Fortunately, my two favorite baseball teams are in the playoffs tonight. I always root for the Indians first, and then whoever is playing against the Yankees.
I'm genuinely strategizing how I can get the info I need for my job without actually watching it. And I usually love debates.
1 is right. I am not going to watch.
3: I'm still traumatized by the sound thumping that Hillary thrice administered to Trump without having it matter at all.
I feel like by now Biden could reduce Trump to snot-bawling and storming out after 5 minutes and it would move the polls like half a point.
You have to down your drink when Joe Biden says "malarkey."
Whenever Trump tries to speak the crowd should start chanting, "NO MORE MALARKEY! NO MORE MALARKEY! NO MORE MALARKEY!"
I'll probably watch some of the debate -- I'm not sure why, but I've watched so little of Biden this campaign I'm curious to see how he looks.
From a cost-benefit perspective, skipping the debate is probably better advice, but I'm curious (and we'll see what "some of the debate" entails. If I get frustrated I'll just turn it off).
Hearing Trump's voice causes my blood pressure to shoot up and forces everything but rage from my mind. I can't listen. I can't even listen to that comedian who lip syncs to him
While there is enough alcohol in the world, there is not enough in my house for me to watch.
11: It all brings back the early Bush years for me. I will never forget how it felt to hear George W. Bush's voice address the nation after 9/11. I actually don't know if there's a single specific Trump moment that has been worse than that for me, given that he's Mr. Same Shit Different Day in perpetuity. I'm probably blocking something out.
14: Same. And there's kind of a lot of alcohol in my house.
I think I'm going to watch. I'll have a drink and moral support.
I think I'm going to watch. I'll have a drink and moral support.
Weirdly just watched the episode of New Girl where Winston explains to Jess his "Biden" technique of picking people up where you just have to be there. Doesn't matter what you do, just make sure that you're always just there.
Are you going to liveblog, LB and NickS? It sounds like this might benefit Witt, among others.
I can't even listen to that comedian who lip syncs to him
This I can do. But otherwise, yeah, I can't listen, and will not be watching the debate.
I think Biden needs to do two things tonight. Speak in clear, coherent sentences to rebut the lies about having dementia and when Trump asks about a drug test, piss right on Chris Wallace's podium.
11. I don't like the sound of Trump's voice, but I don't despise it the way I do Bush's voice. I can tolerate it for a few seconds longer than I can Bush's.
21: Not unless I happen to catch something particularly interesting. It appears that my following of the debate will be interrupted and sporadic, which may be for the best. I will be sad to not read the reactions of other unfogged commenters, but, again, probably good from a cost-benefit perspective for people to skip the debate.
Neither of them are very sharp in the opening question, but Biden seems to be warming up as he goes.
Chris Wallace: Mr. President, please allow the vice president to finish his answer.
Biden: He doesn't know how to do that.
Biden is doing pretty well at laughing appropriately when Trump interrupts him.
Biden speaks only to Chris Wallace, constantly referring to Trump as "he." Trump glowers every time.
This is the most unpleasant experience I have ever had. When I was fourteen I knocked a boiling pot of coffee over my legs in a pair of shorts, and I'd rather be back there than listening to this now.
Yeah it's torture I wish being interrupted didn't cause Biden to lose his train of thought though and I wish you would try it on Trump although I suppose he's taking the high road
This is painful but my kids think it's hilarious.
Trump can't lose his train of thought, he's not even trying to say anything connected.
I'm enjoying the way that Biden just chuckles whenever Trump tries a personal attack. Trump can't figure out how to respond.
I also enjoy Chris Wallace, and not Biden, being intimidated by Trump.
I turned it off. I can't watch this.
I turned it off. I can't watch this.
There's just not enough booze in the world, LB ...
This is agony. I'm going to drink some warm gin.
I did make myself a cocktail, but I finished it, and they were still talking.
Joe is warming up, but this really makes me miss Hillary.
Chris Wallace has been pushing Trump to behave as not interrupt. Complete shit show.
Yeah, Wallace is doing a poor jod, but it's a fairly nonpartisan oor job.
I like when Joe addresses the camera. I think that works.
