Re: Predictions: A Test

1

Krauthammer probably didn't mean this one seriously, but like your mother always said, never give a cripple a break.

Mine would say that he's not crippled enough.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:12 PM
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In this forum last fall, I predicted that oil would be $100 by Christmas and $150 by summer.
My competition, noted reality-based economist John Quiggin, predicted a 3-5% annual increase in oil prices that would pose no significant economic difficulties.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:20 PM
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that President Obama and the Chinese withdrawal from Tibet sounded nice, pity it was fake


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:22 PM
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As usual, I called all this shit in 07.


Posted by: Joe Drymala | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:26 PM
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Judge me, oh internet!


Posted by:
Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:28 PM
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In a response to Krauthammer, I would say the delicate balance between demand destruction and dollar devaluation makes the price of oil a year from now less predictable. Cheers.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:28 PM
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And judge my failure at html!

jJudge.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:28 PM
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6: Not to worry, china will take up the demand slack, with a bit of help from india.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:30 PM
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In this forum last fall, I predicted that oil would be $100 by Christmas and $150 by summer.

The last year has been glory days for catastrophists. Best time since the late 70s.


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:30 PM
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It's up and running... I'll add these, but of course you won't see them until November.

http://www.punditpredictions.com/


Posted by: mrh | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:31 PM
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8 was tongue in cheek, but I think there is a possible monkey wrench in all such predictions in that we might see a significant supply drop in the next few years...


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:31 PM
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The next six months will be important for the future of predictions.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:33 PM
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I predict that the Senate leadership will force John McCain to cast some votes that will hurt him in the campaign. Such are the awesome powers of my political predictive mind.


Posted by: Joe Drymala | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:33 PM
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10: You rule.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:35 PM
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mrh doesn't mess around. Conception to execution, baby. Of course, he'll abandon it as soon as his kid is born.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:35 PM
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Joe Drymala has forgotten his American Idol prediction.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:40 PM
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I've been trying to keep an eye out for predictions, but I managed to read that one from Drum without noticing it.

As for Krauthammer, two observations:

1 - The column containing his "prediction" is actually sensible, if a bit obnoxious.
2 - This fact should in no way moderate the loathing that decent people feel for Krauthammer.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:41 PM
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Of course, he'll abandon it as soon as his kid is born.

No kidding, right? I need to monetize this thing quick.


Posted by: mrh | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:43 PM
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Of course, he'll abandon it as soon as his kid is born.

Unless it gets popular enough to generate decent ad revenue, and then it'll be a godsend.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:43 PM
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See? I have kids. I know what he's thinking.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:44 PM
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The column containing his "prediction" is actually sensible

Not really, insofar as he seems to assume that the "real" price of gas won't rise so much that an added tax would become punitive/impossible to pass. Not to mention that he recommends decreasing the payroll tax by as much as we increase the gas tax, instead of using at least part of the gas tax revenue to fund alternative transport.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:44 PM
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21: Yep - my comment was just the Overton Window in action. Krauthammer writes a stupid column that isn't insane, and I get suckered into describing it as "sensible." Shame on me.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:47 PM
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21: I'm not reading the column, but I assume the decrease in payroll tax is meant to make it less punitive. (And, I assume, shift the tax burden down the income ladder.)


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:49 PM
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/05/AR2008060503435.html

George Will predicts that if HRC becomes BHO's running mate, she will unify the Republicans, and Obama will "define himself as someone who can be pushed around" and "reduce himself to a reflection of a reflection."

How do we submit to punditpredictions.com?


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:49 PM
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Oops.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:50 PM
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I think I'll put up a post tomorrow to see if folks can help fill out the site a little bit, mrh. When you have more predictions up, or more in the pipeline, you, I, We All can email Atrios, Drum, and Yglesias to let people know about the site.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:51 PM
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"reduce himself to a reflection of a reflection."

Awesome. Because only White Guys are rilly real, see.


Posted by: Gonerill | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:52 PM
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This is actually kind of cool; I wouldn't have the motivation to read an entire George Will column without the prospect of using it against him.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:54 PM
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Awesome. I just did a little backfilling, as you can see, and there are a few Apple predictions in the pipeline that should pop up in a few hours.

I'll grab Minivet's as well... So far, a whole lotta posts scheduled for November 5.


Posted by: mrh | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:56 PM
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I predict that I'll get a job by fall.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 2:56 PM
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I predict that as pundits become aware of the existence of this site, they will make less predictions, and the predictions they do make will be less daring.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:01 PM
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i predict i'll go home in august


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:02 PM
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31: Overall a big win, really.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:02 PM
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Overall a big win, really.

It's almost like you don't want my kids to be able to go to college.


Posted by: mrh | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:04 PM
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Joe Scarborough Dec 22, 2006 being a jerk as well as very wrong: Like Peter Brady's Bravo, Obama's shot at the top will be short lived. But since BHO is young enough, dynamic enough and (just) black enough to whip official Washington into a frenzy, expect this stupid story to stick around for a while. Soon enough though, this year's model will be shouting, "Please give a warm Chicago welcome to the next President of the United States, Hillary Clinton!"

(Not that anyone really cares about Joe Scarborough's predictions.)


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:04 PM
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I predict that Ben will be along shortly to correct the usage in 31.


Posted by: Not Prince Hamlet | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:05 PM
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37

YOU LOSE!


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:09 PM
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36: Please let me know what I did wrong, J. Alfred or Ben?


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:09 PM
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36: More predictions! Less Corrections!


