Re: Report from the goth club

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But cute girls, surely.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:37 AM
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Hey, Movable Type, stop eating my comments.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:38 AM
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Oh, there you are! Never mind.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:38 AM
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But cute girls, surely.

Only the ones I went with.

Well, and a few others.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:39 AM
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Ben posted this at 10:30 am local time - how bad could the club have been?


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:48 AM
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Sounds like most goth clubs.


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:58 AM
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DNA?


Posted by: Josh | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:01 PM
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DNA?

That would be quite a haul from my current location.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:03 PM
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Daytime goth clubs? What will they think of next?


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:04 PM
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Someone is grumpy this morning because he didn't get laid last night. Ben, the good news is that there may be a pickup artist "lair" in your area which offers "boot camps" teaching the seduction skills you need. You won't get anywhere by being a nice guy, that's for sure!


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:08 PM
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6 gets it right. What did you expect?


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:08 PM
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What did you expect?

I dunno, goth music, I guess.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:10 PM
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Actually, I rather like goth dancing.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:10 PM
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Whenever I see someone write "actually, I rather like *", it gladdens my heart.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:12 PM
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But cute girls, surely.

That hasn't really been my experience the times I've gone to goth clubs. Indie pop seems to have the highest percentage of good-looking fans out of the genres I follow, though I'll admit this is likely up to personal taste.

Overpriced drinks and bad dancing, sadly, are par for the course for virtually any social event.


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:24 PM
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15: You must've had bad luck. The high proportion of uber-hot women in the goth population is the main reason dudes of any stripe put up with going to goth clubs in the first place. (What exactly the women are getting out of said clubs I have no idea; there are proportionally, it's always seemed to me, far fewer attractive goth men.)


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:34 PM
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You say "bad 'industrial' music" as if that isn't redundant. What are some good industrial groups?


Posted by: toops | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:38 PM
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16: Well, admittedly I've never gone to the major goth clubs like Neo or Exit here in town, those may be different. I've just been to a few of the bigger goth nights with an ex-turned-friend who became a full-fledged gothic lolita after we'd dated.

Or maybe Chicago's just got a crappy goth scene. Wouldn't surprise me. It's always too cold or too hot for trenchcoats, and the salted winter sidewalks are an absolute bitch on boot leather and shiny metal buckles.


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:41 PM
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Too cold for trenchcoats?


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:45 PM
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My primary shield against the cold for three and a half years was a bigass black leather trenchcoat, until in my last year and a half I started using a less ostentatious ... trenchcoat. Your claim, it is strange to me.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:47 PM
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I miss the Victorian and Romantic gothim who used to be so abundant in my youth. I loved the girls in their fancy dress and the skinny boys in velvet waistcoats. I never see them anymore; I only ever see industrial/rocker variety goths. Boo.

Now you kids get the hell off my lawn.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:48 PM
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What are some good industrial groups?

Einstürzende Neubauten, of course. NWW when the mood strikes them.

I recall liking some Wumpscut, too, in a hokey kind of way, time back way back.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:53 PM
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19, 20: I'd far prefer something more insulated in the 20-degrees-or-less weather of the Chicago winter. A trenchcoat could work since it would provide an excellent windbreak, but it would require decidely un-goth-like fluffy sweaters for insulation purposes. Even the businessmen around here who are already wearing a full suit will switch to a greatcoat or overcoat for the winter months.

Then again, the hipster fashion strain that demands chucks, skinny jeans, flannel or t-shirt, and hoodie regardless of weather still holds strong around here. So I'm probably overestimating the effects of practicality on subcultures.


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:54 PM
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The high proportion of uber-hot women in the goth population is the main reason dudes of any stripe put up with going to goth clubs in the first place.

s/b 'put up with dressing in a corset'. Hot goth girls: tasty tasty tasty.

What are some good industrial groups?

If you need to ask, you're never gonna know.

max
['Why didn't you post the picture of the cutest goth girl in the world, young Ben? We coulda had a full ogged nostalgia attack while we were at it.']


Posted by: max | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:54 PM
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Oingo Boingo's "Wild Sex (in the Working Class)" is decent song about industry, as are the sequence of "Industry", "Dig Me", and "No Warning" from Three of a Perfect Pair. (I uploaded those last three, in the past. Isn't "Industry" great? Yes it is!)


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:57 PM
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einsturzende are kraut-zeuhl


Posted by: tierce de lollardie | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 12:58 PM
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the original industrial culture handbook hymns: Survival Research Laboratories (battling robots, not music), Throbbing Gristle, Cabaret Voltaire, SPK, NON, Monte Cazazza, Johanna Went, Sordide Sentimental (a belgian record label), R&N (what was this?), and Z'EV

cabaret voltaire, SPK and (maybe) z'ev are the most likely to persuade unbelievers -- z'ev only if you see a show i suspect (he's a virtuoso percussion dervish)

the gristle are rawther hit-and-miss all told; cazazza and went i never heard, non are faintly amusing in a horrible-noise-stupid-provacation type way



Posted by: tierce de lollardie | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:07 PM
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Holy Shit!!!!!