42: Who could do better? That's a serious question. Trump is hard to rein in. He's like a tornado, spreading chaos wherever he goes.
Wallace himself is actually starting to do better. And as the moderation improves, Joe improves.
They need to give the moderator a mute button next time. Trump would look completely ridiculous flapping his mouth in silence.
Yeah, the rules are a problem.
Joe is really sharp on social justice.
Biden has some good moments, and I hope that the big takeaway from the debate is Trump blathering incoherently, but the whole affair has a quality of mud wrestling with a pig.
Trump running against Obama and, "radical leftists" not much about Biden.
39 and 49: Did the people we need to reach like Hillary's performance? And how would they respond to JB?
Chris Wallace tried to get Trump to condemn white supremacists, and he sort of said, he might if there were any, but not really.
According to Twitter, Trump told them to await further orders from him.
Whoever had a Fox reporter asking the first question about climate change in 8 years, please go collect your winnings.
53: I miss sharp, crisp intelligence. "The people" don't like women.
I'm using you guys, and Kevin Drum's liveblogging, as a welder's mask to filter the debate through, and my eyes are still getting burned out...
And I am liking Joe more and more. This could be the alcohol talking.
Trump got stuck in a "stupid bastard, stupid bastard" loop when everyone started talking over each other. I think he was trying to say that at some point in time, Biden called soemone a stupid bastard, but tit was a very Trump moment.
Trump got stuck in a "stupid bastard, stupid bastard" loop when everyone started talking over each other. I think he was trying to say that at some point in time, Biden called soemone a stupid bastard, but tit was a very Trump moment.
speaking of getting stuck in a loop
53: one of the better moments that I heard was Biden saying that Trump and his rich friends look down on people. He delivered it well. I also realized that is the Republican line about Coastal Elites. So, maybe that means Biden can do a better job at connecting to those voters. Biden was correct about Trump and Clinton couldn't have used that line.
Trump calls for civil war news at 11
Now that Wallace has asserted some control, Joe is doing nicely.
"This is not going to end well." DJT, 9/29/2020.
Somehow it was even more of a massive shitshow than I expected.
Jesus. Chuck Todd describes the debate as a "train wreck."
"We know who did it. President Trump did this."
Savanah Guthrie is visibly shocked. They are pretty openly appalled with the president.
"This was a disgrace, frankly." Andrea Mitchell.
I don't know if it's because it's past bedtimes or from watching that shitshow but everyone in the family is now in a bad mood. Trump is like that evil slime in Ghostbusters 2 that makes people angry.
NBC is trying to provide balance. Joe got mad.
I watched a movie. Knives Out It was kind of fun.
Really, the whole debate thing is, and probably has always been, pretty stupid. There are a zillion better ways for candidates to get their messages out to people who will listen, and nothing about appearing on stage together helps a candidate. Maybe Trump did himself some harm, but if so, it'll only be because his unshakeable cult just isn't quite enough to win the thing and he's missed another chance to widen his appeal.
The wife watched it. Comment 1 is still correct.
76.1 yes it isn't bad is it? The Hunt for Red October was my film of choice for the election last year. I am starting to think of options for US election night. I am thinking Harvey.
Trump is like that evil slime in Ghostbusters 2 that makes people angry.
Oh, would you like me to recite Bobby Brown's mid-song rap from On Our Own? Sure, I'd be happy to!
Too hot to handle, too cold to hold
They're called the Ghostbusters and they're in control
Had a throwin party for a bunch of children
And all the while, slime was under the buildin'
So they packed up the crew, got a grip came quick.
Grabbed the proton packs on their backs, and they split!
I don't remember the end of it!
That last line rhymed a little confusingly well. I was kidding - I don't remember the last couplet.
Apparently it is:
So they packed up the crew, got a grip came quick
Grabbed the proton packs on their backs, and they split
To battle out Vigo, the master of evil
Try to battle my boys? That's not legal
ya ya ya know it.
So even the pro-Trump blogs think he lost, except Andrew Sullivan, apparently.
I usually have a lot of opinions about the inadequacy of media coverage -- and there has been an annoying amount of both-siderism -- but I'm genuinely stumped as to how to report on this.
