AM
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Once in my early 20s I showed up to jury duty still drunk. I think I was seriously hungover by the time I got called up and didn't get selected.


Posted by: Long Time Lurker | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:43 AM
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At the one I was at, nobody was called up. They just sat us in order, and had individual conversations moving through the audience. So everyone just sat there and listened to everyone else.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:56 AM
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"Call me Shirley Jackson because I've got a lotta reasons to embed the disorder of the punitive into collective rituals of society, am I right?"

At this point a bailiff may be called.


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 8:06 AM
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It was insane how often the summonses came in Berkeley, and I really want to know what the reason was--is Alameda County just super litigious per capita? We've been in Contra Costa ten years and I haven't had one.


Posted by: lourdes kayak | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 8:31 AM
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I got summoned once when I lived in the Atlanta area. The book I brought to read was The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test. I was neither questioned nor selected.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 8:56 AM
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Just guessing, but I would bet that you need to screen more people to seat the same number of jurors in different parts of the country. I know that lawyers don't much like too many educated jurors and I know that people with busy jobs don't like being on juries. So maybe you need to call more people when you're in university-techy areas?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 9:11 AM
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Could be. People in Berkeley may also be disproportionately aware that there's no proof of service on a summons sent through the mail, and that there are no consequences if you simply shred them as they arrive.


Posted by: lourdes kayak | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 9:16 AM
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(I myself did not shred them)


Posted by: lourdes kayak | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 9:16 AM
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Rich people are assholes that way.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 9:16 AM
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13 to 11.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 9:18 AM
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The judge I clerked for said that whenever there was a college professor on the jury, delberations take noticeably longer. And the rare occasions that there are two college professors on the jury, deliberations take forever and no verdict will be reached.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:08 AM
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Only time I've ever been summoned was for a state grand jury. I sat dutifully through all the preliminaries, but when the (rather charming) judge got to who was exempt, it was super clear that I, as a sole practitioner, was exempt (and, indeed, it would have been all but impossible to do it; it wasn't just a technicality or excuse). But I was ever so slightly bummed; the judge had really talked it up, and I'm all about the civic duty.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:18 AM
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We had no professors, but we had either two or three grad students (including me) and one UC Berkeley admin staff.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:31 AM
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My wife still gives me crap about the one jury I served on for a DUI case. I convinced the rest of the jury to not convict, and the prosecutor was pretty clearly shocked by the verdict.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:36 AM
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I've been called a couple other times but was only selected that one time. When I deferred, they did not give any choice about when I might end up having to show up.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:37 AM
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In The Before Time, I also got summonsed, and it was sitting in my to-be-opened mail pile for a few weeks, so by the time I opened it, the time had passed. I called 'em up and found that my group wouldn't have been called to appear, so it was all OK. But (civic-minded) I asked if there were some way I could be scheduled to be summonsed again *soon*, and on a week I knew in advance, so I wouldn't miss the letter. No go. I don't understand why they don't make it easier to serve on a jury. I mean, it's already bad enough that lawyers are all lying scum who are paid to lie, all cover for each other, and you basically can't trust a word from their mouths. It's already bad that somehow you're supposed to come to an understanding of the truth by judging the *believability* and *sincerity* of people for whom you have no other information. I mean, that's all *bollocks*. But then they make sure to roll the dice to put you in a maximally inconvenient position, when with a little work, they could arrange that people were called when it was convenient for them? Ridiculous.

Of course, all of this is moot: until the covid death rate goes down to "a bad flu year" I'm not gonna sit in a foreign building for 8hr surrounded by unmasked Covidiots.


Posted by: Chetan Murthy | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:38 AM
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interrupting with a time sensitive bleg!

any information/opinions/ advice re univ of toronto phd linguistics program for someone doing syntax & language revitalization, thanks hugely in advance!

teo - ???? others???


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:38 AM
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I was summoned once, and went into the proceedings very confident that they would never take a philosophy professor on the jury. That's just asking for trouble, right?

Turns out the lawyers were not at all concerned about seating a philosophy professor, and I ended up on the jury. Let me serve as a cautionary tale to anyone with a PhD who thinks it might get them excluded from jury duty.

The case was a drunk driver who killed a kid, and the lawyers mostly seemed to be trying to exclude men who coded 'rural' (prosecutor) and women who coded 'mother' (defence). Lucky for me, once the jury was actually picked the defendant didn't like his chances and elected for a judge-only trial.


Posted by: MattD | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:44 AM
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20: That got me curious about the current death rate. Per the CDC, it's down to 190 a day in the most recent weekly average.

While the trend is downward, that figure may be an outlier. The prior week was 254.

So hey, while the jury is still out,* there may be only 70,000 or so deaths this year.

*This comment is on-topic.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:47 AM
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21: I'm not super familiar with the program but checking their website now I see that one of my undergraduate classmates is a professor there now, so that's a definite plus! The program has a good reputation in general, I think. Of their bigger-name professors Keren Rice is the one I'm most familiar with; she's done a lot of work on Athabascan. I think it would be a good fit for someone with interests in syntax and revitalization but probably heavier on the former than the latter.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:53 AM
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23: My new strategy of declaring myself permanently immune is still working.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 10:55 AM
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24: thank you so much! susana bejar is apparently interested in him.


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:00 AM
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23.1: further to that, a bad-normal flu winter in the US (like 2017-18) kills 52,000 people in five months, or about 350 people a day. So get back in that jury room, Murthy.


Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:01 AM
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It seems like I must have told you all about the times I served as a juror, but I can't find it using Google or DuckDuckGo Does anybody remember?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:04 AM
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I've been keeping an eye on this graph from the CDC of the percentage of deaths from pneumonia, flu, and covid. We're getting very close to going back below the pandemic threshold! This happened twice before, once in hot no-covid summer (post-vaccine but pre-Delta) and once right after the giant first Omicron wave but before BA.2.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:05 AM
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That is, we're at 7.6% of all deaths due to PIC (pneumonia, influenza, covid) when the normal amount this time of year would be 6.7% and anything over 7% indicates an epidemic. This measurement isn't perfect though, as there could be some covid-caused deaths that aren't pneumonia that get missed (blood clotting, heart attacks), but still it's pretty good robust data since most covid deaths without a positive test should still end up in the pneumonia category.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:08 AM
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It does look distinctly lower! And since it's weekly totals, less likely to be a fluke. Of course doomers will cry partial-COVID is being coded for less. And it's not impossible but I'm skeptical it has that much effect.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:11 AM
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We've also been down to normal excess deaths since maybe late February.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:15 AM
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Non-excess deaths, even.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:15 AM
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I find it interesting to compare this to historical data. A lot of people die of pneumonia, but it's been going down a lot.

