And pre-caucus polls have him about tied with Hillary in New Hampshire, so he has a very good chance to win that, too. This ain't so good for my man Edwards, however.
Good, if someone runs the table it means I don't have to make up my mind for Feb. 5.
NPR is telling me that Clinton's support came overwhelmingly from the over-65 set, and Obama's support came from younger voters, especially under-30 voters who turned out in unusual numbers.
Fucksake, I must say I don't quite understand why I'm not hearing anything about Edwards.
My man Edwards is talking right now, and, golly, I just like him. And I am a bitter, miserable woman, who likes no one.
I'm suspecting Clinton will try to spin this as she wasn't running that much in Iowa anyway.
I'll take odds right now that Richardson has a better chance at Veep than Edwards.
Are you folks watching Edwards right now? He really is good. It, foolishly and fleetingly, makes me feel good.
"We're better than this."
He's got veep locked O-dog.
You really think Obama picks Edwards for VP? I'd be very impressed, but I'm very skeptical.
the turnout is way higher than the previous record with a whole bunch of first time caucus-ers.
not much gender gap. And man, is Iowa white.
really really nice speech by Edwards.
Oh maybe that's optimistic. Can't think of another appropriate southern white dude besides Bill.
Some past Iowa Dem results:
04 Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18,
00 Gore 63, Bradley 37
96 Clinton (Unopposed)
92 Harkin 76, Uncommitted 12, Tsongas 4, Clinton 3
88 Gephardt 31, Simon 27, Dukakis 22.
About a third of Republicans interviewed before they cast their votes cited illegal immigration as the most important issue facing the country, followed by the economy and terrorism.
Going to stuff you with green cards, bitches.
What the hell are you talking about, Becks? You're not even registered to vote.
Is there anyone here qualified to offer an opinion?
I had one friend who flew in to volunteer for Obama, another friend who caucused for Edwards and the latter friends' mother, who caucused for Biden in the same precinct. The Obama friend tried to convince my friend's mom to recaucus with Obama, but she was inclined to go with her son; in the end, she stuck it out for her guy despite her son trying to physically pull her away. Biden won Dodd's people and escaped with a delegate.
For the first time since the whenever breakout convention speech, if given the opportunity, I will listen to Obama tonight. I haven't listened to any speeches by the other two, understand. I don't like being influenced by charisma. I can be fooled.
Maybe after listening my eyes will go all whirlpool and I will go hug a Republican.
Marx would have voted for Obama, Bob.
I understand that Edwards has made clear that he won't run for VP again. In Salon, I think.
BTW, Guiliani 4%. There's not running in Iowa, and then there's no one wanting you to be president. Bye bye, Rudy.
I don't trust Edwards to BURN SHIT DOWN if need be.
Oh maybe that's optimistic. Can't think of another appropriate southern white dude besides Bill.
Phil Bredesen, Governor of Tennessee. You heard it here first.
21 gets it right.
I think the last two SAusagly posts have been very encouraging too.
Obama won with an anti-trial lawyer, anti-SS, anti-health care mandate stance. Woot. Unify this.
I can just picture Obama considering that point. "Hmmm...which one of these people will BURN SHIT DOWN?"
I can just picture Obama considering that point. "Hmmm...which one of these people will BURN SHIT DOWN?"
Obama isn't going to get any single-issue anti-Mexican votes anyway, he might as well choose Subcomandante Marcos.
So now Hillary is recasting herself as a populist/progressive. Ha.
The Iowa system really is just so goofy and arcane that the combination of getting all into the horse race of it and feeling that it's totally fake gives it a sort of giggly model UN vibe for me. It's a civics-class nerdfest.
28: I know, right? I'm dying listening to her speech now. Good. Run left, H!
25:No.
Obama won with kids and idealists, people who don't have history or want to transcend history. I don't hate those who voted for Obama. I do wish they'd get off my fucking lawn.
29: Haha, RTFS! Model UN is exactly right.
26:
The answer, of course, is Gravel. We know he isn't busy, at least.
BTW, Guiliani 4%. There's not running in Iowa, and then there's no one wanting you to be president. Bye bye, Rudy.
Bill Clinton got 3% in Iowa in '92.
Actually, given history, I should probably make sure my neighbors know that when we say "BURN SHIT DOWN" we are talking about the other people's shit this time.
Guiliani
The thing about this is that if you look at it, it's clear that it would be pronounced "Ghee-liani", and we all know it isn't pronounced that way. So BLARF.
28: Are you making a funny?
Are you listening to her speech?
A funny(ish) comparison. No elaborate UN black helicopter jokes or anything.
33: Well, not to speak for ogged, but her concession speech was way more populist than I've heard her in forever.
I never watch network TV, but I just turned on NBC Boston, and holy shit insane NH targeted ads. Ron Paul had an anti-immigration ad that was almost as over the top ad Rudy's terrorism ad. "No student visas for terrorist nations!" Suck it, Persia!
Chuck Norris is standing behind Huckabee.
Huckabee, nuts as he is, is really goddamn likable. If, by some miracle, he gets the R nomination, I don't think he's going to be as weak as folks have been saying.
46: Chuck Norris doesn't stand behind Huckabee. Huckabee kneels in front of Chuck Norris.
47 - Just remember who called it first. Almost a year ago, in fact.
Huckabee & Obama could have quite an earnest-off.
He needs to get that Hollywood blonde out from behind him. Chuck's wife? Anyway, distracting.
If only Biden could have dropped out first!
How long do you think Richardson will stick it out? It's wishful thinking, i know, but maybe some of his anti-war supporters will break for Edwards.
The slogan behind Huckabee ("I Like Mike") was the slogan for my campaign for SGA president in 6th grade. I lost.
Anybody watching numbers? Did McCain really get 3rd with 13% or are they skipping over people for Village purposes? 34 Huck 25 Romney, 13 McCain leaves 28 out there.
The thing about Huckabee is that I don't think he can win, but I like where he moves the center to on lunchbox issues. Universal health care sounds much more reasonable when even your opponent concedes that poor people exist and are important. So I'm rooting for him in the primaries.
Wait, Chuck Norris really is standing behind Huckabee?
So Dodd is out, but, as per 35, Clinton only got 3% of Iowa in 1992. So what is the significance of Iowa, exactly, and what, if anything, does any of this mean?
I'm trying to play along, and I'm pretty sure I could pass the citizenship exam in my sleep, but I honestly do not understand the intricacies of the American primaries system.
Damn, Huckabee is kind of a good speaker.
Yeah, either Clinton or Obama vs. Huckabee would be weirdness indeed.
Listening to Huckabee now, you know, he just sounds less wingnut than most.
55: Thompson was running super-close to McCain, with 12 or 13. So that leaves about 15 for the rest, I suppose.
Err, wait. CNN has Thompson ahead of McCain now. So, yeah.
McCain has pulled ahead of Thompson for third by about 40 votes.
57: No, Huckabee stands in front of Chuck Norris.
The GK Chesterton reference was pretty good.
Bob: CNN reports:
Huckabee 34
Romney 25
Thompson 14
McCain 13
Paul 10
Giuliani 4
Hunter 0
So no, he's 4th place.
Oh, this is where the caucus thread has been hiding. Boy, I'm a huge dork.
Chuck Norris is 67 years old.
Who's that woman anyway? Chuck Norris is not currently married.
Yeah, Huckabee freaks me out a little because he actually sounds to me a bit like Bush was always supposed to: likeable, folksy, compassionate, etc.
Some NPR commentator has just remarked that Huckabee has the Repub VP slot sewn up. (quoting)
I would be happier for Obama if this wasn't viewed as a victory for the Beltway Heathers—who when the time comes, won't do a fucking thing to counter an August Swift Boats type racially-coded well-financed drug smear*. Hate the motherfuckers, they have almost made me a Hilary supporter.
*Maybe they will if it is Huckabee and Obama promises to fuck up SS and permanently repeal the Paris Hilton tax.
59: technically it's Jesus speaking through him. Well, Jesus is speaking through Chuck Norris who's speaking through the Huck, technically.
Damn, Huckabee is kind of a good speaker.
He was a preacher, after all.
Did he just say, "God help you" to his supporters? Freudian slip.
So what is the significance of Iowa, exactly, and what, if anything, does any of this mean?
Sometimes nothing, but in this case, I think it gives Obama a leg up in a very close race in NH. If he wins in NH, blacks in SC, who have been worried about wasting a vote on a black person who can't win, will break for him and give him a chance to make a good showing (I don't know what polls show in SC right now) there. If all that happens, he becomes the front-runner and probably wins unless he fucks up.
Damn, Huckabee is kind of a good speaker.
Sounds like Huckabee is turning into the GOP Bill Clinton.
63: Actually Mike said G. K. Chersterson. Yeah, I'm a snob. Blow me.
I saw that McCain is booked for Meet the Press this Sunday; let the slurp-fest begin. It won't matter if he finishes ahead or behind Thompson (CNN still has Thompson ahead, but whatever)--the Russerts, et. al. of the world love the fucker.
Tom Brokaw is clearly a reanimated corpse. Even scarier than Chuck Norris. Steel-cage match 'tween the two, anyone?
G. K. Chersterson
Hee.
What was the Chesterton reference?
Forget '92 Iowa results, Harkin was a 'favorite son' - so every one else basically conceded.
I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about Edwards--it would have been nice if he'd come first, but he *did* beat Clinton. Mr. B.'s gotta be partying in Vegas tonight with the Obama results.
Huckabee is scary, man.
58b: Currently, spit on my grave, Obama & Clinton are nearly tied in NH. Chris Bowers, political expert, says Iowa will give the winner 11-14 points in NH. So Obama takes NH, then South Carolina. Clinton, with Harry Reid's help, may take Nevada. Then a bunch of primaries on one Tuesday.
Edwards needed free media momentum. Clinton needed inevitability. It is mostly about the press and the narrative. Campaign Money dries up very very quickly without victories.
Help me out on the "Beltway Heathers" thing. This is the second time I've heard it mentioned, and I have no idea what it means.
It's worth remembering that Huckabee has basically no money and is still a very long shot for the nomination.
Anyone got turnout numbers? Some people were predicting way higher Dem turnout than Repub, as a proxy for "Democrats are energized, Republicans are ennervated," and I'm curious, now.
I shoulda given Dodd money or something. I'm a mad-Obama-girl, but Dodd's impact as a candidate was just so awesome that I'm sorry to see him drop out so early. He has too much dignity to stay on after this, unfortunately.
82: It's from a 1990-ish teen movie. "Heathers" are the mean popular teenage girls who run a high school by deciding who's cool and who isn't.
The actual delegates are distributed in somewhat different proportions than the percentages, aren't they?
78: God. Brace yourself, Foxy. "The soldier does the not fight because he hates the man in front of him, but because he loves the man behind him."
CNN's entrance polls indicate that Edwards won the "Conservative" caucus goers vote by good sized plurality. Intriguing.
Anyone got turnout numbers?
MSNBC just said twice as many D as R turned out.
My uncle, the right-winger, called Huckabee a fringe candidate. His political judgment is usually pretty good. He likes Giulianni, though, and seemed to think that Clinton had proved that bedroom stuff won't hurt you. Now he says that that's only if it's in the past.
On the other hand, it's pretty nice to hear that Republican turnout was flat but Democratic turnout was way, way up, especially among young people.
85: democratic turnout is up 85% over 2004, about double GOP turnout.
80: I feel pretty much the opposite. He really needed the free boost that a clear win would get him; where can he go from here? He doesn't have the cash on hand to compete without wins he can point to.
Unless the narrative coming out of here is "the Dem race was crazy-close." Then, maybe it's a wash. I get the sense that Becks has it right in the original post, though.
63: Actually Mike said
it took me nearly 30 seconds to realize you weren't referring to me.
Wolf Blitzer drives me nuts.
85: I think it was 210k. More than double the Republicans? And double the 2004 Dem turnout? Can this be right?
I'm wondering how Michigan is going to play out. The Republicans took away half of Michigan's delegates for putting their primary before Feb 5th. The Democrats took away all of Michigan's delegates. Are the Democrats going to campaign heavily there for the momentum?