Me, I'd go with his endorsement of white supremacy -- "Stand back and stand by" -- as the lede, but I can't argue with, for example, the NYT front page: "Trump's Hectoring and Deceptions Upend Debate; Biden Calls Him a 'Clown' "
And when you click through, the headline is: "With Cross Talk, Lies and Mockery, Trump Tramples Decorum in Debate With Biden"
There's a real problem writing about a guy who floods the zone with bullshit and hate: What do you highlight? What's the takeaway here?
I think the highlight is he's making it as clear as possible he's going to try to prevent the peaceful transfer of power if he loses. No one believes it can actually happen because hey it's worked for 230 years, with a few notable exceptions.
83: Yeah, that's a very good point.
As usual with Trump, a big part of it all is the stupidity. Had he said "stand down" he would have both explicitly recognized them, and also be in a position to claim (in bad faith, but there you go) he'd told them to go home. But being him he botched it and came out with something that's both nonsensical and grossly awful at once.
It's the characteristic tone of the Republican Party, really, since as long as I can remember - strident nationalism tempered by bungling idiocy.
86: I thought that had all the hallmarks of a prepared line - something he planned to say in exactly the way he said it.
One thing that's pissing me off about the media this morning is the way they are characterizing his relationship with white supremacy. The pundits are calling his failure to renounce the Proud Boys as a "mistake." I don't think it was a mistake at all -- either in the sense that it was an accidental gaffe, or in the sense that Trump fails to understand his correct political strategy.
I'm terrified they find somebody less bungling, but the trend is in the other direction.
I think I see the debate strategy now, and it wasn't to convince voters to choose Trump over Biden. Trump directed the he Proud Boys to "stand back, and stand by" until election day. For election day itself, Trump directed them, and all of his other followers, to act as untrained poll watchers, hanging around inside or just outside polling stations and "observing." This will mean they will do stupid stuff, like refusing to leave after they vote, arguing that an elderly voter's signature doesn't match the one on the card they signed in 1972, or insisting that voters remove masks to prove they match their photo ID's. Sometimes poll workers will get into protracted arguments. Sometimes they will call law enforcement. Small disruptions will make the lines very long very quickly. Sufficient disruptions will make voting impossible. This is just what Trump explicitly directed his people to do during the debate.
If you add onto that some real disruptions, like a few small pipe bombs in majority black voting locations in swing states going off every hour on the hour starting at 7 a.m. (they don't even have to kill anyone, although that may happen), there could be actual turnout effects.
The strategy doesn't work if people vote by mail or at early voting locations. That's why Trump is trying to convince the world to wait until election day, and vote in person.
It still probalby won't work, but that's the strategy,
.
I'm terrified they find somebody less bungling, but the trend is in the other direction.
Trump's cabinet and close advisors are strong evidence for the Sink-Trap hypothesis of far-right incompetence. Trump himself, on the other hand, seems to be an example of the Bone-Head process. http://www.unfogged.com/archives/comments_16943.html#2045918
Why the fuck don't the debate managers turn off the mike of the person who is not being addressed by a question?
86- Turns out he can't repeat back a few simple words when asked to. For all the things he's willing to shamelessly lie about, the fact that he won't just say "white supremacy bad" or "I'll accept the election results" even if he's obviously lying is what they call a tell.
93: Do you think anyone is in a position to coach him to say any of these things anymore? I suspect Miller gave him the Proud Boys line.
Did Biden say "malarkey" even once? If so, how could he have gone so off-message?
(no, I didn't watch it at all. But I did just watch the video of Biden saying, "Man, will you shut up?")
Is it still considered a tell if it's literally stating the truth?
83: The NYT is getting closer with its front-page headline: "Trump Hectoring Upends Debate as He Attacks Election Integrity"
94- Chris Christie and Rudy were his debate coaches. Rudy is nuts but Christie at least knows how to play the game. I'm sure he's gotten the advice to just recite the proper words- Pence also knows how to play the role of a stable politician and has probably suggested he just say he'll accept the results. He doesn't want to because he thinks being a troll and playing to his base are more important. Leaks were that he loves it when the press freaks out about him breaking democratic norms.
