Re: Prediction Predilection

1

The movie about the horse will win none of the predicted Oscars because, it turns out, very few Americans know that there was a First World War.


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 6:46 AM
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Gary Johnson will be the Libertarian Party's nominee for president and in the general election will easily break their previous high-water mark (Ed Clark, 1.1%, 1980).


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 6:46 AM
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1: What is this "World" you speak of?


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 6:48 AM
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I predict a giant space baby floating up there.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 6:49 AM
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Computers are clearly trying to kill us, so it's the next step.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 7:05 AM
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Just one word. 'Plastics'.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 7:38 AM
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War, depression, mass extinction, the living will envy the dead, and the Mavericks will be eliminated in the first round. Claire Danes will win an Emmy. Obama will be re-elected, but Republicans will win both House and Senate with filibuster-proof but not veto-override majorities.


Posted by: bob mcmanus | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 8:28 AM
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7 pwned by 6.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 8:30 AM
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LEDs will conquer the incandescent bulb.


Posted by: Tripp | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 8:41 AM
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I'm going to go ahead and make my annual "Orioles will suck" prediction.

This will be their 15th straight loosing season, so that's something.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 8:50 AM
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Pfff. I think the Pirates will hit 20 losing seasons this year.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 8:51 AM
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I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that a second Franco-Prussian War. Also, that Prussia is recreated as an independent state.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 8:54 AM
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Twins, after second straight losing season, consider move to AAA when they realize that they only have five major league starters and three of them are injured.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 8:56 AM
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Peace with Mexico by Christmas and 54'40" or fight - and we will never impede the flow of the Mississippi river.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:10 AM
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7 last w/r/t the election.

Dodgers win 88 games, obviously fail to make the playoffs. Lakers surprise by being decent to good, then fail in the second round. No Dwight Howard for them.

"Violet" will ascend decisively over "Isabella" and "Sophia" as a girl's name in mass use; amongst hipster yuppies, the old fashioned baby name thing will begin it's slow decline.

Someone will start a porn site called "Anal Karenina."


Posted by: Robert Halford | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:13 AM
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I predict the year will end sometime around midnight on December 31st.


Posted by: MAE | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:15 AM
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I don't have any political predictions. Sometime in the last two years I broke something -- I look at the news and I can't think of anything remotely plausible to hope for happening.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:18 AM
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the old fashioned baby name thing will begin it's slow decline.

It's kind of remarkable that during the past 20 years, baby naming has changed less than it has over any other 20 period since 1910 or so.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:20 AM
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I'd love to see futurological baby nemes.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:22 AM
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And yet everyone laughed at poor Storm.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:23 AM
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Nothing will happen in Congress this year, but the economy and the unempoyment rate will get a little bit better. Obama will run as a centrist and will win reelection, and the Democrats will take the House and keep the Senate, all by very narrow margins. By year-end Democrats will be slightly hopeful. But liberals and progresives will remain angry. Hoefulness willl end early in 2013 but anger will increase.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:25 AM
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I'd love to see futurological baby names so I could laugh at them.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:26 AM
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22: Faith Popcorn? Galaxy Craze? We've been over this, surely.


Posted by: Flippanter | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:31 AM
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I predict that baby naming will be affected by premature nostalgia and we will have a large new crop of kids named Jason and Jared and Amber and Brittany.


Posted by: Cryptic ned | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:31 AM
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15.last: Be the change you wish for.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:32 AM
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during the past 20 years, baby naming has changed less than it has over any other 20 period since 1910 or so

On the other hand, few things have been more stable over time than trends in pubic hair grooming for babies.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:36 AM
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Why don't you make yourself useful and google "Anal Karenina"? I'm thinking it already exists, but don't really want to look from the office.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:38 AM
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I believe that all my predictions from last December have come true.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:39 AM
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Why don't you make yourself useful and google "Anal Karenina"?

