Re: The Oil

1

So when the balloon goes up, Japan is even more fucked than the US. Chokepoints at both the Straits of Hormuz and Molucca.


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 11:54 AM
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hormuz is the sky in my language


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:10 PM
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3

So, the US uses approximately as much oil as the next 5 countries (China, Japan, Russia, Germany, India) combined.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:33 PM
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4

Respective populations
US: 304.2 million
Other 5: 2.81 billion


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:36 PM
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5

4: hey, we earned the right to be counted as five each.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:39 PM
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3: For now. China's going to be kicking our ass by the end of the century, is my prediction.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:44 PM
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7

Not if the oil runs out.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:45 PM
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8

US usage is approx 20.5 mil barrels a day, and each barrel is 42 gallons...divided by 304mil ppl, that's 2.8 gallons/day/person. That's....really easy to consume.


Posted by: Michael | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:46 PM
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9

8: Hell, I drank that much this morning!

I gotta pee again.


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 12:48 PM
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10

That's....really easy to consume.

I'm reminded of the scene in Over the Top where Sylvester Stallone's opponent in the finals of the arm-wrestling tournament tries to intimidate him by eating a lit cigar, then guzzling a can of Valvoline.


Posted by: toops | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:30 PM
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11

?then guzzling a can of Valvoline

Man, if you think Olestra caused problems...


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:32 PM
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12

1: It looks like the Japanese are gonna be just fine.


Posted by: DominEditrix | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:34 PM
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13

||
No more masturbating to Tim Russert, apparently.
|>


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:39 PM
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14

Keep in mind the US is also 22% of the world economy, so our consumption is on par. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html#Econ


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:39 PM
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15

guzzling a can of Valvoline

I am reminded of a similar but rather different scene in Three Kings.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:39 PM
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16

13: Wow. 58 years old.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:48 PM
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17

13. As TV reporters go, he wasn't too bad. He sure made hay out of his "Florida Florida Florida" prediction.


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 1:59 PM
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6, 7: China is gambling that the oil will last just long enough for them to industrialize and then they can switch to the mysterious Next Energy Source. They're thinking ahead, already investing heavily in wind and solar, but not actually relying on them while there's still oil.


Posted by: rob helpy-chalk | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:10 PM
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Keep in mind the US is also 22% of the world economy, so our consumption is on par.

Causality is probably more the other way 'round.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:12 PM
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A government is thinking ahead? How childish. Governments are economic actors and, as such, should only respond to the short-term market incentives.


Posted by: Super-@ss@ssin Daihatsu | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:12 PM
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21

17: Shortly after the 2000 election, Russert visited my university, where he was presented with a whiteboard by the university president.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:17 PM
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22

19. Meh- US was 50% of the world economy just after WWII, yet we weren't consuming 50% of the oil. Special set of circumstances, but still. All of a piece with not taking vacation, etc. Americans work more than other parts of the First World, and with greater productivity. Whether this is good or right is not part of the argument.


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:18 PM
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23

What a surprise. Death comes for the arch-pundit.


Posted by: FL | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:19 PM
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Russert visited my university

Did they also give him one of his 48 honorary doctorates?


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:25 PM
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You know, I can't remember. I don't think so, because it wasn't a graduaton-related festivity.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:26 PM
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22: post wwII was a very weird time, yes, and probably pretty useless in these sorts of comparisons.

I just meant an awful lot of the economy is driven by oil consumption. It gets complicated; real productivity numbers are difficult, the rough consensus seems to be longer hours, at lower productivity/hour, totaling more productivity. If you look at stuff like agriculture, big chunks of it have insane looking productivity (e.g. corn) relative to 50-60 years ago, but this is driven by fossil fuel consumption, and secondarily by tech facilitating that. So the point being that you can't really decouple the two.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:31 PM
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27

Man, the TPM graphic is weird-- it looks like Tim Russert is reporting on the death of Tim Russert. "Yesterday, you were alive-- but today you're dead. How do you reconcile those two positions?"


Posted by: FL | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:32 PM
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28

This is gonna be one of those alive-at-time-t, dead-at-time-t-2 things, isn't. Russert's slices are all I-related, or, they were.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:34 PM
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29

You would think that, wouldn't you.