I'm mixed on whether that line was prepared. He was asked by Wallace to say "stand down" which I can see his mind mangling to "stand by."
98.last -- I take your point that he was riffing on "stand down." And Joe actually first named the "Proud Boys."
I think the video, though, shows real clarity on Trump's part about how he wanted to respond to this. And of course, who is genuinely surprised that Trump not only thinks this, but is willing to say it?
90 is correct, I think, and I'll say again that 83 is wise. Conventional political analysis is insufficient to reckon with this moment.
92: They negotiate the rules in advance, and that's not something the parties agreed to. Laurence O'Donnell said that should be in the rules if the are going to have more debates but that Trump would never agree to that because his whole strategy is to interrupt and try to get people off balance.
83: Van Jones Thought it was the white supremacy thing, but I agree with you that it's the transfer of power issue.
Chris Christie and Rudy were his debate coaches. Rudy is nuts but Christie at least knows how to play the game. I'm sure he's gotten the advice to just recite the proper words...
OK, helpful, but I figure at this point telling him to say something minimally decent must be mostly ritualistic and/or for their future autobiographies, since he so reliably rejects that advice.
Slate comes through again -- the headline, "The Debate Was Good!"
Three thoughts, this morning.
1) As it turned out, I listened to most of the debate on the radio, walking around a park, which was much better than seeing it on a screen.
2) I'm glad I did; it was an experience. A memorable part of American political history, and I'm glad I had the opportunity to have my own experience of, "what the heck is going on here" before seeing the commentary.
3) GWB's comment (at the inauguration) , "well that was some weird shit" doesn't get old when describing the Trump presidency.
To battle out Vigo, the master of evil
I do not remember what this means but I remember hearing it as "The Bhagavad Gita, the master of evil" and wondering what THAT was about.
I am really sorry I watched last night. There was no reason to and it was a genuinely horrible experience. I don't think any moderator could have contained trump. He's like a rhetorical hagfish.
83 again: Here we go. The NYT is really catching on. Here's the headline at the top of the web site:
Analysis: Debate Showed the Biggest Threat to the Election Is Trump Himself.
And the subhed:
An Extraordinary Attack by the President on Integrity of the Vote.
107: That is a dramatic improvement.
My wife and I watched and were dismayed. Biden showed a lot of patience for the first half of the debate. I'm surprised by this morning's narrative about the moderator taking Trump's side -- he only really enforced time against Biden -- but since Trump was the decided offender, a simple count of rebukes will show more against Trump.
It wasn't useful or clarifying in any positive way; Trump successfully talked over enough of Biden's responses that he couldn't get to any specifics. Trump's doubling down on refusing to censure white supremacists was unexpected but also totally predictable. Flood the zone with shit evidently works in debates too, when the moderator can't rein in cross talk.
It's interesting that both here and on Facebook I'm seeing many people saying "Why don't we just mute people who go over time?" - presumably the influence of Zoom culture this year.
3: The 2016 debates mattered - Clinton got a polling boost after each one. They just didn't matter *enough*. Which was frustrating for me, because taken as a job interview, I thought the debates made it clear that one candidate was supremely qualified for the job and the other was ... not. Absent the Comey letter, we would probably be talking about how she got just enough of a boost from the debates to put her over the top.
5, 110: Yes. A comment by heebie immediately following the first 2016 debate: I think Clinton did...perfect. I don't know if that's enough.
My cautious optimism is incrementally bolstered. But ...
As it always is with the Dems there always seems to be potential huge downsides to any slip-up that is not offset at all to the same degree. Because crazy motherfuckers.
Did not watch except via proxy (and a lot of clips) but I do think there was a bit of the incumbent effect working with Trump. Most incumbents seem to have rocky first debates (not like this one, of course) that I have seen folks explain as their having become habituated over the course of four years to beong kowtowed to by basically everyone. And even more so for this sycophancy-demanding piece of shit. He probably wanted to order Barr to arrest/tear gas everyone.
I was wondering if you were watching. You usually have such a strong stomach for the most depressing stuff.