95: Yeah, at this point I'm figuring it's Obama. Which is fine -- I was rooting for Edwards, but Obama has his points.
And now Tim Russert's gigantic head is dominating the screen. I should turn off the TV.
76: I saw that McCain is booked for Meet the Press this Sunday; let the slurp-fest begin.
Yes, even though he basically tied a walking zombie and barely finished ahead of Ron fucking Paul—I'm not watching because my eyes would start bleeding, but I bet they've been ignoring Ron Paul. No worries! Tim Russert, Attack Bovine of the Moneycons to the rescue!
Well, I've managed to ignore most of this stuff until now, but now I'm jonesing for a SC poll. Who's got one?!
So I don't know what to make of this Republican result: yes, Huckabee fringe nationally, maybe (Baptist preacher, for god's sake), but then, well ... Romney or McCain.
How are the Republican candidates polling in NH lately?
Why is it that when they show the Republican results, they show the number of voters, but when they show the Democratic results, they show numbers like "864" which are presumably the number of delegates?
SC:
http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
Damn, Obama has basically doomed Edwards' candidacy. But anyway, we have to take back our party, and Obama is probably closer to that than Hilary, so...
Petey cashed in his Edwards positions around sundown tonight. Nick Beaudrot & Neil Werewolf are not optimistic.
Obama is not exactly an insurgent, and has the Village behind him. I am not sure why the Village turned on Hillary. Digby has a story:Hillary showed up at the WaPo bus today and was greeted woth a very uncomfortable silence. Somethin's goin on. It ain't idealism among WaPo reporters.
106: The processes are different, the Repub side is more like an actual vote.
What's interesting in the POllster link is the trends--Obama's gaining, Edwards has an upturn, but Clinton, it looks like not so much. And those are poll results from last month, if I'm not mistaken.
Why is it that when they show the Republican results, they show the number of voters, but when they show the Democratic results, they show numbers like "864" which are presumably the number of delegates?
The two parties have different caucusing methods, and (importantly) different reporting methods. The Republicans just take a head count and are done with it. The Dems have a threshold requirement and allow you to back a different delegate if your first favorite doesn't meet the threshold in your caucus. The Dems then only report the state delegate results, not the initial raw numbers.
"Why do I like Sunday? ... how can I tell you? ... because he's such a Bounder."
102: I haven't heard a word about Paul all night. Not that I'm complaining (Paul is batshit), but it's pretty goddamn stupid to start blowing McCain based on nothing but the fact that he's "a good guy."
Grrrr. I'm apparently quite pissy this evening.
I think they're badly misreading the "Edwards didn't congratulate Obama" issue. Edwards, it seemed to me, didn't attack Obama, but he did take a shot at Hillary. Seemed to me that he was positioning himself for veep. Which, as I said on another thread, is the best ticket that I can imagine. Also, Edwards really was great tonight. I hope Obama is as good.
God, I'm depressed. Obama winning Iowa is like getting socks for Christmas.
Having looked at the SC polls, I'm gonna say that the race is Obama's to lose. It's much closer there than I'd have guessed and his momentum is going to take it.
Ok, Obama speaking now...
In other news, I got socks for Christmas.
The Unifier is speaking. Sound on.
Stras, let him talk. Maybe he'll make you feel a bit better.
Me too! But I like getting socks.
111: ain't rocket science, Bob. Obama's a star in the old school manner. They love that.
I see white people.
Read less unfogged.
Yeah, if it ends up Obama/Edwards, I will be quite happy.
"Pretty stylish family." God, Matthews is such an aesthete.
... obama says internment camps in utah for iranians "only common sense" ...
Obama is the only candidate whose wife has enlightened us as to his morning wood. Has to be a plus.
I always get socks for Christmas----and I like 'em.
Obama/Dodd '08!
Of course he makes the right noises, too. The man's a pro.
Hm, we've got a little old-school preacher style going on.
If Edwards loses South Carolina, that's the death knell for his campaign.
Hm, we've got a little old-school preacher style going on.
Obama is like Huckabee for rich white liberals.
I always get socks for Christmas, but it takes me about 12 months to wear out a pair of socks, so that works out okay.
Makes Huckabee look like an amateur. The man has a gift for cadence and intonation. The words are totally bland, but I've got goosebumps. Just: wow.
Yeah, if it ends up Obama/Edwards, I will be quite happy.
128, meet 8.
I heard Barack Omaba fucks the shit out of socks.
Presidential damn speechmaker, he is. Look at those people! They're crazy for him!
The man has a gift for cadence and intonation.
So you're saying he's articulate?
Obama has, like, thirty goddamned delegates.
141: I didn't say I wouldn't be surprised. I said I'd be happy.
Obama/Dodd would be excellent. (I'd love an Edwards pick, of course, but I have a hard time seeing it happening...)
Was that a U-S-A chant?
Phil Bredesen, Governor of Tennessee. You heard it here first.
In a health care election, I don't think you can have as your running mate the guy who presided over the collapse of TennCare, one of the most ambitious state-level experiments in covering the uninsured. I'm not saying Bredesen is all at fault in the matter; but Mike Dukakis didn't pollute Boston Harbor, either.
But his mic should be higher. Or he shouldn't hunch. Very Mayor Quimby. But still, really good with the cadence and intonation. Plus, the confidence.
This is a totally ordinary speech people. Jeez. Unfogged officially does not drink Kool-Aid.
Dodd would be cool. Where's Dodd from? Presumably Obama needs a southerner or a westerner, no?
137: don't fuck this up, Obama...don't fuck this up, Obama...
Yah mean like calling out the series of states coming up that have primaries?
I'm not feeling inspired by his speechyfying. Maybe because Deval Patrick is a great orator, and he's been a bit of a disappointment.
I liked Edwards better so far. I demand at least 10% fruit juice in my sugary beverages.
I really do prefer watching these speeches with the sound off. Watching the eyes.
This is a totally ordinary speech people. Jeez.
If he starts doing the human beatbox, I will dance.
I hear he swims, ogged.
He's not black again now?
I don't remember anything Obama said now. They said, they said, they said, this proves that the people are more powerful than the lobbyists. Okeydoke. A good speech, but he's not Bill Clinton. (Or John Edwards.)
In a health care election, I don't think you can have as your running mate the guy who presided over the collapse of TennCare
Fair enough - I don't know the first thing about Bredesen. I just know it won't be a Senator, but likely a Governor from the South or th Midwest. Sibelius might be a better choice.
I hear he swims, ogged.
Just the white half.
153/7: Yeah, Dodd doesn't balance the ticket. But I can dream; I just want to get Dodd into the executive. I'm not picky about methods.
Boo to the ethanol wink-nudge, by the way.
I'm listening now via Yahoo. Boooooooring.
"I know you didn't do this for me": solid!
"While I may be standing here tonight ..."
Or I may not be, I guess.
Is Sibelius a possibility? Because she would totally get the Clinton/feminist support, and it would be a lot firmer than Clinton's.
I just want to get Dodd into the executive
Atty general, anyone?
"I know you didn't do this for me"
He says that to all the hookers.
He looks skinny. Eat, Barack, eat!
175: That's three times. You've just earned yourself a Secret Service tail.
173: You mean for the VP slot? I think that either Obama or Clinton have to take an old white dude as a VP, to reassure the old white dudes who have all the money and whatnot that nobody's forgotten them.
NPR says that Obama's a "natural" orator. Racist, and completely wrong.
I don't remember anything Obama said now. They said, they said, they said, this proves that the people are more powerful than the lobbyists.
Yeah, this is a problem. In a national election, older voters aren't going to go for this.
My state votes around eight months after Super Tuesday, so it won't matter in any way, but I'm still voting for Dodd. If he's off the ballot, I'm writing him in.
Secret Service tails wag invisibly.
171: Apparently Sifu actually believes that, with all of his exes, it wasn't him, it was her.
Mike D, no way on the Richardson Veep pick. He may be angling for it, but the dude is so obviously an egotist that I can't see a candidate choosing him for the position---after the era of Cheney, that is.
It's weird listening to Obama give one of these inspirational speeches. It really wasn't because he "gives good speech" that I decided to back him. I've liked him in smaller-scale interviews and discussions, and of course I'm tremendously biassed in his favor because he was a university professor of Con. Law.
Look at all those honkies get emotional. I bet he ends this by crowd surfing.
The Obama Antichrist thread over at my place should be reawakening any minute now.
179: I dunno, when I thought it would be Clinton/Obama I figured that the black man/white woman combo would be a pretty powerful "change" message.
Is Sibelius a possibility?
I'm just throwing names out there. Go through here and pick who you like. Easley in NC is a possibility. I'm a fan of O'Malley in Maryland, but he's too new in office. Schweitzer out of Montana would be an interesting choice.
I'm totally putting the cart before the horse here, but it's fun.
"Only in America."
Shit. We're voting for Don King.
Why people listen to speeches from politicians has always mystified me. The only information transmitted is how astutely the person in question has divined what various people want to hear, and what weight they assign their importance. Cadence and intonation are means of distorting this transmission, and so I read transcripts.
He does do a good job of seeming serious; John Edwards, much as I love him, still comes off as prissy a lot of the time.
It would be a pretty powerful change message. My guess is that the political strategists of the world don't want to get their message quite that strong/radical.
I think there is a little premature irrational exuberance being exhibited here.
Recall that Iowa borders Illinois (see Gephardt & Simon over Dukakis in '88). Obama will benefit from Kool Kidz blowjobs through the primary season, but it ain't but just started.
likely a Governor from the South or th Midwest
I'll take a long odds bet on Mike Easely if anyone's offering.
That was a great ending to what, given by anyone else, would have been a dull speech.
Easley in NC is a possibility.
Maybe, but he's kinda bland. I imagine Wesley Clark is still on some short lists.
I dunno, when I thought it would be Clinton/Obama I figured that the black man/white woman combo would be a pretty powerful "change" message.
True, which is why it would frighten the old rich white guys and will therefore not happen.
Awwww, down goes Biden. Who will make fun of Rudy now?
Biden is drunk. Drunk to the tune of eleven scotches.
188: My own resident troll is saying that a black man can't possibly win.
no way on the Richardson Veep pick.
You'll notice, JM, I've avoided Richardson intentionally. I love the guy, but the rumors of "bimbo eruption"-type stories circle thick around him. That would be asking for trouble.
Nah, a black guy can win. A woman, though, no fucking way.
198: He's heavy with Clinton, isn't he?
I've decided that Edwards still has a shot, as long as the media play up the "Yay Obama, boo Clinton" angle. Edwards could snatch SC and live on.
Or, I'm grasping at straws.
Geez Matthews is being downright obscene with the Obama-love. Somebody find that man his pants.
I think there is a little premature irrational exuberance being exhibited here.
Give us a break, it's been a long time coming.
Maybe, but he's kinda bland.
"Interesting" is not generally considered a virtue in a runningmate. See Eagleton, Thomas.
Maybe, but [Easley]'s kinda bland.
Isn't that a plus in your Veeps?
i like Ari's excitement, so nicely sincere
208 was my revenge for you pwning me earlier, mike d.
I think there is a little premature irrational exuberance being exhibited here.
Give us a break, it's been a long time coming.
Premature and belated.
I seriously doubt Richardson is going to be chosen for VP no matter who the nominee is.
I have been ruined by Bush, who is a terribly obvious liar. Like I said, I can be fooled. Presidential Candidates are monstrously talented.
No, I can't buy the idealism + comity stuff. FDR & Truman were partisan assholes, JFK spouted pretty bullshit but governed center-right, Johnson & Reagan & Clinton were cold SOB's. The cynicism & skepticism I feel listening to Obama is not only my nature, but empirically justified by a century or more of history.
Kids.
208: simul-pwned.
Interesting appreciation of Eagleton in the most recent NYT Magazine, btw.
I think there is a little premature irrational exuberance being exhibited here.
Yayyyyy! Ima gonna wear my Obama t-shirt tomorrow!
Absent strong evidence that it would be a problem, given a male nominee, I really want a female VP candidate. Sibilieus (sp) sounds like a good choice.
180: NPR says that Obama's a "natural" orator. Racist, and completely wrong.
Nah, I think it is something about the physical structure of his lips.