Three 2008 Nobel laureates from the United States lined up with President George W. Bush on Monday for an Oval Office photograph to mark their achievements.

[...]

The third laureate at the White House was Paul Krugman of New York, who won the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on international trade patterns. Krugman, a frequent critic of the Bush administration who opposed the recent $700 billion financial bailout, is a Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist.

Hey, I don't know how stable that link is - if anyone knows a better place for stable AP links, please provide.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:08 PM
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Z'ev? Huh.

Time back way back I had several Throbbing Gristle and Cabaret Voltaire mp3s and mostly didn't know what to make of them, I think.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:08 PM
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wiki: "z'ev requests that people note either "Z'EV" or "z'ev" are acceptable typographies for his "brand name" (context depending), but that "Z'ev" most emphatically is not."


Posted by: tierce de lollardie | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:11 PM
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Well EXCUUUUUUUUSE me.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:12 PM
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According to rfts, "wiki" is most emphatically not acceptable when referring to wikipedia.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:13 PM
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The only goths I ever see any more are mall goths...and although I have a tremendous soft-spot for them (so many end up working as lab techs, which is just darling) I admit to preferring the fussier kind.

Goth always seems rather suburban to me, though. I've met very few city-bred goths. I suppose the romance of industry and urbanism declines a bit when you actually live down the street from, say, Bituminous Roadways Incorporated.

The thing is, I only like affected subcultures where everyone is ugly and weird and bad-tempered--that's how goths were, back in the day. Now it's all adorability and showing off and heteronormativity so it might as well really be anything else. That's really the subculture arc--it starts out being weird kids with chips on their shoulders and ends up being the cleverer and more easily bored of the popular kids. (That's how riot grrrl went, back in my young day.)

Sigh. I am so too old to care about this stuff.

Anyway, mall goths have those silly wide pants and they're just hilarious.


Posted by: Frowner | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:13 PM
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South Park had a pretty good "Goths v. Vampires" episode last week:

http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/137227/detail/


Posted by: lemmy caution | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:22 PM
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How did the whole Goth thing not blow over, like, ten years ago?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:26 PM
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Because people enjoy the company of other people who share their interests and behaviors.


Posted by: Cryptec Nid | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:31 PM
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Ben, are you wearing pvc pants?

Actually, I rather like goth dancing.

The I-am-brushing-away-the-cobwebs-in-front-of-me kind or the I-am-hugging-myself-tightly-and-listening-to-music-only-I-can-hear kind?


Posted by: Populuxe | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 1:52 PM
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The Rosemary Locale is a music blog that specializes in all kinds of gothy sub-genres. Personally, I'm delighted by the sub-genre called "depressive."


Posted by: Populuxe | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 2:04 PM
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My Goth/BDSM scenester friend assures me that the scene is not the place to find the plain old hottest of the hot. The accoutrements are sexy in and of themselves, but it's a welcoming place for the fat and bald and don't-fit-in, and not the place to go if you're looking for pretty boys and girls with spidery makeup.


Posted by: Wrongshore | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 2:11 PM
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The I-am-brushing-away-the-cobwebs-in-front-of-me kind of goth dancing has an entire vocabulary of movement, none of which has ANYTHING to do with the music being played. It's actually kind of amazing, when you consider how bass-thumpy industrial music tends to be. Acknowledging the rhythm in any way was considered uncouth; I can't help suspecting racism plays a role here.

The only move I remember from my (very brief) goth phase was what was called "pick up the rose," which sort of looks like the kind of twee genuflection a herniated Elizabethean courtier might perform. I think there was a "twirl the rose over your head" coda involved.


Posted by: Jackmormon | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 2:45 PM
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I've long aged out of having a "scene" but I did once upon a time spend every Monday night at Goth Night at a local gay bar with a bunch of friends and still, when one opens the door to our shared closet, the light bends a bit towards my side as opposed to Rah's earth tones. I used to love going to goth night to make fun of people. It's a good ol' time for the catty sort, such as myself.

I can't help suspecting racism plays a role here.

Having observed plenty of that dance myself, that wasn't my impression. My data is only anecdata, of course, but the minorities I knew who were fairly goth danced the same dance and didn't seem to have any particular self-hate going on. These were rural and small-city goths, though, who were probably well behind the curve of whatever original intent came up with Screwing In A Lightbulb and Picking Up Loose Change as standard goth dances.


Posted by: Robust McManlyPants | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 3:07 PM
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Yeah, that might've been a bit too strong.