If this year is typical and PIC deaths are up something like 50% from the pre-covid baseline, then that roughly loses 20 years of progress, and means that things now are about as dangerous as 2000. If the downswing we're in is a bit more permanent and we're only up say 25% from the pre-covid baseline then that'd be more like going back in time a decade.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:16 AM
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I tested negative today even though I went unmasked to a concert earlier this week. I didn't want to deprive Natalie Merchant a view of my jawline.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:19 AM
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Of course the big question here was whether Omicron was an unlucky event that won't happen again for decades, or if we get another covid epidemic every few years.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:32 AM
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I still think Omicron was a second pandemic and should have been called covid-21.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:33 AM
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37: No. COVID 2: The Omicron Variation tests better.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 11:42 AM
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Should I still wear a mask on the plane? I haven't flown since August and I can't remember what I did then. Probably wore a mask. It's really never bothered me except when it fogs my glasses.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:03 PM
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39: I wore a mask on the plane when I flew a couple of weeks ago. Maybe one out of 30 people are wearing a mask now? Maybe even less than that.

And still on my walk today along the Scioto Mile there was a woman walking by herself and subsequently sitting in the grass on this beautiful sunny day with no other person within 50 feet of her wearing a mask.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:13 PM
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40.1: Did I mention here already that I still managed to pick up some kind of bug? I'm still kind of sick.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:14 PM
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She probably robbed a convenience store or has a pre-existing condition.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:15 PM
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Dunno what it's like over there, but here community nurses were told they didn't need to bother with masks any more a bit back, and then last week they were told to wear them again, because of an uptick in Covid cases. It isn't going away. I think it'll be like seasonal flu.


Posted by: Chris Y | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:15 PM
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Get well soon, peep.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:16 PM
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The covid poops are basically zero here.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:20 PM
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44: Thanks, Barry!

42: Those are plausible explanations, although I'm not sure if a pre-existing condition is relevant for sitting outside all by yourself. My theory is that some people discovered that they liked having their faced covered when they are out in public.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:26 PM
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45: Try to eat more fiber?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:27 PM
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Even the public health departments of Japan and California have now made masking optional, even in hospitals.

My current comfort level: masks on in airplanes, train cars, health facilities. Elsewhere rarely. But I will return to old precautions in the month before my scheduled trip to Japan, because that was canceled March 2020 and if I have to cancel again I may cause a mischief.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:45 PM
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My understanding is that once they're in the air planes are one of the very few indoor spaces in the US that actually have adequate ventilation. People's instinct is to mask on the plane but not the airport, but my understanding is this is backwards and the airport is much more likely. Of course good ventilation won't help if it's literally the person next to you who has covid, but I think there were several studies that said covid mostly only spread to the people next to or in one of the couple rows ahead of the infected person. So if you're worried I'd say mask during taxiing and when the fasten seatbelt light comes on then take the mask off.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:54 PM
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Er, when the fasten seatbelt sign goes *off*. You know, the ding that says you're now free to move about the country.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:55 PM
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Oh good point. I reflexively masked at the airports a couple weeks ago too. Many more people streaming through!


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:58 PM
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Anyway, I didn't mask in 2000, so I don't see a reason to do so now unless I'm in a medical facility, if someone asks me to, or if I have symptoms.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 12:59 PM
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I agree with what Minivet is saying about precautions before trips, but I'm bitter that this didn't work for me (the one time I got covid was the one week I was taking precautions due to upcoming travel) and so now it's hard to talk myself into doing it.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:06 PM
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40 and 42: hay fever/allergies might be a reason. When I wore one on walks (there was a time when it was mandatory here), I noticed that ragweed and other pollens were less bothersome even without medications.

48: I think it's ridiculous to stop wearing them in healthcare facilities. Like we weren't doing a great job of protecting patients from flu and rsv and parainfluenza before COVID. Why go back to that? If you're immunocompromised and going in to a cancer center to get an infusion, you should feel confident that you won't get infected there.

My current thinking is that a I do wear one on a plane or public transit, because I don't really want the random strangers I'm smushed up against breathing on me, and I wish they would too in that situation. There's nothing to be gained by not wearing one for 20-30 minutes during my commute - only gems I don't want. Going to a restaurant or getting together with friends are fun, and there was a cost to not enjoying meals with people.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:08 PM
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53: My brother pointed out I should avoid crowded places besides just masking in them. Curious if you did that?


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:09 PM
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The service entrance to my office building still has a demotic printed sheet saying "WEAR A MASK", even though the building hasn't required them for months. I wonder how long that associated detritus will stay up.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:11 PM
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54.1: That makes sense, and it looks like it's supported by the science - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8278371/


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:12 PM
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52: you may not have to in medical facilities soon.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:12 PM
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Keep an eye out though, as some medical facilities are choosing to continue to require masking as their internal policy - at least in care areas.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:15 PM
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Though really medical facilities should be improving their ventilation to to the point that it's more beneficial than surgical masks.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:20 PM
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45: Interesting graph here. Basically, the poop/deaths relationship has been flat for ~10 months now. Whereas COVID waves through last spring would feature significant death rates per unit of poop COVID (albeit smaller smaller spikes), small rises in wastewater rates portend small rises in death rates. No more multiplier.

Of course more variants could come, but what's out there just isn't remotely as dangerous as what we experienced over the first 26 months.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:26 PM
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Replace one of those "smaller"s with "progressively"


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:28 PM
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61.last: I really don't think this is about evolution to covid ("what's out there"), it's about immunity levels. So much of the danger is to unvaccinated first-timers, and there just aren't very many of those left.

(It's also probably true that Omicron is less dangerous than Delta, but as far as I can tell there's very little evidence that Omicron is less dangerous than wild-type or alpha. Remember that Delta was noticeably more dangerous than previous strains.)


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:37 PM
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You don't even get many vaccinated first-timers or unvaccinated second-timers these days. The immune system knows the deal now.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:39 PM
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A poll of Unfoggedites on number of times infected would be interesting.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 1:57 PM
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I think RWM and I have only gotten it once (BA.2 wave, almost exactly a year ago). We have each gotten relatively bad colds (at different times!), but didn't test positive so those were probably something else. But when I had covid it took a couple days after symptoms started to test positive, so I'm always a little unclear whether we could have had covid other times and just didn't keep testing long enough. Though for my cold I had a real pcr test, which is presumably better at catching it early on.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 2:04 PM
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60: Ventilation should be better everywhere, but even in a negative pressure room, an HCW is going to wear a mask around a Covid patient. Also, ventilation is more expensive than masks.

65: Never, as far as I know.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 2:05 PM
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Re: the OP, I defer jury duty during the academic year but not during the summer. Both times I showed up the courthouse we were all dismissed to go home within an hour or two.


Posted by: J, Robot | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 2:20 PM
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I served on a jury in, IIRC, 2018, and was told that serving gets me out of having to do it again for three years. Then I got called up a few months later again, for a federal trial, and learned that serving on a state jury can't get you out of federal service. Luckily I wasn't selected, that trial lasted six months.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 2:48 PM
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Pretty sure the one time I caught covid was on a plane, while masked. Planes are well ventilated in the air, but not when you sit at the gate for hours waiting for repairs while the person sitting next to you coughs up a lung.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 2:53 PM
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I've had COVID twice and jury duty once. Both were pretty mild.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 3:00 PM
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56: I said the same shit in demotic AND hieroglyphs AND Greek and how long do you think they kept me up?


Posted by: Opinionated Rosetta Stone | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 3:01 PM
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Fortunately my county has one-day-one-trial, so I've been in once, not chosen. (I think I mentioned the one I was far enough down the list not to be considered for was for an Occupy member's assault on a police officer, which did end up taking months.)

