Re: Not Quite

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So zip codes with homes in the bottom price range, which is $6-700k around here

You people are disgusting.


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:21 AM
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Don't hate us because we can't afford a place to bathe.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:23 AM
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So zip codes with homes in the bottom price range, which is $6-700k around here,

It's one thing to know intellectually that property values and cost of living varies widely from one place to another, but it's quite another to see $600,000-$700,000 described as the bottom price range. I thought I'd misread it at first.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:26 AM
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3: Those people better not be getting SCHIP.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:29 AM
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$600-700K will get you a frickin' mansion in Durham.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:37 AM
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I'm pretty much resigned to never owning a place if I keep living out here.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:39 AM
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I browsed some $500-750 K listings in my town, and they're all sitting on 15 acres or so.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:41 AM
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Ha. Make that 15-50 acres.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:42 AM
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It can't be a good sign when the local paper's new real estate feature is to track foreclosures.

But it happened in the early 90's. Recall 'HUD homes'.

since people take more risks to buy the only home they can afford than they do to buy a nicer home than they can afford.

Hrmm. Maybe: those people also get shittier loan terms, less forgiveness for fucking up (which makes no sense) and are more likely to lack a cushion to tide them over. But that's only to begin with. The people who will be having problems with their 700k homes are eating their cushions right now.

Despite all this, I don't see prices coming down at all, so this isn't even the bounty for the fiscally righteous that one might have hoped.

Hrmm. I don't see any trading down going on yet. When the 700k'ers finally capitulate and try and trade down to a house that's up on foreclosure sale, that's when the slaughter starts. We lack the panic neccessary to really lower prices.

max
['This is going to take at least three more years to unwind.']


Posted by: max | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:45 AM
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7, 8: You looking to start a farm or something? I think you and Jammies would make a goodlooking "American Gothic" couple.

Or maybe "American Goth".


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:45 AM
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So zip codes with homes in the bottom price range, which is $6-700k around here

To be fair, that's not absolute rock bottom, that's just bottom for people in close-in areas who shop at Whole Foods.

REAL rock bottom is $400-$500,000, maybe $100k less than that for a condo, which I doubt makes y'all think higher of our sanity.

The areas where the most new houses have been built in, say, the last 5 years (eastern Contra Costa county) have absolutely jaw-dropping foreclosure rates -- one zip code in Antioch alone had 271 foreclosures in July and August.

I heard Stockton is worse, with some ridiculous percentage of houses in foreclosure, but I'm too lazy to look up exact stats right now.


Posted by: Magpie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:46 AM
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Just wait, Ogged. Inventory is building, many markets have a six month supply or more. Once the lenders have an "unacceptable" amount of REO property on their books the regulators will force a fire sale, then it's Katie bar the door.

Lenders look to the most recent sales comps to determine the loan to value ratio they will accept. A couple of low sales in a neighborhood will destroy the value of the rest on paper. Only a problem if you have to sell at that time. Give the market another six months and you will see 10%- 15% price reductions at all levels of the market. Of course, you will need to put actual cash down also. No money down loans are gone, for now.


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:47 AM
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Home prices rarely go down much. People get it in their heads that their home is worth so much (or owe that much) and won't sell for less. Instead, they just stay in the house, so home prices stay flat for a while.

5: Before moving to Durham, I was also considering Santa Barbara. Just for kicks, I pulled up the MLS listings for both. The cheapest in Santa Barbara was a trailer for 400K. 400K in Durham could get you in to Treyburn.


Posted by: ptm | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:47 AM
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10: I was just curious to see if there was anything that would fetch that much money in San Marcos.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:47 AM
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REAL rock bottom is $400-$500,000, maybe $100k less than that for a condo

Really? Where? Oh, ok, I see your link. Richmond? Don't you have to account for your medical bills when you're inevitably shot?


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:48 AM
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14: Whoa. Don't you teach math? Like, I should know you I think.


