Spread rumors that he has a black lovechild.
McCain will be targeting Obama non-stop from this point forward. As will Clinton. In other words, he's going to be fighting on two fronts, whereas Clinton can concentrate on finding a message that actually resonates with voters (Hillary, please start by firing Mark Penn. Yesterday.). And that's Clinton's best shot at taking Obama down. At the very least, we should learn a lot about his ability to play hardball.
Clinton will not be concentrating on finding a message that resonates with voters. It will be all attack from here on out.
There's a possible scenario that's too horrible to articulate.
C'mon B, spill. Drugs? Michelle Obama admits to her longtime affair with Catro? BHO announces that he'll choose the reanimated corpse of the Honorable Elijah Muhammad as his running mate?
She should withdraw. This is tough, it isn't as if she is in this for the money or fame, she surely thinks that the country will be much worse off, like more people dying and stuff, if Obama gets the nomination.
But it's time to unite the party and go after McCain. Anything she could do to win now would cost more than it is worth.
That affair would be with Castro not Catro. That said, either would be a problem.
The reanimated corpse is hilarious.
No, I was thinking--and this is *not* anything to do with what HRC could do, simply a "what could derail this" question--um, a Bobby Kennedy situation.
3: I doubt it; she's got to be aware of the risks to both her own campaign and to the Democrats in (the) general. I suspect that the Clinton and Obama camps will start negotiating March 5 at the latest.
Throw salt over your shoulder. Knock wood. Whatever.
If it happens, I'll be curious to see if HRC pulls away from WJC, political advisor. I think he will want to fight to the last body, but then he doesn't have a political career for which he can look forward.
10 to 8. And don't think a day goes by that I don't think about the same thing.
It hadn't occurred to me until just now, but suddenly all the Kennedy comparisons seem really creepy.
11: He does seem to revel in the bloodsport of politics more than she does. Which isn't to say that she doesn't love the contact sport element of it. Just that she doesn't seem quite as delighted at the prospect of getting really dirty. But I suppose that could change in the next couple of weeks.
12, 13: Eh. If he gets shot, he gets shot. He knew the risks. And these days, I trust the SS to do everything they can to prevent it. I've always assumed the shooters would wait for him to win the general, though.
14: I think WJC's used to wining that way. He has such great political balance that he can more or less survive anything himself. If he can call the whirlwind down on everyone, he ends up being the last person standing. I don't think she has that particular skill, though.
I don't think she has that particular skill, though.
It looks like not. And also, Obama is unlike anything either Clinton has contended with before. His refusal to be goaded into a nasty fight has been hard on Bill, I think.
12:Obama is not the only one to worry about, but I don't think HRC will get close enough to be endangered. If rational considerations applied.
And these days, I trust the SS to do everything they can to prevent it.
It would be a fun fight to watch, a '92 era WJC against an '08 Obama. I'd take WJC, I think.
I realized today that I kind of think Obama's best shot was this year, because he (I think) is getting a push from Dems angry at the Dem Party for the last several years. In '12 or '16, that anger might not have been there. And going forward, he differently positioned than he would have been had he not run, even if he doesn't gain the Presidency.
I mean you wanna play with scenarios, a black shooter getting McCain in October is one to think about.
I can't say the thought hasn't occurred to me (there was an unbelievably classless moment a few weeks back when some news anchor had brought it up w/ Ted Kennedy, but it had occurred to me long before--it used to come up all the time in interviews with black voters) but I'm kind of over worrying about it. The secret service knows what it's doing. You should, however, throw salt over your shoulder.
19: This year? No way. Beating Jerry Brown & Paul Tsongas in '92 despite Gennifer Flowers & various other negative stories does not prepare you to beat Obama in '08. I do agree is benefitting from the current political dynamic: he's a very dramatic break with the current situation at a time when the country desparately wants it--think of the years of "right track/wrong track" polling.
Or maybe John Edwards stabs Ron Paul to death.
20: Who runs in McC's place in this scenario? Huck? Pawlenty? Brownback? Cheney? Jeb?
Or Ron Paul blows up Federal Reserve hq.
Maybe, in a true blast from the past, Jack Ryan.
This year? No way. Beating Jerry Brown & Paul Tsongas in '92 despite Gennifer Flowers & various other negative stories does not prepare you to beat Obama in '08.
12 years experience as a Southern Govenernor vs. a first term Senator? And you say no way?
One of Hillary's biggest problems is her history; she represents the past reality of how bitter the struggle has been to stand for anything liberal, bashed from the left and the right. Obama stands for hope and unity. Bill, obviously, was not in 1992 encumbered by years of right-wing slime. There was some, from his days in Arkansas, but nothing like the years of his Presidency.