More often I've received a summons, then checked the system the night before and been told not to come in.

We also have the ability to reschedule service, once, to anytime 6 to 12 months in the future without needing a reason. I've used that a couple of times.

Since I moved cities, which is also for most of the pandemic, I don't think I even received a summons. I'm pretty sure I told the DMV of my address change, so they know where to find me.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 3:04 PM
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21

Naomi Nagy is also well known in the field of language documentation and heritage language maintenance. Overall I think it's a pretty respected program.


Posted by: Lurking Linguist | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 3:25 PM
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"I do have a linguist. But you wouldn't know her. She's in Canada. "


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 3:27 PM
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74: One of Superman's lesser-known girlfriends?


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 3:35 PM
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I've had covid once, at the end of January 2022. I haven't been summoned for jury duty in years, and the few time I ever was, I never made it to voir dire. I've stricken prospective jurors for civil cases several times -- there's an art to it, I guess, but you have so little information to go on and such a short time, that it's hard to be confident that you're making the right calls.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 3:45 PM
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Ajay: "bad flu *year*". 52k is the deaths in a bad *year*. That it's distributed across only a few months doesn't really change things, since COVID seems to exhibit no seaonality. Also b/c that was Fauci's criterion: "year", not "season". 52k/yr is 142/day. We're still at *twice* that rate (310/day). But yes, things are getting better, and I look forward to when my local coffeeshop will reopen for indoor service.


Posted by: Chetan Murthy | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 4:41 PM
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One interesting thing about the graph in 29 is what a relatively small proportion of pneumonia+flu deaths are seasonal flu. The baseline pneumonia levels (some of which may be non-seasonal flu, but also a decent chunk is cold-causing coronaviruses, and lots of other diseases) is larger than the seasonal flu swing.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 4:48 PM
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I look forward to when my local coffeeshop will reopen for indoor service.

Are they actually not open, or are you artfully saying you consider it not an option?

Where I am in nearly the heart of the Bay, pretty much all the coffee shops are open, unmasked, and refilling my reusable coffee mugs.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 4:50 PM
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My regular coffee shop finally went back to their old weekday hours, closing at 5 instead of 3. I'm glad because closing at 3 is just too Australian and thus completely un-American. Nature is healing.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 4:52 PM
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thank you, 74!


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 4:57 PM
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I don't even have a coffee shop.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 5:43 PM
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Minivet: my local is open for takeout only: all the indoor tables are stacked in a corner, and it's set up so that you're 6ft away from the workers at all times. The owner has said (1) she hasn't gotten covid, and doesn't intend to, (2) and she'll be damned if she'll reopen her indoor space until it's safe, given that she knows how bad the ventilation is in the building. It's open 530am-2pm daily. I know other coffeeshops are open for indoor service; but since I couldn't drink with a mask on anyway, that's simply out-of-the-question. I fondly remember that first hot no-covid summer (h/t Unfoggedtarian), when were pulling down our masks and thinking "this is over, yay!" Ah, well. I'll believe it's over when the death rates get down to where they're supposed to be, and not until.

P.S. It's the only coffeeshop I frequent, and I tip outrageously, b/c if they're not in business when it's safe to drink indoors, I'll be bummed.


Posted by: Chetan Murthy | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 5:52 PM
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Minivet: this is in Noe Valley, SF. And you're right: everybody else seems to have concluded that covid is "over". Like the owner of that coffeeshop, I haven't gotten covid, and I sure AF don't intend to.


Posted by: Chetan Murthy | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 5:54 PM
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That was the summer my mom died and it was a relief to be able to have the last visits without masks and the kind of funeral she wanted.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 5:56 PM
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As I said above, I predict it will take 10-20 years for death rates to get "back to what they're supposed to be." Just from general medical advances, not from anything covid-specific. An extra major disease is just going to mean more death.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 5:59 PM
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It's been a full century since the initial pandemic and people still die of H1N1!


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 6:06 PM
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Not fashionable people.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 6:46 PM
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We'll probably get a few more pandemics in the next 10-20 years too. Hard to predict the effect that might have on death rates but it's unlikely to be good.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 6:47 PM
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I've been summoned and deferred to a particularly bad week, so I will defer again. But once that's done, I'd be happy to sit on a jury. My work is particularly boring right now and we get full pay during jury duty. It'd make for an interesting change.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 6:48 PM
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90: Absolutely. I'm increasingly nervous about bird flu. It's truly been devastating to seabirds and recently to seals as well. It's still looking like it won't jump to humans in the foreseeable future, but it's just so deadly. I think my worry level about bird flu passed covid in the past month or two.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 6:56 PM
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I got Covid last July and given my habits at the time it was probably from waiting in line in bank that had such poor ventilation it was noticeably stuffy. I was wearing a mask but many people weren't, and there were people in line plus one of the tellers who had coughs. Earlier in the pandemic, I would have simply walked out after seeing the line and come back at another time. Probably I should have done that.

There's an outside chance I could have gotten sick elsewhere but everything other possible source was less probable: infected outdoors while hiking, unusually long or short time between infection and testing positive, infected at work one week earlier from someone who never reported to contact tracing.

Anyway, there are no guarantees that precautions will pay off but I still take most of them. I'm about to leave for a two-week trip where the second week is vacation and I'm going to do what I can to not put the vacation part at risk. Which might just mean wearing a mask. I probably won't mask on vacation, which will be mostly rural areas with low rates of Covid and high rates of treason.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:07 PM
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65: Got it once, last October after a trip to Europe (and about a month after bivalent vaccination). I spent several days meeting unmasked with about a dozen colleagues, then took a cab to the airport with an old, quite frail colleague. I started to feel symptoms on the plane, and when I got home, my wife told me, quite ridiculously, that she thought I sounded hoarse and might have covid.

I told her it was obviously just allergies. The next day I felt worse, tested positive, and informed my colleagues. Nobody else got it. Given the incubation period, I am mystified, but I was really grateful that my frail old colleague wasn't infected.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:16 PM
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I'm not a hundred percent sure on this, but I've seen a number of credible people speculate that the timing of symptoms relative to contagiousness is changed dramatically by vaccination. That is, an immunologically naive person has their peak contagiousness several days before symptoms come in, but someone vaccinated may have an immune system that reacts much faster, and so the symptoms come before the peak contagiousness. Usually this comes up in discussions about how it's common for people to show symptoms but not test positive on rapid for several days. The obvious symptoms (which are mostly caused by your immune response not by the virus!) just start earlier in the infection process if you're vaccinated.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:21 PM
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Everyone is watching the birds but I think the real threat is the ground hog under my neighbor's deck. I used to think that was harmless, but it's clearly eating my siding. I'm wouldn't put spreading disease past it.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:26 PM
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Or maybe pandemics only come every 100 years or so. We could be set until the 2120s.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 7:41 PM
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We're going to have measles around again, because being fucked in the head is now a social identity.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 8:03 PM
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There does actually seem to be a long-term pattern of alternation on a scale of approximately 100 years between periods of lots of pandemics and periods of few. We may be entering a pandemic-heavy phase like the 19th century as opposed to the 20th.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 8:12 PM
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That's not the main reason to think we've got some more pandemics coming, of course. But it's an interesting pattern.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-20-23 8:26 PM
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95: I think Michael Mina said that. Who else were you thinking of?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 1:31 AM
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I don't know if I've had Covid 3 or 4 times. If you put a gun to my head, I'd guess four, but it could only be two.