Posted by: m. leblanc | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:48 AM
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When the 700k'ers finally capitulate and try and trade down to a house that's up on foreclosure sale, that's when the slaughter starts.

Once the 700kers move in, the d7ugpus7ers are next, and then the whole neighborhood goes to rot.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:49 AM
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16: You're from San Marcos?


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:50 AM
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Well, no, but, I went to school there, and got a degree in math in 2004...


Posted by: m. leblanc | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:51 AM
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No kidding! I was at UT from 2000-2006. I don't actually teach at SWT (aka Texas State) but at a little college south of there.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:53 AM
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UT for grad school.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:54 AM
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OH! Ok, I was going to say, that would be bizarre. Yeah, Texas State is my lovely alma mater. And by lovely, I mean lame.


Posted by: m. leblanc | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 9:55 AM
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And it's fall, which means the football players at Texas State are once again bagging groceries at HEB, in full uniform, in the most comically unenthusiastic mandatory attempt to drum up team spirit among the locals.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:03 AM
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Jesus fuck. 150 grand got you a really nice place in a yuppiehood back in my home town.


Posted by: strasmangelo | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:05 AM
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No longer jonesing, eh stras?


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:07 AM
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23: My condolences. All I have to put up with is pathetic emails. Oh, and high school kids fundrasing.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:10 AM
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I bet you're regretting that one sentence, eh Ogged?

I decided to look up what kind of properties were available here in the second city at those kinds of prices, and even while restricting my search to very good neighborhoods and places over 1800 sq. feet, there were some nice options. These are all steps from the best mass transit, the best restaurants, nice stores, Whole Foods for all your yuppie needs, and craploads of other nice stuff in one of the biggest developed world cities.

Y'all got hosed, but how did it happen so badly?


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:11 AM
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Y'all got hosed, but how did it happen so badly?

It's the weather.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:15 AM
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27 - Financial services -- not on a New York or London scale, but proportionally more than Chicago (BarCap is based out of SF, hedge funds, etc.) -- and Silicon Valley money spillover, and severe geographic limitations on where you can build. Voila! A city where no secretaries or mechanics can afford to live.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:17 AM
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My parents' home would sell now for $150,000. Stupid rising costs of housing means if I want a house I will end up moving in across the street from my mother.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:20 AM
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"y'all got hosed"

yeah, let's hear what you say in february when your car gets stuck behind a snowbank after the plows go by. go bulls!
visit california: you'll see that it didn't get over-crowded for nothing.


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:21 AM
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30: My sisters place went up 200,000 in *three* years. I won't be living across the street from any of them.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:23 AM
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It's the weather.

visit california: you'll see that it didn't get over-crowded for nothing.

Still no excuse. This is somewhere actually livable, with stores, parks, mass transit and everything, and the weather is better than anywhere else I've been in the world, including large portions of the tropics. I bet the extra $100,000 you save could pay for a good immigration lawyer with change left over, especially since their point system for immigration will favor all you overeducated people.


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:32 AM
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Suburbs are gross.


Posted by: strasmangelo jones | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:35 AM
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34 is exactly right.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:36 AM
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33--
what? live in a foreign country? surrounded by foreigners?
ridiculous. in that case, i'd have no guarantee of living in a republican form of government under the rule of law with full due process rights.


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:38 AM
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Stockton is worse, with some ridiculous percentage of houses in foreclosure

No doubt. My dad's place cost $80k when he bought it about ten years ago; it's a very small two bedroom in a blue collarish neighborhood. Last year houses on his block were selling for 400k. Plus Stockton just does not have a lot of high wage jobs.

I remember when y'all were giving me shit about my housing woes. Hmm? Anyhoo, we're sorta toying with the idea of seeing if we can get into a forecloure or short sale--dunno about the bay area, but housing costs around here do seem to be dropping. I've started seeing the asking prices on places that were in the 550s and up dropping below 500, and there are a ton of houses that have been sitting on the market in the few blocks right around PK's school....