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:10 PM
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40

I predict that this can of beer I'm about to drink in an unairconditioned apartment on a hot summer afternoon will be refreshing.


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:12 PM
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41

I win.


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:13 PM
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42

I'm reconsidering 31...Saiselgy has made a joke about his predictions (about politics, at least) always being wrong. Maybe bloggers will make more predictions hoping to attract attention from this new hot site.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:13 PM
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39: Now you're just trolling ben.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:14 PM
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Prediction goldmine from The Corner, late October 2004. Some good, some bad.

Michael Graham's is the best. The hilariously dumb Democrats try to run up the score in safe states in the popular vote and get all the way to 49%, but lose the electoral vote 367-171.


Posted by: Fatman | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:16 PM
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I think they're referring to "less" for a number, instead of "fewer." "Less" would be for a measure.

But not every good writer observes that distinction; Orwell didn't.


Posted by: I don't pay | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:16 PM
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43: More scolding! Fewer trolling!


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:17 PM
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47

Thanks, idp!


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:19 PM
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48

Bet on the filly


Posted by: Fatman | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:19 PM
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49

A contingent prediction:
if The Iraqi Government signs a Status of Forces Agreement before January 1 2009
then there will be a strike against Iran within two weeks after signing the agreement (either by Israel or the US)


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:21 PM
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Bush weighs in on 2/25/07:

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush predicted Monday that voters will replace him with a Republican president who will "keep up the fight" in Iraq. "I'm confident we'll hold the White House in 2008," Bush told donors at the Republican Governors Association annual dinner, which raised a record $10.6 million for GOP gubernatorial candidates.

Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:22 PM
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2/25/08


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:23 PM
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Joe Drymala has forgotten his American Idol prediction.

peep, ?


Posted by: Joe Drymala | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:28 PM
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I'm not sure self-interested predictions from politicians like the ones in 48 and 50 should count. What say you all?


Posted by: mrh | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:28 PM
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50: Come now, I think any president in the same position would be obliged to say that.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:29 PM
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10/11/07

Amateur freakonomist Stephen Dubner predicts Mitt Romney will win the White House


Posted by: Fatman | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:29 PM
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Yeah, 48 doesn't count. She was just making a joke.


Posted by: Fatman | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:30 PM
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57

I did predict the ticket would be Clinton/Obama back at the very beginning of the season. It's on my blog somewhere, I think, but my internet connection here is too slow for me to go dig it up. Feel free to do so, and to humiliate me accordingly.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:37 PM
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58

Yeah, OK. 50 = teh bad.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:39 PM
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59

I predict that the inflation adjusted price for gasoline in the US will never drop below 3$/gallon until the internal combustion engine is replaced as the engine of dominant mode of transportation in the country.


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:51 PM
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57: Here. However, in the post, I predict Clinton/Obama too. What's more humiliating, though, is my prediction that Giuliani/McCain will be the Republican ticket. Oops.


Posted by: m. leblanc | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 3:59 PM
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49 was an informative and useful prediction

59:I predict that last American gasoline will be used to BURN SHIT DOWN

I predict that more & more bottles will be made of plastic, ineffective as Molotovs. It's a plan.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:01 PM
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I like 59 as a prediction a lot. It seems quite likely, but not a complete lock, and it would have very real implications for future states of the world and spending. Hooray!


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:03 PM
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61: See, I'm more moderate than that. I'd place bets, but if you win you are not really in a position to collect.


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:06 PM
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64

Uh, folks, nobody cares about your predictions.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:06 PM
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What's more humiliating, though, is my prediction that Giuliani/McCain will be the Republican ticket. Oops.

Ain't over til election day, and anything can happen. And still wouldn't be over. Another 10-30 point drop in the polls for McCain, and the Republican convention could become exciting. And in any case, I think I have predicted here that McCain would not become President, and perhaps not the nominee. Was Kennedy's illness predictable?

Giuliani/McCain I would call unlikely, though.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:07 PM
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El Wrongo, ogged. Once this site gets established, you can add Bob McManus and selected others to the list of recognized "pundits" who are being monitored. After all, what makes someone a pundit?


Posted by: Fatman | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:08 PM
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64:Ogged is undemocratic, and objectively pro-David Broder & pro-George Will.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:10 PM
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64: Z Dieudonné Zoungrana of the L'Observateur, Burkina Faso predicts McCain.

As for him (Obama), given that some Americans view him not even African-American, but as downright African (his grandmother continues to smoke the Nyangogo pipe in Kenya), there is no question who will be the next tenant of the oval office.

Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:21 PM
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JP breaks the Nyangogo pipe scandal.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:24 PM
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I'm not sure if any of this fellow's articles contain testable predictions, but he is definitely a pundit worth watching.


Posted by: Fatman | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:29 PM
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After all, what makes someone a pundit?

Lack of common sense?


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 4:36 PM
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...and that's why Snoop Dogg will never be a pundit.


Posted by: Merganser | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 6:18 PM
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I will have the most recent comment on seven threads before I'm through.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 8:18 PM
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WRONG.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 8:21 PM
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Ogged, you need this site:

The intention of Long Bets is to encourage responsibility in prediction-making (by keeping a public roster of predictions), to encourage long-term thinking (by offering a opportunity to shape a long-term bet), and to sharpen the logic of forecasting (by recording the logic of predictions and bets.)


Posted by: Gaijin Biker | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 8:45 PM
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Yeah, someone sent me that, but I think they're doing something pretty different.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 9:24 PM
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Wanna bet?


Posted by: Gaijin Biker | Link to this comment | 06- 9-08 10:03 PM
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