I've tested unambiguously positive twice. The first time I'm pretty sure I had it was before they started testing: I was commuting daily through central London when the first initial wave hit in March of 2020 and I got sick with a bad cold/flu type illness and then had respiratory symptoms for several months after but there was no way at the time to confirm or not. I've also had it a another time when I was in the USA and everyone I travelled with for work got COVID (clear test results) and I got sick but didn't really clearly test positive (one faint positive test on an LFT). In that case, I was masked up on the plane and in every shared social setting (it was a requirement of the conference event).

Only the first one was worse than a regular common cold, though.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 2:26 AM
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There does actually seem to be a long-term pattern of alternation on a scale of approximately 100 years between periods of lots of pandemics and periods of few.

I really would like to see the numbers on this, because I think the data set here is way too small to make rigorous conclusions. There is also no plausible mechanism I can think of for such a long-cycle alternation, and the population structure has changed so radically over the last 200 years that anything before that is probably irrelevant.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 3:42 AM
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As far as I know, I never had Covid. I was very sick in February 2020, and tested negative for the flu, so that has prompted speculation. Since covid tests have been around, all my results were negative .


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 3:57 AM
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I got covid while I was supposed to be on jury duty. They made me come in, masked, after 5 days but didn't put me on a jury.


Posted by: Sand | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 4:11 AM
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I had covid once for sure in the early summer of 2022. Thank goodness for vaccines because it came on really fast and alarmingly -- like, going to bed feeling normal and waking up at 2:30am thinking maybe you have fluid in your lungs alarmingly -- and then the well-taught immune system kicked in. Over the course of the pandemic I've also had two longish lung ailments that stubbornly refused to test positive as covid.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 4:43 AM
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Healthy people under about 70 who are fully vaccinated and still taking elaborate precautions to avoid COVID-19 are really quite puzzling to me. If you get it, it'll at worst probably keep you off work for a couple of days with a bad cough. Were you this careful to avoid indoor dining or jury duty during the bad flu winters of 2014-2015 or 2008-9?

In the last 12 months we've lost 33,538 people to COVID-19 in the UK. A normal flu year is 25-30,000 deaths from flu or pneumonia.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 4:51 AM
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I had COVID in summer 2021, while partly vaccinated - I slept a lot and felt very low-energy for about ten days. My mother (in her 70s, fully vaccinated and boosted) just had her third bout and it felt like a bad cold for a couple of days.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 4:53 AM
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If I'm allowed, I can pretty easily sleep ten hours a day. I'm just never able to do that unless I'm sick.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 6:13 AM
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I stayed careful about Covid for a long time, although I've sort of given up now, out of a sense of civic virtue. I'm healthy and not old, but if I get Covid, I can spread it to someone who isn't.

I still probably haven't had it, although I had something this winter that knocked me flat for a couple of days, and slowed me down for a surprisingly long time afterwards. But I tested repeatedly throughout and nothing ever showed up.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 6:18 AM
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That 2008-2009 flu was no joke, wish I could go back and take precautions on that one. So much worse than (vaccinated) covid!

I'm mostly just confused about what people thought "the pandemic is over" would look like other than more-or-less the current situation.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 6:49 AM
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I've been over this misimpression for a couple of years now, but I was expecting the vaccine to work like measles, not like flu -- vaccinated people don't get or spread the disease except under unusual, fluky circumstances. So it would have been a disease purely of the unvaccinated. Nope.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 6:54 AM
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Re: juries, 69 happened to Cassandane. She didn't get selected for the second jury, which she was ambivalent about because it was a January 6 case. I've only got a jury duty notice in the mail once about five years ago and only had to call in, wasn't asked to show up in person. No idea why.

Re: covid, I, Cassandane, and Atossa have all managed to avoid it as far as I can tell. No idea why or how. I carry a mask with me out of habit but haven't been asked or felt the need to put it on in a while.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:00 AM
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I was expecting that after I was vaccinated, Bill Gates would control me.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:01 AM
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107: my kid is ridiculously healthy & still wears a mask on public transit & in crowded indoor spaces (as do the better half & i) & as he lives with an asthmatic & someone with chronic kidney disease i'm v glad he's willing to continue these simple, sensible precautions. maybe the people you see out & about wearing a mask are in a similar boat. it really isn't a big deal & i find it odd that other people even have opinions about it, it's like being irked that some people brush their teeth in the office bathroom after eating their lunch. you may not but who cares if they do?

the kid still got it, when he was in his first dance performance since march 2020 & chose to by ditch the mask the weekend of the performances (which was fine my god he's been so diligently careful for years!). turns out that spending long days indoors, unmasked, in untested crowds of heavy breathing dancers can get you a rather large dose of respiratory virus, bc despite being fully vaccinated he was pretty miserable for about 7 straight days - this was not like a bad head cold. he stayed in his room, was well masked when he used the toilet, we had air filters both in his room & the rest of the house & kept windows open as much as possible, & i wore a mask when delivering him food - & the better half & i didn't get it.

the better half & i recently got a non covid but still nasty upper respiratory bug, likely from eating right next to a large open window/wall but at crowded restaurant. it was as close as possible to being outdoors, & yet ... & two weeks after the virus being basically resolved i'm still on an inhaler, had to take a course of oral steroids & still my lungs are creaky as fuck. it was just rum luck. but a great meal with friends is worth some amount of risk ( will hold out for actual outdoor table next time) vs - a bus ride? airport & plane*? concert or movie? i can do all those masked no problem.

* once plane is in the air & at altitude i take of mask to drink or eat on long flights bc as i understand it the air filters are pretty good then.


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:12 AM
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The only time I recall getting jury duty notices was when I was living in Queens and going to library school and working a library job at NYPL for very little pay but absolutely essential experience for getting my next 2 jobs overseas. I was a bad citizen and ignored them but replied to one of the last ones and told them that I was moving out of the country. Sorry all civic-minded commentators. I'd just dug myself out of a big hole life-wise and had no time or energy for it at the time.

Re: Covid, I'm now in my late-50s, have asthma, and am carrying more weight than I should. I'm fully boosted but given all that it's likely that it will be a very rough ride if I get it. So I'm cautious but I do go out and about and dine at restaurants, drink at pubs with friends, etc., but I keep an eye on things and when we had the Delta and then the Omicron spike as soon as case numbers looked like they were about to skyrocket I stayed in. In one of those cases one of our pub group had it and gave it to a couple of my friends. Glad I stayed in. My last booster was over a year ago now and it's become inconvenient to get it here now, though they made it very easy even a year ago. I'm thinking of waiting till I go back to the US in June to get my next one since they never made the bivalent ones available here.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:13 AM
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I'm more or less with Ajay in 107, with the additional: don't you find there to be a cost associated with continued vigilance?