I did, as soon as that comment posted. But it's mostly just people making up names for porn movies.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:44 AM
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I predict OWS will fizzle away.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:45 AM
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Repeating an earlier dystopian prediction - Obama wins a second term, but the GOP wins in 2016, as a result of the constant propaganda and obstructionist actions, and the rich get richer and the middle class shrinks. The price of energy rises, putting pressure on everything, and we see blood in 2019, the revolution is suppressed with a more authoritarian crackdown, at least for awhile.

Or, my more current outlook - as problems arise enough people eventually see the problems, and we see Wall Street blood in 2015, shocking enough fatcats that they actually give in and contribute their fair share, averting a bloody revolution.


Posted by: Tripp | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:47 AM
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31.2 isn't a joke?


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:49 AM
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28: Most of mine didn't come to pass. However, if the Panthers find a way to lose to Tampa Bay this weekend, I'm highly likely to have gotten their 2011 record exactly right. So there's that.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:49 AM
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I predict that things will get worse.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:49 AM
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I've learned that my predictions depend on my mood. Personally, after two awful years that I wouldn't wish on anyone, things are finally starting to look up for me, so I project that onto the world.

Shorter answer - my predictions say a lot more about me than they do about the world.


Posted by: Tripp | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:51 AM
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I predict that Countrywide goes bankrupt. Not sure if BofA goes with it.


Posted by: Benquo | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:53 AM
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34: Hmmm. I predict that things will have to reach a tipping point before we see blood, and until we see blood nothing will change our path, so I guess I agree with you, many things will get worse in the next three years.


Posted by: Tripp | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:53 AM
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Panthers go 9-7 next season, but just miss the last wildcard spot. Also, UNC beats Ohio State for the national basketball championship in April.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:59 AM
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UNC beats Ohio State for the national basketball championship in April.

Bold.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:04 AM
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If I cared much about basketball, I might defend the Buckeyes.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:06 AM
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I predict the next year will be neither as good as I hope nor as bad as I fear.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:07 AM
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42

I predict the Bush tax cuts will be extended.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:10 AM
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I predict that next year, I won't need bifocals. 2013 is probably going to be the switch.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:10 AM
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I predict urple will have a NEW JOB !11!!


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:14 AM
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45

I'm getting new glasses next week, and I suspect bifocals are on the menu.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:14 AM
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Bifocals are now "transition lenses." I am wearing a pair now. They are actually trifocals, allegedly.

I predict I will lose my glasses someplace and it will cost me a bunch of money.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:25 AM
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Bachmann will be the 2012 Republican nominee (but will lose to Obama). Boehner won't be speaker in 2013.

The tax cuts won't be extended past 2012. The sequesters will take place. There will be a government shutdown in late 2012.

Pina will get released beyond BAM.


Posted by: jim | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:33 AM
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I have no prediction for the Republican nomination. (I expect it will be Romney, only because there's no one left for the anti-Romney vote to rally around. But I'm not confident about that.) But I do predict that (1) if nominated, Romney will narrowly defeat Obama in the general election, and (2) every other Republican candidate would lose badly.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:42 AM
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If 47.1 comes true I will post five successive comments saying "Heebie was totally right in the fashion change rate thread."


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:44 AM
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50

Herman Caine will get a job as a Fox News contributor.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:13 AM
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And he'll accuse the liberals of eating all the strawberries.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:16 AM
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Oh I wish I had a prediction so I could type it and then intone "Bye Bye!" in my best John McLaughlin.


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:24 AM
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53

The Euro will not be saved.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:28 AM
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Dick Cheney doesn't make it until the end of the year. Increasing violence in Iraq makes the super-embassy untenable, leading to either abandonment or reintervention depending on the breaks (and who wins the presidential election). Romney is the nomine but he wins only if the economy slips back into recession, I think people have internalized 11 percent unemployment forever.


Posted by: Asteele | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:44 AM
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Dick Cheney doesn't make it until the end of the year.

You really think all the Horcruxes have been destroyed?