Also, Bill's a white male. So, more experience, more popular color, similar ability to charm and inspire, but also able to charm the working class...I don't think there's even a question.
Does this fictional race take place in '92 or '08?
Or Ron Paul blows up Federal Reserve hq.
And Mike Huckabee starts healing cripples on live television.
Clinton did not particularly have a reputation for charisma until late in the '92 campaign, when it became obvious how much he loved pressing the flesh. Before that, he was the bland technocrat of the media's dreams.
Mike Gravel kills Mitt Romney because he thinks Romney's a cylon. And Gravel is correct!
Clinton still has a Senate seat and a respected place in the Democratic Party. One hopes that she'll get up tomorrow morning and take a hard look at her hole card.
Mike Gravel does something or other. I've got nothing.
I predict that, in light of the Clemens hearings, Pelosi starts throwing non-HGH-assisted fastballs.
Myth. Dream. Yes. But I live it.
Does this fictional race take place in '92 or '08?
I guess in '08. In '92, WJC would have/could have shot Obama to prove that he wasn't captured by the black special interest. (I don't think Obama's anything but a protest candidate in '92.)
Jesus, now that I start looking at all of the possibilities, maybe I'll vote for Clinton after all.
Mrs. Fred Thompson has a threesome with the Kuciniches. Chris Matthews takes it much worse than Fred Thompson does.
Mike Huckabee starts healing cripples on live television.
Specifically, the people crippled in the bombing of the Federal Reserve HQ.
40: Now we're getting somewhere.
This is probably the Rorschach blot aspect of political campaigns, but I find that I like Hillary more than Bill. Though I never made up my mind between her and Obama, I'm sorry to see that she's going to lose. I never felt very positive about Bill, other than his not-Republicanness.
but I find that I like Hillary more than Bill.
I think most people do. And I don't think it's clear that she's going to lose.
Cindy McCain bites John's head off on national television. Literally.
I keep reading that as Federal Reserve BBQ.
Hillary sells her party connections and experience to buy Obama Gore's endorsement. Obama sells his voice (like in the Little Mermaid!) to buy it for Hillary. Gore uses these to win a brokered convention and is about to win the presidency when
To be continued
Short of some sort of delegate shenanigans at the convention, I don't see how she wins at this point. The more people see of Obama, the more they like him. Clinton would have to arrange for all of the TVs in the country to lose power between now and March 5th to win.
Wasn't Clinton in '92 pretty much in the same position Obama is now? Clinton having appeal back then because he wasn't at that stage your average Democratic candidate, he was relatively new and still a somewhat unknown factor, taking on a Republican candidate hindered by his involvement in some pretty sleazy affairs, not to mention an economy going into recession?
But thinking that Clinton could beat Obama now? I doubt it. The zeitgeist is wrong for his triangulation to work, as people are sick of the Republicans, sick of wimpy Democrats and want somebody who's idealistic, optimistic and who makes them feel good about voting for him.
Clinton was popular, but he lacks that Kennedy-esque optimism that Obama has. Besides, voters want to elect the first Black president, not just another southern white male. So boring.
I'm also not seeing how her campaign can be salvaged. It's another big margin Obama win, and with each contest he steals more of her base. If she had an answer to this, we would have seen it by now.
What I'm wondering about, seeing all this fromt he outside, is how much attention McCain is still getting now he's going to be the republican candidate barring a heart attack or Huckabee bullet. The Democratic race is so much more dramatic and interesting that I would expect the media to focus most attention there, which could only help whoever becomes the candidate in November. The primary as a sort of standin for the real election. Is that acutally happening?
Mark Penn will no doubt explain that it's only a flesh wound.
50: The Democratic race has for some reason gotten more media attention than the Republican one for quite some time, even when it was the Republican field that was more interesting. On the other hand, the media loves McCain, so he's bound to get a certain amount of press no matter what.
Viable scenarios for a Clinton win remain.
Most involve wins in Texas and Ohio, which aren't enough in themselves, sure - maybe a ~30 delegate swing to Clinton between them. But that's not all that's left.
PR's delegate allocation practices make it, potentially, a ~60 delegate swing for Clinton.
Seat Michigan and Florida for another 47 delegate swing.
Obama is up by ~70 delegates right now, and will probably pick up more in other primaries, but enough to put Clinton away decisively?
After that, it will come down to superdelegates and the delicate fact that "pledged" delicates aren't, in fact, enforceably pledged and generally aren't bound in law either after the first N rounds of balloting, with N varying by the state which sent them. Expect remarkably intense competition, and a fair bit of smoke-filled backroom settlements.
Clinton certainly doesn't have an easy road to the nomination, but if she wants to take it to the convention, she certainly can. In so doing she buys herself a few more months for an Obama collapse.