I read an article saying that the debate committee was considering changing the rules because this was such a mess. That would be interesting if they do.
112: Mitt Romney had several gaffes that probably hurt him (47 percent, binders full of women, "corporations are people, my friend"). I'm sure Obama had some too but we don't remember them because he won. As for this year, if not for the coronavirus, I feel like the Democrats wouldn't have a chance in the 2020 election. We wouldn't be wondering about whether soundbite A is a bigger gaffe than soundbite B, we'd just be talking about downballot races, comparing notes on where to flee the country to, and arguing over whether sham elections would be held in 2024 or no elections at all. But as it is, we can't flee the country because no one will have us because Trump botched the pandemic response so badly that even some conservatives have noticed. We have hope for the election, to the extent that we do, for the same reason that we have so little hope about anything else. This also means that it's even harder than usual to gauge what might be a gaffe.
Trump was behind in the polls in January, before the virus hit. I'd buy that the virus is going to give us a chance to take the Senate that we wouldn't have had otherwise, but the presidency was within reach.
On the one hand, I sincerely believe that "Trump destroys everything he touches" and he sure touched the Republican Party in every possible way. Therefore, Trump is in the process of destroying the Republican party, Senate and all. On the other hand, it isn't quite reassuring enough right now.
I thought it was a cut off word "in summer" or something but apparently Joe actually did say inshallah.
118: As you troll, so shall you be trolled. I think that's from the Qur'an
117:. Is it just the Republican Party that is destroyed by Trump's touch? Or is it the whole USA?
Stay tuned.
120: ¿POR QUE NO LOS DOS?
115.2: Yes. But specifically there was a lot of commentary (including here) on how flat Obama was in the first debate.
118: Cue the "Biden is now secretly a Muslim (and Obama converted him!)" conspiracy theories...
125: Were there any interesting local elections? Ballot initiatives?
Uh, Biden-Harris. The state elections are probably going to be close, but I don't know anything about the Republican candidates. The local elections were non-competitive (only Democrats on the ballot). There was one ballot initiative about better oversight of the police.
Trump is on the TV with commercials clearly designed to be show him as normal (by somebody with their head up their ass because they're bragging about job creation). I think they're hoping nobody watched the debate.
I'll skip the hair-raising militias article and share the hair-raising Nice White Ladies article from Anne Helen Petersen:
There are so many well to do suburban and small town women -- mostly, but certainly not entirely, white -- for whom all the ideological stuff, all the character issues, all the racism and white supremacist baiting, all the stuff so many people find morally repugnant, it just doesn't figure. Part of that is because their class (and, often, race) means that it just doesn't have to. But part of it has to do with an eagle-eyed focus on their own financial future. Other concerns, no matter how morally pertinent, fall to the side.
Yes, they want to maintain their lifestyle -- it's just not the "working class" lifestyle so many people map onto them. It's a lifestyle of curation and cuteness to the point of sameness, of Chip and Joanna Gaines style room makeovers and Home Edit organization. I don't mean to degrade any of those things -- I have fucking shiplap on my walls and my grains are in Mason jars -- so much highlight how aspirationally bourgeois they are. This Trump Lifestyle voter doesn't think Trump Tower is actually classy. They think, as I pointed out almost exactly four years years ago, that Ivanka is.
(Twitter ate my brain in record fucking time. I used to rail against Trump-voterology day and night.)
It's bad tactics to point out that petite bourgeoisie kind of sucks right before election.
Honestly, if that group is 44% for Biden, that sounds like a good sign to me.
The Home Edit stuff has been mentioned in this house lately. Apparently, you're supposed to buy really expensive containers and put away things so that you have very artful cabinets. Since we've been stuck at home, we've pondered doing something about all the piles of stuff, but mostly all we've got to show for this time is a bunch of plants next to the piles of stuff.
One plant is an actual tree. Another is almost a tree.
118: Cue the "Biden is now secretly a Muslim (and Obama converted him!)" conspiracy theories...
No, no, Trump is the secret Muslim.
(Here I transition into the Goodness Gracious Me "all Indian" dad character.)
Lots of wives? Muslim!
