I'm thinking everyone has marvelous thoughts on this topic but that the comment box is too narrow to contain.
Comparative politics is very difficult.
This is indeed seeming like a bit of a dud topic. I'M JUST ASKING QUESTIONS, since when is that so fraught?
If anybody would know, it might be Timothy Snyder. Your question reminds me of: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOjJtEkKMX4
He argues that "sadopopulism" is the only way oligarchies can work. That is to say,
they can't actually govern and deliver things, so instead they tell their voters that
"those people over there" are responsible for their pain, and "if you put us in office
we'll go hurt them on your behalf."
That's a kissing cousin of your second question, perhaps?
I'm just happy we avoided the horror of a temporary government shutdown. Glad people can still work across the aisle these days. We are truly blessed as a nation.
Oh man, "sado-populism" really captures this horrific moment, doesn't it.
Sorry, I was busy before I got a chance to say: the one counterexample I know for rural/urban divide is the account of North Korea given in Nothing to Envy (I think -- or possibly a different book about NK? North Korea Confidential, which was less good but more recent?). The point was more or less that totalitarianism was at its most complete, and prosperity highest, in Pyongyang, and there was much more fraying of the fabric of illusion in the northeast and/or along the Chinese border. In Russia, by contrast, I think Moscow is still both the center of government and the center of opposition. I suspect Tehran is similar but I don't know.
I think the dynamic in Russia is more complicated than that. The political opposition (such as it is) is centered in Moscow, but the real conflict isn't berween those factions, but between Moscow and the provinces.
Started out as orings, but then they got too cold.
1. Hungary: yes; Georgia: yes (though low-information can be really low); Russia: yes (probably enhanced by war propaganda these days).
2. All three, more that corruption is reversion to the mean, and a certain amount of vindictive retaliation is part and parcel of corruption. There are also traditions of patronage networks, where your patron looks out for you, and one way they demonstrate their ability to look out for you is retaliating against people who cross them. In terms of how patron-oriented those three places I have lived are, I would say Georgia > Russia > Hungary.
Also, retaliation these days is less horrible than it was in living memory, let alone within what adults remember hearing from previous generations.
3. There may be more variety here in my three countries. One thing to remember is that almost all European countries are very centralized. Budapest holds a fifth of Hungary's population, metro area holds about a third. In the US, that would be a metro area of 100 million people. There used to be a strong memory of the Smallholders' Party, who represented independent farmers between the wars, and opposed both fascists and Communists. Post-1989, they were in two governments, but have not won any seats in parliament since 2002 and are probably now consigned to history. Fidesz holds power in all of the regional assemblies outside of Budapest, but this may be less the result of a rural ideology (let alone traditions; the party was founded among Budapest intellectuals) than of being a party of power holding local administrative offices.
Speaking of which, rural Georgia is definitely a case where holding power in the countryside means controlling resources and distributing largesse. Think Mississippi county sheriff who also controls how much money flows from the state and federal level, and to whom. Plus the districts are small enough that you know very well who stands where. Couple that with patronage networks and you get local structures that are very resistant to change, though they may switch sides when the national winds turn (as when Shevardnadze fell or when Saakashvili lost the election).
In political Russia there are only two places, a truism that goes way back: the capital and everywhere else. The flip side of that is captured in the folk saying that the Empire is large and the Tsar is far away. You could get away with a lot because Russia is too big and too dispersed to govern closely. On the other hand, that meant that local potentates could get away with a lot, too, because Moscow (and before that St Petersburg) did not have many effective levers to rein them in.
Those are obviously post-communist and mostly-European examples; the answers elsewhere may be different.
11.penultimate: What is the status of St, Petersburg these days? Considered a relative backwater? Retains some cultural panache? Vital second city?
I see from population trends that it has steadily fallen well behind Moscow 9as expected) since mid-last century. (And I suspect
And I guess relevant to the OP, Differentiated politically from Moscow in any way.
One thing to remember is that almost all European countries are very centralized.
I hadn't really thought about this, but it's clearly true, and distinctive relative to most other regions of the world. Trying to think of exceptions, there's Germany, Italy, Switzerland... any others?
