Re: The Dead, All Of Them

1

It's a fallen world, where we have to look to Scott Ritter for moral backbone. A fallen, fallen world.


Posted by: Chetan Murthy | Link to this comment | 09-30-23 2:42 PM
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I was about to query the wisdom of quoting Ritter.


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 09-30-23 4:22 PM
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2: I think Ritter is right here, and not in a stopped-clock sort of way. He's just right. But ..... he's got a (disgusting) history, and after that has become an enemy of our Republic and the Western Alliance. So it's ..... pretty uncomfortable, that he's right.

We really screwed up, invading Iraq, and nobody paid a price for that except for the (h/t Atrios, Driftglass) the DFHs who were right all along. Ah, well.


Posted by: Chetan Murthy | Link to this comment | 09-30-23 4:25 PM
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One might point out that Trump is the way we are and will be all paying for it.


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 5:09 AM
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It is hard to resist a bad idea when professional persuaders have sold it to the public. In hindsight, though, Gambon was clearly a mistake as Dumbledore.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 6:13 AM
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In the field of two (2) field-tested Dumbledores, Gambon was clearly superior.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 6:44 AM
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I cannot imagine what possesses anyone who hears a news story and thinks "ooh, I wonder what respected and reliable political analyst Scott Ritter thinks about this?" I suppose Jeffrey Epstein was unavailable for comment.

But, really, guys, there is absolutely no reason to suppose that anything Ritter says here ever happened. Fibbers' forecasts are worthless, as D2 said in this context. Yeah, and so are fibbers' accounts of past events.


Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 6:45 AM
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6 is right, unless we count young Dumbledore in the nice suits.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 6:48 AM
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Gambon was a terrible Dumbledore, though.

I have no idea what this means and I'm happy to keep it that way.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 9:49 AM
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Gambon was clearly superior

You're trolling me! Gambon had approximately zero impishness, which is so important to making Dumbledore interesting. He played Dumbledore like he was playing Zeus. The first movie was very flat, but Harris was on the right track. In the second movie he was manifestly dying.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 9:59 AM
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On the Ritter thing, the "someone dead told me I was right about everything" isn't the most convincing argument I've ever seen.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 10:07 AM
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I have a question about Congressional politics that doesn't have to do with Feinstein or Ritter or the Senate*: what's a good way to evaluate whether to donate to a House campaign for a district you don't live in which also doesn't get much press coverage? A few years ago I donated to a campaign relatively late in an election cycle because I thought the candidate was a good one and the small amount of polling suggested the race could be close and it would flip the district. It turned out not to be close enough to feel like it was worth having donated.**

Is it inevitable that you're more or less guessing at whether a campaign will be close when there's little polling? Or was there some more research I could have done? To be clear, I don't expect a candidate to win when I donate, it's more that if the race is a 10 point loss it doesn't feel like there was much real chance for success, even if losing by 10 to a long-time incumbent is closer than lots of districts usually are. To be clear, I'm not talking about campaign like whoever runs against McConnell, where it looks like you're just lighting money on fire for the sake of FEC reports.

*Off-topic about 30 comments early but also I don't want to talk about Ritter.

**Since then I've only donated to nonprofits and charities that don't depend on winning elections.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 10:11 AM
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To be clear, I hate it when I start two sentences in a row with "to be clear" and don't notice.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 10:12 AM
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what's a good way to evaluate whether to donate to a House campaign for a district you don't live in which also doesn't get much press coverage?

Apparently, the current best knowledge is that people give more to whoever texts them the most times.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 10:24 AM
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Or who can invent the highest number for the alleged "matching".


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 10:37 AM
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Eighteen of the 21 are under the age of 80 and thus eligible under Church law to enter a secret conclave to elect the next pope after Francis' death or resignation. They are known as cardinal electors.
When Church law makes more sense than yours, you have to ask questions.


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 4:22 PM
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|||>


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 10- 1-23 4:22 PM
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Is it inevitable that you're more or less guessing at whether a campaign will be close when there's little polling?