Never touches alcohol? Muslim!
Always wakes up at dawn? He's a fundamentally lazy man but he's always up at dawn? First prayer of the day, obviously!
Never goes to church? Muslim!
Terrible, gaudy, overdone taste in interior decoration? Have you been to the Gulf states recently?
Always has different food from his guests at official dinners - because he has to be sure it's halal, of course.
And look at all his best friends. Erdogan? Muslim. Sisi? Muslim. MBS? Muslim.
Doesn't shake hands with Angela Merkel - because she's a woman and it would be haram!
The real reason he hates the mainstream media is because they keep depicting the human form. That's why he likes Twitter, it's a text-based format.
Ajay, if you can affect a plausible standard American accent, it would be a public service to make a video of 136 and launch it on YouTube. Because it's surprisingly plausible.
I agree! Who's our most polished American commenter with the least moral compunctions?
You realize that like the checkin threads you're going to have to post a debate thread every week for the next month...
And will the election night thread be the final 1000 comment thread in the history of the blog? Or will we save that for when Trump declares martial law in January?
Obviously the NY Times missed the real story in his tax returns which is that he donates 2.5% of his income to a waqf and all the other spurious transactions are to cover this up.
He's now forbidden to run a waqf in NY State.
have to run a vakif instead. Goddamn Turks.
139: can the future debate threads be entitled "The Living Envy The Dead, Parts II and III"?
I finally finished my ballot measure recommendations for Californians! 7,000 words, argh. But there's a summary table and internal links.
I still haven't brought myself to read the transcript, but this Slate piece hit a bunch of lowlights other people's articles hadn't.
146: I'm only a few measures in so far, but really appreciate your breakdown and explanations. Thanks!
146: we get like 2 or 3 ballot initiatives max, And there's a strict requirement that there be only one issue per initiative. I know they've been thrown out by the Supreme Judicial Court for having too many separate components. I remember trying to vote in California, and the complexity was absurd. I remember once that there was a provision in one question which was based on whether another question passed.
We do also have the single-subject rule - and FWICT, it takes fewer signatures as a percent of the electorate to qualify a measure in MA than in CA. I think the difference is down to several differences (a) your state legislature can raise taxes or issue bonds without it having to go to the ballot under the constitution; (b) our legislature more frequently puts its own proposals on the ballot to disclaim final responsibility; but possibly also just (c) plain old political culture.
If Trump gets covid from Hope Hicks, it would be irresponsible not to laugh.
POSITIVE! POSITIVE! POSITIVE!
(Actually, I positively dislike this feeling of schadenfreude.)
I am hoping that Trump and I live long enough to see his whole family incarcerated. After that, we can both die.
(And ideally, he doesn't die of COVID, but just winds up with the debilitating ongoing effects, then dies of something else. Sepsis would be appropriate.)
Only confirmed by the doctor who lied about his weight so far. I'll be curious to see who else that HH talked with is also positive. If nobody, then I think he's lying.
If it isn't legitimate, then is it: Setting up a miraculous recovery? Finding a way out of further debates? Trying to find a way out of office that leaves room to blame external forces for a landslide election loss?
Hanging is too good for him.
https://atlantablackstar.com/2020/10/01/i-beg-you-master-aurora-police-department-releases-footage-of-officer-punishing-black-woman-left-hogtied-upside-down-in-patrol-car-for-20-minutes/?fbclid=IwAR3KfeSMuz8MS-KMhyaVoH47FLPemsIcnmomo3XLSX--bnKbUP6dnC-lXXM
Matter of fact, hang his goddamn fascist family in front of him and then bury him alive. Nothing less would be justice.
Given how many other horrible politicians have had it, including ones who have been in his company, it's something of a miracle he's not had it yet.
150: Our state legislature (the General Court) can also vote to overturn them most of the time.
I saw the news on the N.Y. Times, and all I wanted to say was, "He tested positive!" Part of me feels schafenfreude. Part of me wonders how this will affects his perception of it.
I read an article about Putin; he doesn't go near anyone who hasn't quarantined for 2 weeks and just communicates over whatever the Soviet-era official equivalent of ZOOM is. Trump is Mussolini to Putin's (?). He's no Stalin, but he's less of a buffoon.