Ah yes, although that depends on whether and how you divide up the main conurbation.
This question made me so sad.
But also laugh a tiny bit because it's such an Unfogged question (let's intellectualize! Someone make some still legal comparisons!)
AW BELGIUM MAN, BELGIUM
13-14: I'm sad that in the nine months I lived in Moscow, I never got to go up to St Petersburg. One of a number of regrets from that time. (The biggest, unf, is having someone in your family work for Oxfam International, which is what brought us to Moscow in the first place.) Culturally, I gather that it's sort of a NY/LA divide, in that people who like one tend to have strong and negative opinions about the other. My better half is firmly on the Moscow side of that divide, which partly explains why we never took the train up.
Anyway! Probably retains some cultural panache but for everything else I think it is firmly in Moscow's shadow. The population of the metro area is about 6 million, but that's still only roughly 1/3 that of metro Moscow. It was VVP's original launching pad, but I don't think there are many people still around from the old days, and I don't think that plays much of a role in terms of money or prestige flowing back there. I don't know enough to say whether it is at present politically differentiated from Moscow at all.
still legal comparisons
analogy ban --> analogy tariff
One thing to remember is that almost all European countries are very centralized.
I hadn't really thought about this, but it's clearly true, and distinctive relative to most other regions of the world.
I stand to be corrected, but I think the last part is wrong. I think approximately European-average levels of centralization are the global norm, with the exception of very large countries: India, China, Mexico;* Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, Ethiopia (maybe); Indonesia, Philippines (IDK).
*And these are decentralized, but not at all decentralized in the same way the US is. Frex, India just imposed President's Rule on Manipur: the state government (in the Westminster sense of that word) is dissolved and the state is placed under direct rule by the national government.
Chhattisgarh and Telangana are the only states where the President's rule has never been imposed so far.[I note these have only been states since 2000 and 2014, respectively] Manipur is the state where it has been invoked the most number of times, currently under the rule since February 2025 for the eleventh time.
the real conflict isn't between those factions, but between Moscow and the provinces.
AIUI this isn't true. There is conflict of interest between Moscow and the regions, but that doesn't manifest* much in political struggles, whether popular or within the regime. The real conflicts at this point are all within the regime, about control of fiefdoms.
*Although it certainly could.
Canada, Argentina, Australia . Where 23* also applies. How much can Argentinian federalism mean when BA province is ~40% of population?
OP3: AIUI PiS, Fidesz, and AKP all have much more rural support than urban.
OP1: Salvadorans have been very happy to vote for persecution of gangsters without due process, and for sundry erosions of their democracy.
Thing is, their gang violence and Swamp were real, they weren't just imagining it.
doesn't manifest* much in political struggles
Not in Moscow politics, no. What I meant is that replacing Putin with one of the (mostly neutered anyhow) Moscow opposition is unlikely to change much about the Russian system until there is a fundamental re-ordering of the power relations between Moscow and the rest of the empire.
27: Thanks for getting me to check how far back Fidesz' turn to the right went; it was much further than I thought (1993 party congress). Their current identity throws me because I think of their founding as "Young Democrats" opposing the then-ruling communist party. Their color even comes from a movie that was a satire on communist conformity.
But yes, they have a rural and small-town base these days. Their transformation is complete.
PiS is definitely a rural/small-town party and has been all along. They come out of Solidarity factions, and some of their remaining pro-social positions stem from those days. I don't know how much they draw on Rural Solidarity, that's possibly an interesting story.
Also, if you look at this map --
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2023_powiaty.svg
-- wow, you can really see the border of the old German Empire in present-day Poland. The Austrian/Russian border in the south is a little easier to make out in the 2015 results. At this point, I'm probably obliged to quote Faulkner about the past.
I don't know much of anything about AKP, but I have the same understanding about its general base of support.
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La Réparation is very pretty but not very good. The folklorists among you may be amused drawing out the parallels.
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30 link is a hell of a thing, and surprising. 12 decades of Russians will leave a stain, sure, but enough not to wash out in WWII, and communism, and westernization?
This is kind of wild.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/opinion/trump-harvard-law-firms.html
He could have left the stuff out about being woke, but he's generally pretty bland. Still too bland but for him this is really something.