Pretty much, yeah. In some cases you might be able to do some research on the demographics of the district and recent trends, etc., to identify a possible underrated opportunity, but for the most part you do just have to guess. Your money goes a lot further in these sorts of races than in, say, high-profile Senate races, so I think it still is generally worth it on the off chance it works, but it's very much a gamble.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 2-23 9:25 AM
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16 reminds me of my irritation at the apparently well-researched Robert Harris book "Conclave" which has a dramatic plot twist in which, several rounds into a deadlocked conclave, a chap appears and turns out to be a hitherto-unknown cardinal appointed in pectore by the previous pope, thus breaking the voting deadlock.

But in pectore appointments expire with the pope who enacted them, unless they're made public before his death! Gah.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 8:36 AM
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12: Didn't Balloon Juice try to identify some of those in 2022, and maybe even in 2020? I think they've also gone looking for flippable districts at the state level in purple-ish states, on the theory that smaller resources can make a larger difference there.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 10:12 AM
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Isn't this kinda what the Cook Political Report is for?


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 10:24 AM
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So, uh, looks like McCarthy is going to lose the Speakership...


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 11:01 AM
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If they need me to do it, I'm just down the street.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 11:05 AM
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I'll pass that along.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 11:06 AM
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Someone just drove by in a big motorcade.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 11:18 AM
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There's nothing in the Constitution that says the Speaker of the House can't be a place kicker.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 12:19 PM
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Ford was a long snapper at Michigan. I guess he was never Speaker though.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 12:30 PM
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20, 21: Yes, there are projections and I looked at them. But IIRC, they were off by enough to make me feel it was a waste.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 12:35 PM
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And, yep, no more Speaker McCarthy. For now.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 1:22 PM
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Yeah, I really thought he'd drag things out by bargaining with the Dems. That went down much faster than I expected.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 1:31 PM
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He might have tried, but he was trying to push them around like a week before - they asked for 90 minutes to quickly read the budget resolution before the vote, he refused - so on top of the merits, they were in no mood.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 1:34 PM
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Yeah, they really, really hate him, and for good reason. He may have reached out but the Dems very quickly decided to oppose him full stop so they would presumably have rebuffed any overture he made.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 1:39 PM
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I'm confused-- the speaker's power is partly transient (which committee gets a bill) and partly personnel-derived? What happens to the existing rules committee with no-one in speaker's office? Speaker pro-tem still has authority to decide on house agenda, right? If there's extended inability to choose a speaker, can other business (voting on a CR in November) get done in the house? Who decides about day-to-day agenda?


Posted by: lw | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 1:43 PM
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The only acceptable compromise is for enough Republicans to resign to restore a Democratic majority.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 1:50 PM
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33: The short answer to all those questions is that no one knows! This has never happened before so there's no precedent for exactly what powers the Speaker Pro Tem has, and experts on legislative procedure disagree on how to interpret the language describing it.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 1:56 PM
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I mean, they couldn't accomplish anything when they had a Speaker either, so.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 2:00 PM
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The house gets to decide its own rules, so all they need is for a majority to decide what powers the speaker pro tem has... oh wait...


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 2:10 PM
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I wonder if the outcome is no Speaker except during brief periods of time when they make a specific bipartisan deal and then the Dems vote for McCarthy. So like, no speaker for the next month and then Democrats all vote for McCarthy so he can put forward a bipartisan CR, and then when that's over you let the Republicans kick him out again, repeat until the next election.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 2:13 PM
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33 AIUI, there's a speaker pro tem, and he can do all the things until there's someone new. But he's not going to do much

A bipartisan delegation should ask Taylor Swift if she'll take the job. A uniter not a divider.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 2:14 PM
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Sorry, I was petting the cat before hitting Post.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 2:16 PM
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They're trying to figure out some of the details for presidential succession on Bluesky. It seems without a speaker, second in line is Senate Pro Tem, so Patty Murray.

Not clear that even the speaker pro tem (from that 9/11-born emergency contingency list) will be in the line of succession once confirmed. Right now "McHenry isn't actually the full speaker pro tem, only the ACTING speaker pro tem (pro tem pro tem)".


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 2:22 PM
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Assistant to the Speaker Pro Tem


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 3:10 PM
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43

McCarthy not running again? That's the first actual surprise here. I assumed we were just heading for another 30 votes and then he'd be back.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 4:45 PM
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43 Why would anyone want to strike the deal they'd have to strike with these people? As the man said, 'fool me once, won't get fooled again.'