Posted by: Jackmormon | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 3:12 PM
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goths, goths, hmmmm. It is hard for me to understand how anyone might talk of a "goth scene" or "goth clubs", "goth chicks" or whatever. I live in Camden Town, capital of the Goth world, so these phrases are like "let's go to a beer pub" or "she was dressed in clothes" as far as I'm concerned. We have goths working in the post office.


Posted by: dsquared | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 3:17 PM
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42: I definitely wouldn't agree with racism as the default explanation but neither would I say there's zero potential for racism. The goths I know/knew find skinheads abhorrent but there's a definite awareness that they like some of the same music. Generally, of course, my goth crowd acquaintances skewed to the left by virtue of it happening at a gay bar.


Posted by: Robust McManlyPants | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 3:32 PM
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Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 3:47 PM
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OT, because it's infuriating and because there's nowhere else to put it:

Before Hillary Clinton has been formally offered the job as Secretary of State, a purge of Barack Obama's top foreign policy team has begun.

The advisers who helped trash the former First Lady's foreign policy credentials on the campaign trail are being brutally shunted aside, as the price of her accepting the job of being the public face of America to the world. In negotiations with Mr Obama this week before agreeing to take the job, she demanded and received assurances that she alone should appoint staff to the State Department. She also got assurances that she will have direct access to the President and will not have to go through his foreign policy advisers on the National Security Council, which is where many of her critics in the Obama team are expected to end up.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 3:54 PM
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That is infuriating. Too bad none of the bloggers here follows politics anymore.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 3:57 PM
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46: I think the Josh Marshall rule of not taking seriously any reporting in British papers about American politics should be followed here. I mean, The advisers who helped trash the former First Lady's foreign policy credentials on the campaign trail ? Come one.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 4:03 PM
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41:
Please don't neglect the important role that 'Kick the coked-out scenesters' and 'Oh God! The Spiders!' had in late-90s goth dancing in our small corner.


Posted by: Katmandu | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 4:06 PM
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Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 4:22 PM
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I support HRC's plan to kick out the coked-out scenesters from the State Department.

48 gets it right, and the hysteria in 46 is already undermined by the apparent selections of Jim Steinberg for Deputy SecState and Jim Jones for NSA.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 4:27 PM
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46 is already undermined by the apparent selections of Jim Steinberg for Deputy SecState and Jim Jones for NSA

Both Steinberg and Jones are hawkish picks with not much in the way of policy disagreement between them and Clinton. How do they undermine the notion that the foreign policy team is going to be weighted-down with Clinton types?


Posted by: inaccessible island rail | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:01 PM
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While we are OT on politics stuff, I am really wondering if we will ever get to know why Clarence Thomas agreed to put a nutjob lawsuit about the eligibility of Obama (as well as McCain and the Socialist Worker Party candidate) onto the Supreme Court docket for conference.

Anyway, after Donofrio's case was rejected at the state level, he presented it to Supreme Court Justice David Souter who rejected it. Donofrio then presented it to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas who put it on the court docket for a conference on December 5.

Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:19 PM
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That is odd. Maybe from now on we'll just expedite the whole choosing a president thing by bypassing the election and submitting the question to the Supreme Court.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:26 PM
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While having to deal with political enemies fatally undermined Colin Power,....

"Colin Power" was less successful than "Joementum". The movie, the TV series, the concept album, and the line of action figures have all been shelved.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:29 PM
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53: Actually, the more I think about this the more pissed off I am getting. The effing thing will get dismissed, but it will give (has already given) renewed "legitimacy" to the eligibility narrative and brings yet more overtones of politicization (no matter how farcical, which is its own problem) to an institution already suffering from it.

Impeach.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:30 PM
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Wait, what? How does that even work? So if I want to sue space aliens for beaming commands into my brain through my fillings, and only eight out of nine Supremes think I'm completely insane, all I have to do is keep presenting it to different justices till I hit the one who's willing to entertain my delusion?


Posted by: inaccessible island rail | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:31 PM
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55: But the licensed nutritional supplements seem to be doing okay.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:33 PM
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58 = me.


Posted by: jms | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:34 PM
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My few friends in HS were generally on the gothic end of the spectrum, although, being a ciy HS, there were only a couple of really gothy ones, so they had to amalgamate with the LARPers, theater geeks, lefty punx and queers. As Frowner points out, there doesn't seem to be much of a goth scene around here right now. Even my two favorite goths, the tiny girl and the huge gangly guy (which could describe about 55% of all goths, I'm sure) who worked at the used bookstore are nowhere to be found. Alas, poor gothicks.

||
So an acquaintance of mine who's really rather an odd duck (and kinda gothic when you come right down to it) has a new girlfriend. And she seems almost scarily normal. Except! Both of them are grad students in a modern European language. And when she mentions anything in that language, it's the whole white-newscaster-overpronouncing-Spanish-names deal. Is there any term of art for that phenomenon? And does it indicate anything else about the person? And moreover, do people in other countries who are really into the study of English ever do it? read, any thoughts?
Because if that's her only eccentricity, I can scarcely credit that they're going out, much less living together. But if the over-pronounciation is indicative of a constellation of other weirdness, then it kinda makes sense.
||>