I will say that I'm much more careful of the health of others post-Covid than pre-Covid. If I have a cold, I'll wear a mask for the day, or stay home. So my baseline of altruistic avoiding-spread has definitely improved.

On the other hand, I have a deep belief now that we've chronically underestimated the amount of asymptomatic spreaders in general. So I believe I've probably spread the flu and all sorts of colds, due to not realizing I was contagious.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:15 AM
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Covid is also a convenient excuse for myself flying business class to the US instead of economy. But I also have the recent knee surgery excuse too. I can't imagine flying domestic in the US now.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:15 AM
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114 He is, but it turns out he's not very imaginative in what he wants you to do.

I gave in to covid precaution fatigue fairly early on: I wear a mask when required, which in Montana has been almost never once people elected in 2020 took office, but not otherwise. My lifestyle doesn't bring me into much contact with vulnerable people. I got it last year skiing in Austria; the first people in my group to test positive had taken a day off skiing to go shopping in Innsbruck, and that's my supposition for how it got to me. I didn't test positive until a couple of days later, while in Germany -- it was pretty inconvenient, but having had all the shots up to then, it was a couple days of a bad cold.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:18 AM
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And I do use MS DOS sometimes even now.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:25 AM
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Still covid free here, even with a high-schooler in the house.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:34 AM
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The reason I never thought 112 was likely was just by looking at other human coronaviruses like OC43. Longterm full immunity just isn't common for cold-like infections.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:36 AM
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I still don't know how we didn't catch covid when our son did. We did nothing protective after the positive test because we figured we were already infected. But nothing, not even s sniffle.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 7:36 AM
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2nd 103.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 9:48 AM
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Healthy people under about 70 who are fully vaccinated and still taking elaborate precautions to avoid COVID-19 are really quite puzzling to me.

I arguably fall into that category (depending on your threshold for "elaborate" -- I mask in most indoor public settings).

It's a combination of my partner having an old friend who has life-altering long covid (had to move because she could no longer go up the stairs at her old place), and the fact that we're both introverted enough and boring enough that there hasn't been that much motivation to change (our last plane trip was 2018; it's possible that we haven't stayed at a hotel or airbnb since 2019). It feels more cautious than absolutely necessary, but also not that much effort.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 9:54 AM
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Yeah. I'm very doubtful of any cyclical. I'm guessing other pandemics are likely just because humans are messing around in so many ecosystems, moving themselves and animals around, and generally just upping the number of chances for anything to evolve or spread.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 9:54 AM
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126 to 124 & 103.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 9:55 AM
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I get summoned all the time here (about once a year) and every time I get dismissed immediately after saying I'd need captions or an interpreter. I do not feel great about this.


Posted by: E. Messily | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 10:03 AM
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If you do get chosen, ask for the interpreter Rihanna used.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 10:07 AM
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If you get to pick.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 10:10 AM
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128 raises an interesting point: would it be illegal to make an explicit rule that no Deaf people will be called for jury service?

If jury service was a paid job or a service then yes, no question, it's illegal. But it isn't - it's a civic duty that most people (vide supra) regard as a rather unpleasant imposition.

If a political pollster had a policy of never including Deaf people in its samples, well, if they're willing to take the risk that their polls will be skewed, that's fine, legally. And a Deaf party to a case might be able to argue that such a rule was unfair to them just as a black party could argue that an all-white jury wouldn't be fair to them. But that's a harm to the party, not to the excluded potential jurors.

It feels desirable that Deaf people should be able to serve on juries just like everyone else (with captions or whatever), but that isn't the same as it being illegal for them not to.

Lawyers: thoughts?


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 10:15 AM
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This is off the cuff, but I wouldn't expect that argument to be successful in a suit under the ADA. Even if it can reasonably described as a duty and an imposition, it's also a component of full participation in civic society, which is a benefit.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 10:22 AM
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I hadn't even realized Rihanna served on a jury.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 10:30 AM
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125: We have friends behaving basically like you, likewise because they're long-covid-adjacent. Seen then at least four times since 2020, but every time was masked, outdoors, or both, including at their wedding.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 11:08 AM
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A couple of times in my life I've had a bad cough that lasted for a month, maybe longer. I would definitely have taken precautions to try to avoid that had I been thinking it through. After the second one, in 2008, I got into the habit of washing my hands after arriving at work and then after coming home. I get sick much less often now than I used to.

My Covid experience was odd in that I didn't get a cough, barely sneezed, didn't have much fever, didn't have trouble breathing in terms of struggling to breathe, but did feel like my lung capacity had decreased to the extent that I couldn't speak for normal lengths of time and had to take it easy when out walking for over a month. No other respiratory illness has been like that for me, even lingering coughs have coincided with otherwise feeling fine by the last week or so.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 11:13 AM
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I really would like to see the numbers on this, because I think the data set here is way too small to make rigorous conclusions. There is also no plausible mechanism I can think of for such a long-cycle alternation, and the population structure has changed so radically over the last 200 years that anything before that is probably irrelevant.

Well, the concept of "pandemic" is fuzzy enough that any sort of truly rigorous analysis is probably impossible, and between that and the sample size issue I can't actually demonstrate this quantitatively and I'm sure the 100-year periodicity specifically is a fluke of recent history. That said, I think there is a real phenomenon underlying the apparent periodicity: technological change leads to improved transportation connections, which leads to the spread of pathogens into new areas where they cause havoc for a few decades or so until tamed by some combination of natural immunity, public health policy, and medical innovation. Then that situation holds for a few more decades until something changes and the cycle starts again.

The 100-year cycle itself starts around 1720 with the end of the Second Plague Pandemic (at least in western Europe), possibly due in part to effective quarantine regulations, and the spread of smallpox inoculation. There's then a period of relatively few pandemics until cholera breaks out of India in 1817. The nineteenth century sees a long period of recurrent cholera pandemics along with occasional pandemics of other diseases throughout the Western/colonized world, with the 1918 flu being the culmination. Then you have huge medical advances that keep the world relatively pandemic-free for the rest of the twentieth century; smallpox is eradicated and flu and cholera pandemics do occur but are of reduced extent and virulence. Then COVID in 2019.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 11:14 AM
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You can extend the pattern backwards as well but the phases get fuzzier and more irregular (which is why I don't actually think the 100-year periodicity in recent cycles is meaningful). The phase ending in the 1720s plausibly starts in the 1490s with the Columbian Exchange and the mysterious emergence of typhus shortly before. Before that there's a brief period of relative calm after the initial waves of the Black Death in the fourteenth century. Before that there's an apparent period of at least relative calm for a couple hundred years or so but at this point the gaps in the documentation get so big that it's hazardous to conclude anything. There is apparently some recent evidence for a plague outbreak in the Middle East in the eleventh century which is interesting but I haven't looked closely at it yet.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 11:31 AM
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I am sceptical about an analysis which sees COVID as a great epochal moment in world disease but ignores the far more deadly HIV pandemic because it falls in a century which is supposed to be "relatively pandemic-free"!



Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:08 PM
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I'm also skeptical of any meaningful periodicity as such, but it's certainly true that we lost a bunch of the old wisdom in building design from the the late 19th century. NYC used to require open internal windows to cut down on TB transmission, and now we've built a bunch of buildings that don't even have external windows! It's very easy to imagine we're couple more pandemics away from taking air circulation seriously or making serious changes to factory farming practices or China banning wet markets, and with some of those interventions you could enter a lower-pandemic phase again.