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 5:08 PM
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Or, as the future speaker says, 'shake shake shake it off.'


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 5:20 PM
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44: It's a mystery, but so is why he wanted the job in the first place. I too am surprised he's not running again.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 5:20 PM
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47

I missed the earlier discussion but clearly Gambon was the inferior Dumbledore. It says in the book that when Harry's name came out of the Goblet of Fire that Dumbledore stared at the paper, cleared his throat, and read out "Harry Potter", then nods to McGonagall, and says "Harry! Up here, if you please!" Later he "calmly" asks Harry if he put his name in. Gambon instead played that scene as a screaming, wild eyed Dumbledore, which is a level of emotion never ascribed to him in the books.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 5:43 PM
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Yes. My thought when I saw Gambon's Dumbledore was "he never read the books."


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 6:19 PM
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Until this week, I didn't know there were two Dumbledores. I assume the first one died of boredom during a quidditch match.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 6:43 PM
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He'll get to join John Bohner and Paul Ryan on the list of recent Republican speakers who crawled away from their caucus saying "fuck this shit."


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 8:55 PM
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I mean, that seems like an unhealthy dynamic for their party, no?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 8:57 PM
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50: Technically, Gingrich as well. Republican House Speaker is a career-ending position. The only one of the last five who managed to survive was Hastert, and his legacy is just a little tarnished by his retirement stint in federal prison after being designated a "serial child molester" in federal court.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 10:40 PM
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Technically, Gingrich as well.

"I'm willing to lead but I'm not willing to preside over people who are cannibals."


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10- 3-23 10:43 PM
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The tattered shreds of Twitter occasionally still deliver:

Kevin McCarthy was abused so badly that Jim Jordan had to pretend he didn't see any of it.

https://x.com/ponderranch/status/1709476921606832450?s=46&t=qd8I3ZXUD2bzNhzE_AtTxA


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 2:23 AM
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31, 32: That hasn't stopped reporters from addressing this as something that Democrats would normally rescue him from. Murc's Law means that when McCarthy tore up the budget deal from June, that was just a thing that happened with no human intervention, like a traffic jam or climate change.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 3:38 AM
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It does make you wonder if Republicans are capable of learning. The next Speaker is going to run into another shutdown fight in a couple of weeks, and it's pretty clear that if he doesn't cooperate with Dems at all, they won't bail him out when his own party turns on him. On the other hand, possibly building allies on the other side of the aisle could save him.

But maybe the incentives to never never never cooperate are too strong.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 4:30 AM
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55: Is it possible to get links Bluesky tweets that aren't behind firewalls asking me to sign up for Bluesky? I'm not really inclined to sign up for an app that doesn't respect the open internet.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 4:44 AM
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I dunno, but if you want to join I've got a couple of codes. Email me if you want, as should anyone else.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:00 AM
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Thanks, but since I can't even see whats in there I'm not inclined to join. I've got enough going on and another exclusive sandbox is not what I'm looking for.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:08 AM
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I sympathize with that -- it's what's kept me off Mastodon. I don't really have a principled distinction between that and Bluesky, it's just that everyone talking about Mastodon talks up how awesome the walls of the garden are, and Bluesky doesn't seem to have the same vibe. But not wanting to get into anything of the sort is perfectly reasonable.

Offer's open to anyone else who wants it.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:18 AM
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I think Mastodon at least doesn't require you to log in to see the tweets toots. Its more about walling off shitty commenters than keeping all the content confined to the ecosystem. All the talk on there about maintaining garden walls does get tedious, though.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:27 AM
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I think there is a way to make open links? I'm on my phone so I can't check, but try copying the link in 55 and change the "bsky" bit to "psky". I'm not sure at all this will work, I get confused by this stuff super easily, but give it a shot.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:37 AM
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I just tried that.... doesn't work. It gets redirected to bsky.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:48 AM
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I think "psky" will work for making it unfurl on Discord/Slack, but don't work for just viewing the post on the web. (Spike, here's the important part of that tweet.)


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:51 AM
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Who are good bluesky follows?