208 was my revenge for you pwning me earlier, mike d.
I didn't pwn you - you caught me talking out my arse...
Gosh, I'm an Edwards guy, but Obama's speech was really, really good.
Nah, I think it is something about the physical structure of his lips.
And his ginormous ears make him an excellent listener, too.
No way Obama picks a woman for VP.
Why not? Women win all over the place, and in both parties.
I should see what Unf is thinking, given that he had a chance to join Obama's organization a few years ago, before anyone even in Illinois had really heard of him. Hell, Unf almost had me convinced to move back and join up.
224: Funny. But Secret Service agents aren't the laughing types. Watch yourself. You're a guest here.
I should see what Unf is thinking,
I can see it now: Drug Czar Unf.
Why not? Women win all over the place, and in both parties.
Because that makes it a novelty ticket, and will make too many people too nervous. No way he picks a woman.
Chris Matthews must be stopped. Obama has locked up the much-coveted Peace Corps volunteer bloc.
Where's the Huckabee love? If the evangelical nuts and the greedheads are actually splintering, this could be very good for America and the world.
But then you thought ... Black President .. Black BMW ... Black President ... Black BMW ... ah, fuck it.
231: They said Bill Clinton couldn't possibly pick another Southerner for VP. Political geniuses make surprising moves.
234: My problem with the Huck win is that I think this re-opens the door for McCain, and the media fellatiating that will follow.
237: Only one of us can be the sexiest, ma'am.
237 wins the "summarizing B" contest.
I am seriously fucking freaked out. If I don't kumbaya with Chris Matthews & Andy Sullivan in the all-encompassing Obama-loveglow, am I damned for all eternity?
I really am serious. I feel like a bad person tonight.
before anyone even in Illinois had really heard of him
My across-the-hall neighbor had an Obama sign outside his door way back in 1999-2000. IOW, I was country before country was cool.
I agree with 234. It sounds like the media has already nominated McCain as the anti-Huckabee, even though he finished behind an infidel and the laziest man in Hollywood.
No, if your neighbor had a Huckabee sign outside his door, then you would have been country before country was cool.
240: Well, duh. Who else could do it?
McCain was in for infinite fellatio no matter how he placed. The media was spoiling for some crazy old man cock. I give it three days before someboody floats the Obama/McCain unity ticket idea.
Voting in the 2008 election cycle has been going on for only a few hours and I'm already fed up. Huckabee still terrifies me. Yes, yes, he's a compelling speaker and he seems so affable! I wouldn't piss on him if he were on fire.
I currently am kind of sick and in Philadelphia, which is so unbelievably fucking cold, and it is reflected in my mood.
57% of under 30s voted for Obama. We will not get off your lawn!
Actually, the loveglow & unexpected victory is freaking me out a tiny bit & the premature concessions from Edwards supporters should stop.
Illinois is next door to Iowa, guys.
The one thing that might sink Obama is if there's massive mobilization of new black voters (not unlikely) that spooks too many white people, and lets Hillary, who has plenty of money, hang around long enough to come back.
Naw, really, if Obama's the candidate, he needs to counter the doubts of those incomprehensible swing voters who can't decide whether to go Dem or Republican. Anyone who's torn between Obama's policies and those of a Romney or McCain needs reassurance that some sort of stable conservatism will remain.
I frankly can't imagine who would complement Obama.
Some of the gels are so smart and likely nowadays, and I'm told they can do quite well running their own small businesses. But c'mon now, we're talking geo-politics and America's place in the world and somebody's finger on the button and all of that Important Stuff ... and the world's just not ready for a female President, because we all know just how emotional the womenfolk can be.
Hey come visit Boston, RMcMP! It's only eight hours north and even colder!
And Iowa is next door to the middle of fucking nowhere.
If/When someone beats Huckabee, it's going to involve stepping on some twice-born toes. This could be the breakdown of the Money/Religion coaltion.
Because that makes it a novelty ticket, and will make too many people too nervous.
And a white male VP looks like a minder and neuters Obama. There are always risks. But--despite the fact that they split for Republicans--white women are (I believe) numerically the real spine of the Democratic Party. Time to get paid.
255: cut that out!
I've heard Jim Webb suggested, which makes some sense.
250: I'm slowling coming to my senses, I think. Keep living the dream...
252 to 231 and previous, re: Obama's running mate.
The one thing that might sink Obama
Dude, Hillary is going to win the nomination.
Wait, I know the perfect masturbatory unity veep pick: Bloomberg. I don't really see Mayor Mike as taking on the bucket o' warm spit role, but I'll bet the Heathers would love the idea.
And Iowa is next door to the middle of fucking nowhere.
Hey! Omaha's not the middle of fucking nowhere!
Okay, actually it is.
250: Western (hick) Illinois is next to Iowa. Chicago is not.
259: Would that be too much "inexperience"? Or, perhaps, it would hammer home all of the change crap.
I wouldn't piss on him if he were on fire.
Very ungenerous of you. I'd piss on him whether he was on fire or not.
Edwards is a strong VP candidate in the traditional sense, in that he clearly can talk shit without seeming petty. He is also young, so that, in the unlikely event the Ds win two consecutive elections, he would be well placed to run in '16. However, I also find the Yglesias/Klein line about Biden's strength on foreign policy persuasive.
So says my head. My heart, however, is with Gore. Best VP ever!(except for TR).
To see a tongue-in-cheek review of the Iowa primary in pictures...link here:
264: The Jew is using the Black as muscle.
Dude, Hillary is going to win the nomination.
I still kind of think this is true. And I'm more and more OK with it.
253: See how hysterical they get when they don't get what they want?
I think that the calculus for VP has at least as much to do with young/old as gender or color. If Obama picked anyone under 55, it would read as a super-young ticket, and thus as a radical change kind of ticket. Other than Edwards, isn't everyone else in the race (prior to tonight's dropouts) 60+? Clinton/Gore was intended as a generational shift; are we ready for another one 16 years later?
269: I love me some Biden, but I have a hard time picturing him as a VP. He loves making himself the focal point...
How much you wanna bet that the Freeper blogs start saying 272 in earnest?
It turns out that Tim lives next door to me. My neighbor hated Hillary back when she was first pronounced front-runner, and slowly he made his peace with it. Now he's actually looking forward to Hillary being President.
I've heard Jim Webb suggested, which makes some sense.
I'm not willing to give up the Senate seat. But he does strike me as excellent VP material, in a lot of ways, substantial and not.
The Jew is using the Black as muscle.
Well, in that case, I'll just revert to my earlier dream ticket: Obama/Feingold!
Clark would actually be great, now that I ponder it.
276: Yes, it's only a matter of time. Racism, coded and otherwise, is now inevitable. Steel yourself.
Let's not underestimate the "any Democrat" feeling. One big win is probably enough to get everyone in line behind Obama.
254: It is fucking cold outside, isn't it? My only consolation is my knowledge that a thousand political reporters from DC to CA are,as we speak, descending on NH, where it's even colder. Welcome to NE, bitches.
I missed the Hillary and Edwards speeches - does anyone have a link?
before country was cool.
I always blink and miss stuff like this. Did we have a country is cool day and nobody told me?
There's no way anyone would pick Biden as their VP. He's much too much of a loose cannon.
Also: next person to say "Super-Duper Tuesday" gets shot.
Hate to say it, but Clark might well be a better VP candidate than Edwards because of the foreign policy cred.
I mean, now that the Presidential nomination has been settled and all.
190, 196, etc.: Easley made one trip to Iowa about a year and a half ago and never went back. He hates campaigning. I cannot emphasize this enough, he hates campaigning. In 2004 he walked up and down the street kicking his opponent's ass even though that opponent looked like Clinton, talked like Reagan and remained locked for the entire campaign in a rictus of prayer and barely lifted a finger for the effort. His opponent would have lengthy, impassioned responses to questions in debates and Gov. Easley would pull out a terse, one-to-three-syllable answer and mop the floor. So, sure, on the one hand, proven winner. On the other hand, he is a politician who enjoys governing but really fucking hates being a candidate. I think someone probably made him make that trip and he came back and said, thanks, but I think I'd like to be able to go play a round of golf without snipers involved, and that is pretty much that.
I have no idea who will snag the Veep nod on the Dem side but I guarantee the Republicans will pick a woman. I feel a sudden surety about this I cannot possibly explain.
I am not coming to Boston, Sifu. Thanks, but one of my fraternity brothers here lives there now and says it is, in fact, even colder. I don't understand how you're typing given all your digits must fall the fuck off when you step outside.
I understand an urge to piss on Huckabee if he were not on fire and I think I might agree to that but only if it would make him cry.
Someone, maybe Yglesias, posted earlier today about the way that insiders are vastly underestimating the press, domestic and international, avalanche that will accompany an Obama win. It's a great story.
Also, no more Huckabee/Bill Clinton comparisons. Clinton knew things. Huckabee does not. Clinton, then, could be cornpone because he had the goods. Huckabee only has the folksy rhetoric. And Jesus. I'm not saying he's a lightweight -- well, maybe I am -- just that the analogy to Clinton makes very little sense.
are we ready for another one 16 years later?
We're a generation raised on microwave ovens and ADD medications.
287: dude what if Obama says it? We'll BURN SHIT DOWN, man. We totally will.
How can Clark walk back all of his support for Clinton? I mean, I like the idea. But I don't see it.
I guarantee the Republicans will pick a woman
Katherine Harris, here we come.
I understand an urge to piss on Huckabee if he were not on fire and I think I might agree to that but only if it would make him cry.
He's a conservative Baptist minister. He'd probably get off on it.
I guarantee the Republicans will pick a woman.
I love the evil genius of this. VP Condi.
VP Condi.
Wouldn't be surprised at all.
Ari, since when does substance matter? Clinton was loathed by the media, in part because he took policy seriously.
Looking at the map Katherine may have a point about Iowa being next to Illinois.
No way it'll be Condi.
Sexist. I mean, racist. I mean, anti-semite.
250: Western (hick) Illinois is next to Iowa. Chicago is not.
El wrongo, dude. There is essentially no identifiable region of Western Illinois, it is elongated North/South and Iowa borders the North. Chicago is all of 145 miles from the closest point in Iowa (so 13.2 kilometers). Chicago serves as the "metro center" for the most populous parts of Iowa (pro sports fandom etc.).
The effect is probably not as great as that for Gephardt, but I am sure there is some Midwest solidarity component to the results.
302: The word you're looking for is homophobe.
There is no way that it would be Condi. But just imagine how much fun that campaign would be.
301: Oh well, ignore 303 then ... (but do see 195).
I'm trying to think of a Republican woman who could make a plausible Veep. Rice is probably going to go home and cry for a decade after her term is up. Elisabeth Dole got badly bruised after the 2006 election (she was the RNC Senatorial chair, or whatever it's called, right?) I'm not coming up with any other names right now, but I agree that Republicans will need to soften their appeal a bit for the general. This primary on the Republican side has been all testicles, all the time.
: The word you're looking for is homophobe.
Of course, of course.
Maybe it won't be a woman, but a black man. Or other minority. I hear Alberto Gonzales is out of a job.
How can Clark walk back all of his support for Clinton?
"Eh, she lost."
307: Sarah Palin of Alaska, if we're lucky.
I hear Alberto Gonzales is out of a job.
It's not going to happen, but that would be hilarious.
304: with how she's been travelling more like hobophobe! (A homophone! If you hab a cold!)
This primary on the Republican side has been all testicles, all the time.
Senator Craig pulling the, uh, strings, I guess.
What's the Oklahoma Republican guy's name? He hasn't been fucking any gay hookers, has he?
FFS, don't even talk about any "unity ticket" bullshit. GOP Delenda Est, motherfuckers. Don't even joke about it.
258: Old white male maybe, Edwards is too young and effeminate to neuter Obama.
Agree that Obama can't have a minority or a woman as veep.
Agree with 274 that Obama/Edwards sends a message, but it might not be a deal-breaker.
Can Obama/Clark work?
What's the Oklahoma Republican guy's name?
J. C. Watts (whose initials apparently stand for "Julius Caesar").
Can Obama/Clark work?
No. Who is Clark going to deliver? (Where's he even from?)