159. At the moment I go with trying to get out of further debates. On the strength of which he may not actually have it. Some aides may have fed him something to make him feel lousy and told the doctor to tell him he was positive.
Agrippina Melania may be involved.
159. At the moment I go with trying to get out of further debates. On the strength of which he may not actually have it. Some aides may have fed him something to make him feel lousy and told the doctor to tell him he was positive.
Agrippina Melania may be involved.
I doubt he's faking. He makes fun of people who get it and thinks he has superior genes. He wouldn't make himself look bad by pretending to have it.
I tend to agree with 155 because it's 2020 so only bad things happen.
- Trump dies, Pence could win a sympathy vote. Certainly all the never-trumpers come home and say the Republican Party is Saved. Someone claimed the WH was looking at changing the normal order of succession (presumably to keep Pelosi away from the presidency) but someone else joked that just meant they were looking at how to put Ivanka or Don Jr. on the ticket.
- He's asymptomatic, he says this shows it was a hoax and his hydroxychloroquine worked, open up the country and stop wearing masks.
The middle case, he gets seriously sick but recovers, I'm not sure. I don't think he gets much of a sympathy vote, he skips debates and rallies- seems bad for him?
I just hope that MFer didn't infect Joe with his 90 minutes of spitting. If Trump was infected by Hicks then he was probably not contagious at the debate. He's tested at least daily so was negative Wednesday night.
Factual stuff: the chance of a 74 year old person who has tested positive for COVID dying is 5.4%. Yes, male and obese are associated with high mortality, but on the other hand he is white and has the best medical care money can buy.
The chance of him showing no symptoms at all is (if I remember the Diamond Princess outbreak) about 50%. Chance of being hospitalised is about 20-30% I think, given his age, but I'm finding it hard to find decent numbers on that, oddly enough.
So he has to roll 11 or over on d20 to save vs COVID, and if he fails he loses d6 hit points. If he rolls a natural 1 he's dead.
I think there's no way it isn't legitimate. There was a news story last night about him and Melania having to quarantine because Hope Hicks tested positive. Then this followed.
I hope he gets precisely sick enough that for years he can't project his voice without descending into wracking coughs. YEARS.
I just hope that MFer didn't infect Joe with his 90 minutes of spitting. If Trump was infected by Hicks then he was probably not contagious at the debate. He's tested at least daily so was negative Wednesday night.
I was wondering this, too. How far apart were they?? Was there a plexiglass shield or well designed ventilation or anything?
I hope he gets precisely sick enough that for years he can't project his voice without descending into wracking coughs. YEARS.
And that his dick falls off.
For Melania, I hope she's precisely sick enough that for years, every time any Trump speaks, she can't help but descend into wracking paryoxms of conscience.
If he has got it we need to remember that Johnson had a fairly serious case of Covid and it doesn't seem to have improved his response to the pandemic in the least. He just reverted to type as soon as he could breathe again. So unless Trump actually dies or becomes long term incapacitated, it will probably be a negligible blip.
Hence the intrusive, persistent cough. It's really vital.
How far apart were they??
Judging by this I would say about 12 feet.
Was there a plexiglass shield or well designed ventilation or anything?
Doesn't seem to be, no.
Were they singing or talking at length?
For the first time in my life, I am legitimately curious as to how Fox News is going to cover Trump having Covid. Because of course they need to show preening respect for the man's health, but how can they do that and minimize Covid?
Specifically: do they make it the only news story of the day, and harp on it 24-7, breaking news style? Or do they mix it in with other news, and just mention it in passing and confidently pray for his swift recovery?
180: why do they have to minimize Covid-19? Eurasia has always been at war with Eastasia.
I think they'll go with Random Twitter person was happy Trump got sick, so liberals are anti-catholic.
They sure do take the least fun route at every turn.
Pence is negative. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the senior leadership tests. I wonder how often Trump is face-to-face with Barr.
180, 181: So far people have noted:
1) Evil Biden campaign sucks because no statement out yet.