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:04 AM
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You should follow neB.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:08 AM
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And Mara Wilson once liked my bweet, so her too.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:09 AM
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I believe those in the know call it a "skeet". Why? I have no idea at all.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:30 AM
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Thanks for the link. The idea that McCarthy would have gotten help from Democrats is kinda out there, although perhaps smarter Democratic leadership would have given it to him. Republicans in disarray makes for better TV, but I don't think the next swamp monster that emerges from the bog is going to be at all interested in keeping the government open after the 45 day extension is over.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:33 AM
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On follows, I just sort of followed people I know and then anyone who looks interesting. There's a core of early adopter weirdos who shitpost at each other, and I think if you like that kind of thing it's good quality nonsense, but I get confused and bored easily so I've managed not to see much of it.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:34 AM
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65 Faine Greenwood


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:47 AM
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I sympathize with that -- it's what's kept me off Mastodon. I don't really have a principled distinction between that and Bluesky, it's just that everyone talking about Mastodon talks up how awesome the walls of the garden are, and Bluesky doesn't seem to have the same vibe.

This is mostly wrong. Mastodon is open, though like twitter you can restrict some posts to followers. There have been people who talked about how some aspects of mastodon discourage twitter-like dynamics but I think by now they've been proven wrong and lots of people think the interface sucks. Some people praise the crappy aspects of the interface for keeping the place smaller.

I've assumed bluesky would eventually open their accounts but haven't seen a compelling reason to join before than.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:16 AM
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Mostly, the protesters in Layafette Square appear to be Jehovah's Witnesses.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:23 AM
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I mean, that seems like an unhealthy dynamic for their party, no?

Somehow I have Briahna Joy Gray in my Twitter (now X) feed, and she is complaining because Democrats like AOC don't do shit like this. If your policy goal is self-promotion and government paralysis, then yeah, the Matt Gaetz approach makes perfect sense.

It took me awhile to understand that this is exactly what these "leftists" are advocating. There are people who want government policies that preserve the environment or promote healthcare or otherwise help people. Their opponents are people like Briahna Joy Gray and Matt Gaetz.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:25 AM
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I am irritated to report that both my centrist colleague and my fearful-Democrat mother dinged the house Democrats for not saving McCarthy.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:39 AM
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McMegan is joining in on blame-Dems-for-GOP-being-bad, bringing us full circle.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:41 AM
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Speaking of.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/theyre-just-meat-russia-deploys-punishment-battalions-echo-stalin-2023-10-03/


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:49 AM
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54: Kurtz over at TPM offers another one from Twitter (now X) that I think Moby especially would appreciate:

GOP learns the hard way: Turning the base up too high blows out your Speaker


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:53 AM
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Can't talk. Looking at natural history.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:00 AM
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80

They have a Mōai.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:03 AM
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75, 76 - I mean, if the Democrats can't support a good-faith moderate like McCarthy you'd think they'd respond to his explicit offer of "nothing".


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:08 AM
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(81 was me)


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:09 AM
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And a $5 donut


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:10 AM
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78.2 is great.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:14 AM
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Hey I went to HS with that guy (the tweeter, not McCarthy)


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:24 AM
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This place is really pro-evolution.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:29 AM
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I thought the old lady dropped it into the ocean, but the diamond is supposedly here.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:38 AM
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They sell water in pounders and it doesn't taste right.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 8:48 AM
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89

It's bizarre that people somehow think of McCarthy as a moderate option in any sense. He supported the coup! He's way to the right of Mitch McConnell!


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:02 AM
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They have just a coal mine exhibit instead of a stratavator into a coal mine.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:06 AM
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house Democrats for not saving McCarthy

This is utterly mystifying to me. The Democrats voted the *exact same way* they voted for all 15 rounds of McCarthy's election. And McCarthy has done absolutely nothing except scorched earth policies toward them during his entire tenure. So now they should make up the difference when his own party bails on him? Would Republicans have stepped in if House Democrats had revolted against Pelosi? Please.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:11 AM
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69
The idea that McCarthy would have gotten help from Democrats is kinda out there, although perhaps smarter Democratic leadership would have given it to him.

I don't know, I don't feel like it wouldn't have been smart for the Democrats to vote for McCarthy without some kind of deal, and as of Tuesday morning it's hard to imagine what kind of meaningful deal they could have made. If you go back a week and imagine McCarthy not blaming Democrats for the near-shutdown, or go back to months farther and imagine him not reneging on the deal with the White House (in fairness, I can't find any details about this, so maybe I imagined it?), then maybe Democrats could have trusted him enough to work with him, but as of Tuesday, I wouldn't have called that smart.