Obama/Lieberman! There's a balanced ticket!
||
I have the crampiest PMS ever. I'm about to eat every carbohydrate in the house. And I might be coming down with that demon disease everyone has. Blargh.
|>
Poor Becks. Eat carbs, take Advil. Hot pad? Hot water bottle?
Blargh.
Was this live onamatopoetic puking? Because: awesome.
318: It's not Watts, it was the guy who objected to a judicial appointment on the grounds that the appointee attended a lesbian wedding. What his name is I could not tell you.
320: You can't stop yourself, B. Again, I say: The Jew is using the Black as muscle. I think I'll print up t-shirts just in case. Do you think the Belushi estate will want a cut?
320: A black, a Jew and a duck walk into a bar. The bartender looks at them and says: "What the fuck is this? Some kind of a joke?"
327: Oh. I hadn't heard about that.
Watts, that's who I was thinking of. Everyone likes him, don't they?
Watching Huckabee talk on CNN, I have two thoughts:
1) Huckabee sounds great but shit nickels that man looks fucking freaky. Part of it is no makeup or something but part of it is eyes that are too... I dunno. Too something.
2) No way on Earth is Huckabee going to win in NH. He's going to get creamed there. Too many Libertarians, too many moderates. Neither one will want to touch President Covenant Marriage. (There is a distinct possibility I am the only person in the universe who cares so much about that but it really does give me the screaming willies.)
As for female Republican VP possibilities, I'm thinking Christine Todd Whitman: served in the Bush Administration but left it, presents a good image of not being completely batshit, ran the EPA, was willing to go on the Daily Show and intimate without explicitly stating that she thought Bush was a fuck-up. They'd walk a lot of lines with that one.
283: My favorite part of the IA/NH process. It's an intentional ordeal. Democracy is free, but that doesn't make it easy!
On "The Ticket": My impression of Webb is that he's brilliant, a loner by nature, a bit of a hothead, & a possible crank. The Senate was designed for just this sort of character, & I mean that sincerely. It's great to know that tonight's also-rans all have day jobs (except Gravel of course, who I suppose will go back to his van down by the river).
I do hope (Hope! O yes! Damn but Obama can work a crowd!) that 2008 will bring us a government in which a number of prominent, known figures take personal responsibility for addressing particular issues. The VP choice will have to signal this, preferably by providing the Senate with some degree of actual leadership.
329: That'll be on the back of my t-shirts.
329: Whenever I hear that one, Kucinich is involved. Strange.
I should see what Unf is thinking, given that he had a chance to join Obama's organization a few years ago, before anyone even in Illinois had really heard of him. Hell, Unf almost had me convinced to move back and join up.
Hasn't Unf, uh, become what he is as well? I seem to recall dinners at Masa being discussed.
279: "The Jew is using the Black as muscle."
Well, in that case, I'll just revert to my earlier dream ticket: Obama/Feingold!
Marry me, Jackmormon.
327: Tom "Dickwad" Coburn.
Coburn also objects to legal abortion in cases of rape, and he has justified his position by noting that his great-grandmother was raped by a sheriff. In the U.S. Senate confirmation hearings concerning Samuel Alito, Coburn asserted that his grandmother was a product of that rape.
1) Huckabee sounds great but shit nickels
I was this close to interpreting that as a command.
319: Soldiers, gays, and gay soldiers.
332: Wow, you've totally killed my buzz by even mentioning Whitman. It really amazes me how conservative many people here seem to think Obama is.
321: My ex used to get crippling PMS, and while a constant(as in, teas or hot chocolate or coffee always next to her couch) infusion of hot liquids didn't make her any more useful, it did seem to ease her symptoms. Not that I'm an expert or anything like it, but if I were you I'd give it a shot.
Totally unfair, but Huckabee's son looks pretty effing freaky.
with that demon disease everyone has
Wait, are there other people that have this thing?
341: what if -- now bear with me here -- what if Obama picked Cheney for VP?
332: Christine Todd Whitman
For Republican vp.
Yeah, I can see that.
Shit nickels! That is awesome.
Edwards on Larry King is really playing up the "I was outspent" angle. I'm hoping that becomes part of the narrative, esp. with Huckabee's low spending as well.
The GOP ticket I fear is McCain/Huckabee, which I confess is the exact same ticket I feared two and a half years ago. It's no accident they've recently been nicer to one another than any pair of candidates in either party.
347: I like it. Obama courts the angry ape voter.
343: Unfair, maybe, but if it's a wedge that works I'm all for it. Also, dog-hanging? For fucking fuck's sake. That's something it shouldn't have taken me this long to hear.
Also, Rah, sweetie - turn on your phone, my love.
344: Me? I'm not funny. Ask anyone.
352 best thing is they could euthanize him after the elections, and just float rumors that his paranoia had spiked again and he'd gone into hiding. No-one would question it.
316 to 347, and 352, racist.
what if Obama picked Cheney for VP?
What if Obama picked Sharkey for VP?
We've arrived at the, "Have you ever watched a Chuck Norris movie?" portion of the coverage. Thanks, Chris Matthews, you're the best.
Honestly, I haven't watched cable news since Kerry's swiftboating. I'm scared now and think I'd better tune out again for four more years.
I watch cable news about five times a year, and despite not watching because I think it's abominable, I'm always surprised at how bad it is.
We were watching Fox news (!) at the bar. Sadly, the sound was turned off.
Interestingly, our young, black, female server said she kinda liked Edwards, but seemed perfectly fine with Obama winning. The bar staff generally seemed anti Clinton, from what I could gather.
358: Oh hell, I've been outed.
True story: One of my buddies' ex-girlfriends talks in her sleep. At one point, she apparently mumbled: "John Sharkey... has dark aspects." Clearly, she has me confused with someone else.
...or does she?
The more I think about it, the more I think that if the Republican nominee is not a former governor then he will choose Whitman as a signal of subtle anti-Bushness and pro-executive-experience.
If he is a former governor he will choose Kay Bailey Hutchison as a way to reassure those who suspect anyone from Taxachoozits of being a secret liberal and quietly trying to give a shout-out to the bugfuck 30% who think Bush walks on water.
Romney's son also looks weird as fuck on CNN. He's like a smug Ken doll whose mouth is too large for his face. It suggests that he was rushed in front of the camera and didn't get a chance to completely smooth his otherwise flawless human disguise.
358: didn't work out so well last time.
Obama's to lose, for sure. Independents in NH will flock to him, to be part of the thing. He'll bury Clinton, and Edwards may even beat her again. But the big story from NH is going to be the lopsided margin by which Obama beats all Republicans, is a pretty purplish state.
Edwards on Larry King is really playing up the "I was outspent" angle. I'm hoping that becomes part of the narrative, esp. with Huckabee's low spending as well.
I saw about 8 people in a row on CNN say "Well, this was Edwards's chance, and it looks like he lost just as much as Hillary did. The only winner is Obama, and everyone else is picking up the pieces." No mention of money at all.
Boyfriend says Tim Pawlenty as John McCain's VP. Ewwww.
If he is a former governor he will choose Kay Bailey Hutchison as a way to reassure those who suspect anyone from Taxachoozits of being a secret liberal and quietly trying to give a shout-out to the bugfuck 30% who think Bush walks on water.
This seems like a strange thing for Huckabee to be doing.
Okay, I believe you. In that case, J.C. Watts is a joke -- even by the standards of Oklahoma politics. He gained fame by quarterbacking the wishbone for Barry Switzer -- a huge and loyal Dem, by the way -- and then ran for office on that reputation. He served, without much distinction, turned his back on a promise to term-limit himself, and then quit to "spend more time with his family" (read: make lots of money). But before leaving Congress, he infuriated many African-Americans by making McCarthyite claims about "race-baiting poverty pimps." I think that quote is accurate, but I'm too lazy to look. In short, I don't think he has tons of traction in the African-American community.
369: Then they would just be trying to spite me.
369: Symmetry demands that Obama pick Wesley Clark and McCain pick Colin Powell.
Wow, just seeing Romney's speech tonight. He looked like his face was held together with scotch tape and base. Also, he got the "silver medal." Um, yeah, that's a good line.
371: All the more reason to put him on a Republican ticket, then.
371: that's certainly a popular phrase per google.
281L Yes, it's only a matter of time. Racism, coded and otherwise, is now inevitable.
So, uh, what exactly are the racists going to do at this point? I mean, it's not exactly a secret that Obama's black.
377: My guess? Cocaine. Also: has he ever had sex with a white woman? We'll know soon enough. And, his church is radical, you know. Scary Black people will steal your shit. Plus, he's uppity. And not Black enough. And too Black. And not really American. And a Black Muslim. And just a Muslim. And he did drugs. While having sex with white women. Even if he didn't.
And if all that fails, someone really might try to kill the poor man. My stomach hurts. It really does.
Oh, one more thing: if you really want to know what the racists are going to do, you need to ask Ogged.
You forgot that his middle name is Hussein.
Actual delegate count:
Obama 16
Clinton 15
Edwards 14
someone really might try to kill the poor man
It's already down.
376: I lived in Oklahoma while he was still in office. I have bad memories.
Ari is the American psyche. Don't worry, Ari! There are experimental treatments for that which show great promise!
Well, he'll get the jungle fever and the white-cuckold-for-black-bull-fetishist vote, at least.
They're called Mandigos now, HL. Please try to be more politically correct.
379: I wonder if Obama's apparent (based on the Iowa numbers) ability to get new/young voters out to the polls could help blunt that a bit. Far from certain, but your odd 25-year-old isn't going to see that as too big a deal. Plus the fact that he's been quite up-front about his drug use.
It will be ugly though, for sure--you're right about that.
Okay, this thread is officially starting to make me feel icky now. Stop it, white people. It's only funny up to a point.
Okay, this thread is officially starting to make me feel icky now. Stop it, white people. It's only funny up to a point.
370: My assumption is that Huckabee will choose Jesus as his running mate and thus is automatically excluded from such conversations.
381: No, I didn't. He's a Muslim. My horrid shrew of a cousin forwarded me one of those hateful pieces of spam telling me this. She bought the lie and decided that his Islamic faith meant that he'd be "bad for Israel." Or "bad for the Jews." Or something. I can't remember.
IMO, Iowa means we have a race again. McCain was always the only R that could beat a D in 08. Mr. Romney's dive suggests that Rs might countenance a JM presidency. SC, of course, will be the test, but I have a hard time imagining Romney beating McCain there. NH Dems better look long and hard at electability.
I'll say it a third time if I have to.
They're just trying to inure you, B.
382: Despite all the media clamor, it's a 3-way tie.
389: Yeah, I agree. I'm such a Democrat. I've found a way to depress myself on a night that I've been dreaming about for months.
NH Dems better look long and hard at electability.
foolishmortal is banned.
382: Despite all the media clamor, it's a 3-way tie.
Did you just reference your own comment? In any case, I don't think that's quite right. Momentum, baby.
396: Unfortunately, that media clamor is probably all that matters. Some jackass is on CNN talking about McCain's second chance... which means Grandpa Thompson must damn near be the favorite.
392: So every time you get one of those, send back an email to everyone on the distribution list saying how important it is to vote against Obama on November 18th this year.
396: It's really not. It's a narrative. And that narrative is: Obama wins huge victory! Above the fold, front page of every paper in the country, that's the story. Not a tie.
McCain is deeply disliked by big, vocal sections of the Republican Party. I'd bet on Huckabee taking South Carolina.
Yeah I mean if we're talking delegates, shit don't matter for months. Nobody's talking delegates.
Obama has already recieved 5 million dollars in contributions tonight. He will be the nominee, will be President, or it is gonna be an awesome fricking year. Hell, awesome if he wins, I guess, tho if he wins, it's cause he could, and the revolution already happened.
Ya know, I originally wasn't going to comment on a thread like this tonight. I really don't want to take idealism & hope from the young, and make them bitter & cynical like me. I really don't want the world to do it either. But, as so often, my main reaction is fear & sadness, remembering the sixties.
Maybe my time has indeed gone, and whatever visions & triumphs, mistakes and tragedies that will happen belong to a younger generation. Maybe the old should just grieve or go fishing.
But I should have done what Paul Krugman did.