The theory here I guess is just that people who haven't lived through a pandemic are blissfully naive and make poor decisions, but that it takes some time for those decisions to lead to pandemics.

One complicating factor here is that we've had loads of awful non-human pandemics for the past few decades, right? Dutch Elm Disease, White Nose Syndrome, Chytridiomycosis, Bird Flu, etc.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:10 PM
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and now we've built a bunch of buildings that don't even have external windows

Residential buildings? I think each apartment does require a window to open air in the building code, although not one window per bedroom.

(I believe NY's first Tenement Act required windows w/ natural light, but builders started to meet it technically with tiny interior shafts that would fill up with garbage.)


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:14 PM
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I am sceptical about an analysis which sees COVID as a great epochal moment in world disease but ignores the far more deadly HIV pandemic because it falls in a century which is supposed to be "relatively pandemic-free"!

Well, it's far too early to tell in either case, but I have a suspicion COVID will end up having greater societal ramifications than HIV in the long term. But I'm fine with dating the new pandemic phase from 1980 or whatever if in a couple hundred years the story looks different.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:15 PM
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To be clear, if the argument is "improved travel increases pandemic risk", I am 100% behind it. It's the periodicity that I don't buy.


Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:16 PM
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The theory here I guess is just that people who haven't lived through a pandemic are blissfully naive and make poor decisions, but that it takes some time for those decisions to lead to pandemics.

That's part of it, yeah, but larger technological and economic trends matter a lot too. But they interact in complicated ways. The repeal of quarantine regulations in the early nineteenth century was a factor in the spread of cholera, for example.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:18 PM
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The periodicity argument reminds me that we are well overdue for the next great horse steppe nomad invasion.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:21 PM
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To be clear, if the argument is "improved travel increases pandemic risk", I am 100% behind it. It's the periodicity that I don't buy.

That's a part of the argument, which I think we can all agree is trivially true. The rest of it is that both the emergence and spread of pandemics and the societal response to them are complex systems that interact in ways that tend to result in periodic shifts in the prevalence and virulence of pandemics. The periodicity itself is epiphenomenal, though, and again, I'm not claiming that the period of 100 years specifically is actually meaningful.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:24 PM
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144: Not likely until a pandemic depopulates the sedentary people a bit.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:28 PM
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The periodicity argument reminds me that we are well overdue for the next great horse steppe nomad invasion.

Probably carrying plague. Fourth pandemic, here we come!


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:28 PM
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131: The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that a white defendant also challenge the exclusion of black jurors from the pool. Powers v. Ohio, 1991--might be a different result today). If I were a white defendant arguing that a white police officer was lying, I'd avoid an all white jury. If my defense was that I didn't see or understand something said to me, e.g. "you are trespassing," or "firearms not allowed in this store," I'd want the hearing impaired to be fully represented. Pretty sure that either an excluded juror or a convicted defenant could successfully challenge the policy.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:28 PM
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we are well overdue for the next great horse steppe nomad invasion

I am always on alert.


Posted by: Megan | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:33 PM
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Did you all see the study that came out about a month ago indicating that serious long COVID seems to have been primarily a feature of early strains? I should have saved the link, but I was interested enough to actually read the article, not just trust the summary thread. Basically, long COVID symptoms can't be tested for, but you can test whether someone has actually had COVID. So some fraction of people who go to the doctor for long COVID have never, in fact, been infected with COVID: they're just experiencing fatigue, brain fog, or whatever because of something else.

In the first year of COVID, long COVID was overwhelmingly correlated with COVID infections. I can't recall whether that held with Delta, but by Omicron, the correlation dropped to zero: there was literally no difference between the number of COVID-free people with long COVID symptoms and COVID-infected people with long COVID symptoms. I want to say this was a European study, and the n was quite large--this wasn't one of those "we looked at 100 cases and found..." deals.

I don't recall if it was the same study, but there's also tons of evidence that severe long COVID was also a feature of Delta and before, and that to the extent long COVID is still a thing, it's mostly feeling tired a month after infection, and then fine 2 months after.

None of this is to say that nobody experiences this, and everyone's free to set their own risk threshold. But the breathless claims that huge fractions of the populace would become permanently disabled by long COVID were simply wrong, and the odds of experiencing any long COVID symptoms are massively lower than they were 12, 24, or 36 months ago.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:34 PM
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The periodicity argument reminds me that we are well overdue for the next great horse steppe nomad invasion.

And a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake*.

* I hadn't realized that there was recent news which generated some scary headlines but appears to not change the assessed risk (so far).


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:35 PM
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In the first year of COVID, long COVID was overwhelmingly correlated with COVID infections. I can't recall whether that held with Delta, but by Omicron, the correlation dropped to zero: there was literally no difference between the number of COVID-free people with long COVID symptoms and COVID-infected people with long COVID symptoms.

I want to believe that, but I have not seen a study that convincingly establishes that -- just back and forth studies that show different things depending on how they measure long covid symptoms, but maybe you're talking about the study discussed here: https://www.vox.com/science/23620146/long-covid-research-study-inspire-bias


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:37 PM
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49, UPEGTI: My understanding is that once they're in the air planes are one of the very few indoor spaces in the US that actually have adequate ventilation
I thought so too! But then I bought a CO2 meter and brought it with me on a recent plane flight.

Outdoors, reads around 400ppm, just like it ought to.
At boarding time the readings ramped up, with lots of people and little ventilation, up to 1600ppm.
After takeoff it declined a bit, but never below 1200ppm, which is also not good and is a sign of inadequate ventilation.

So I think our original plan, of staying masked from when we got in a cab to go to the airport, until we were in a rental car with the windows down at the other end of the trip six hours later, was still the right one.


Posted by: Nathan Williams | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:38 PM
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As for my personal experience, I got infected once, last summer. Iris got it from my sister's GF while visiting in Boulder, brought it back to us (unwitting), then we went to New Orleans (having tested negative, masked on plane) and stayed in an almost-windowless apartment with my sister and father. Incredibly, my dad never got it--we took precautions, but again, windowless apartment.

Anyway, the only effect for me was feeling listless for one day, with mild cold-type symptoms. By day 2, I don't even think my nose was runny.