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:36 PM
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"city HS" obviously


Posted by: minneapolitan | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:38 PM
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(as well as McCain and the Socialist Worker Party candidate)

The fact that Thomas put it on for conference after the election and he included two other candidates besides Obama suggests to me that he wants the Supremes to offer an opinion on what constitutes 'natural-born'. Assuming they find that the meaning of natural-born jibes with statute [two parents are citizens or one parent is a citizen and the child was born in the US, or simply the child was born in the US], the effect would be to quash any disputes in this area in the future...

max
['Then again, maybe he wants to get gothy with it.']


Posted by: max | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:48 PM
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McCain and Obama shared a foreign policy team.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 5:59 PM
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For those keeping score at home:

DSquared : Gothia :: Emerson : Wobegon.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 6:08 PM
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Noted without comment:

On Wall Street, Bernanke's reviews have improved, especially at firms that have received assistance from the Fed.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 6:13 PM
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Obama's CIA transition team is being led by ex-Bush officials tied to torture and cooked Iraq intelligence . It's very early yet, and I haven't at all given up hope, but so far he's looking like the Obama who cozied up to the bipartisan consensus around hte national security state as soon as he left Hyde Park and got real power. Glenn Greenwald has a long post on these and related issues, with a guest appearance from Digby, who says:

Liberals took cultural signifiers as a sign of solidarity and didn't ask for anything.

neatly summarized. Not that cultural signifiers are meaningless, but he was never your cool black friend, he's a pol who has to be lobbied.

But he is a smart guy and we really don't know yet how it's all going to play out.


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 6:19 PM
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I'm pretty sure this is OT..

||

It was early in the 1986-87 season, when the Boston Celtics got their first look at Dennis Rodman, the Pistons' precocious rookie. When Rodman came into the game midway through the opening quarter, his assignment was to guard Larry Bird. As per his personal game plan, Bird immediately took Rodman into the low-post to test the rookie's mettle.

However, before he could receive an entry pass, Bird suddenly yelped and jumped forward. When questioned by his teammates during a subsequent timeout, Bird blamed his unexpected behavior on Rodman's defense.

Instead of applying an elbow to Bird's back, or displacing Bird by putting pressure on the back of Larry Legend's lagging knee, Rodman had simply poked a finger up Bird's butt!

Thereby giving new meaning to down-and-dirty defense. ||>


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 6:22 PM
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whoops, it was all a quote.


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 6:23 PM
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receive an entry pass
...
poked a finger up Bird's butt!


Posted by: togolosh | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 6:24 PM
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I bet the dancing was bad only because you didn't get up and show 'em how, Ben.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 6:51 PM
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Barack says no free money to the auto industry. Just to finance. OK.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 7:18 PM
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Please don't neglect the important role that 'Kick the coked-out scenesters' and 'Oh God! The Spiders!' had in late-90s goth dancing in our small corner.

We need to go back now, except that I'd have to start smoking again.


Posted by: Robust McManlyPants | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 7:19 PM
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Barack says no free money to the auto industry.

Trillions for finance, not one cent for industry! Because.... um, the creative class will be working in the fields and won't need things like dirty machines! Yeah!

That's ok, apparently the Cutest Goth Girl in the World isn't good enough for the scene, man.

max
['It's banks and chicks with skin like the orangish corinthian leather vinyl* in my granddad's '82 Imperial all the way down.']

* as seen on that whateverthatis with Paris Hilton on TV


Posted by: max | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 7:34 PM
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Rachel Maddow makes lewd dog-whistle jokes on her show. Also, is she banging Dahlia Lithwick?

Also, she's really smart, and aggressive in apleasant way.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 7:37 PM
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cyber goth they say
i liked the guy with a kitty face best and some of them look just regular people


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 7:53 PM
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Maddow is the goddess of policy wonks.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 7:55 PM
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I have at least one Goth niece, probably two or three. They thin I look weird.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 7:56 PM
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77: well, sure, it makes sense that they're thin. And that you're weird.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:00 PM
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First time I did ecstasy was at a goth club. While wearing a black trenchoat! Boy was that a weird fit.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:02 PM
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I tried to convince them that having all your teeth pulled is mega-piercing, but they didn't buy it.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:04 PM
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Oh man, I bought some cloves earlier, and I couldn't figure out what the fuck inspired me to do that: it was totally this thread!

Unfogged: working on so many levels.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:06 PM
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Unfogged is dying. Slowly, but it is. Sigh.


