Where's the needle!
Apparently they don't start counting until a week after the election
I guess it's hard to understand without seeing which precincts are in, but can someone explain to me why Mamdani is way up in Brooklyn but Cuomo is way up in the Bronx? Spanish-language media?
They'll count the #1 votes (as indeed they already have), but they apparently won't tabulate the ranked-choice reallocations for a week.
6 thanks
How's everyone following the count?
OIC, the point is that they don't start the ranked choice calculation until all the votes are in, because in principle a change in votes could change the order in which candidates are eliminated and thus the whole process. And the mail-in votes count as long as they arrive by July 1, so they don't do the calculation until then.
9 of course, thanks for the explanation (not a mat person)
It's a bit silly in this case, as it's really just a two-person race, so the order you eliminate candidates won't actually matter. But in a closer 3-way race it makes a lot of sense.
How are they going to stop the steal if they can't start it for a week?
Like in the famous Palin/Begich/Peltola race it really really mattered who got eliminated first. Would be awkward if a few votes came in and it went from Peltola beating Palin in the last round to Begich beating Peltola in the last round.
But there's basically no way Mamdani can lose, right? An 8-point lead in first-place votes with 72% in and Lander running third.
Hard to say without knowing what vote is yet to come in, especially since the first chunk was early vote. But yes if he's up by 8 his odds should be very good.
Apparently Cuomo would need to win the remaining vote by 35 points just to tie with Mamdani. And even if he did that Lander would tip it in reallocation. People are quickly gravitating toward the race being called.
Seems like a massive polling failure. My recollection is that basically nobody had Mamdani leading on the first ballot, most had him losing after everything was counted and I think the one or two pollsters who had him ahead in the final ballot had him up by like four points.
To 4, much to my surprise Brooklyn is majority white now.
Because of Williamsburg or whatever?
The poll sponsored by Don't Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor (DREAM) had Cuomo winning on the final ballot by four points.
I know he's annoying, but Nate Silver thinks it's over, which is good enough for me.
To 4, much to my surprise Brooklyn is majority white now.
Census QuickFacts says 50.0% white along, 37.2% white non-Hispanic/Latino.
23: Thanks for the correction! At any rate, pretty different from the Bronx?
Annoying that there's no general election polling yet. Does Adams have a chance against Mamdani?
25: Unlikely, most people will go with the Democratic nominee. Unless he's feeling too humiliated, Cuomo's likely to run independent & further split the rest of the vote with Adams and Sliwa.
I was convinced that Cuomo would beat Mamdani, on account of how we can't have nice things.
26: Ugh, Cuomo winning the general would be pretty heartbreaking.
Can we not kill joy before it can sprout.
Anyway, the air condition is back on.
If he couldn't win a plurality of Democratic voters, I don't think he's winning the general, folks.
65% of NYC voters are registered Democrats! And sure, plenty of them used to cross over for Bloomberg, but now multiple non-Dem candidates will be splitting that vote.
I forgot about Taniel
The Captain would be so hurt.
Does this mean that $35 million was gambled on the mayoral race?
21: Maybe that was a pro-Cuomo organization.
Curious how Cuomo did among voters who lived in NYC before February 2020.
Or rather, people who lived in NYC during pre-vaccine Covid, not people who might have moved and come back.
I am so, so happy. I can't think of the last happy election night I've had. Not just the actual result, but what it says about the NYC electorate.
In my ideal world, it would have been Lander, but I will take Mamdani, and I will absolutely take the rejection of Cuomo, with delight.
40: What made Mandan more successful than Lander? Only half of Lander's voters have to rank Mandani at number 2 for him to get to 50% on the second ballot.
Mamdani is a handsome, charismatic young man with excitingly aspirational policy ideas. Lander is a nebbishy dweeb with a sensible, temperamentally-but-not-politically conservative style. A hero, but a nebbishy dweeb. The people of NYC did not find him compelling.
Lander's active cooperation probably saved Mamdani, though. He really defanged all the attempted Mamdani-is-a-scary-antisemitic-Muslim attacks.
I have promised myself that whatever Lander runs for next, I'm maxing out my donation.
Not just the actual result, but what it says about the NYC electorate.
Are we allowed to generalize this even more? I think this demonstrates a surprising level of contempt for evil old white men in a way that could come to benefit everybody else.
But I'm really wondering what went wrong with the polls. It's not often that they are this wrong.