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 1:03 PM
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55: All but one, obvs.


Posted by: Benquo | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 1:14 PM
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57

Well you know: Osama, gadaffi, Kim Jong, Bill Keane, Megatron.


Posted by: Asteele | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 1:25 PM
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58

Perhaps the last one is a sled by the name of Rosebud.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 1:57 PM
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||
Ha! I just finished my last official in-office duty of the year which was an online driving course and I failed. Only got 6 out of 8 (passing was 80% it turned out*)

Miss #1: "[Safety organization] estimates over 60,000 bad traffic things of this type per year. True or False". My answer: True. Wrong they say, estimate is over 600,000 per year.

Miss #2: The back of my head (which last time I looked had a vertical extent on the order of magnitude of a headrest) should be lined up with the top of, center of, or bottom of the headrest? I said bottom, answer was center.

OK, so you're supposed to parrot back specific lines from it and I wasn't really paying attention, but Jesus.

*Although initial report was failure**, it now seems to have rounded me up and passed me, or at least the totally effed up piece of shit Learning Management System won't let me re-take the quiz and let me print a successful completion certificate.

**Things have gotten so weird in a "It's a Good Life" kind of way around here recently that I semi-imagined this having semi-material "consequences".
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Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 2:35 PM
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Miss #1: "[Safety organization] estimates over 60,000 bad traffic things of this type per year. True or False". My answer: True. Wrong they say, estimate is over 600,000 per year.

"Over 600,000" is over 60,000. If it were multiple choice and those were both options, I could see them counting "over 60,000" as incorrect, but True/False? "False" seems to be clearly more wrong than "True."


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 2:39 PM
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Is "bad traffic thing" a new technical term?


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 2:44 PM
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Especially considering that "incorrect" answer was the difference between a passing score and a failing score, I would have raised hell.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 2:45 PM
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60: Yes, it is almost a parody. In fact I am looking for and not finding the mock interview with Tyrone Shoelaces's coach that led into Cheech & Chong's "Basketball Jones" where the coach corrects the interviewer for saying Tyrone is scoring over 40 points (or whatever) by saying "That's over 42 points per game".


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 2:55 PM
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61: No it is my gloss for whatever the fuck the thing was "merge accidents" or some shit like that.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 2:56 PM
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65

62: I would have raised hell.

And that would be the wrongest answer of all.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 2:57 PM
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66

It's not that "True" is a perfect answer--it's tecnically correct, but misleading low. It's that "False" is a clearly incorrect answer. "False" means that a true statement is "[Safety organization] estimates LESS THAN 60,000 bad traffic things of this type per year."* Which is wrong.

*Logically, sure, it could mean other things, such as "[Safety organization] does not estimate bad traffic things", etc., but that a bit beside the point.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 3:00 PM
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62, 65: Of course, I do have that in my back pocket if something got really silly. But, "Pol, ummm, ... Mr. Pot please sir, I think the test was poorly constructed" is generally not the best strategy for keeping ex-spouses from moving in with their parents.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 3:02 PM
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You have to demand justice.


Posted by: urple | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 3:04 PM
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69

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NMM to Republicans blocking extension of the payroll tax cut.

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Posted by: Sir Kraab | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 3:05 PM
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66: You are of course so very, very right, that you are very wrong.

The actual right answer is: "Don't wait to take this training until nearly the very last possible day when anyone who can do anything about anything is gone."

The second right answer is: "Shut-up."


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 3:05 PM
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This back-and-forth does make me have some pause about my advice with regard to the interview.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 3:07 PM
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NMM to Republicans blocking two-month extension of the payroll tax cut.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 7:14 PM
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I predict that this post will remain the best snark on Obama's assassination of American citizens. Even if we assassinate more of them.


Posted by: Witt | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 7:43 PM
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I predict drinking in front if a TV on March 6th, 2012.
A supertuesday tradition.

Should this be classified as a prediction, or as a plan ?