"I've made my doubts clear; but for tonight, I simply offer best wishes and hopes for a brighter future." ...PK
bob, just acknowledge that Obama is better than any possible Republican, and call it a night.
Not a tie.
Not a tie in the media, sure. But there's a perfectly good chance that Clinton and Obama split the delegates more or less evenly in NH, NV, and SC. And it will still be a tie then, with less delegates combined than even one of the larger states to come.
403: I'd bet on Huckabee taking South Carolina.
I agree that he will hang on for SC, but the Moneycons and their Imperial Press Corps will be trying to drive him down. The whole Wayne Dumond pardon thing would work great for that except that an essential part of the story is what fucktards the selfsame Press were about Clinton. But one way or another the long knives will be out for the Huckster.
409 is true, but it's South Carolina. The Baptist minister is a shoo-in.
408: It depends what you mean by "perfectly good chance." I think the smart money is on Obama winning New Hampshire and South Carolina handily. Nevada seems like an impossible dream for him, I'll grant you, with Reid working for Hillary. So the race isn't over; I'm not claiming it's a foregone conclusion. Events often intrude upon inevitabilities. But I don't think tonight was a tie in any meaningful way.
408: money won't be a tie though.
Buchanan just blamed Iraq on the Democrats in Congress. Lovely. What an incorrigible sack of crap.
413: For being there, or for losing?
I don't see how Huckabee doesn't take South Carolina, but I haven't seen a poll.
I've been assuming that Obama couldn't win because of the race issue, but now I'm wondering if this election might show me that in a way the world is beginning to pass me by. I have certain expectations of how racist the country is, and maybe I haven't kept up and the country is now better about that than I imagine.
Anyway, I don't think there's any way the Democrats can lose in November. The Republicans could nominate Jesus, and still max out at 45 percent. There is a grassroots visceral loathing of George Bush out there that will destroy the Republican nominee, especially with the recession that is barrelling down on us. Really, the Democrats should try to make it sporting by choosing as unpalatable a running mate as possible. I like Ned's Subcommandate Marcos suggestion, but it's not enough. I think they should opt for an animatronic Trotsky complete with embedded ice axe. Or even better, the living Reverend Phelps.
414: For being there. They signed off before he had a chance to blame them for losing.
But I don't think tonight was a tie in any meaningful way.
In a race to 2184 delegates, Obama is leading 16-15.
417: And that's not meaningful, I don't think. That's my point. Iowa is about momentum and narrative. Obama won both of those prizes easily. The delegates will come later. Or they won't. I don't claim to know. But, for now, he won. Tonight was not a tie.
I don't know whether this is magnamity in victory or a panicky "oh god, he actually won, this never happens, what if bob mcmanus & my mom are right, now I'm responsible" reaction or annoyance about the rush to settle this before anyone votes or what, but Edwards supporters damn well should take the position that it's a three way tie. The delegates are split. He had more supporters than Clinton; is she conceding? Dean had a way worse night in 2004, but I wrote him a check, went to New Hampshire, & voted for him in my primary--I'm stubborn, & it wasn't over yet, & he was an important voice. So is Edwards, and I would be even more excited about Obama's victory if he could bring some more of what Edwards has going for him.
416: Hmmmm. Does that mean it was in fact a mistake?
412 to 417.
415 shut your mouth. There's always a way to lose.
Let me clarify one thing: if the delegates don't come later, it won't be because of anything that happened tonight. Something will have to happen down the line to hurt Obama or REALLY help Edwards or Clinton.
Voting for Obama is not only a repudiation of racism. It's also a denial of racism. And therefore racist.
That's a joke that worked better in my head. Night all.
423 - You should leave that kind of humor to the professionals, like Jonah Goldberg.
407:No,
The only President in my lifetime I have loved is LBJ. JFK, Carter, & Clinton I feel were net negatives for progressivism and the Democratic Party. "Better than Republicans" is way too low a bar. Way too low.
And we still have a long way to go before November.
415: You know, I don't think it's that the country isn't racist, it's that they can make exceptions for individuals long before they can get to the point of not making the racist generalization in the first place. I think a substantial number of a certain kind of racist will vote for Obama.
Yes, plenty of time for Obama to steal your heart by buying you a pony. Would that do it?
426 is right. It's: "See, I'm not a racist. I voted for the clean and articulate Negro fellow. Please ignore the photos of me yucking it up a an SAE slave auction, my membership in an exclusive club, and the cross I burned with the boys last weekend. Some of my best friends are black people."
And now I'm saying silly things. Time for bed. Good night, all.
I agree with 426. Ham-Love's argument that Obama can easily be loved by people who don't like blacks is expanded upon here.
It will only work if the non-FoxNews media continues to love him, though.
426: indeed. I wonder if this isn't one of his greatest strengths.
428: you sure you aren't a little tipsy to be commenting under your own name, Ari?
And I knew 5 years ago the WAR was gonna fuck the Democratic Party up.
Fucking kids think they can get peace smiling & being nice and handing flowers to the soldiers, and hate the ones who tell em:"Ain't gonna work." The kids just hate em, and maybe both the kids and the assholes are right to hate each other.
Wait! Fucking flashback. This time it will be different, and the war will end and bring peace & prosperity and love.
Fucking war.
429: An excellent idea. See you kids in NH...
428: What's a "SAE slave auction"?
428: Or, to be less extreme about it, "well of course most of them are ignorant lazy criminals, but I like that Denzel Washington fella in the movies, he's not like the rest of them at all."
435, SAE is a fraternity, that's all I know.
This time it will be different, and the war will end and bring peace & prosperity and love. long term basing, less deficit spending, and enduring distrust.
There, fixed that for you.
soupbz you are one talkative motherfucker tonight. While you've got a bit of the ol' Obama in you, tell me stories of the dotcom boom.
I'm content tonight, a 25-year old unembittered by the nattering nabobs among you. And re-reading this article about the Huckster to remind myself again how fucking batshit crazy he is.
Obama, woot!
Crazed flying hamsters with rabies and tertiary syphilis would be better than the Republican candidates. This does not mean I'm writing 'Fluffy' in on my ballot.
440: whups, missed this sifu ---- another night perhaps, I'm off to bed.
In case anyone is interested...
Entrance poll notes:
- This was a generational win. Obama got 57% of the under 30 vote. That's an astonishing figure. To put it into perspective, it means Obama came in third among over the entire over 30 electorate and still won the caucuses comfortably.
- Clinton won the rural vote. There was a quote a few days ago from Edwards' rural coordinator, Mudcat Saunders, about how Team Clinton's organization was incredibly formidable in rural areas. I guess he wasn't lying. Edwards won the suburban vote. Obama won the urban vote by a big margin.
- Edwards won those who decided between 7 and 4 days ago, but tied Obama for those who decided in the final 3 days, which mirrors what I'd been figuring.
- Edwards won those who'd caucused before, but Obama obviously swamped him on new caucus-goers. Mirrors the CW.
- Obama came in third among married voters, but cleaned up among singles.
- Edwards won the second choice vote easily, despite the Richardson deal.
- Clinton beat Obama almost 3 to 1 among senior citizens, another example of just how much of a generational election this was.
- Edwards came in first among conservative Dems and third among very liberal Dems, which indicates how identity politics trumped ideology for this electorate.
- The union vote was narrowly bunched, with Edwards third, which is amazing.
- Edwards won those most concerned about electability, which at least shows that this electorate wasn't completely clueless.
- There was only one question referencing foreign policy, but it seemed to indicate that the less you cared about foreign policy, the more likely you were to vote for Edwards.
On to New Hampshire and Nevada.
Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command...
"Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command..."
No fucking doubt.
I've never seen results as crazily age dependent as these. Here's Obama's numbers:
57% 17-29
42% 30-44
27% 45-64
18% 65 & up
I'm an Edwards supporter who has Krugman-like ideological problems with Obama, but personal preferences made clear, I'll still note that if Obama doesn't find a way to get old people to warm up to him, he's not going to be taking any oaths of office.
438: Wow, Apo, you're good. That's exactly what I was talking about. I take back everything I said earlier; tonight was a tie if you say so.
Edwards, though, will be fine even if he can't make inroads with urban voters. Right, Petey? Keep spinning.
"Edwards, though, will be fine even if he can't make inroads with urban voters. Right, Petey?"
Edwards is quite obviously behind the eight ball at the moment, even if he's not nearly as dead as some would have it.
My only real point there is that Obama put together a really weird plurality last night when you look at it by age. Early multi-candidate primaries are very different than winning nominations or general elections in that you only need a plurality to win instead of a majority. Huckabee, for example, isn't going to be the GOP nominee because he's a plurality candidate who isn't going to be able to extend out to a majority.
I'm not saying Obama can't extend out to a majority. I'm just saying that he's going to have to show he can be competitive among old folks at some point along the line if he wants the nomination and general election. And whether or not he can do that is likely going to be the determinative factor over the next 5 weeks.
For the time being, he's lucky he's in a three-way race rather than a two-way race.
But what if picks up only a relatively small percentage of elderly voters, as compared to past Dems, but really energizes young people -- as seems possible after tonight? He'll be fine. Fine, that is, if the numbers add up.
Anyway, your guy was great tonight. As I said in another thread, he made me proud to be a Democrat. But then Obama did the unthinkable: he made me proud to be an American. Really, I wouldn't have thought it possible. Two great speeches. I only hope that the two can form a single ticket. I don't care who'd be at the top.
"But what if picks up only a relatively small percentage of elderly voters, as compared to past Dems, but really energizes young people -- as seems possible after tonight? He'll be fine."
Well, no. He's going to need to really expand his reach among old folks at some point to reach majorities and win both the nomination and general election.
And the problem is that the very things that have always made folks wonder about Obama's electability - his skin color, his middle name, the religion of his father - are the ones that are going to be hardest for old folks to deal with.
Or in other words, there's reason to wonder if the Obama brand can extend into old folks the way he's going to need it to. There's reason to wonder if he can scale up.
I'm basically not spinning in this thread. It's been too long a day, and I find the results too interesting at the moment. There's bunches of stuff in my entrance poll rundown above that isn't particularly helpful to my candidate, for example. And this entire line of argument isn't particularly helpful to my candidate - it's too grinch-like. I'll get back to spinning tomorrow.
All I'm really saying here is that the results today haven't done anything to disprove the notion that the American electorate isn't enlightened enough to deal with Obama. He may well disprove that notion down the road, but I think whether he can or can't is going to be the crucial factor going forward. Old folks are going to be his test.
Yeah, remember all the excitement last time round about
Oh give me a fucking break, I've never SEEN you not spinning. By all means go ahead but don't be disingenuous about it.
Clinton had almost that big an age gap in the opposite direction (45% among 65+, 11% among younger people), so as to whether older voters hate Obama or just really like Clinton--well, not surprising which an Edwards supporter says. It's not especially surprising that candidates running less on clear ideological differences than "fresh face for change" versus "experience" pitches are going to have a generation gap, especially given that in my experience:
--Hillary's breaking down a barrier too & it means the most to older female Democrats.
--Older democratic voters tend to be most loyal to the Democratic party as an institution--which makes them really apt to vote for the candidate who's "earned it" but does not make them at all apt to stay home or bolt in the general election.
Have we discuss the fact that 112,000 Republicans voted and 230,000 Democrats voted?
This much time has been spent on so few people???
454: And that was an enormous turnout by IA's historical standards. Becks's 10AM take was right.
453: Katherine, I don't totally buy Petey's interpretation either, but there's no call for flinging around hostile ad hominems. Petey's no more "spinning" than any other commenter I've seen; he's just refreshingly blunt with his motives and passions. And despite his relentless boostering for Edwards, I've found his political analysis to be remarkably prescient - predicting the Edwards surge and strategy well before the CW picked up on it, and accurately stating that the Clinton campaign was misfiring badly when every center-left pundit under the sun was still talking about an inevitable Clinton coronation. Just because his agenda is more transparent than most doesn't mean you can dismiss what he has to say as spin.
Thanks, Petey, for the information.
Social Security etc is fucked if Obama gets elected.