Republicans in disarray makes for better TV, but I don't think the next swamp monster that emerges from the bog is going to be at all interested in keeping the government open after the 45 day extension is over.

That being said, I admit I formed the opinion in my previous paragraph when I thought that the most likely outcome would be McCarthy as speaker again, after some pain and humiliation. But now he says he's not running. So who knows.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:18 AM
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And 89 is completely correct. "How are you liberals going to enjoy Speaker Jim Jordan?" Well, the news will be way shoutier and more annoying, but functionally what would be any different? McCarthy already handed them the keys on Day 1. This is a personal dispute, not an ideological one.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:19 AM
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Snarkout and apo beat me to it, more succinctly.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:26 AM
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95

Why does the HUD building look like Hillman Library.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:33 AM
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I was recently at a training on inspecting housing to meet HUD standards, and the last slide the guy showed was exposed rebar (against standards!) on... the HUD building!


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:35 AM
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I really don't know how things will play out with any of the new guys, but someone further right but who kept his word and had control of his caucus might actually be better than McCarthy. Biden, McConnell, and McCarthy made a bipartisan deal months ago, and then McCarthy just backed out and didn't bring it up for a vote. How are you supposed to negotiate with someone like that? You need someone who's actually competent at his job if you want to make compromises and negotiate.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:39 AM
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The HUD building is one of those rotting old brutalist facades in the Federal Area of DC, yes? Boy those things have got to be replaced.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:45 AM
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I don't think McCarthy's personal qualities sunk their cohabitation. The problem is HFC demands all the control and none of the responsibility, and a veto over everything the speaker might do, and the rest of the caucus either supports them quietly or doesn't want to confront them. Jordan or Scalise or anything "less crazy" (debatable) is going to have the same issue.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:48 AM
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Effectively, no working majority exists in the House. When does the king have to call for new elections?


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 9:49 AM
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McCarthy did exactly one thing that argued in favor of him remaining speaker: He allowed for the 45-day extension. But he didn't do it for America. He did it for the Republican Party. Saving McCarthy means protecting the Republican Party -- which is why Republicans almost universally favored it.

If the Republican Party goes down the tubes, it might take the US with it -- that's a real risk and Democrats are properly concerned. But if the Republican Party survives in its current form, the US is fucked, and the Dems are smart to understand that.

It's up to the Republicans to decide whether they want to be minimally functional.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 10:45 AM
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The interesting question going forward is not so much who will be the next speaker, but on what terms will that person take the job. McCarthy is out because -- unlike his promise to Biden -- his promise to the Freedom Caucus was binding.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 10:48 AM
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Speaking of politics, I just won my primary by a vote of 117-26. I'll be facing the same guy in the general, but its a load off my mind because I thought I had more haters than that. I was concerned he would break 40%.


Posted by: Franklin Richards | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 10:50 AM
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if the Republican Party survives in its current form, the US is fucked

This x100. Democrats stepping in would have simply preserved the status quo, both for McCarthy and Gaetz. Democrats shouldn't do anything for Republicans, period. Not just in government, in general.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 11:03 AM
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Is there any reason Democrats can't pick a speaker and try to peel off 4 Republicans to elect them?


Posted by: Long Time Lurker | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 12:25 PM
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I'm on bluesky as bagatsen. I found LB, and I found sifu. Moby found me.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 12:28 PM
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107

Congratulations, Franklin!


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 12:28 PM
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108

Maybe this is naive and dumb, but it almost feels parliamentarian. The FC is functioning as an actual third party insofar as they're not putting the Republican party first, and so no party has a majority and no one will get elected without a coalition.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 12:30 PM
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105: If they're doing that, we probably won't hear about it until 2 hours before it happens.

108: Kind of. The HFC speaks for a lot of the caucus who are not formally its members, so it's not as simple as "they're a different party usually but not always aligned".


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 12:35 PM
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(I'm on bsky as snark.)