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:47 PM
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Like you're helping, Mr. Mom-said-I-need-to-scythe-somebody-while-I-still-have-my-looks.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:51 PM
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79: Weird, but in the opposite direction. The first time I did ecstasy I was nekkid in a hot tub.


Posted by: oudemia | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:56 PM
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What is "scythe-ing" somebody?


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:56 PM
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I think you know.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:57 PM
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85: I imagine it is like hammer-ing someone, but with a scythe.


Posted by: oudemia | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:57 PM
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Sifu just can't stand the image of Larry Bird being sodomized by a black person. He's going to be haunted by that.


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 8:58 PM
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Sifu TweetyYou close 'em, you can't open 'em again! You can't change the world with one healthy fuel cell!
PGD: Tweety, Unfogged is *dying*. From my keyboard here, this is the last option.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:00 PM
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There should be a gay porn niche for lookalikes of famous athletes. I would totally pay to watch fake Rodman slip one in to fake Larry Bird, and I'm straight.


Posted by: Curious Andy Rooney | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:14 PM
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Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:17 PM
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karaoke, kara means empty, oke is orchestra


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:20 PM
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The first time I did ecstacy, it was the hands, or rather finger, of Dennis Rodman.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:22 PM
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I know I shouldn't respond but I'd seriously do kraftwerk karaoke in a minute.

Also, the Dennis Rodman move in question has a name.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:26 PM
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Unfogged is always already dying.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:33 PM
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96

82 -- When I started commenting here Unfogged was busy being born.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:35 PM
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97

Temptations page flies out the door. You follow, find yourself at war.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:37 PM
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98

84 makes a lot of sense to me.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:38 PM
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99

Dylan, yes.


Posted by: PGD | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:39 PM
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100

Kobe's been dead for months.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:44 PM
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101

But even the President of the United States must sometimes have to stand naked. In a hot tub. On ecstasy.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:52 PM
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101: ecstasy was available over the counter in Texas until 1986; I imagine it happened quite a bit.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:55 PM
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103

No sweeping exits or offstage lines.

The machine just came around to a Larry Keel version.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:58 PM
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104

102: I'm an awful person for wishing for a post-presidential bender come 20 January. But I'm a person nonetheless.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 9:59 PM
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You know what are really awesome? Central limit theorems. I did a bunch of fun little calculations with all manner of ridiculous distributions with that sucky beast, MATLAB, last night while waiting for my infant to fall asleep.

It's SO COOL.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:01 PM
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106

104: why wait?


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:01 PM
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107

105: that is absolutely correct. I will be learning those in the one class next week!

You know what else is pretty great? Gaussian distributions. I don't care if the data doesn't fit! I want my commutative properties!


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:04 PM
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106: excellent. By the way, if you ever get a Peruvian and a Chilean in the room, ask them both who invented Pisco. Fun will ensue, I assure you.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:04 PM
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Isn't it just the one central limit theorem, though?


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:04 PM
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110

107: I mean, I learned about it in my math methods class, but I didn't really get it until I tried it with a bunch of wonky-ass distributions.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:06 PM
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110: yeah it's more than a little bit magic. The central limit theorem is Nate Silver's invisible 12" cock.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:07 PM
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I had a Peruvian on my tour today. At least I assume he was Peruvian; he had an accent and kept telling me I should go to Peru.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:08 PM
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107: I mean, I learned about it in my math methods class, but I didn't really get it until I tried it with a bunch of wonky-ass distributions.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:09 PM
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Oops--I meant to say that apparently other convergences are possible--just of no consequence to us mortals.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:10 PM
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115

112: you can never tell, though. He might be from space.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:11 PM
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Some of his questions were a little odd, it's true.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:12 PM
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Hey, we need some more math on the possibilities of 2.9 million coin flips. The Franken-Coleman spread started out at 700, descended to ?140? or so, and now is at about 180. There's reason to believe that the final spread will be in double figures. So what are the chances on that?


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:12 PM
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116: "Who wants to sex Mutombo?" is standard protocol for a meet-up start-up question. Man, you're really slipping in your sorta-hiatus.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:17 PM
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My apologies to the Peruvian lurker (or regular!) on teo's behalf.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:18 PM
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Somehow I doubt he's a regular.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:20 PM
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121

About 4.8%.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:21 PM
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122

Well, 4.73%.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:23 PM
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123

A real square little fellow?


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:24 PM
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124

No.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:24 PM
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125

Oh wait, I did it wrong. Give me a minute!


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:25 PM
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Ah, no I didn't.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:27 PM
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127

You might want to get otto to check, though.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:28 PM
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128

You might want to get otto to check get blotto in the grotto, though.

I...I couldn't help myself, Sifu. I tried.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:30 PM
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Only 2.4 million of the votes were for Coleman or Franken. The number of votes for Dean Barkley's third-party candidacy looks like it was about 200,000% of the final margin of victory. Puts Nader to shame!