The Obama voter is your typical "It is all you Boomer's fault. Everything. Worst generation ever!!" punk. Obama is targetting the ignorant kid crowd in order to gain a constuency for...well, I can't imagine?
"Hey, it's a boomer SS trust fund. Let the boomers pay it back. Not my taxes."
Social Security etc is fucked if Obama gets elected.
Obama can only sign what Congress sends him, and if there's any one issue they've hung tough on, it's Social Security.
457: Bob, you need to drop the generational resentment thing and accept that maybe kids are voting for Obama because they like Obama, and not because they want to go back in time to '68 and help the cops stomp protesting hippies in front of the Chicago convention. Second, I'm no Obama fan, but really, he's not going to destroy Social Security. Raising the payroll tax cap isn't a big priority for Obama; he brought it up as another way to take a shot at Clinton. Did he use bad, rightist rhetoric in doing so? Sure, which is one of the reasons I'm not an Obama fan. But nothing in his campaign indicates that Obama has the all-encompassing fixation with the payroll tax that you seem to assume would lead him to dismantle SS.
Everybody said there would be a generational war when the Reagan/Bush bill came due. Generational war, in language designed to split the generations and make the rugrats feel morally superior to Boomers is right in Obama's speeches. He knows exactly what he is doing, and this I bet is what Krugman sees.
359:Stras, listen to Obama's speeches. He isn't hiding anything.
Generational war, in language designed to split the generations and make the rugrats feel morally superior to Boomers is right in Obama's speeches.
Language like what? The only pot-shots I remember Obama taking at baby-boomers and the sixties were transparently coded references to the Clintons. Unless you mean that all rhetoric about "change" targets the "rugrats" and incites their (imaginary) deep-seated loathing of baby-boomers.
Stras, listen to Obama's speeches.
I have listened to Obama's speeches. He talks about vague, squishy, feel-good change, and about putting "the past" - i.e., the Bush/Clinton years - behind us. Every vague, squishy, feel-good change candidate talks like this. And every vague, squishy, feel-good change candidate appeals more to young voters than to old voters. There is no targeted assault on baby-boomers here. It's not always about you.
"But nothing in his campaign indicates that Obama has the all-encompassing fixation with the payroll tax that you seem to assume would lead him to dismantle SS."
Goolsbee & Liebman, his top two economic advisors. You don't put a top SS privatiser #2 on your economic team and expect me to trust you. especially not with Obama's divisive rhetoric.
Goolsbee & Liebman... a top SS privatiser
You're going to have to back up the notion that (1) these people really represent "top SS privatisers," (2) they really have that strong an impact on Obama's economic agenda, given that none of the policies he's focused on over the campaign have had anything to do with privatization.
463:See, that's the thing about candidates like Obama. I can go and fisk Obama's speech last night, pointing out every line that alludes to putting the 60s behind us, and you will still say its about Bush/Cheney. But Obama will claim a mandate for change if he gets elected, because it is right in his speeches.. This cult of personality politics is fucking dangerous.
Obama. OOObbbaaammmaaa.
465:1) Liebman, "LMS Plan" I'll go get a link, but I know it won't make any difference. Obama is just so pretty, he must be good.
2) And how do I prove #2? It isn't as if a SS privatising candidate will openly admit it. The Obama tactics are exactly how it would actually get done.
I for one would be perfectly happy to put the 60s behind a, at least when it comes to divining the intentions of presidential candidates lo these 40 years later.
456: dude, I'm spinning too, & to the extent I'm spinning less it's because I'm more ambivalent.
Bob, if Obama's so much against the Sixties generation, why did he specifically mention the civil rights movement in his victory speech? I can see how some of the rhetoric about putting 'partisan food fights' behind us would rankle, but I really don't think you can make a case for his being a dedicated anti-Boomer.
Also The Doors. Can we put them behind us, too? I heard "Riders On The Storm" this morning and man, that is a silly song.
Clinton failed to see the cultural importance of Obama girl.
I can't imagine what makes me stupid enough to get in Bob's line of fire, but here goes: I'm so ready to put the 60s behind me. Really, I am. I want no more people in power who tote the baggage of Vietnam with them everywhere I go. Does this mean I want to repudiate the hopes of that decade? No. Absolutely not. Do I want to revive some of the Great Society's humane views on poverty? Yes. I really do. Which makes me love Edwards. But when I hear Obama saying that it's time for a new generation to lead, I agree with him. And if you think that he's snowing the snot-nose kids, well, that's fine. But allow that Stras may just be right: the kids might like him because he's moving beyond generational wounds that they can't fathom caring about.
Nonpartisan Social Security Reform Plan ...pdf
Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick
"The plan achieves sustainable solvency through progressive changes to taxes
and benefits, introduces mandatory personal accounts, and specifies important details that
are often left unaddressed in other reform plans. The plan also illustrates that a
compromise plan can contain sensible but politically unpopular options (such as raising
retirement ages or mandating that account balances be converted to annuities upon
retirement)"
So pwned by Sifu. Also, Sifu, I don't think I was that out of line last night. Was I? I didn't have a drop to drink. That was just my naturally sunny disposition shining through.
(though he was kind of a dick about Dean 4 years ago, which I should probably let go. I haven't had much problem with him this go round, no doubt in part because I like his candidate.)
bob, give me a break with the generational war stuff. I'm as sentimental as a person born after 1978 can be about the 1960s without shading into absurdity. But the idea that because your generation's hopes about that period weren't realized mine shouldn't even try, & if we do we're either naive idiots putting daisies in guns whose time could be better spent plotting the revolution, or we're trying to steal your social security, I reject.
yes, but does Obama support the Liebman plan? Not unless he's an idiot. I don't think he's an idiot.
It's a good idea to never take anything I say too seriously.
And how do I prove #2? It isn't as if a SS privatising candidate will openly admit it.
What are you talking about? George Bush was an SS privatizing candidate, and he ran on SS privatization in 2000 because he wanted to privatize SS. Obama isn't talking about privatizing Social Security; he's talked about raising the cap on payroll taxes, a policy which - and I've pointed this out on this site at least a dozen times - has also been endorsed by John Edwards, who no one would accuse of harboring a secret desire to destroy Social Security.
Obama is just so pretty, he must be good.
I've said this a couple times by now, Bob, and I'll repeat it for you: I'm not a fan of Obama. I don't like him. I was depressed by his win tonight because he's not an anti-corporate candidate, and he's not a real liberal. But you seem to think that he's Satan in disguise. Not only is Obama not the devil, he's considerably better than Clinton, the only candidate associated with a record of actually trying to dismantle and privatize the welfare state. Nevertheless, you'd rather have Clinton than Obama, for reasons which more or less seem to boil down to your paranoid suspicion that his candidacy is all about bashing hippies, when all he's doing is peddling standard-issue change rhetoric.
Tweety and other Bostonians--It *is* fucking cold, but I heard that it's supposed to be 60 on Sunday.
Now, on to politics
1.) Huckabee. I've heard that Huckabee made some serious foreign policy gaffes, pretending that people were advising him who deny that they've ever spoken to him. If the money establishment were behind him, as was teh case with GWB, this wouldn't be a problem, but since they've already got their knives out, I think that it could be.
2.) Enh, I can't remember what I wanted to say, so numbering my comments was silly. I'm also coming down with an icky cold. I thought I'd beaten it a few weeks ago, but I think that the cold weather weakened my immune system.
476: You were born AFTER 1978? Holy smokes. The internet is a magical mask.
"Tonight" should be "last night." I don't actually live in Beijing.
Also: I'm almost painfully handsome. And rugged. Does my crisp prose convey my rugged handsomeness? Or my handsome ruggedness? I sure hope so.
477:See, what can I do?
If Obama had Yoo & Addington as his top legal advisors and said "No, No, I don't support the Unitary Executive or the Bush/Cheney policies" I hope you would be just a little skeptical.
stras the more of this I see the more in awe I am that you're actually trying to make Bob stop being paranoid.
To break out the dread quote from the candidate's website:
Obama is committed to ensuring Social Security is solvent and viable for the American people, now and in the future. Obama will be honest with the American people about the long-term solvency of Social Security and the ways we can address the shortfall. Obama will protect Social Security benefits for current and future beneficiaries alike. And he does not believe it is necessary or fair to hardworking seniors to raise the retirement age. Obama is strongly opposed to privatizing Social Security (emphasis added.)
Do you really think Obama's choice of Liebman for one of his advisors means that his stated position on Social Security is a stalking-horse for a privatization plan?
Oh I'm sick of hearinf about the SS shortfall. There isn't one. It's the rest of the budget that's in trouble. Now, if we'd been running surplusses or at least not running deficits for the past 8 years, we'd be fine. Fuck Bush. Fuckity, fuck.
485 s/b 486? If so, I think we should drop this, since the chances for productive discussion seem fairly slim.
485: It's the inconsistency of Bob's paranoia that gets to me. Why fixate on Obama and Social Security when the Clinton campaign is loaded up with cruise missile Democrats with a demonstrated love of foreign military interventions, an indifference to civil liberties, an eagerness to expand the powers of the executive branch, a pathological hatred of unions and a wink-wink attitude towards torture? It's like worrying about your receding hairline and ignoring the gunshot wound to your torso.
Bob, John Edwards has a couple hawkish liberals on his foreign policy team. But everything he's actually said about Iraq and foreign policy indicates that he's got no real interest in starting new wars. The presence of one conservative economic adviser doesn't mean Obama is secretly out to destroy Social Security.
488 to 486
487:It is actually more about the economy and the General Fund and avoiding tax increases than really about SS;Bush always wanted that SSTF money moved to equities to keep the bubble(s) going, and other possibilities. But that is a very complicated economic story.
Or not. Watch the economy crash in 2008 and wonder where the Keynesian fiscal stimulus is gonna come from in 2009. Tax increases on the wealthy? No way. Big public works programs? They will boost the stock indexes, "recapitalize the finance industry" with billions of SSTF bonds converted to stocks.
Now Sweden & Peru have private accounts, these aren't new or completely horrible ideas. The problem is that Sweden doesn't have assholes like Republicans that will get back into power in 2012 or 2016. Obama trusts that President Fuckwad will be ok. He likes Republicans.
"Clinton failed to see the cultural importance of Obama girl."
Edwards failed to see it too.
And more or less, that sums up exactly where we are right now.
January's going to be interesting. Nevada is going to end up being really key.
Obama had better hope Edwards does well on Tuesday. A two way race with Clinton is not safe for Obama quite yet.
Obama's speech on Social Security at the National Press Club.
Aww, the hell with it.
Ooooobbbbaaaammmaaaa.
(Sorry I couldn't find a full transcript.)
481: actually, temporary brain freeze. I was born IN '78.
the Keynesian fiscal stimulus is gonna come from in 2009
I think the problem with the economy is bigger than fiscal stimulus can address. There needs to be some big structural changes in the economy, including a pretty broad re-regulation of the financial services industry and a massive change in health care. Republicans' only dog in that game is obstructing it as fiercely as possible. That's why candidates who begin from a position of reaching across the aisle make me worried that they don't quite grasp the nature of the game. They'll only get their hand bitten.
There is no targeted assault on baby-boomers here.
[rant]
God, I wish there was, though. Baby boomers seem fine with running the country into the ground, tsk-tsking at anyone younger for not doing what they did pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps, and want progressive immunity for it because they might have seen the Kent State photos in the newspaper.
Two years ago the idea that something needed to be done to save Social Security wasn't crazy, and as near as I can tell, Edwards and Obama have the same plan. Doesn't matter. The most entitled generation (the Great Society guys? MLK? FDR? NOT BOOMERS.) in history is going to retire soon so there's no way in hell anything changes until they all die off and we get to clean up the mess.
Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick
MacGuineas? My two brothers and I are MacGuineas, but mostly McGuineas.
re: 500
That will unleash a can of boomer worms..
is going to retire soon for various values of soon. For this 47yo that soon is two decades away at least (that includes the extra two years of labor that Greenspan sentenced us to). I was reminded of this yesterday by the annual SSA letter. You kids, quit dancing on my grave.
The worms crawl in, the worms crawl out...
Also, I think Petey's right to the extent that Obama needs to do better with older voters because younger voters, iirc, are historically a little unreliable. Not always their fault, but e.g., if you're in college or young and moving around a lot, you might not be able to establish residency in time to vote.