Happy filet o fish friday, to all those who observe the day.
Has anyone else seen The Penguin Lessons? Set in Argentina 1976.
I think approximately European-average levels of centralization are the global norm, with the exception of very large countries: India, China, Mexico;* Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, Ethiopia (maybe); Indonesia, Philippines (IDK).
I.e., the biggest and most important countries in all regions except Europe. Small countries everywhere tend to be relatively centralized for obvious reasons so it's in these big countries that any regional differences would be expected to show up.
centralization
Poland is pretty decentrailzed, has taken active steps to develop distinct regions rather than keeping everything in Warsaw. Polish GDP per capita has been growing at a steady clip for quite a while. Tusk seems good overall, though I've mostly read about his foreign policy and external economic consequences.
35: It's supposed to be a day of sacrifice, but you aren't supposed to risk permanent damage.
36: Yes. It was decent, a bit too pat and "just so" for my tastes. Political aspects although at the core of the movie's plot were fairly surficial.
38: Poland is so decentralized that major parts of it are now in Belarus and Ukraine.
Yeah, but some of Germany is in Poland.
holy shit you guys, I just straight up forgot to post today!!
We're camping, and I just kind of assumed it was saturday. It's not.
I don't know why I thought that agreeing to peer review a couple of papers would help science in its current struggle with Trump, but I'm obviously not focusing on the papers very well.
Would it help if it were still Friday?
If it weren't Friday, I could eat beef jerky. If I had beef jerky.
Because I've heardv things about it, I wanted to read the Wikipedia plot summary of "Banshees of Inisherin." It didn't help.
They need a "The Fuck?" section, right before "Reception."
Doug@30: I'm guessing you know this already, but Orban's story is so .... tragic. I quote from Tony Judt's _Postwar_:
Thirty-three years later, on June 16th 1989, in a Budapest celebrating its transition to freedom, hundreds of thousands of Hungarians took part in another ceremonial reburial: this time of Imre Nagy and his colleagues. One of the speakers over Nagy's grave was the young Viktor Orbán, future Prime Minister of his country. 'It is a direct consequence of the bloody repression of the Revolution,' he told the assembled crowds, 'that we have had to assume the burden of insolvency and reach for a way out of the Asiatic dead end into which we were pushed. Truly, the Hungarian Socialist Workers' Party robbed today's youth of its future in 1956.'
I'm fully prepared to believe that even as he gave that speech, he was the Viktor Orban we know today, willing to throw anything away in order to gain and keep power. But ..... still, it's so tragic that in 1989 he said the right things, and .... well here we are in 2025.
ETA: I should say, not "tragic for Orban", but "tragic for Hungary and the cause of freedom."
51: Yes, yes exactly. I worked at English-language newspapers in Budapest in 1993-94, and although I didn't know Orban, the early Fidesz people were very much the peer group of the international journalists and all of the folks who were working toward fulfilling the promise of 1989. (Nick Clegg, speaking of tragic for his country, was a reporter for the Financial Times in Budapest during that period.) If I'm more than two degrees of separation from Orban, I'll be very, very surprised.
Hungary was so far ahead of the other Visegrad countries back then, and now they are third of the four in rough prosperity terms. (And for a Magyar chauvinist, it's gotta sting that they've fallen behind Slovakia.) It just seems so unnecessary.
42: Should we consider that a major part?
49: I really really didn't like that movie.
The wikipedia plot summary is nicely written.
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"Some are trying to spread venom in the society. I am requesting to those persons to stop. We are demanding our rights, we are not demanding your rights. This is very sensitive issue, so try to understand," he said.|>
55: Much.
In fact, a lot of what Jan Casimir is talking about above was the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, rather than the Kingdom of Poland.
This is very good
https://www.crisesnotes.com/liquidity-volatility-and-market-craziness-paul-krugman-interviews-nathan-tankus-again/
Support for democracy
Supply of democracy
- On average across 39 countries, support for democracy remains robust: Two-thirds (66%) of Africans say they prefer democracy to any other system of government, and large majorities reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%).