Posted by: Econolicious for four more years | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:36 PM
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58: But we'll never know who Johnny is because, like, she's dead.


Posted by: Mister Smearcase | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 9:36 PM
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I predict that, now that my nasal cavity has gone from "just fine" to "all dried out and fucked up", it will not be okay again for another 4 months. Stupid dryness.

Not a prediction: I have apparently, in the space of two days, successfully leveraged my participation in one subculture into a privileged entry into a completely different subculture. I am clever that way. Also, being a white guy definitely helped.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 10:17 PM
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69: That's not pause-play. It's I-was-almost-kinda-right!


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:11 PM
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I haven't followed it closely, I'm completely mystified why the media has been treating this latest episode of attempted Republican hostage taking as just that, rather than as the usual both sides nonsense. Or is my perception off?


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:25 PM
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I predict that the Red Sox, held back by an awful back-of-the-rotation, will just barely squeak into the newly-added 2nd Wild Card, but will ride their offense and 1-2-3 pitchers all the way to the World Series, which they will win.

More seriously, I see stasis as the order of the day for both the US and Europe--and for much the same reason; federal-level supermajoritarian rules here, EU-level ones there. The EU double-dip will be worse, but the US economy will be bad enough to give Romney the election. This will set us up for at least another 4 years of the '01-'09 political economy, with a little less military adventurism and a lot less debt-financed consumption (both private and gov't). Throughout this period, both left and right will become increasingly radical, while Serious Moderates continue to insist that the right grownups just need to be in charge and Get Serious and Shared Sacrifice in order for everything to be okay.


Posted by: x.trapnel | Link to this comment | 12-22-11 11:48 PM
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80

I'd be happy to share the sacrifice, as long as it's lamb, with mint jelly.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 12:23 AM
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I'm completely mystified why the media has been treating this latest episode of attempted Republican hostage taking as just that, rather than as the usual both sides nonsense. Or is my perception off?

It's mostly because this time it was an inter-Republican fight, which is subject to different rules. Basically, the Senate Republicans negotiated a deal with the White House, passed the bill, and went home expecting the House to do the same. Instead, though, the House GOP rejected the whole thing after having basically played no part in the negotiations, which pissed everyone off so much that they eventually backed down.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 12:27 AM
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I predict the fascists will continue to promote oppression and death, making me ever angrier and more paranoid.

I predict that there will be an eye of the storm at some point in the near future, where it temporarily seems as though anthropogenic climate change has been halted, only for it to return with a vengeance a little later.

I predict that all the evils of society will pretty much continue unabated -- more people in jail or murdered by the state; more environmental degradation; more cultural decline; more ignorance and apathy and fraud and hypocrisy; more people beat down, busted, broke, underwater and betrayed. No one will be able to stop anything and the vast majority of people will continue sitting around doing nothing like the proverbial frog in the pot. I predict that people will not make the necessary cognitive and empathic leaps that would allow them to work collectively without hierarchy and domination.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 12:31 AM
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82 makes me think I should stop feeling sorry for myself that I can't sleep because my 7-year-old nephew is coughing up a storm next to me. (Yes, I feel sorry for him, too, and yes, I've given him cough medicine.)


Posted by: Sir Kraab | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 3:43 AM
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Let me be the first person to take your question seriously, Stanley, unlike the self-styled "comedians" that infest this comment section. I predict that before too long, the Earth will be enveloped in eternal darkness. We will struggle against this fate as the life is slowly choked from us, but before the end we will come to agree with Lincoln and the Psalmist that the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 5:53 AM
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76: Me too. I keep water simmering on the stove and I spray saline solution, both of which help.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 6:57 AM
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Jesus fuck. Keir are you OK?