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:39 AM
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under the rule of law with full due process rights

cool... where can I find that?


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:43 AM
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Who gave you shit?


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:43 AM
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37: I'm sure there are deals to be had soon (not yet, maybe) all over the country --- but mostly if you have a decent down payment.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:44 AM
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B's confusing the shit she got at her own site with the shit she didn't get here.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:44 AM
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Here's my theory: we need to start taxing the shit out of second homes and single-family houses that aren't people's primary residence. I'm sure we can work in some kind of cap or breaks for independent landlords who own small apartment complexes, if we need to, but I swear to god a big part of the problem is all the people who buy second or third houses to flip or rent at silly prices.

That, and fuck the people who own second houses that sit empty in expensive beach or vacation areas.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:44 AM
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40 was me.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:44 AM
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Man am I glad to have bought somewhat before the last, huge gasp of bubble expansion. Our place appreciated 40 percent between the time we signed the papers and the time they finished building it and we moved in.


Posted by: Gonerill | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:45 AM
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In Elgin, ND, 20 UPC symbols from cereal boxes and a bag of shiny beads is a decent down payment.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:46 AM
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41--
exactly, b.
here's it's a non-judgemental love-fest of non-shit giving.
unlike your place, which is a gladiatorial arena of hate-speech.

(wait--is the opposite of shit-giving "non-shit giving"? or "not giving a shit"?)


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:46 AM
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Oh, well, the people are her site were nuts. If you only cut out Netflix, you'd own your own home in 100 years! I own my own home and my husband only makes six figures in the midwest! We did it all by not renting videos! Suck it, lady, you have no clue.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:46 AM
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Here's my theory: we need to start taxing the shit out of second homes and single-family houses that aren't people's primary residence.

B doesn't understand the power of the Invisible Hand.


Posted by: snarkout | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:49 AM
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is the opposite of shit-giving "non-shit giving"? or "not giving a shit"?

We have communal shit. From each according to their anus, to each according to their blowhardiness.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:49 AM
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39, 41: Oh, I think there were a few pissy comments about my not being interested in buying a condo.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:51 AM
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the opposite of shit-giving

...is shit-taking.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:54 AM
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Eh, in defense of the folks at my site, I think a lot more of them are barely-making-it parent types and Devoted Lefties. But, well, yeah. Sigh.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:54 AM
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....aaaand an off-the-cuff aside of mine seems, once again, to have derailed the thread. People, when are you going to learn to ignore those?


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:56 AM
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the opposite of shit-giving

...is shit taking.

Which isn't quite the same as taking the piss.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:56 AM
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the opposite of shit-giving
...is shit-taking.

Are we back to that cup video again now?


Posted by: Gonerill | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:56 AM
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Nah, taking the piss and shit-giving are pretty much the same thing.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:56 AM
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Nah, taking the piss and shit-giving are pretty much the same thing.

Right. But not shit taking.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:57 AM
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With regards to her plan to discourage ownership of vacation homes, B has clearly come under the sway of Big Hotel.


Posted by: washerdreyer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:57 AM
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57: don't knock it 'till you've tried it


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:59 AM
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$600-700K will get you a frickin' mansion in Durham Elgin, N.D.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:00 AM
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58: Certainly not: "The idea of stealing feces [...] to work sorcery is prevalent in many parts of the world."

In those parts of the world, $600K will buy you an entire village.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:01 AM
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56--
wrong. giving people shit comes in two varieties, affectionate and abusive.
taking the piss is always affectionate, or teasing at worst.

i mean, a complete screaming confrontation with resultant violence could be summarized by saying 'this jerk was giving me shit, so i busted him one.'

but violence would never be thought to be justified by a piss-take.


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:02 AM
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Looks like Elgin, ND is one of those parts of the world.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:02 AM
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64--
bumper-sticker:
"i visited elgin, nd, and they stole my feces."


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:03 AM
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but violence would never be thought to be justified by a piss-take.