35: Looking at the comments there, I really think I understand part of what turns people like Silver into assholes. There's a lot of gloating about Silver getting the race wrong, and a general claim that Silver is often wrong, but Silver accurately reads and analyzes the polls, and polls offer useful insights. When your critics misunderstand your work, I suspect that it's easy to focus on the most inept criticisms and get sanctimonious about your superiority.
(Reason No. 1,548,922 why social media sucks.)
I'm eagerly awaiting someone to write the retrospective on polling for this race.
But it's probably going to be written by a Cuomo consultant with an axe to grind and not someone who knows what they are doing.
It's such a bummer that the more blue places accumulate evidence that ranked choice voting improves everything, the more stupid red states will kneejerk react against it.
On the plus side, I was legitimately shocked that Abbott vetoed the THC ban at the last possible second.
> What made Mandan more successful than Lander?
Like AOC and Trump, he's mastered viral social media to reach low-propensity and low-trust voters who don't pay attention to legacy media. I'd wager this is large part of explaining the polling errors (he also seems to have had a surge after the debate and endorsements that was too late to have been picked up in the polls).
> Are we allowed to generalize this even more? I think this demonstrates a surprising level of contempt for evil old white men in a way that could come to benefit everybody else.
Except Cuomo did better with Black voters and, at least in relative terms, with women than Mamdani. I feel like post-Trump education and low-trust/high-trust explains a lot more than other demographic categories. What seems novel about Mamdani's coalition is that he brought a swathe low-trust voters in while retaining educated and affluent liberals.
Educated liberals, how do they work?
Except Cuomo did better with Black voters and, at least in relative terms, with women than Mamdani.
Is that information from the polling?
Brooklyn Dem chair Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn switches to endorse Mamdani in the general. Hopefully Cuomo is going to be intimidated from running at all.
> Is that information from the polling?
For the Black vote, polling and precinct information.
For women, polling. I suspect because of the polling errors that Mamdani did better with women than he polled, but that he'll still have done relatively better with men than women.
Unless the polling errors are related the gender and race.
Conjunctions and definite articles, how do they work?
Hooking up words and putting them together.
Bookie Peter Thiel is now giving Cuomo 4% odds in the general, just over Sliwa at 3% and well under Adams's 20%.
Of course that is baking in the question of whether Cuomo runs at all.
I haven't done the math to see if this is plausible, but I wonder if Cuomo's overperformance with women is still there if you control for age. Again, haven't done the math, but aren't old voters disproportionately women because women live longer?
I haven't done the math to see if this is plausible, but I wonder if Cuomo's overperformance with women is still there if you control for age. Again, haven't done the math, but aren't old voters disproportionately women because women live longer?
Cuomo should be way ahead of Silwa. For one thing if for some reason Mamdani completely implodes between now and the election then Cuomo (who already has a line on the ballot!) will definitely jump back in and probably win.
Interesting that despite doing poorly with Black voters generally, Mamdani won nearly all of Harlem. (Of course Harlem has gotten less Black, but still it's a clear majority Black in most precincts.) I wonder if Harlem is substantially younger than other Black areas in NYC? Also richer.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/24/us/elections/nyc-mayor-primary-results-precinct-map.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/08/us/census-race-map.html
Cuomo won all the projects in Harlem though (the precincts at the top of Morningside park, the precincts just north of central park on Malcolm X).
Chalk one more up for post-racial voting, with the Black vote splitting on age and class rather than race itself being the major factor.
Also the ones up on 129th between 7th and 8th. The Harlem map is basically exactly "Cuomo wins the projects, Mamdani wins everything else."
Works elsewhere too, spot the projects in Chelsea!
Cuomo did do well with the rich-enough-to afford-50K-private-school precincts. Will be curious to see where they land in the general if he doesn't run.
Like Bloomberg, many of those voters hate both socialism and Trump, and Adams now stinks of Trump.
70: Yes, and also kinda amazing, even 35+ years after its release. Seeing it on a big screen was great.
That's playing in Pittsburgh in a few months, but I'd have to go clear to Lawrenceville.
If they'd just done another hour of bike sequences it would have been the best movie until Fury Road.
Yeah, there's definitely a U-shape to Cuomo's vote which you don't see in the demographics because $100k is too low a cutoff for the top bracket in NYC.
Schumer and Jeffries have endorsed Mamdani. I think it's over for Cuomo.
Or at least said very nice things & strongly implied an endorsement was forthcoming.
How long is it supposed to take to endorse the winner of the Democratic primary?