Posted by: Cryptec Nid | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:31 PM
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128: hey, pronto, stan dude.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:31 PM
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129: ooh, how many votes for barkley? I can put that in the model.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:32 PM
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My imaginary internet friends are failing me. Cosma knows this kind of thing.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:33 PM
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I stand by 4.73%.

Gaussian distributions are weird like that.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:34 PM
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I can give you my matlab code if you want to check, emerson.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:42 PM
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128, 130: I just went and reread that thread. Good times.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:47 PM
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Oh whoops, I'm retarded. Thanks to Po-Mo, I can now say that it's a 9.3% chance.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 10:48 PM
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... it's life and life only.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:10 PM
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So, teo, how are things?


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:21 PM
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Things are good.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:28 PM
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140

Good! That's very good. Things are good here, too.

Any other news?


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:29 PM
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We could pretend to be lonely presidents who need dates, again.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:31 PM
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We could, but who would notice?


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:37 PM
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Zombie Grant doesn't really check in that much anymore, does he?


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:41 PM
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I was actually pretty decent for the Suns last year.


Posted by: Zombie Grant Hill | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:48 PM
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I paid some poor schmo's tuition. He's probably going to study literature or something, though.


Posted by: Zombie Pell Grant | Link to this comment | 11-24-08 11:58 PM
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146

Who's that in my tomb?


Posted by: Zombie Ulysses S. Grant | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:03 AM
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Oh, like I'm some kind of punchline.


Posted by: Zombie Grant's Tomb | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:03 AM
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148

GOOGLES I NEED GOGGLES


Posted by: Zombie Horace Grant | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:04 AM
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WHAT WE NEED HERE IS GOGGLE SCIENCE!


Posted by: Zombie Land Grant University | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:06 AM
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150

Actually, my father deserves a lot of the credit.


Posted by: Zombie Horace | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:06 AM
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151

Uh, I just rhyme?


Posted by: Zombie Horse | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:07 AM
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152

Damn, I missed four already


Posted by: Zombie Hors | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:08 AM
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Le Grant! Oui!


Posted by: Zomb Alors! | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:09 AM
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154

You can guess what I'm made out of.


Posted by: Zombie Hors d'Oeuvres | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:10 AM
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I'll be worth a lot someday. You'll see.


Posted by: Zombie Railroad Land Grant | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:11 AM
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156

YOU KNOW WHAT? SOMETIMES I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHY THE FUCK I'M HERE, RIGHT, POKEY? FUCK. POKEY. FUCK. RIGHT, POKEY?


Posted by: Gumby's Rant | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:13 AM
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157

So I see.


Posted by: Zombie Huntington | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:15 AM
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158

I shot Zombi's mother.


Posted by: Zombie Hunter | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:17 AM
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159

Zombie Livingston, I presume?


Posted by: Zombie Stanley | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:17 AM
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braiiiins


Posted by: Zombi | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:18 AM
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161

Mr. Stanley, I exhume?


Posted by: Zombie Livingston | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:19 AM
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162

You fool people rip me off!


Posted by: Fela Kuti | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:20 AM
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163

Brains, I presume?


Posted by: Zombie Livingstone | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:21 AM
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164

I'm tired of scavenging for brains.


Posted by: Zombie Livingston's Seagull | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:26 AM
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165

iiiiiiice braiiiiins


Posted by: Zomboni | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:28 AM
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166

In some ways, it's impossible to really understand the brains that you're eating unless you're out there, with the brains in your face, cracking skulls as you need to, teaching your little boy that these -- these -- are the brains we eat in America.


Posted by: Zombie and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:29 AM
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167

For a little while, I was falling in love.


Posted by: Zombie Space Age Love Song | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:29 AM
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168

Zadrian!


Posted by: Zambo | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:34 AM
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169

Mother!


Posted by: Zumbo | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:36 AM
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170

Zis. Zis is an outzradj.


Posted by: Zorro | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:37 AM
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171

Oh, me? I'm just guarding this hen-crypt.


Posted by: Zombie Zorro | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:39 AM
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Hen-cryption h'is h'no h'laffin' h'matter.

Hurk.


Posted by: Drunk Zombie Bruce Schneier | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:43 AM
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173

Ironically, I am more human than a human.


Posted by: Zombie Who Is White | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:43 AM
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174

173: racist.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:54 AM
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175

I am the master of all Zombies.


Posted by: Don the Beachcomber | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 12:55 AM
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176

122: I got that, too.... weird.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:01 AM
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176: my initial problem was considering only the values 50 on either side of 2.9M/2; in fact you should be considering the values 99 on either side of 2.9M/2. My matlab code:

sum(binopdf([2900000/2-99:1:2900000/2+99],2900000,0.5))

Try it!


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:05 AM
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Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:09 AM
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176: I was out doing my 15 miler during the coin flip discussion (2 hr 15 min or so). Do your long runs on the weekend, kids!