The piss-take is a relatively unexplored comedic technique.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:04 AM
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62: Fair enough, but someone who busts another person for giving them shit is an unjustified asshole--and I bet there are assholes who'll beat you up for piss-taking as well.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:06 AM
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I got the shit beaten out of me for giving some guy shit. Now I have no shit at all.


Posted by: Cryptic Ned | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:08 AM
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67: Not to mention the post-beatdown sorcery.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:08 AM
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The shittake is tasty!


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:08 AM
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but violence would never be thought to be justified by a piss-take

My anger at this can be volcanic, though. I've never hit anybody but I've often walked away without a word and left the premises.


Posted by: I don't pay | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:19 AM
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Then IDP returned late at night and stole their feces.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:21 AM
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66--
no, no--that's my point.
an amount of abuse that could actually *justify* the escalation to violence could still be called "shit-giving".
i mean, imagine some situation in which you would be justified in punching someone in the face, e.g. they were making credible threats of imminent violence against you, you could still later say "look, the guy was giving me a raft of shit, so i hit him."

but not so with "taking the piss". if someone wanted to back down from a confrontation, they might say "don't get so worked up! i'm only taking a piss, didn't mean anything by it."


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:30 AM
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72 ime, that's not the case


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:37 AM
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but violence would never be thought to be justified by a piss-take

O RLY?


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:38 AM
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74--
now *that* is funny.
i mean, when combined with b's judgment in 66:
"I bet there are assholes who'll beat you up for piss-taking as well."

maybe you're right, b, but surely you and i don't know anyone like that.


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:41 AM
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When employment is relatively strong, it means that people can continue to pay their mortgages and not make job-related moves, keeping downward price pressure limited. But of course, Americans move for various reasons. What happens is that every time there's a blip up in the market because of low supply, a ton of pent-up supply goes onto the market, making a long time before a lasting recovery.


Posted by: terpbball | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:43 AM
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1 to 49, 51, 55, 61, 64, 65, 69, and 71.


Posted by: Merganser | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:49 AM
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77--
calling me disgusting, eh?
that's alright--i know you're just taking the piss out of us.


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 11:55 AM
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i know you're just taking the piss out of us.

You're giving it away, kid.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 12:03 PM
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Taking the piss can sometimes lead to trouble with the law.


Posted by: Cryptic Ned | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 12:07 PM
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80: Indeed.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 12:41 PM
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So do any Americans out there actually use the phrase "take the piss" in conversation? I only learned it recently in an Australian context.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 12:47 PM
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We're not seeing a big uptick in foreclosures yet here, supposedly because most people who have somehow managed to pay insane prices without resorting to crazy mortgage structures. We'll see. Asking prices do seem a bit less aspirational than they were six months ago, but still crazy.


Posted by: Not Prince Hamlet | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 1:38 PM
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Housing prices in places like Antioch have fallen. It doesn't happen in the Bay Area often, but it does happen.


Posted by: Magpie | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 1:39 PM
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82: None that I've ever met.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 1:43 PM
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Careful, Minivet, I think apo's just winding you up.


Posted by: M/tch M/lls | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 2:06 PM
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OT: The guy who wrote the second article referenced here is visiting my class tomorrow. I wonder if Unfogged wants me to ask anything.


Posted by: destroyer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 4:06 PM
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The 3-bedroom, totally-redone with new roof and furnace house across the street just went off the market after 4 months and a drop in asking price from $175 to $142. And not only that, but the sellers were beyond desperate -- a trio of Mexican guys who had been fixing up and flipping houses in order to take the profits south of the border. One of them had already given up and moved back to Mexico, presumably minus most of his investment. Really sucks for them, and what's worse is that I don't think we're anywhere near full capitulation yet in this market. There's still a few luxury condos under construction, even though they're a drug on the market (I mean honestly! How many people would really pay a million dollars to live in downtown Mpls?) So I don't see things bottoming out here for at least 18 months, barring some kind of huge economic ramp up.