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https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-arrests-archbishop-over-alleged-coup-plot-2025-06-25/
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I believe Schumer and Jeffries didn't endorse at all in the primary -- which is bad enough, but it would be a spectacular failure for them to fail to endorse Mamdani now.
I don't think it's actually unreasonable for congressional leaders to stay out of a contested mayoral primary. They should definitely endorse him now though.
As long as it's a general principle, at least. I don't know if they've been involved in past races like this.
82-83: Yeah, that makes sense.
My uninformed guess is that congressional figures often issue endorsements within their states. But it's also true that my view is colored by my belief that Democratic politicians should not adopt a pose of neutrality -- or support! -- when it involves Andrew Cuomo. What the fuck could Bill Clinton possibly be thinking?
Probably feels guilty for not giving him a private elevator for his five cars.
Schumer too (both good endorsements)
Prominent New York business leaders who supported Andrew Cuomo are hoping he will drop out of the race completely after his humiliating loss in the Democratic mayoral primary, The Post has learned.
As the former governor has emergency meetings about his political future, at least one prominent business executive and Cuomo supporter reached out to the former governor Wednesday morning and gently nudged him to reconsider staying in the race for the good of the city, The Post has learned.
Other supporters from the city's business community plan to do so imminently, they say.
According to the same article, Cuomo is telling the same leaders that Adams is a lot more likely to go down in flames than he is ("could falter in the face of additional scrutiny over his ethical conduct") so Adams should be the one to drop out for the good of the city.
Randomly floated through my feed a few minutes ago: "you're all jubilant but right now some poor intern at the adl has to log every zohran vote as a unique incident of antisemitism"
89: Cuomo tells the big money entirely plausibly that he is less scandalous than the other big money candidate, and the best the Republicans can cough up is Curtis Sliwa. This is US politics in a nutshell.
Sliwa ran unopposed for the GOP mayoral nomination!
Cuomo is fully out: https://nypost.com/2025/06/25/us-news/andrew-cuomo-to-drop-nyc-mayoral-bid-after-blistering-primary-defeat-to-zohran-mamdani-cant-run-a-loser/
94: Wow, that article is catastrophic for Cuomo, both in what it says and the mere fact that it exists and ran in the Post(!). Seems like a very clear message to him from both the big money people and Murdoch that they won't bail him out if he tries to run in the general.
"Mamdani did best in racially mixed districts, while Cuomo did best in precincts which were >80% white or <10% white." https://bsky.app/profile/diplomatofnight.com/post/3lshw5ojuss2a
The Post Editorial Board calls on Cuomo to drop out.
94, 97
LOL
Adams is already battling Sliwa for the crazy asshole vote, they don't want it to splinter further with Cuomo jumping in.
My neighborhood was covered in Adams signs back in 2022 but didn't have a single Cuomo sign. I did see a few Mamdani signs in local businesses. I personally probably received about $5 million in anti-Mamdani mailers from Cuomo's superpac. The only thing they convinced me to do is never use doordash.
Don't tell the Post or Bloomberg this SUPER SECRET TOP STRATEGY, but Mamdani would be REALLY SCARED if Anthony Weiner ran as an independent candidate. If he used the tag line, "I wish I were an Oscar Mayor Weiner," Mamdani would really be toast.
84: Hillary was smart enough not to. Except I. A situation like Harris where they both endorsed quickly together, I think Bill does not have great political instincts for today.
Apparently Gillibrand is telegraphing she doesn't want to endorse Mamdani. So not a done deal by virtue of being an elected Democrat.
Such a low bar that even Schumer managed to clear. What is going on with her?
Has Schumer endorsed? I think the current state of play is that he has said nice things and promised to meet with Mamdani.
Yes, which telegraphs an endorsement in the same way Gillibrand has telegraphed a non-endorsement.
It was a very good endorsement, I'll admit to being very pleasantly surprised
Kalshi has added Cuomo as another independent option alongside Adams for NYC general winner.
Democratic nominee: 72% (down from ~90% before Mamdani's surge)
Adams: 21%
Cuomo: 5%
Republican nominee: 3%
Polymarker similar: 73%, 18%, 3%, 1%. Although I wonder how much that is people who previously bought Adams refusing to reevaluate by selling.
Why are the anti-Mamdani rich people having such a hard time finding alternatives who are not harassers, corrupt, or* losers? Their money really can't buy someone better?
*Not mutually exclusive.
You're paying for a candidate. That limits you to corrupt at the start.
You'd think in the entire city, they could find someone who hadn't been caught.