In November I thought I had it--I felt as tired as I have in my entire life, zero appetite--but I never tested positive and nobody else got it, including the 40 people who had been at my house for my 50th bday party a few nights earlier. I don't think it's plausible that it failed to pass to anyone else, and I think it's far more likely that I just wore myself out (day after the party my sister and I went to a Steelers game and were out in the cold for like 8 hours) and reacted badly to an ordinary cold/flu.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:42 PM
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152: Almost certainly not that study. None of those details really match up with what I remember.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:48 PM
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It's always tricky when reading about "long covid" to figure out what "long" means. A lot of the studies are about what I'd think of as "medium covid," that is whether you're experiencing symptoms a month or so after infection. Like in 135 I had a pretty mild covid infection but had more lingering lung damage than's happened to me with colds and flues. But that was only for the first month and then it totally cleared up. Is that long covid? At any rate it's not the kind of long covid that people are scared of.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 12:58 PM
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153: I'm pretty sure that just measuring CO2 levels with no adjustment isn't going to be measuring air circulation on airplanes, because there's lots of weird stuff about the air on airplanes. In particular, the outside air at 20k feet has less than half the oxygen as at sea level, so you're not just going to pump in new air. I tried looking a little for a more detailed discussion of this and the main thing I found was:

https://www.boeing.com/confident-travel/downloads/Carbon-Dioxide-Concentrations-on-Airplanes.pdf

Of course, that's from Boeing so maybe I don't trust them, but at any rate I don't think CO2 levels tells you much about covid safety in planes either way.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 1:05 PM
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On long covid, pretty much all the studies I've seen say that due to some combination of increased immunity and differences with Omicron, long covid is significantly less common, less severe, and less "long" than early in the pandemic. But exactly how much of a risk it still is (and how that risks compares to "long" versions of other common infections) is much trickier to work out.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 1:08 PM
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For movies, they usually use a prosthetic covid.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 1:13 PM
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137: "Mysterious emergence of Typhus" sure sent me down a weird rabbit hole. Apparently the leading theory on the Plague of Athens in 430BC is that it was Typhus, but the more crackpot-y theory is that it was Ebola!


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 1:14 PM
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120: I have to use vi sometimes if I'm editing certain things in git bash. I feel like punch cards would be the logical next step, or possibly cuneiform. Punch cards I at least saw in use in their natural habitat.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 1:23 PM
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160: It gets even weirder! I don't know if the typhus theory is still the most widely held about the Plague of Athens; its popularity dates from a time when scholars sort of implicitly assumed it must be one of the three or four diseases most similar and virulent known from modern times, which is actually unlikely to be the case since we now know diseases change so much over time. There is DNA evidence that it may have been typhoid (a completely different disease!), but the study that proposed that was done early in the development of ancient DNA techniques and concerns were raised about contamination by bacteria in the soil. I don't know if that was ever resolved.

Typhus proper is first definitely recorded in the 1490s, but the first attestation is very clearly before 1492 so it doesn't appear to have been introduced from the New World (although it has been endemic in some parts of it in modern times). Its actual source and earlier history is still very mysterious.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 1:51 PM
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I blame an usually good group of Aztec sailors.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 2:02 PM
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Obviously came from the slightly earlier Portuguese trips to the Americas...


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 2:04 PM
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Like in Mystic Pizza?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 2:51 PM
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Apparently mitochondria are pretty closely related to typhus!?


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 3:00 PM
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"the outside air at 20k feet has less than half the oxygen as at sea level, so you're not just going to pump in new air"

The air at 20k feet (or even 35k feet where airliners fly) has exactly as much oxygen as at sea level! It's just at lower pressure. If you pump it in at high pressure you'll be fine.


Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 3:12 PM
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Huh, interesting. You're right!


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 3:18 PM
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It is nonetheless true that the air is only half brought in from outside and half filtered internal air, even though they could fully replace it if they really wanted to. So if you believe that the filters are effective against covid then the CO2 levels are not representative of the covid levels.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 3:21 PM
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It is illegal! There have been a number of decisions on lawsuits. The rules are different for different courts- some require English only, and captions/cued speech/signed English instead of ASL.

The ASL performers for the Super Bowl were both deaf and also don't live in Missoula so that's not on the table unfortunately


Posted by: E. Messily | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 4:52 PM
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You just pay for travel and get an interpreter for them.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 4:54 PM
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144: Never any recognition.


Posted by: Opinionated Hemedti | Link to this comment | 04-21-23 9:33 PM
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172 I'm not sure technicals count


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 1:20 AM
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They count.


Posted by: Opinionated Dead Libyan Soldiers | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 2:33 AM
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... the next great horse steppe nomad invasion


Posted by: Chris Y | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 3:13 AM
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... the next great horse steppe nomad invasion

Started a couple of years ago. The Ukrainians are doing a good job holding the front line for now.


Posted by: Chris Y | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 3:15 AM
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And soon they will advance


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 3:43 AM
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...neither great nor horseborne nor steppe nor nomadic.


Posted by: Opinionated Voltaire | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 5:19 AM
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Well, it is steppe.


Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 6:41 AM
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Hmph, and in another forum someone I know just told us that their teenager tested positive for COVID and they are proceeding with their vacation plans on an airplane anyway. "Him with an N95 is probably no more risky to the rest of the plane than all of the didn't-test-didn't-know passengers". I don't know if I think that's right or not, but viscerally I do not like it.


Posted by: Nathan Williams | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 9:13 AM
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Pfft. Whole fucking country's a swamp.


Posted by: Opinionated Hemedti | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 9:41 AM
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180: I don't like it either, but I don't know what individuals are supposed to do without more support.

A doctor I know went on vacation to Disney World with his family, including his adult, somewhat disabled son. The son refused to mask at the airport and tested positive on the trip. He isolated in his part of the time-share's suite and did some stuff by the pool.

I think the isolation period was longer than the length of their vacation. His wife was uncomfortable with their son flying back however many days later, but the doctor had him wear an N95, because they couldn't switch the plane tickets easily, and more importantly, he didn't have anywhere to stay.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 10:57 AM
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So I read comments about how it's puzzling and costly to continue taking precautions if you're healthy and vaccinated and think "exactly, really curious to see what people will say;" I read 115 and think "I mean, that doesn't seem actually eccentric but it is certainly at one far end of the spectrum;" and then I remember that I also always wear masks indoors, on public transit and planes, at concerts, and sometimes at restaurants before the food shows up, but I am basically unaware because it's just so normal now. (The amount of socially normalized outdoor masking in Japan made me rebel, however. Even if cherry blossoms are scentless, I enjoy breathing fresh air in wooded parks. It's a deep human need.)

I don't think there will be a point at which any large number of holdouts agree that it's safe to stop masking. It will never be 100% safe. Some people will basically do it forever with a bit of attrition depending on season, because it's now just a normal, easy way to avoid giving/receiving respiratory viruses. Some people will get sick of it one day and straightforwardly quit. Some will try to be quantitative about timing and probably dither a lot. I'm largely waiting for Oakland to give me a fucking break, currently scheduled for July 1.


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 7:52 PM
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I don't think I ever got to the point where masking felt normal. Pre-vaccination I just didn't share indoor spaces with people outside of very brief shopping situations, and post-vaccination I followed whatever the rules were which meant a few months of masking in public except when lecturing or eating or drinking. But mostly I was only in public when lecturing eating or drinking.

In particular I never learned how to not feel panic-y in an N95 or to not have my ears hurt terribly when masking more than an hour.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 8:01 PM
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Speaking of ear pain, does anybody else have dents in their skull where the ear pieces of their glasses hit?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 8:19 PM
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Anyway, masks mean you don't have to brush your teeth or shave, so they save time.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 8:24 PM
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Anyway other people masking doesn't affect me at all, any more than other people wearing a hat or a hijab or whatever other additional clothing they want.

But I still have colleagues who won't go to in-person faculty meetings and want colloquium to be in a 300-person room so it can be socially distanced. And that's just crazy-making and I don't want to do that stuff forever!