Best worms, ever, obviously. The worms that invented sex, and having a good time.
Edwards, though, will be fine even if he can't make inroads with urban voters. Right, Petey? Keep spinning.
Any Dem is going to have a lock on the urban areas vs. a Repub. For god's sakes, Salt Lake City got gerrymandered into three different congressional districts. Focusing on the urban vote sounds like a recipe for winning the popular vote by millions, and still losing the electoral college.
That will unleash a can of boomer worms.
Worms don't scare me. I eat rare pork.
502: Probably. But the whole 'Obama and the youth are betraying the spirit of the 60s with running policies that are going against what policies the boomers want now after they've become all comfy middle class' is getting old. No one I know my age expect Social Security to be there when we retire. Most of us want health insurance, and it's always someone older telling me that we just need to get it, along with a nice pension, through our jobs.
Shorter me: Half of you boomers grew up to vote for Reagan.
Hillary's breaking down a barrier too & it means the most to older female Democrats.
A-fucking-men. That said, *every* older woman Dem I know, all of whom are straight up Hillary supporters, will vote for Obama, no problemo, if he wins the nomination.
Bob, stop being such a grinch. If Obama gets young people out to vote? More fucking power to him. We've been trying to figure out how the hell to do that for years.
Why does Hillary's breaking down a barrier mean the most to older female Democrats? Are younger female Democrats indifferent, or "post-feminist," or what?
Who among the Democrats has foreign policy experience? Isn't that what the three front-runners lack, and isn't that what a veep can bring?
They've all served in the Senate; they all have foreign policy experience.
The only major candidates with no foreign policy experience are Huckabee and Giuliani.
508: I bet you'll like this story, then: http://fray.com/drugs/worm/ . It's about what happened when a man ate raw beef one too many times. If you're not Apo, think long and hard about clicking.
512: I'm not certain, but I'd guess that younger female Democrats don't see it as the landmark in quite the same way that older female Democrats do. It's a big deal, yes, and increasingly embarrassing to the U.S. that we haven't managed it (and ridiculous that 'but the Muswim tewwowists won't wespect a woman' always gets out there when India and Israel have managed it), but a lot of the big stuff that the older generation struggled through was already knocked down by the time the younger generation had to think about things like careers. Not that feminism is over, but we've been about building on breakthroughs, not about the breakthroughs. I guess the best way to put it is that I'd guess a lot of younger women don't feel like Clinton is our only shot at the White House.
Why does Hillary's breaking down a barrier mean the most to older female Democrats? Are younger female Democrats indifferent, or "post-feminist," or what?
I'm curious about this too, and I'm in that younger group that doesn't support her, but I'm not sure why. Would I never vote along gender lines?
This country elected Reagan and Bush Jr. Foreign policy experience means jack shit with regards to electability.
Are younger female Democrats indifferent, or "post-feminist,"
Basically. Most of the (liberal) women I knew in law school were pro-Obama if they were political at all (shocking). They seemed to be of the position that her being a woman wasn't really a big deal, despite the fact that, you know, we haven't actually had a woman president.
Shameful confession? I don't think I'll vote for Clinton in the primaries (not that it matters what I do, since Obama will win Illinois anyway), but I secretly hope she becomes the nominee. I can't explain why I want her to be the nominee, but I don't want to vote for her.
I've decided it's because I'm a self-hating feminist.
517: Is it any less embarrassing than the fact that every single president ever elected has been white?
Does anyone know of a good source comparing Edwards and Obama's war positions. I'm trying to send stuff to my aunt. I think she's getting snickered by Obama's talk about uniting the country. Her vote in Oregon doesn't count, but I might be able to get her to make a donation to Edwards.
517: That sounds about right to me. Something that really encapsulates this is a story Clinton has told about an elderly woman who approached her at a rally and said "I was born before women could vote, and I'm looking forward to voting for a woman for president for the first time."
I'm in that younger group
Keep telling yourself that Heebie.
I'm in that younger group that doesn't support her, but I'm not sure why. Would I never vote along gender lines?
Can't remember where I saw this, if it was local news or CNN, or whatever. Young woman, 18 or 20 I think. Basically said "there will be a woman president in my lifetime, it doesn't have to be Hillary".
Here's another thing I wonder: Does experience really matter? If you look at someone's political career, don't they often sour as often as improve?
Everyone has advisors, and who you pick as advisors is more a matter of character than of experience. Isn't it a matter of surrounding yourself with experienced advisors who have the same core values as you, and isn't someone younger more likely to be idealistic about the core values?
514: I'd worry about Obama and Edwards, since one was a Senator for all of three weeks before he started running for President, and the other's been out of the Senate for a while. Not really worry, but perception-worry.
Keep telling yourself that Heebie.
I'm sixty-five years young!
"Why does Hillary's breaking down a barrier mean the most to older female Democrats? Are younger female Democrats indifferent, or "post-feminist," or what?"
There's some of that--we do take a lot for granted--but I also think we're also just more susceptible to the countervailing arguments: more unhappy with the democratic party establishment & the way Washington functions, more bitter about the war, more apt to be swept up by the charismatic young candidate & less weight to the experience argument, and comparably excited by the prospect of the first black president as the prospect of the first female president.
This article on Obama by Matt Taibbi is perhaps the best piece I've read yet on the Democratic race. The piece was written two weeks ago, and basically predicts his victory last night:
http://www.alternet.org/story/70714/?page=entire
521: Not in the same way, in that it's embarrassing for different reasons and there isn't an easy comparison with other countries. 50% of the population, give or take, is female.
The whole thing about SS not being there when {group} retires is yet another GOP idea that has taken root. I heard it in ther 1970s and 1980s and 1990s. I believed it in the 1st two decades and I agreed with the corollary that came with that message: something radical must be done now. Now, I am beginning to suspect it is part of the con. Another reason why I favor Edwards over Obama. The latter dances too close to that line.
As to healthcare, a friend of mine dropped dead Tuesday and a big factor was that he wanted to put off dialysis as long as possible because he would probably end up unemployed and without health care to pay for the dialysis . So he gambled and, 6 weeks after turning 60, he died. Go Edwards.
Is it any less embarrassing than the fact that every single president ever elected has been white?
From a demographic standpoint, I'd say yes. Women have always been half the country, but whites even today are 75 percent.
upon preview, Cala beat me to it
comparably excited by the prospect of the first black president as the prospect of the first female president.
all of 529 characterizes me very well.
Health care simply has to be addressed.
Employers are going to start not paying for it. Employees are going to start bitching more and more about it.
509:No one I know my age expect Social Security to be there when we retire.
And with that expectation, it probably won't be. Gotta ask why? What exactly is the mechanism you expect to be used to kill SS? There is no reason it shouldn't survive idefinitely if people want it to survive
What exactly did this boomer do that you should hate me? I opposed Vietnam, favored all sort of liberation for everybody, helped turn the country around on the environment, got a big tax increase and slashed social programs in the Reagan administration. I have never imagined voting for any Republican.
The rugrats have this image of boomers...
re: 536
The rugrats have this image of boomers...
Based largely on the things they say and the things they do, unfortunately.
532.2: Jesus, I'm sorry. That's horrible.
I'm a weird in-between age (born in '68) such that I don't belong to the boomers and don't belong to GenX or whatever it's called now. I feel equally at ease with either. My only issue with the Boomer generation is the half of it that won't quit fighting the fucking Vietnam War. I mean, 30 years after the pullout and it was *still* a lead issue in the 2004 campaign.
A majority give us Reagan & Bush while a smaller more progressive % explains how: (1) our generation doesn't believe in anything or try to change anything, unlike yours, and/or (2) our generation is naively putting daisies in guns when actually we are DOOMED. In short, we can't do anything right.
Everyone has advisors, and who you pick as advisors is more a matter of character than of experience. Isn't it a matter of surrounding yourself with experienced advisors who have the same core values as you, and isn't someone younger more likely to be idealistic about the core values?
See, this sounds good apart from the fact that we heard it 8 years ago. Though, the "matter of character" seems likely to be a powerfully distinguishing factor.
that said I quite agree with the first paragraph of 536.
Apostropher:
Stop conceding our moral superiority!
We are the greatest generation. Those under 38 and over 41 can SCREW OFF!
Are younger female Democrats indifferent, or "post-feminist," or what?
No and no, I think. Most of the young women I know--and I bet a lot of us here are like this--feel really torn about not supporting Clinton. We *want* to vote for her. But when push comes to shove, we're wary about one or the other aspect of her platform, and we can't get past that.
I also wonder if part of the problem is aesthetic. I think Clinton represents a sort of suburban safe feminism that we're not sure what to do with. I'm really talking here about how she looks and dresses. In that sense, we're probably "post" feminist; at least, "post" a particular kind of self-presentation that reads, to us, as "safe" and therefore feels at odds with "feminist." When I hear her talk, she *sounds* right; but when I look at her, she looks, I dunno, too soft, too aggressively normal. I really think this is part of her image as the "insider"--the suits, the haircut, the makeup.
541: Where as now, Bush has eight presidential years of experience!
A candidate's advisors and the interaction with them is terribly important.
Isnt that what doomed Carter? Smart people around him, but paralyzed by competing ideas.
Well, the people that Bush surrounded himself with have been a crucial factor in the way his presidency has gone. Just not a felicitous one.
Also, I am an Obama girl because he's like, my role-model. Bi-cultural? Check. Raised overseas in part? Check. Law school? Check. Public interest law/community organizing in Chicago? Check.
I sometimes dream about growing up to be him, so, there's that.
The number of totally lefty young people who are pessimistic about Social Security is just astounding. That whole 90's Gen-X scam really worked. It works because it's of a piece with the old-corporate-people-are-raping-the-planet thing, the generation in charge not leaving anything for the next one. When you hear people say that, you should say "Now you're talking like a Republican" and pat them on the head. They think they're being rebels.
The problem with Clinton is that she's more conservative and more religious than most of the Democratic Party. If you have a gut distrust of her, there's a perfectly good reason for it.
For people slightly older than me, indecision is a huge issue.
Reagan? Made a decision and sold it, right or wrong.
Which candidate will be a leader? Which candidate will pick a course and freaking go with it?
Clinton? eh, I am not convinced. Edwards or Obama? Maybe.
548:
Dont forget about the booty part, leblanc.
Isnt that what doomed Carter?
I was under the impression that it had more to do with not understanding how to work Congress. But what really doomed Carter was OPEC and Iran.
For people slightly older than me, indecision is a huge issue.
But "The Decider" must have soured this obsession a tad, no?
The whole thing about SS not being there when {group} retires is yet another GOP idea that has taken root.
Agreed completely. I don't understand why people always say "we don't expect it to be there for us!" Now, I don't expect it to be enough to make me *comfortable*, the way my dad does, but that's mostly because my dad doesn't really give a shit about money and I want to be able to travel or what have you.
Well, the people that Bush surrounded himself with have been a crucial factor in the way his presidency has gone.
It will be there as long as we want it to be there? Look, Social Security has survived by making tiny changes to an otherwise solid program as it's needed it. It's also a system that depends on having more workers than retirees. The boomers are going to be a bit of a challenge there, but it's something that we should be able to handle given a few little changes like Edwards' payroll cap raise.
But now we have a generation that freaked out because Obama, whose plan as near as I can tell is the same as Edwards, actually said what was conventional wisdom two years ago. There's no need to privatize it, but that's not what got everyone freaked out about Obama's plan. I am less than confident that we'll be able to do anything to maintain SS once the boomers are drawing benefits from it.
But "The Decider" must have soured this obsession a tad, no?
No. That is still an attractive feature to people.
Our country still wants someone who is willing to make a decision and kick ass. Even if they don't, we still want to hear that we are kicking ass.
Look at us now. Despite all evidence to the contrary, we are constantly willing to believe that we are about to Win the War!
But now we have a generationmedia that freaked out
I am less than confident that we'll be able to do anything to maintain SS once the boomers are drawing benefits from it.
The thing is, though, I understand that the math has been done, and the system works through the boomers with either no or pretty minor tweaks depending on how the economy grows. Your lack of confidence is intuitively appealing, but to the extent it's objectively checkable, I believe that it's misplaced.
