You're overrating the import of this. Weigel's piece says that final polls track the actual vote. It seems entirely possible that, by the time election day rolls around, people who won't vote for Obama because he's black will have found another reason not to vote for him.
No disagreement until comment 3! The SCMT Rule.
Although you make a good point. Someone needs to take a look at the numbers from, say, the month preceding the election and up to it to see if there's a consistent trend away from the black candidate.
I think of the 1990 Gant/Helms race, when I think of "the Wilder effect." Helms won that race 52.5% to 47.4% (according to Wikipedia), but as I recall, the pre-election polls favored Gant.
4: Yeah, I remember that race. But Jesse Helms was a political force in North Carolina like none other. "You may not agree with him, but you know where he stands" won him his last three elections (vs. Hunt, Gantt and Gantt), and I'm not sure that any real or perceived "Wilder effect" was in play.
Oh, and the post title made me think of Jerry Maguire.
I thought of Gantt too, but then I realized that that was 16 years ago.
How about if everyone started refusing to answer polls, or answered them randomly? If polls become unreliable enough candidates will actually have to think about and take reasonably firm positions on a variety of issues early on instead of sticking their statistical thermometers (or other organs of measurement) up electorate asses every week.
How about if everyone started refusing to answer polls, or answered them randomly?
The sound you hear is thousands of statistical researchers weeping.
How about if everyone started refusing to answer polls, or answered them randomly?
That was Mike Royko's advice.
Nobody fills out the correct demographical data on those online statistics-collectors, right?
I always thought the Wilder effect was to be wildly unpredictable and willing to stab your closest political allies in the back, while still maintaining the veneer of fiscal responsibility.
10: There are a whole lot of newspapers out there who believe I'm a 104 year old man who's interested in firearms and ballet.
Threadjack but I think this is hilarious.
Janet Jackson she ain't.
10: I try to guess the most desired demographic and then answer the way I'd like all those people to answer. For example: Big spending professional who dislikes SUVs, wants sports car with gun rack option.
I mentioned this over at Henley's blog, but the comments on that post creep me the fuck out. One of the many things that make Henley the Internet's Best Libertarian™ (sorry, Balko) is the fact that he's willing to at least postulate that the reason there are race problems in America doesn't boil down to "African-Americans are lazy and looking for a handout like the statist parasites they are". Yeesh.
But . . . how does this apply to Obama?
10: I think I do.
I think I may not be getting it, but the Obama application of the Wilder Effect would be that his supposed positives and popularity has to be discounted. If there is no Wilder Effect, or if it's diminishing, then Obama's support can be taken at face value.
I fill them out randomly--with the result that I never remember my log-ins, of course.
The importance of this study would be to nullify THAT rationale for deciding Obama were "unelectable."
Only reading the blurb here and at Henley's place, if I remember correctly, there are some variations that may be important in going through the data. The most important would be that people would be happy to vote for a black person, but not for the top job - Governor or President. Not sure if that makes a difference, but from the excerpt it did not seem like that was taken into account.
Following up on snarkout, this comment at H&R (?) is as close to self-refuting as you can get:
It's that much easier for blacks to play victim and leech off the rest of us as long as they're perpetuating the theory that the US would never vote for a black presidential candidate.
Wilder and Gantt were both in southern states. It wouldn't surprise me to find the effect still operative there. Obama's not likely to be trying to carry many southern states, anyway, though.
Except Florida.
Wilder and Gantt were both in southern states. It wouldn't surprise me to find the effect still operative there. Obama's not likely to be trying to carry many southern states, anyway, though.
I don't know. It's possible that Massachusetts and Ohio might be more progressive on race than Virginia and North Carolina, but I doubt there's that much of a difference.