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 8:46 PM
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If people wear a hat and it looks like a hat I thought of buying and the hat doesn't look right, I don't buy that hat. This causes problems as I get balder.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-22-23 9:05 PM
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The shift to faculty meetings always being over Zoom is one of the best things to come out of the pandemic. I don't think we're ever going back to in-person faculty meetings. It's great, you can just do other things when someone is ranting at length about how things operated back in 1963 or whatever, and then vote on what you need to.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 5:36 AM
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Our current faculty chair somehow mandated that all meetings be attended in-person if you teach in person at the main campus. The claim is that it's too hard to manage the zoom link with two modalities. There's no way that's a tenable position in the long run, but it is true that I do participate better when someone makes me attend. I'm happy to ditch that benefit, though.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 6:09 AM
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We have mostly in person faculty meetings but then some people insist on a hybrid option and it's just the worst of all worlds.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 6:52 AM
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Apparently, in the 80s the Poli Sci department at Ohio State couldn't have faculty meeting because they hated each other. So that's always a way out.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 7:19 AM
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Our faculty meetings are on Zoom, and I don't think we're ever going back. College Faculty Senate meetings are also on Zoom, and I pray that never goes away either.


Posted by: J, Robot | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 11:26 AM
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The Faculty Senate will no longer be of any concern to us. I've just received word that the Emperor has dissolved the council permanently.


Posted by: Opinionated Chancellor Tarkin | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 12:32 PM
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Too real.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 1:52 PM
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192: we have the hating each other part down, but it doesn't seem to reduce the frequency of meetings. Must be doing it wrong.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 2:11 PM
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Our Faculty Senate turned into a rubber stamp body over Zoom, which resulted in shorter meetings but also many problems given that the administration is actively malevolent.

I don't know what to think about COVID. I've had it twice. In October it felt like the flu, and I had a bad 24 hours followed by two weeks of very foggy brain (mixing up words in class, couldn't concentrate at all.) Two weeks after a booster shot, so just rotten luck. In March, I felt fine -no fever, no aches -- apart from the rib-cracking cough and resulting mild pleurisy. Both times it messed with my heart rate, basically taking ten beats off of my maximum heart rate and easy cycling workouts made me redline, but I don't think it's the kind of thing I'd notice without my watch tracking my heart rate or caring about cycling. A month out and things seem to be getting back to normal, but if I get a bad night's sleep I'm completely useless instead of mostly functional. It's close to the exhaustion I felt six weeks out from childbirth.

Pebbles was second-hardest hit by COVID, and then she's bounced from respiratory infection to respiratory infection this winter, so I don't know whether she's got a very mild version of long COVID or just bad kid virus luck, but she's been more tired and slower to bounce back. If this were an old novel we'd be off to convalesce by the seashore this summer.

"Long COVID" seems to cover way too much. A lingering cough that resolves after a month is not fun, but it's also well within the normal range of 'viruses are sometimes assholes.' Not helpful to lump that in with life-laltering effects. I don't mind masking much, but I haven't regularly worn masks since omicron slowed down. Planes/airports, yes; teaching, no; with active cold symptoms, yes; when someone else requests it, yes. But Utah basically never masked, and at some point post vaccine I realized that I likely wasn't helping by masking.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 2:37 PM
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Don't tell the LDS, but it turns out that if you drink enough of both coffee and Jameson, does not have to be taken at the same time, you're safe from Covid.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-23-23 4:24 PM
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My position on masking, etc is more or less exactly like Heebie in 117 (and Cala in 197, too).

I'm very conscious when I have a cold or other potential respiratory virus that I take precautions to avoid spreading it to others. I will wear a mask, stay home, avoid social situations indoors, etc in a way that I wouldn't have done pre-covid. I observe mask mandates in places that ask for them (although that's rare now).


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 2:08 AM
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I do have a couple of friends, one in particular, who had quite severe long Covid. One with lingering neurological symptoms that floored him for about a year. That was definitely the first strain, though. He works in social care and was at the sharp end of one of the London council's response to Covid in the first wave, so he got it really early and was exposed a lot.

I was out of breath often, and had worse than usual heart palpitations, for about 3 or 4 months after the first time I had it. Other times, I've had worse colds.

In 2005 (might have been 2006, can't remember) my wife and I both got some kind of flu virus that left us using asthma inhalers for about 6 months. It was severe. Even OG Covid wasn't that bad for me.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 2:14 AM
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I've been working remotely and generally keeping up on masking because I don't find it a huge burden and I see my 80+ year old parents often. But this week I'm at the workplace where basically no one ever masks.

There's a point where you're indoors with others so long that masking doesn't help much. Maybe I'll just stay by open windows. Lots of other remote co-workers are coming by plane and that worries me more than just being indoors.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 6:19 AM
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If they have tickets on Southwest, they might never leave the ground.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 6:52 AM
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I was feeling tired for a month to six weeks after I had the covid back around Thanksgiving. Its also possible that I am dumber now than I was before.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:06 AM
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I'm very conscious when I have a cold or other potential respiratory virus that I take precautions to avoid spreading it to others.

I'd probably be the same - haven't had a cold yet since COVID though.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:08 AM
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||

Bombshell: Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News, and won't even get to do a final show.

|>


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:29 AM
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And now I hear my boss, who is not remote, is home taking care of a kid with Covid. I'll be pretty angry if this trip leads me to cancel my vacation scheduled for next week.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:32 AM
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Wow, that's even better than Susan Rice being out at the White House.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:32 AM
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207 is not to 206


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:33 AM
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Fox gets a first-round pick in the next White Nationalist draft though. They'll be back.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:35 AM
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Can you spell "chilling effect"?


Posted by: Opinionated Dominion | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:35 AM
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"Chilling affect" is as close as I get.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:37 AM
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Maybe Wendy Bell can hire him?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:40 AM
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Presumably he's under a pretty brutal noncompete.


Posted by: Opinionated Dominion | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:42 AM
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I suspect more than just Dominion involved given how abrupt this was. Maybe the lawsuit from his one producer contributed. Bartiromo,Pirro, and Dobbs were actually bigger pushers and seemingly more dispensable. (although Dobbs may already be gone).


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:43 AM
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Whoa, 205 is way more fun than a depressing Ralph Yarl thread. Do we want a dedicated thread on that?


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:46 AM
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And apparently very abrupt and/or hush-hush as tonight's show was being teased on the network this morning.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:47 AM
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Fox is going to replace him with rotating hosts. I'm amusing myself by reading that as literally as possible.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:48 AM
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Do we want a dedicated thread on that?

A thread dedicated to gloating about Tucker Carlson's misfortune? I can't imagine anyone would want that.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:50 AM
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I'm just worried this means he ends up on the ticket. He has to find some way to pivot fully into grifting, and that's the easiest way.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 8:54 AM
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if my students won't leave my office, how will I set up the gloating-station???


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 9:03 AM
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Phew.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 04-24-23 9:03 AM
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Posted by: Irfan | Link to this comment | 05-24-23 2:16 AM
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Posted by: Telkom University | Link to this comment | 03-31-24 2:57 AM
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