I wouldn't live in LA on a bet (no offense, ΒΦΔ). And the Bay is certainly amazing, but I'm not willing to commit the kind of great crime that would lead to the great fortune necessary to buy a small house there. Plus, cold winters keep the riff-raff out. Except for me.


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 4:57 PM
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minneapolitan I could see you fitting right in up in Arcata.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:02 PM
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89. Does the Arcata Eye still publish the police logs in verse?


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:05 PM
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90: sometimes. They're certainly always hilarious, and also online.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:07 PM
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Hey, a two bedroom condo on my street. Only $699k.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:13 PM
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Which is insanity, but it's group insanity.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:15 PM
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minneapolitan I could see you fitting right in up in Arcata.
I had a lesbian hippy environmentalist friend in college from Humboldt county. Parts of the experience sounded fun. Last I heard she was working for the Calif. DOC&R though, so that was weird.


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:20 PM
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Around here or in parts of California, that would look like a hell of a bargain.


Posted by: Not Prince Hamlet | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:21 PM
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They're certainly always hilarious
Hmm, they sure have a bit of a problem with illicit bongo drumming up there, don't they? I wonder why that could be.


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:25 PM
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I had a lesbian hippy environmentalist friend in college from Humboldt county. Parts of the experience sounded fun.

Humboldt's gorgeous, but anywhere near the coast I can't get over the feeling that Mother Nature is doing everything in her power to wipe the human presence from the face of the earth.

The contrast between the locals scraping by and the hippies also makes me uncomfortable.


Posted by: Josh | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:25 PM
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My sister went to Humboldt. Now she's a professional horse masseuse.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:38 PM
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82--
oh, no, no. it's entirely a uk affectation, i believe.
certainly so for 'take the mickey', not to mention 'extract the michael', which is uk, arch, and twee all at once.


Posted by: kid bitzer | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 5:40 PM
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I once went trick or treating in Richmond with a friend who lived there. I was probably 8 or 9.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 6:15 PM
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Almost on topic.


Posted by: Not Prince Hamlet | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 7:05 PM
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If you cannot afford a house, get a second job house sitting in an investor owned McMansion.

Previously on Unfogged: the coming bonanza for squatters.
http://www.unfogged.com/archives/comments_7321.html#606953

Actually, this dichotomy narrative --
house prices are soooo high I can't buy; prices are soo low nobody will sell.
There is a shortage and no supply; and ghost towns full of foreclosures. --

evokes memories of Enron, which made sooo much money gaming the California electricity
market that it went bankrupt.




Posted by: Econolicious aka Anonymous D | Link to this comment | 10-15-07 10:47 PM
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42: Unlike B, I don't see the people who own a second home up in Tahoe as a significant part of the problem. Sure, if they sell it there would theoretically be another house available, but the jobs aren't located up there, and not many people want to commute from there. House flippers may contribute to the problem, but a lot of them are likely to lose their shirts in the present market even without tax penalties to discourage them.

I think Prop 13 is a much bigger part of the problem, because it gives people who've owned a place for a while a strong incentive to stay put. If we were to sell our place and buy the similar place down the block, our taxes would more than double. That tends to make the market a lot thinner than it would normally be, so a small increase in demand can drive prices up a lot faster than would occur in a broader market (e.g., you get 4 people bidding against each other for 1 house, instead of 8 people bidding on 5 houses, which would spread out the impact). In theory, you would also expect prices to come down faster when demand drops off, but there are a lot of rachet effects in the market that keep that from happening quickly.


Posted by: DaveW | Link to this comment | 10-16-07 4:11 AM
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This is going to be a bigger problem than has been recognized.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
"market clearing" is a nice way of saying lots of forced bankrutcies.


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 10-17-07 12:26 PM
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105

104: much, much bigger, yes. It's going to take years to really play out, too.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 10-17-07 12:28 PM
horizontal rule