52: Whatta maroon. Someone needs to explain to her in very short words that anecdata from her upbringing in NYC may not be the perfect tool for figuring out how Obama's parents got together in Hawaii. Among other things. But hey, at least she's not racist. She says so herself.
HC: Obama is going to win every contest from here on out. It's over.
That's not nice, Katherine. I clicked on the link, only to find out I'd gone to... that site. Links to NRO should be marked NSF*.
Seat Michigan and Florida for another 47 delegate swing.
This seems like it's also increasingly unlikely. Not unlikely that some sort of deal getting them in won't be struck, but just handing all of them to Clinton?
1. Lose 10 straight primaries by double-digit margins.
Walt - even if Obama does, there's nothing in his victories stopping Clinton from hanging on until the convention. Proportional representation means that he just cannot pick up enough to win from the primaries. It would take an establishment revolt to close off all hope of pulling it out at the convention for Clinton, and while that may happen, it has not as yet.
2. Obama's delegates are carried off by flying monkeys.
That's why the Founding Fathers introduced the ornitho-simian clause in the Declaration of Independence. They anticipated everything.
Clinton's 17-point loss in Wisconsin actually is the closest she's come since Super Tuesday. The comeback is underway!
If anyone wants to see the domestic terrorism scenario filmed well, please watch Mark Pennington's film Arlington Road. Tim Robbins plays a professor studying extremist movements - essentially the academic version of Dave Neiwert - who finds trouble close to home. It is a story of the triumph of evil.
Arlington Road is a good movie. But Robbins doesn't play the prof. Jeff Bridges does.
Right, it's notorious Hollywood right-wingers Tim Robbins and Joan Cusack (isn't Phillip Berrigan her godfather?) as the maybe-maybe not militia members, in a nice piece of stunt casting.
Hillary will take her winning states and secede as the STC (States That Count). Obviously, civil war will immediately break out as both countries want the new Lakers with Paul Gasol.
The outmatched STC commander general, Mark Penn, begins spinning off States That Don't Matter All That Much until down to Ohio and New York.
Forces brought back from Iraq pin the Clinton army down to its last stand- the New York Stock Exchange. After Ohio teacher union members suffer significant losses, the Clintons conditionally surrender on a book deal.
64: shivbunny introduced that movie to me. It's very well done.
I still think it's too early to declare Clinton out of it. Texas and Ohio are firewalls to the extent that if she does win them, she's close enough to argue over superdelegates. She's unlikely to win at this point by a large enough margin, but how close does she have to come for it to make sense for her to stay in?
I'm hopelessly hoping it stays classy.
69- If she was at all competitive in the last ten states, I'd completely agree. But she hasn't come close to contesting ANY of them. The firewall can't hold up. I'm now certain that Texas goes to Obama.
I agree with what Ari from South by South West or whatever it's called said upthread. Clinton's best hope is that Obama's campaign deflates over the next two weeks. I can see that happening if McCain can't dig with focused attacks on Obama because he's still busy trying to consolidate his base, but I don't see that as likely. Even though Huck did show up in Wisconsin his margin wasn't close enough to renew his purchase through Texas. If McCain tries to rally the conservative base by attacking Obama, he'll only confirm the fact that Obama is the frontrunner and give Obama the chance to act like it.
From Clinton, nothing but shenanigans for the next two weeks.
67: That's "Pau Gasol".
Clinton was popular, but he lacks that Kennedy-esque optimism
Clinton definitely ran on a Kennedy-esque platform of hope, youth, and renewal following 12 years of decrepit Reagan & Bush-ism. That photo of the young Clinton and JFK was a campaign talisman at the time. And, as I recall, it worked, mostly.
But I think you're right that there was something about Clinton that always made him seem an unlikely stand-in for JFK, something that Obama seems to have tapped into more successfully. Maybe Clinton was too charismatic, or maybe his brand of optimism lacked an accompanying Yankee coolness that Obama and JFK seem to share at times. Or maybe today it takes a young, African-American Senator to stir people in the same way that a young, Irish Catholic Senator did in 1960.
she's close enough to argue over superdelegates.
You know, you'd think that the prospect of rioting in the streets would cheer McManus a little.
68 is a lesson in how efficient an Unfogged comment can be. Let's all try to learn from SP.
I can see that happening if McCain can't dig with focused attacks on Obama because he's still busy trying to
consolidate his base find his keys.
the jfk analogies weren't as substantive with clinton as they are with obama
Does anyone have actual popularity numbers on Kennedy? He barely beat Nixon, but that doesn't necessarily mean his supporters weren't very enthusiastic, or that he didn't become more popular later.
76 made me laugh. Even as it frightens me about McCain.