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 7:16 AM
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My cousin who lives in CHC has had just about enough of it.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 7:20 AM
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88

87. I imagine they might have. Are they safe this time?


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 7:28 AM
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Facebook status this morning: Totally sick of this. The Biggest was about 3 km away from us just off the coast and a 6.0. House is ok. We're ok. [cat] disappeared but he is back now & ok.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 7:50 AM
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Basically, the Senate Republicans negotiated a deal with the White House, passed the bill, and went home expecting the House to do the same. Instead, though, the House GOP rejected the whole thing after having basically played no part in the negotiations, which pissed everyone off so much that they eventually backed down.

A rare case of the media's snuggling up with elites working in our favor, I guess.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 7:53 AM
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http://www.mattglassman.com/?p=2232


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 8:12 AM
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So the fight between the Republican crazies and the Republican even-more-crazies is how policy decisions now are made.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 8:19 AM
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45: Bifocals - if you can tolerate it, I find that monocular vision works great, except for 3D movies, and I wear my driving glasses for that.


Posted by: Tripp | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 8:38 AM
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This time I got monofocals after 5-10 years with bifocals. The split vision is annoying, and I read with my my glasses off anyway. If I had to I might just buy reading glasses rather than returning to bifocals.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 8:40 AM
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Despite the "caving" story, the Republicans as a whole have done pretty well for themselves. The long-term unemployed have been lost in the shuffle - 99-monthers in 11 states (including Michigan and Ohio) will lose benefits in January and February, and I presume more states if nothing is done before March.

Also more regressivity in home-buying: higher FHA fees, just what everybody needed.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 9:43 AM
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And that's just in exchange for the 2 months' extension! Who knows what more will be ceded in February.


Posted by: Minivet | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 9:44 AM
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Minivet,

You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both, and there you have the facts of life.

You just wait - the days will start getting longer and longer soon enough now.

I promise.


Posted by: Tripp | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 1:04 PM
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What's the thought on this alleged missile strike against Iran? I am skeptical, as the Daily Mail is the only corporate media reporting it. But perhaps that's all part of the conspiracy.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 2:38 PM
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Don't see anything. It's my primary nightmare, though.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 3:22 PM
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AFAICS there's another round of speculation over whether Israel is going to bomb Iranian nuclear installations over Christmas. This story runs about once a month. If Israel actually does this, it will start World War III, so I'm against it. If Kennedy had bombed Cuba it would have started WWIII, and he had much better reasons, but he didn't: because he was sane. I don't know if Netanyahu is sane: the evidence is inconclusive.

Merry Whatever You Celebrate Around This Time of Year, everybody.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 3:38 PM
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This is an alleged strike that already happened. However, until someone beyond the Mail and the Iranian news agency does some reporting on it, I am very dubious.


Posted by: Natilo Paennim | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 4:28 PM
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15: fuck you, halford. I researched that shit so hard; the name hadn't cracked 8000 of the SS top 10,000 ever and was on a downward decline. goddamnit.


Posted by: alameida | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 8:01 PM
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"Ebola" is still available as a cute girl's name.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 9:31 PM
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103: Alobë, surely.


Posted by: Cosma Shalizi | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 9:37 PM
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There's a microbiologist who gave his kids salmonella and ecoli for names. Middle names, FWIW. I could probably google it to confirm, but I don't care enough.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 9:42 PM
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My ex once had a student named Goni/lila. I saw it on the roll.


Posted by: Biohazard | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 9:54 PM
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A sometime acquaintance named her sons Turing and Huxley. The end of Alan Turing's life gives me such a terrible case of the fantods that I can't imagine inflicting the name on a kid -- eventually he'd learn about it, and then we'd both have nightmares. I like the old-fashioned name Lucretia for its aesthetic qualities, but was very easily persuaded never to consider it for my offspring.

I am completely agnostic about the election results. I'm not sure why the prospect of a Romney victory upsets me as much as it does -- because of what I expect it to do to the Democratic party, or because of reproductive rights, or because I actually expect the klepto-plutocracy to worsen under a Republican? It might be too late to think any harder about this.


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 12-23-11 11:15 PM
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