Posted by: FL | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:37 PM
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30

(I don't know why I'm leaving out more words than usual today.)


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:37 PM
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31

26. Yep. Certainly US consumption of oil was influenced by the fact that we had domestic sources. Had we needed to import oil from the beginning, consumption patterns would be different.


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:39 PM
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32

"Yesterday, you were alive-- but today you're dead. How do you reconcile those two positions?"

You're killing me, Labs.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:40 PM
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33

graduaton

The hypothetical particle that will enable me to escape grad school, once I discover it.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:43 PM
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34

God, I wish that weren't a typo.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:44 PM
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31: Agreed. There was an interesting `bootstrapping' effect, in that developing international fields were on line in time to cover for falling domestic production capability, just at the right time.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:45 PM
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36

27 is genius. Bravo.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 2:48 PM
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37

Reading the Vanity Fair article about the Bass family, I was struck by how the second generation oil men were the ones who found the oil in Libya.


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 3:09 PM
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38

Death comes for the arch-pundit.

Hm, so if Russert was Lamy, does that make Yglesias Padre Martinez?


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 3:10 PM
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39

The hypothetical particle that will enable me to escape grad school, once I discover it.

Or annihilate you on contact. One or the other.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 3:11 PM
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40

The hypothetical particle that will enable me to escape grad school, once I discover it.

Or annihilate you on contact. One or the other.

Now I am become Shiva, destroyer of theses.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 3:23 PM
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OOps. Hunt Brothers, not Bass. http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/06/hunt200806


Posted by: Tassled Loafered Leech | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 3:30 PM
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42

8: that's 2.8 gallons/day/person. That's....really easy to consume.

Hmm, as far as personal transportation goes, I don't think I use that much in a month. Even factoring in 1500 miles per year of air travel and the resulting use of jet fuel, the vast majority of my share would have to be allocated to transporting stuff to Minneapolis for me to buy and use. Some of which has to be moved around, but much of which really doesn't. There was a table in the most recent number of Permaculture Magazine (UK), which pointed out that, for instance, 12 thousand tonnes of toffee is imported by the UK every year, while 13 thousand tonnes is exported. Doesn't take an economist to figure out a way to save a hell of a lot of the energy we use for transportation when you've got examples like that going on. As long as the political culture in this country finds it easy to spend $200 million on a new airport terminal, but nearly impossible to spend $2 million on a new city bus service, we're pretty screwed.


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 4:13 PM
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43

42: Most people commute.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 4:30 PM
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44

42: Most people commute.

And will for some time. Last year I drove about seventy miles a day commuting, and used a little less than 2 gallons; most people would have used more, and that's just gas.


Posted by: I don't pay | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 4:39 PM
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45

43: Your point being?


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 4:49 PM
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46

"Yesterday, you were alive-- but today you're dead. How do you reconcile those two positions?"
poor guy, um mani badmi khum
his soul must be wandering now as it is believed for 49 days to be reborn in one or another form
out of curiosity i looked up his biorythm chart and his physical cycle was at the lowest
maybe it's useful to check one's cycle from time to time and take some minimal precautions
the chart
though i thought if all three cycles align at the lowest point then like death occurs


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 5:24 PM
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47

oh, the chart is empty
if to insert the date of birth
all three cycles were negative i see now


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 5:30 PM
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48

45: That it's very easy to get to oil usage of 2.8 gallons a day if you consider that it's likely that half of that is getting to and from work. (And that's equating 'oil' in a one to one ratio with 'gas for the car', which I don't think is accurate.)


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 5:33 PM
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49

not to mention shipping on all the food you eat, etc.


Posted by: soup biscuit | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 5:37 PM
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2.8 is low. There are a whole bunch of children, prisoners, shut-ins, etc. that are included in that denominator.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 5:42 PM
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51

Right, so what I'm saying is, so much of what's consumed is not accounted for by individual choices, but rather the structure by which we consume. A structure that could be easily altered to allow for, say, more local agriculture, less long-distance exchange of fungible commodities, basic conservation measures that could be implemented on a large scale, etc.


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 06-13-08 6:03 PM
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