548: I tease my wife about the fact that she graduated from a public school a mile or two away the same year that Obama graduated from Punahou. If only she'd gone to private school she could be running for President.
Re Social Security, it's worth noting that removing the payroll tax cap is a relatively clean and straightforward way to get an instant 12 percentage point tax increase on income over $100K, give or take. That's not crazy.
539:that won't quit fighting the fucking Vietnam War.
The reason the Vietnam War is important to me is tat it exposed some deep intractible attitudinal divisions in America, much the same divisions exposed on race, environment, feminism, religion etc.
Those divisions have not gone away, have given us another fucking war, and are still at the center of American politics. They are tribal. I am not fighting 40 yr old battles, I am fighting new battles with the same people, or people like them.
Obama apparently doesn't believe those intractable divisions exist or believes he can make the divisions go away with a smile.
555: It's moving from 'comfortable secure retirement' to 'oh, just fine, it's only that I want to travel that makes it too small' to 'huh, that'll probably be about half the food bill if I'm lucky and have my house paid off.'
If not having enough workers to support the retiree population is a problem, it's a problem regardless of whether the retirees' claim on the workers' production is called "Social Security" or "pensions" or "mutual funds" or whatever. You can't eat money any better than you can eat a statutory entitlement to money.
559: Media! Boomers!
560: I agree it doesn't take much more than scooting up the payroll tax cap or eliminating it to fix it. But look at the media freakout over a plan that does just that! Every election has always had some contingent of seniors in their walkers saying 'please, Mr. Wannabe President, don't take away my social security.' Now it's going to be enough seniors to do the whole production number in The Producers, but gah.
I get the irony in that basically, the Republicans said 'don't trust the government not to cock things up', then got into power and cocked things up (get attacked by religious fanatics? Go attack the secular power in the region and cock it up!), and now we have a bunch of young lefties not trusting the government not to cock things up.
Obama apparently doesn't believe those intractable divisions exist or believes he can make the divisions go away with a smile.
For "make the divisions go away with a smile", read "build a political hegemony that can sidestep conflicts in order to accomplish some progressive change", and I think you're in the ball park.
The concept of hegemony is useful when exploring rhetorically redemptive and unifying candidates. I don't think an Obama presidency would be as transformative as a Reagan presidency, but I think it would have opportunities that a Clinton I and Clinton II didn't and wouldn't.
And if you hesitate to call Reagan unifying, well, the divisions don't actually go away, they just get rethunk. Which can be much more lethal to the losing side.
Which is why I, with Ron Paul, support the move to a pork-based currency. (That'll be three hogbellies, a ham, and two rashers of bacon, please.)
563: No, because a really big part of that shift isn't what's happening to social security; it's what's happened to our expectations of what counts as "comfortable."
If SS gets cut, it'll be because once the boomers start dying off, the next generation will be too fucking cynical to bother to fight for it. Which is one reason why I think Obama's ability to get young people to the polls is a huge, huge deal.
the move to a pork-based currency
Plus, when you get your small change in bacon-bits, you can just eat it instead of looking for something priced in such a small denomination.
LB wraps up the Chopper/Apo voting bloc!
538. Thanks Heebie. I am certainly in the anger part of mourning. We so need better ways of providing health care and providing for people who cannot work.
532: I'm so sorry, md, that's terrible.
Here's what I love about Obama's "we must unifyize" rhetoric: if you say you want to transcend conflict to get things done, and then don't give amy meaningful ground on substance, you can make the other side the bad guy without losing anything at all. He isn't saying "I'm going to roll over", he's saying "if they don't play ball, blame them."
570: Maybe for some. I am seriously worried, with my parents ten years from retirement, not that they won't be able to take their dream trips, but that they won't get anywhere close to the expectations my grandparents had for their retirement.
Just catching 532: Fuck, md. That's awful.
576: Mark Schmitt's 'theory of change' article (http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_theory_of_change_primary) has a neat discussion of this.
md, that's awful. I'm sorry.
God, md, I wish there were something useful to say that could make things better. That's horrifying.
574- That is so sad and pathetic, md. Sorry.
577: Oh, my parents are and will be *much* worse off than their parents were. But that's because my parents haven't bothered to save shit, and their parents did--it's not because social security isn't enough. Fuck, thank god social security will mean my dad has *something*. My mom is screwed, because her work history is so spotty, but that's largely about untreated mental illness rather than anything else.
Yeah, my grandparents were all middle/lower middle class wage earners all their lives, and retired like wealthy people. Not crazy spending, but no concerns about money, travel whenever, and so on. My parents made much more money (inflation adjusted) lifetime, and are recently retired and nervous. Spending down a fixed amount of savings in a non-fixed lifespan is a nervewracking way to retire.
still at the center of American politics. They are tribal.
Agreed, but the whole SwiftBoat/traitor thing from 2004 just makes me want to slap people. The divisions are real enough, sure, but the actual war itself is 35 years past. America has an entire generation's worth of *current* issues to hate each other over that have far greater salience.
what people said about 532, awful.
The health care thing is what really blows. My parents have shitty insurance, and are getting old enough that getting better insurance is practically impossible, meaning that they'll continue with that shitty insurance that covers next to nothing, meaning that if either of them develops a cancer, it will be discovered once it's too late to treat.
But that's because my parents haven't bothered to save shit, and their parents did
In my family's case, it was more about the difference between defined benefit pensions and savings as a supplement to social security. Both sets of grandparents retired with pensions and SS sufficient to cover a very comfortable day-to-day life, and a chunk of capital from home equity to fool around with (move from one house to another and so on). My parents have savings, but they also have an indeterminant amount of lifespan left that those savings have to cover.
Another belated realization of what md said. Wow. Jesus.
Likewise on md's story. That is enragingly fucked up.
You know what makes me happy, though? This.
576: I think that's what Krugman misses.
591: apo, you shoulda heard Limbaugh on Fox News last night. He was pissed about Huckabee, and didn't care who knew it.
Thanks everyone. FUCK! I talked with him Monday night. I didn't hear from him late Tuesday when he said he would call. I thought he'd gone into the hospital. I called the hospital Wednesday morning and he wasn't there. I went over to his apt. building and the folks at the desk said they had noticed on Tuesday afternoon and gone to check. He was cold when they found him.
He was worried about the results of blood work he'd had that day. (He was a nurse--so he knew that creatinine over 5 was way bad.) But he had an appointment with his nephrologist for Wednesday and he wanted to put off the bad news. Mind, he'd been in the ICU for a week in December so he knew things were getting much worse. But getting back to work and not becoming unemployed was topmost in his mind. With bad kidneys, hypertension, and diabetes, he felt couldn't afford to lose his health benefits. I would say his being a Republican was ironic, but frankly the jest isn't amusing me.
When I hear her talk, she *sounds* right; but when I look at her, she looks, I dunno, too soft, too aggressively normal. I really think this is part of her image as the "insider"--the suits, the haircut, the makeup.
Coming up: B takes over as Hilary's campaign manager, tatts up the candidate, posts photos on Suicide Girls. Poll ratings among urban grrls skyrocket!
B takes over as Hilary's campaign manager, tatts up the candidate, posts photos on Suicide Girls.
I'm picturing a tv spot with Hillary doing pull ups like Linda Hamilton in Terminator 2.
still at the center of American politics. They are tribal.
I think one of Obama's central beliefs is that people are sick and tired of refighting those old battles, tired of the intensity and toxicity of partisan rhetoric, and a language of unity that sidesteps a lot of that stuff can be a big winner.
Then the question is whether he himself really understands the nature of the partisan challenge any new Democratic president would face. He's extremely smart so I don't doubt gets the lay of the land. But as is generally the case with a great politician, it's very hard to tell what his own deepest beliefs and committments are.
conventional wisdom two years ago
was wrong. That's why the Dems were right - not just smart, but RIGHT - to hold fast against Bush and not give an inch of ground.
Every time a young lefty says, "SS won't be there when I retire," a Republican grows wings. Bat wings with claws that he uses to tear apart puppies before he eats them.
Seriously, people - Dean Baker showed conclusively that it was bullshit as far back as 1998, if not earlier. Kill Zombie Lies!
I will admit that, his right-friendly rhetoric aside, my biggest skepticism about Obama was that he actually could create and draw on a new political block. Given that any Dem could win this year, a Dem winning 52-48 not by crushing Rs (rhetorically) but with kumbaya BS would be stopped short by the first filibuster (with its attendant Incredible Shrinking Presidency headlines). But if Obama wins 60-40 because 5 million new voters came out inspired by his Hopetalk... that's formidable. And that's what we saw last night. Let's see if he can keep it up.
597: It's not just the unity rhetoric, because we've heard that before. It's the difference between reaching across the aisle in the hopes that they'll give you ground and reaching across the aisle because that side of the aisle is a fucking mess and we all know it.
On the Social Security stuff...you wouldn't believe the credibility that this (IMO verging on ridiculous) line of rhetoric has among "thoughtful, non-partisan" types in DC. It appeals to some deep-seated pre-rational desire among them to sit in the middle, stroke their chins, and talk about how both parties are irresponsible. It's absolutely maddening. That's why Obama set Krugman off...after a while you get a visceral emotional reaction to hearing that stuff.
I think people are underestimating what a (potential) fuck-up Obama on Social Security is. The fact that Social-Security-is-doomed was conventional wisdom 2 years ago and is not now means we actually won on an issue, and Obama is risking giving that victory away. The basic stance on Social Security reform is this: no reform. The only permissible reform is we make Greenspan give back the money he took from us the last time they "reformed" Social Security. We had a deal motherfuckers -- no reneging, even if you spent the money on hookers, blow, and the Iraq war. Come up with the money owed us, or we're breaking some kneecaps.
Why Bob in 493 is potentially right: why is Obama so popular with Wall Street? Why wouldn't they go with Clinton, who is the most straightforwardly pro-business candidate? Because if the government sets up private accounts, Wall Street gets to bathe in money. The Obama campaign just needs to let a couple of major contribution-bundlers know whats up, and the money rolls in. I'm not sure that I believe this theory (the idea that Obama is popular on Wall Street is pure anecdote), but it's not impossible.
The basic stance on Social Security reform is this: no reform.
Why are progressive bloggers so hell-bent on protecting income over $80k (is it up to $100k?) from taxation? Seriously, I don't get it.
That's not the issue. The issue is buying into the Social-Security-is-in-crisis frame. This frame has to be broken, otherwise the destroy-Social-Security-in-order-to-save-it lives to fight another day.
The Democrats have been a bunch of spineless wimps on basically every single issue except Social Security.
I'm not sure that I believe this theory (the idea that Obama is popular on Wall Street is pure anecdote), but it's not impossible.
Well color me convinced. That's pretty scary stuff!
Obama's economic advisors are apparently not particularly leftist.
A little late:
But if Obama wins 60-40 because 5 million new voters came out inspired by his Hopetalk...
This doesn't have the feel of a high turnout election to me. 2004 had great turnout, but there were some specific factors that won't apply in 2008 (1) it followed the closest presidential election in our lifetimes (2) both Republicans and Democrats thought the stakes were high (3) the polls were tied for months on end.
More viscerally, I just think Bush has been such a polarizing figure that there will be some letdown in the first election in which he isn't dominating the political landscape. It will be like a world series without the Yankees.
I ban myself for that analogy.
really, only a boomer could write something so self-obsessed as 457
Yoyo is a punk, and not in the good sense.
I didn't know you hippies liked any 'punk.'
609: Late to the party, but a)I'm not a big fan of [commenter-name] is [negative-attribute], in general, rather than [comment-number] is [full-of-shit-or-analogue]. If so and so has been around long enough for you to form an opinion of him, he's been around long enough for you to notice that you should ignore his posts (e.g., B and I don't yell at each other anymore). b)yoyo says whatever is on the top of his pretty little head. He's taken a lot of shit and kept on posting, and I respect that in a cussed sort of way. I, personally, like hearing unfiltered opinions, however dumb, coming from a non-stupid person. If you don't, then don't read them. It's just a shame that the man has the world's only jello-mounted keyboard.