Twitter thread from Rep. Don Beyer's chief of staff giving his stated thinking. The whole thing is worth reading, but this jumped out at me: "A speakership founded upon Democrats' trust that McCarthy will lie to his own guys and not to us is not rational, folks! It isn't sustainable or reasonable and it's no way to run the House. We needed him to give us any reason to help him and he very intentionally did not do so." Fritschner says people were particularly pissed at the failure to give Democrats time to read the CR, which they assumed (probably correctly) was a stunt designed to shift blame onto Democrats for a shutdown.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 12:47 PM
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101.1: I think it's increasingly likely that this was all just a big screwup, and he thought that Democrats were going to vote down the CR and just got outplayed when they voted for it. That is, he wasn't trying to keep the government open, he was trying to shift the blame to Democrats and thought the cute to Ukraine funding was enough of a poison pill that Democrats would vote it down.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:00 PM
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A glimpse at casual racism/misogyny from a guy who was one of the NYT's mainline "straight" political reporters for years here's Jonathan Martin (now at Politico since last year):

A smart Repub notes that we're on verge of having a soon-to-be-81-year-old potus, a vp w scant experience on world stage (to be charitable) and a vacancy in the speakership.

What a fucking dick (to be charitable).


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:05 PM
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It was so much more solid when Kevin freaking McCarthy was in there.

McHenry is or isn't in the line or does it go right to the senate? McHenry is an ultradick all on his own who has just been overshadowed in recent years by the transcendentally towering phali Gaetz, Gossr et al.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:14 PM
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People seem to think it skips McHenry and goes right to the Senate.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:15 PM
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111: Beyer's chief of staff explicitly gives some credence to this thought.
112: Martin was the one who blew the story that got Trump impeached the first time because he was getting spoon-fed Burisma gossip and missed the forest for the trees, right?


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:16 PM
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110 I don't remember if I'm already following you there but I can't find you as "snark"
I'm BarryFreed there


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:16 PM
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And congrats to Franklin


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:17 PM
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113: Analysts seem divided. NYT: "It is also not clear whether Mr. McHenry would be considered second in the presidential line of succession -- behind the vice president -- as the elected speaker of the House is. Experts said they did not believe that applied to an acting speaker."

I remember someone on Bluski referenced the Presidential succession Act (3 USC 18) as speaking to this issue, but I don't see how, unless it's that somehow the plain word "Speaker" is to be read as exclusive to a full one.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:31 PM
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115.2: No I think you are thinking of Jen Vogel, another thin-skinned asshole.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 1:32 PM
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116: Their search is bad; it looks like you have to put in "snark.bsky.social" to find me.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 3:28 PM
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121

Ken Vogel


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 3:30 PM
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122

Informative thread here, by one of the top experts on House procedure.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 3:35 PM
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The upshot is that he thinks the powers should be interpreted pretty broadly given the intent behind the rule, but McHenry's actual behavior so far implies that McHenry believes his own authority to be more limited (but not as limited as the minimalist interpretation).


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 3:37 PM
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With great power, comes great responsibility. McHenry is trying to finesse his lack of responsibility by claiming a lack of power.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 3:45 PM
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125

Took me a while to figure out what people were abbreviating as MTV. I blame the cable channel for rarely showing music.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 4:15 PM
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126

Marjorie Tailleuse Verte


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:17 PM
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127

His first order of business was to kick Pelosi out of her office?


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:30 PM
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Assholing comes first.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 5:52 PM
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128: And second, third, and fourth. The Trumpification of the GOP is complete. It's assholes all the way down.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:13 PM
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And the pogroms feel ever nearer.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:21 PM
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Greenwood is usually a good follow but he keeps riling up a harassment campaign against Yglesias. Deeply obnoxious. I could be wrong but I think a few years ago he was one of those MeFites shitting up every thread with a man as the subject.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:27 PM
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130: It's not a pogrom if the target isn't Jewish. It's "domestic racist terrorism. "


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 6:43 PM
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It's not a "pogrom" unless its Russian. Otherwise, it's "sparkling lynching."


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:01 PM
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Yeah. That's an improvement.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 7:12 PM
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"The arc of conspiracy theory is short, and it bends toward blaming Jews."

Was that an Unfogged original, or did I likely see it somewhere else?