I think if Cuomo hadn't run they'd have found a perfectly fine candidate. The problem is that a lot of rich people were afraid to publicly challenge Cuomo exactly because he's corrupt.
"I feel like people misunderstood my $250,000 for Cuomo for real enthusiasm," Gorton told the Times. "It was basically, 'Oh, looks like Cuomo is coming back. We don't want to be shut out. Let's try and get on his good side.'"
101 et seq: It's nice to see Gillibrad's pander get walked back a bit by her staff. I think the staff -- maybe prodded by the public -- are trying to teach her something here.
It'll be interesting to see how Mamdani governs. The combination of his cross-endorsements and the way he's successfully consolidating support from the party and unions, makes me hopeful that like AOC (and unlike some of the rest of the squad) he knows how to operate in a smart way within the party while staying on the left side of the party.
110: That's how they know he's for sale.
108: I had a similar thought -- why not coalesce behind any of the other candidates?
111 and 113 are an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, you've got influential people who follow politics like weather vanes. On the other hand, you've got a bunch of rabid weasels who will do anything they can -- even at personal cost -- to sabotage Mamdani.
So Mamdani has a problem that AOC does not have. The NYPD, for instance, is going to have a lot more influence on Mamdani's career than AOC's.
I'm not optimistic. Mamdani's election was absolutely necessary, but I don't expect him to get the opportunity to dispel the underlying rot in NY politics. Cuomo's appeal was legitimate in the sense that the sewer is his home, and maybe he's less repugnant than some of the other rats. (In a ranked choice system, I think I'd put him ahead of Adams! And certainly ahead of Sliwa.)
All that said, Mandani's nomination really is a hopeful development, and it's quite possible that he'll have a real impact.
Why are the anti-Mamdani rich people having such a hard time finding alternatives who are not harassers, corrupt, or* losers?
I'm tanned, rested, and ready.
Did Elliot Spitzer have any drawbacks?
I think Mamdani is going to need Lander's help.
I don't know enough about NYC politics, and I'm annoyed that Hochul is calling raising taxes on billionaires an affordability crisis because they might move to Florida. Maura Healey is pulling the same shit about our millionaire's tax.
Rent control is pretty divisive. I used to be pretty against, and now I don't know enough to understand it, but I think medium-sized landlords can be a powerful force in state and local government. Hell, a lot of state legislators in MA own rental property and have prevented Boston from having any kind of rent control for ages.
I do think free MTA or at least buses are a fantastic idea. With buses, it also makes things move more quickly. Forcing bus drivers to collect fares makes that job less attractive and makes it harder for people to board the bus. Universal childcare is also great. I think the coalition for those might be a decent size.
they might move to Florida.
I hear Florida is building some brand new housing complexes in proximity to nature. Maybe it's just one complex. A concentration, even.
117: It didn't get as much attention as Cuomo, but Weiner also attempted a comeback this election by running for a city council seat. He also lost by a big margin.
NYC no longer does rent control proper but does have rent stabilization, where rent rise percentages for a large chunk of apartments are set by a city council. One big source of anger is that Adams was very pro landlord and rents increases under Adams were way larger than under DeBlasio. It's not exactly apples to apples because we also had inflation but it's a huge source of Adams's unpopularity. I believe what Mamdani is campaigning on is temporarily freezing increases via the city rent board for the next year or so, not permanently eliminating rent increases or creating a new class of rent controlled apartments. He likely also will expand the criteria for rent stabilized apartments.
If we're going to have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, we should also have some kind of moderate rent stabilization that lets people stay in their house even if the market changes. Moving sucks.
119: I think we had rent control here, but a ballot referendum state-wide got rid of it in the 90s. We don't even have rent stabilization. I think there were some issues with people not maintaining certain properties at the time.
123: Ontario, Canada where they do not have 30-year mortgages, does have some rent stabilization. The way it works is that any rental property built before a certain date can only increase the rent a certain amount that is tied to inflation. Buildings built after that date, including all new buildings can charge whatever they want. Every now and again politicians move forward the year after which something falls into the "not new" category. I think this provides some stability and doesn't disincentivize production.
"I have a housing-price stabilization system, but you wouldn't know it. It's from Canada."
I heard Mamdani refused to condemn the slogan "stabilize the intifada."
"Free Palestine, with purchase of greater or equal Palestine."
125: It's just interesting to me that Canada never chose to stabilize home ownership for more than 5 years at a time. Though home ownership has the same sociological importance there as it does in the US.