- But across 30 countries surveyed consistently over the past decade, support for democracy has declined by 7 percentage points, including by 29 points in South Africa and 23 points in Mali.
- Opposition to military rule has weakened by 11 points across 30 countries, most dramatically in Mali and Burkina Faso (by 40 and 36 points, respectively).
- More than half of Africans (53% across 39 countries) are willing to accept a military takeover if elected leaders "abuse power for their own ends."
- Growing majorities call for government accountability and the rule of law, and support for other democratic norms has held steady over the past decade, including presidential accountability to Parliament, multiparty competition, presidential term limits, and media freedom.
- But support for elections has dropped by 8 percentage points across 30 countries, though a large majority still consider it the best method for choosing their leaders.
Drivers of democratic attitudes
- Fewer than half (45%) of Africans think their countries are mostly or completely democratic, and only 37% say they are satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries.
- Across 30 countries, both indicators show declines - of 8 and 11 percentage points, respectively - over the past decade.
- Satisfaction with democracy has dropped precipitously in some of Africa's most high-profile democracies, including Botswana (-40 points), Mauritius (-40 points), and South Africa (-35 points).
- Other indicators of democratic supply also show at least modest declines, including citizen assessments of the quality of elections and their president's accountability to Parliament and the courts.
- Deepening citizen dissatisfaction with how democracy is performing is strongly associated with perceived declines in both socioeconomic and political performance.
- But support for democracy as a system of government is more resilient to economic and social deficiencies. Where we see declines in support for democracy, they are most closely linked to adverse changes in political performance, such as declining election quality, increasing levels of corruption, and failure to promote the rule of law.
I seem to have successfully survived writing about Israel-Palestine for a local audience! That was stressful. Phew.
Tne nature of unsuccessful survival is left as an exercise for the reader.
The nature of unsuccessful survival is left as an exercise for the last (and possibly next) decade of my life
IKR?
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Teo, has 1830s cholera in Canada crossed your your horizon? Apparently very different responses in Nova Scotia vs Quebec/Lower Canada.
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Years ago I read or listened to (SupChina, probably) a thing that surveyed Indians, asking basically if they would give up democracy in exchange for get-shit-done government like the PRC had. The answer was solidly no, especially among the poor: they knew that their vote was the only power they had.
Teo, has 1830s cholera in Canada crossed your your horizon? Apparently very different responses in Nova Scotia vs Quebec/Lower Canada.
Only slightly; I've read a couple of articles on it but would be interested in any additional references.
JD Vance killed him.
Huh, they cancel all Italian soccer when the pope dies? Who knew?
73: I'm sorry to hear that. But he actually lasted a full 12 years which is a decent length of time.
74: I'm going to put that on the only social media I have left, LinkedIn.
So did JD actually meet the Pope? I thought he was relegated to a lecture from an underling.
What else could kill an 88 year old man who was recently hospitalized for being unable to breathe?
Is the Pope thread-worthy? Or do we run out of things to say rather quickly, beside, "pretty nice guy, that one!"
I decided this was a perfectly good pope-thread, and went in a different direction.
Someone stole Noem's purse while she was at a restaurant. She's either into insurance fraud or had $3,000 cash with her.
This is the first Vice President who has killed a pope since Dick Cheney took out John Paul II.
Someone stole Noem's purse while she was at a restaurant.
I feel like the head of the Department of Homeland Security should have better security than this.
The guy was wearing a surgical mask. The security people were probably afraid of being near someone vaccinated.
I think the Pope is thread-worthy! There's the conclave, the JD Vance murder mystery, how much his policies will stick (notably on trans issues)...
And how silly "the Pope is dead" looks in various Low Germanic languages.
On it! After all, I've got a post-deficit to dig myself out of.
Belgium is failing in a weird and different way (two people white-knuckling it because they don't want to split custody of the baby, where the baby is Brussels), but boy is all the food and drink awful good.
Only recently did I start to appreciate the heavier Belgian beers.
The bar I'm in right now is both like a normal neighborhood bar for people to smoke out on the patio on their way home from work, and then also the basement is just shelves and shelves of impossible to buy elsewhere bottles of sour beers. Whole shelves where you could sell every bottle for $100 in America.