2) "doesn't that also send a message that you could say whatever you want in stats & graphs but I give you an example of somebody who's in that danger age of 74 who is out there, gets it, and beats it?"
But I bet 183 comes to the fore. And some more well-known people will certainly have some "awkward: responses. Or point out the excellent medical care he will get and contrast it with GOP ACA stance. Ad that would be evil politicization.
Not Fox but wishy-washy milquetoast Jeff Greenfield was speculating that Biden should suspend his campaign.
Or launch of bunch of ads about how we could all be living a much better life if people were wearing masks.
He's just doing this as a distraction to cover for his horrible debate performance, which was just a distraction to cover for his tax evasion.
Now he should release his taxes to distract from Covid, then the second debate can distract from his taxes.
I did have a thing in mind to post, but I can't compete w this, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Fresh post for the presidential infection, maybe?
194: that's old news at this point, but Trump's coronavirus diagnosis might be worth discussing.
Maybe wait until Pence releases his syphilis test results this afternoon?
Didn't he recently have a series of mini-stokes, allegedly? Covid can't be good for that.
That's where you're wrong. There's good evidence that Covid is very good for bringing on a stroke.
If he wants more strokes, he's doing a great job.
Instant political analysis from the NYT:
"It's hard to imagine this doesn't end his hopes of re-election," said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant, pointing to Mr. Trump's "flouting of obvious precautions."
Well, yeah, in a sane country, sure.
Conceited liberals assuming everyone wants to breathe.
I can start a thread when I get home. I'm taking a very important whiz test at the moment.
165- I figured he had already had an asymptomatic case back in April(?) after that mini-super-spreader event among various world leaders that I think ultimately got Bolsonaro.
Shouldn't the 25th amendment have already been invoked?
The length of immunity from asymptomatic cases is thought to be brief.
206: Well yeah, on Jan. 20, 2017.
It's a good thing for him his taxes got released. Now his wife knows that if she smothers him with a pillow, she won't inherit much.
She'd have to do it for the sheer joy of it.
I bet she's the kind that would enjoy it more if Trump were able to struggle. I don't know her personally, but I'm familiar with Eastern. Europe.
Which is to say, if it was to be done for joy, it would have been done years ago.
Ok, I peed well, came home, and started a new thread.
It occurs to me that a presidential health crisis creates a prime opportunity to rush through a controversial Supreme Court appointment while everyone is distracted.
On the other hand, there's one R senator, Mike Lee, who just announced an infection. A couple more could shake things up positively. It won't happen, but it's not impossible that it might.
I wrote 155 as a memo to myself not to get carried away. In fact it sounds like they'll be cancelling Trump rallies in Covid hotspots in Wisconsin, which is probably good. (I haven't been keeping track of how often these rallies become superspreading events.) Sounds like Biden tested negative, also provisionally good.
From googling around it looks like Trump rallies caused spread in Oklahoma and Arizona, but not New Hampshire or South Dakota. But background levels of covid in NH and SD were already quite low at the time of the rallies. Based on the pattern it seems like going to a place where its already widespread - like Wisconsin - would indeed be a super-spreading event.
On the other hand, there's one R senator, Mike Lee, who just announced an infection.
AFTER meeting with Judge Amy Coney Barrett. How funny would it be if the SCOTUS nominee was patient zero for this cluster?
How many R Senators would have to cross infect each other before they lost the ability to confirm Barrett?
Well, we need them to be too incapacitated to vote, so just infected won't do it. And it's a lot, because a non-vote isn't a flipped vote. There are 53 R senators and 47 Dem-equivalents, so they'd need to lose 7 to lose the vote if all Rs vote to confirm, I think. But I always screw up these calculations.
Collins and Murkowski have both said they wouldn't confirm before the election, but I don't trust them not to flip back if the Rs need them. But if they stay committed no votes, that makes the split 51-49, and three non-voting R senators breaks the tie in favor of No.
But I think they need 50 (maybe 51) for a quorum, so theoretically Dems could block that.
Oh, huh, I don't know the quorum rules at all.
No, I read that you need 51 for a quorum, and the VP doesn't count, unlike in an actual vote.