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 11:23 PM
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It's not a pogrom if it's fomented by a tech baron, then it's a brogrom.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 4-23 11:52 PM
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Holy shit, fa


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:04 AM
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138

||
On cue:
https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/azerbaijan-turkiye-join-forces-to-diversify-natural-gas-supplies-to-nakhchivan-with-new-pipeline-2023-9-26-0/
Which implies at minimum Aliyev doesn't think he can straight up conquer southern Armenia right now.
OR It's just a hedge IN CASE he can't conquer it right now.
OR It's just the first leg of a projected pipeline crossing Turkey and Nakhchivan AND conquered Armenia.
|>


Posted by: mc | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:31 AM
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131 They/them. And that's a strong point in their favor in my book.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:43 AM
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A few notifications upon the screen made him close the window. They had begun to grift again. He watched warily the pitch, overblown and dark, a sort of shrieking against reality. The time had come for him to set out on his journey leftward. Yes, the newspapers were right: grift was general all over Republicand. It was falling on every part of the reactionary centrist plain, on the Trumpist shills, falling thickly upon the bog of think tanks and, farther rightward, thickly falling into the dark mutinous Bannon waves. It was falling, too, upon every part of the lonely hideaway on the Hill where Kevin McCarthy lay sulking. It fell viscous and vicious on the crooked lawyers and talking heads, on the bullets of the insider sheets, on the podcast hosts. His soul swooned slowly as he heard the grift seeping steady through the internet and steady seeping, like the descent of their last end, upon all the living and the dead.


Posted by: The Next Speaker of the House, the Honorable James Augustine Aloysius Joyce | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:48 AM
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It is quite an extraordinary rule that the Speaker of the House doesn't actually have to be a member of the House. They didn't get that from the House of Commons, and I wonder where it came from.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 3:27 AM
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It seems that the authors simply didn't think that it would be conceivable to have a non-member as speaker, so they didn't bother putting a rule in saying the speaker had to be a member.


Posted by: ajay | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 3:28 AM
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139: Oops, meant to check after writing but just hit post and forgot.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 5:42 AM
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one thing that argued in favor of him remaining speaker: He allowed for the 45-day extension

I actually suspect he thought he was pulling a fast one here and it blew up on him. He put forward the extension without Ukraine funding thinking that would be a poison pill, Democrats would balk, and then he would blame the shutdown on them. Then he went out the very next day and said on a TV interview that Democrats had tried to shut down the government, because his entire narrative depended on that being the case and he had no backup explanation.

It's honestly difficult to imagine that *any* member of the House who can get the votes of the caucus would be particularly worse than McCarthy in functional terms.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 6:09 AM
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I think a lot of the assumption that McCarthy is/was some sort of grownup just comes from him being able to wear a suit like a normal grownup, an increasingly rare skill in the GOP.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 7:44 AM
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I need to buy a new suit. I finally got big enough that my 1996 suit doesn't fit in the shoulders.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 8:40 AM
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I actually suspect he thought he was pulling a fast one here and it blew up on him. He put forward the extension without Ukraine funding thinking that would be a poison pill, Democrats would balk, and then he would blame the shutdown on them. Then he went out the very next day and said on a TV interview that Democrats had tried to shut down the government, because his entire narrative depended on that being the case and he had no backup explanation.

Yes, this seems increasingly likely to be what actually happened. He tried to corner the Dems for political advantage but they called his bluff and he had no idea what to do. Then he expected them to save his Speakership in exchange for nothing. He seems to be very dumb and incompetent.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 9:12 AM
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The bus driver lowered the bus for me to get on and now I feel 107. Maybe it was just the luggage?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 9:41 AM
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I wonder if anyone suggested a non-member Speaker before the release of Air Bud (1997).


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 10:04 AM
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150

You didn't see Gus?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 10:38 AM
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I'm getting what I assume are scam calls, but they keep asking me if I speak Hindi (I think) and apologizing for the wrong number when I say I only speak English.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:16 PM
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I guess the scam only works if you speak Hindi. They guy calling clearly speaks English pretty well, so I think he could at least try to scam me if the scam wasn't too specific for that.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:18 PM
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yes and drew him down to the House floor so he could feel my rules of order all precedenty yes and his gavel was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes


Posted by: The Next Speaker of the House, the Honorable Nora Joyce née Barnacle | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:41 PM
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138, but not really: Thanks mc for nudging me back to reading the Banffy book. Long about page 50 it turned into something great, on par with the best things I have read in years. A young person totally could not have written those passages, but neither could an older person who had forgotten what it was like to be young, or whom age had curdled.