Anyway, I get a ~5.1% chance of a 2.4 million coin flip (i.e., leaving out the Barkley votes; I suppose we could use a multinomial distribution with 3-sided biased coins, but what's the point?) experiment yielding at most a 99 vote margin:

>> Fvs = 1211375;
>> Cvs = 1211590;
>> N = Cvs+Fvs;
>> binocdf(N/2+49.5,N,.5)-binocdf(N/2-49.5,N,.5)

ans =

0.0507


Posted by: Otto von Bisquick | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:13 AM
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180

Brains...I need brains to harness the power of the atom for the Reich...


Posted by: Zombie Linguo-nurse | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:13 AM
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181

But otto I think you're only accounting for half of the space.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:14 AM
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181: But if we're doing, e.g., N = 10 coin flips, 3 H => 7 T. That's a 4 vote margin. So we'd want to integrate from N/2-2 : N/2+2. I'm no Cosma, but I think you had it right the first time. Po-Mo disagrees?


Posted by: Otto von Bisquick | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:19 AM
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He does! Because the 4 vote magin is key, so you also want N/2 : N/2+4 and etc.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:22 AM
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If you included N/2+4 (assuming, again that we care about 4 vote margins in this case), you'd be including the 9 H 1 T case, which would be an 8 vote margin. Reductio ad absurdum?


Posted by: Otto von Bisquick | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:23 AM
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Ah, right. Didn't go far enough. To 100, right!


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:24 AM
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186

But it's not 10 votes, it's 2.9M votes.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:24 AM
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The coin has to land on its side 14% of the time to account for the Barkley votes!


Posted by: Cryptec Nid | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:24 AM
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188

All I can do at this point is redump my matlab code.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:25 AM
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I'm always embarrassed to find functions I've written already in the libraries. So dumb.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:37 AM
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183,186: Yes, but it's a toy example that can help us think through things. If I'm understanding your183 correctly, you're proposing a series of N Bernoulli trials yielding N/2 votes for one guy and N/2+4 votes for the other guy. But that would be N/2 + N/2 + 4 = N + 4 votes. So right there you're proposing that N trials would yield N+4 results, which is crazy talk.

But again, I'm just a dilettante.


Posted by: Otto von Bisquick | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:37 AM
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Okays so we have a total of 2.9M votes, right?

Given that those votes are divided two ways, what we want is the chance that one of those votes will total between 2.9M/2+99 (which is to say, 99 votes ahead of the opponent), and 292M/2-99 (which is to say, 99 votes behind the opponent). So the total number of possible vote totals we're dealing with = 199. So, we want the sum (over the 199 values) of the probability that the total votes for Y = [2.9M/2 - 99:2.9M//2 + 99]. Right?


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:41 AM
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2.9M/2+99 (which is to say, 99 votes ahead of the opponent)

This is where I disagree. If one candidate gets 2.9M/2+99, then the other candidate automatically gets 2.9M/2-99, which is a margin of 2*99 = 198. Because votes for one imply votes for the other, the margin grows as double the offset of the leading candidate from the mean.


Posted by: Otto von Bisquick | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:44 AM
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otto is right. like our earlier selves. the max margin in your case is (2.9M/2+99)-(2.9M/2-99) = 198, which is not in double digits.


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:45 AM
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Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:45 AM
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If you had a biased coin, only off to one part in a thousand, you'd expect the election to be w/in double digits


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:51 AM
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It's a definitional thing: Because each experiment can have only two outcomes, k successes => n-k failures. If k = n/2+f, for some offset from mean f, then n - k = n - (n/2 + f) = n/2 - f. Then the margin, which is k - (n-k), is equal to 2*f. So if we want a margin of 99, we need f = 49.5.


Posted by: Otto von Bisquick | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 1:52 AM
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||

Some say it is wrong to make fun of the Chukchi, but one has to admit that they have some of the dumbest folk tales of all time.

|>


Posted by: Cryptec Nid | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 2:01 AM
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198

197: That is not dumb, but rather is awesome.
Oh, the people were quick to die.


Posted by: Nakku | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 4:44 AM
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I go to sleep and everything turns into zombies and statistics! It seems fitting, somehow.


Posted by: redfoxtailshrub | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 5:34 AM
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200

It is also, sadly, a fact that Dsquared has admitted to liking Therapy? Given the correlates of Therapy?, red hair, and Camden Town, my model predicts a notional G-value for Dsquared of +0.6, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 5:35 AM
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201

re: 200

Heheh.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 5:56 AM
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I was told there wouldn't be any math or statistics on this blog that couldn't be done with an online calculator.

To that end, I end up with the same result as Otto using this online binomial probability calculator. The probability of the exact even result is .0515% and over the range of outcomes in question it is essentially flat* (.0514% with a 98-vote margin), so ~98*.0515 or ~5%.