I hope it stays even half this good the rest of the way through.

(Why am I on the internet instead of reading more of this book? Maybe that's part of my problem.)


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 12:44 PM
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I'm glad you're happy, but it wasn't me.


Posted by: mc | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 5:45 PM
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Do I remember correctly that in some (or many?) parliamentary systems, government funding continues even if the no one can form a majority, averting shutdown situations? And beyond that, did something like this help Belgium delay austerity after the financial crisis in 2008?

So many big questions, so few search engines where I could research them.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 7:32 PM
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Yeah, I think we're basically the only country in the world that has things set up this way.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 8:00 PM
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And only quite recently! The whole shutdown thing only started during the Carter administration when they reinterpreted how funding authorization works.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 10- 5-23 9:34 PM
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Australia had one in 1975 when their senate blocked the budget passed by the lower house, which resulted in all kinds of shenanigans, drama, and eventually both a change of government and an emergency general election. I don't know if they've changed the rules since to prevent that scenario happening again, but most Westminster systems usually either reserve the budget to the lower house or provide for a tiebreak that overrules the upper house in some circumstances (in the UK's case, both, as the Parliament Act both denies the Lords the right to block or really do anything to the budget and provides for the Commons to overrule them).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_bill says that although the Australian constitution still lets the senate block the budget, since 1975 the political parties have agreed not to do that again.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 10- 6-23 2:37 AM
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....mate.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 10- 6-23 2:38 AM
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154: May have been me. I believe I posted about it recently. Just finished the trilogy; wife is mostly done with the first. High quality throughout. I did get a bit weary of one plot line. Descriptions make me want to visit Transylvania.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 6:28 AM
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Does the intertidal zone have topography or bathymetry?


Posted by: Mossy Character | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 8:29 AM
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The former at low tide, the latter at high tide.


Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 10:32 AM
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RIP Terence Davies. Until yesterday probably Britain's greatest living filmmaker. Go see one of his films (my personal favorite being Distant Voices, Still Lives). It's a shame we couldn't have had many more from him than we did but such is the sorry state of film culture and funding in the UK (and generally).


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 10:43 AM
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164: I've only seen his House of Mirth, with a tremendous Gillian Anderson as Lily.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 10:48 AM
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That was probably just forced perspective. They can't make her bigger.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 11:38 AM
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I've only seen "Deep Blue Sea", but the twist that happened to Samuel Jackson was great.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 11:42 AM
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161: It was you! I cheated by going back and looking. Thanks for the nudge to return. Page 125, so about 25% of the way through the first book, really digging how he gives the reader enough to understand the people without becoming heavy-handed. Also liking how many characters there are because part of the point is that all of these people knew lots of others.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 2:59 PM
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165: One of my favorite literary adaptations. Too bad it seems like no one ever streams or plays it.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 3:37 PM
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Tidal flats, the werewolves of cartography.


Posted by: mc | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 8:18 PM
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Rather like the AP Herbert case of the man driving along a flooded road (and keeping left, as per the Highway Code) who collided with a small motorboat going the other way (and keeping right, as per the Rules of Seamanship): which set of rules should be applied?


Posted by: Ajay | Link to this comment | 10- 7-23 11:35 PM
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||

Penetrating the natives: Peanut breeding, peasants and the colonial state in Senegal (1900-1950) 1
|>


Posted by: mc | Link to this comment | 10- 8-23 2:19 AM
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171 is another reason you're doing it wrong.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 10- 8-23 6:12 AM
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OK, maybe intertidal driving is the only place where driving on the left has a hypothetical problem. Saying "another reason" was hyperbole.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 10- 8-23 6:32 AM
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150: Looking at its Wikipedia page, I don't think I ever heard of the movie before you mentioned it.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10- 8-23 7:55 AM
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We had a thing called "culture".


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 8-23 8:03 AM
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176: Then penicillin wiped it out.


Posted by: Doug | Link to this comment | 10- 8-23 8:20 AM
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I was apparently confusing "Francis the Talking Mule" and "Gus." Because I saw both of them but thought it was only one movie.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 10- 8-23 8:24 AM
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