*You get to a single outcome that is half as likely as the exact even one just short of a 2000- vote outcome (assuming exactly .5 probability).


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 6:21 AM
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197: At first I thought it said: and, lol! iron-footed reindeer came at his call.

I think from now on I will mentally replace all lo!s with lol!s. It makes everything seem so much friendlier.


Posted by: mcmc | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 6:23 AM
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203: Works for me.

LOL, how a Rose e'er blooming from tender stem hath sprung!


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 6:29 AM
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The cattle are LOLLing, the baby awakes
But little Lord Jesus no ROFLMAO makes


Posted by: tierce de lollardie | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 6:33 AM
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LOL, unto us a child is born! (Marching hymn of the War against Christmas)


Posted by: OneFatEnglishman | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 6:33 AM
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Pwned!


Posted by: OneFatEnglishman | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 6:35 AM
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I'm going to tell people 5%, and if they laugh at me I'm going to come looking for Otto and Sifu.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 7:03 AM
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I agree with 5%.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 7:24 AM
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Not that cultural signifiers are meaningless, but he was never your cool black friend, he's a pol who has to be lobbied.

This is right. I wish liberals would start lobbying him, then.


Posted by: inaccessible island rail | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 7:44 AM
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210: Is Obama the reverse Putney Swope?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 7:56 AM
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that folktale is not a genuine folktale, but a product of imagination of the maritime man
who tells fairy tales about defecation and copulation, all words in the fairytales are so perfectly fitted coz it was told so many times from generation to generation so that you can't drop a word without loosing some meaning and totally small kid friendly and resemble like some river stone, very smooth and round
instead i recalled a chukcha joke, pacifist
so a chukcha's standing on the guard and asking coming soldiers the parole - stand still! who are you? parole? - airplane, -airplane, -airplane
-tank - no, it's airplane, come on in


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:23 AM
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Posted by: | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:23 AM
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Read: "parole" should be "password"


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:28 AM
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OK, essear, I'll come looking for you too. If my imaginary-friend statistics software fails me, my wrath will be terrifying to behold.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:33 AM
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thanks a lot.


Posted by: dış cephe | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:37 AM
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"parole" should be "password"
a watchword, webster says, i looked it up now too
but sure thanks


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:41 AM
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The suitor said to him, "Indeed, you are a woman. For that very reason I have come to you." He said, "Now, here! See my spear!" He looked at it. It turned into a needle-case. He copulated with (this one). (The visitor) took his wife home [and brought her there]. His herd was very large. He took a barren doe and anointed her [with it], but the blood did not adhere. He took a castrated buck and anointed her, but the blood was too slippery. He took another reindeer, but its blood was also bad. (He took) an old doe, its blood was bad. He took a doe three years old, its blood was bad. He took a doe two years old, its blood was bad. He took a buck three years old, its blood was like water. He took a buck two years old, its blood was bad.

Read may be right that these are just stream of consciousness blather .


Posted by: Cryptec Nid | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:43 AM
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-o


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 8:46 AM
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66: this is encouraging. I wish I had more confidence in liberal blogs' effectiveness in generally--there seems to be less interest in actually lobbying Obama than: 1) arguing that X, Y, or Z shows he's not really progressive & that his supporters need to stop being celebrity-worshipping cultists; 2) arguing that it's too soon to pressure or judge him about anything before he takes office; 3) mordant prophesying about how The Village won't allow him to accomplish anything & the DC Establishment hates liberals, etc. etc. (Digby is currently driving me batty writing a series of posts about how a commission to investigate torture won't happen and would be futile anyway, and we won't learn the truth and the truth isn't enough w/o prosecution and prosecution REALLY won't happen because the village won't allow it. I mean, quite possibly--I'm quite pessimistic about prosecutions between pardons & the CW that it's a political third rail, less so about an investigation--but it would be really nice if liberals would actually extend some effort to lobby for a public accounting & prosecutions before giving up. And a lot of the explanations for why an investigation won't go anywhere are based on very silly reasons--yes, witnesses can keep stonewalling, but they no longer can count on the executive branch keeping all the documents classified, refusing to seek or enforce contempt sanctions, etc. etc. etc.)


Posted by: Katherine | Link to this comment | 11-25-08 2:01 PM
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220: That is slightly encouraging - although it pisses me off that he was in the running in the first place.


Posted by: inaccessible island rail | Link to this comment | 11-26-08 7:30 AM
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I don't know how to "lobby for" things.


Posted by: Cryptec Nid | Link to this comment | 11-26-08 7:55 AM
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I don't know how to "lobby for" things.

Time to learn, then. Brain dump on how to use web 2.0 as a lobbying tool (5 million people contributing $5.00 via PayPal as PAC money)?


Posted by: OneFatEnglishman | Link to this comment | 11-26-08 8:03 AM
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