"America First," is a matter of genuine conviction for him, and it shows up in his trade policies, too.
Racism, environmental destruction and the spread of Covid are also part of his belief system. Those things sometimes serve him poorly in obvious ways, but he believes ...
To suggest that Trump has no values that aren't self-serving isn't quite complete. His trade and military decisions alienate some core constituencies that he otherwise doesn't mind kowtowing to -- but his views are rooted in a xenophobia that he genuinely feels.
So it's not pro-Russia or something? I was wondering if I'd missed some sort of cross-interest.
Also: 1 and 2 imply that he was solely not doing this prior because he thought it would hurt his re-election chances? I'm not sure anyone knows how this would have played politically, but I could see him calculating that.
I think he's just spiting the military because they wouldn't shoot domestic opponents for him.
I think he got a lot of doublespeak, runaround, and bureaucratic/media pushback on withdrawing from Afghanistan - much like a President Sanders would have, although his reasons for inclining to withdrawal were of course much worse - so yeah, spite makes sense at this point.
And at the same time apparently contemplating some kind of attack on Iran. I think he just wants to make things as bad as possible for Biden .
He also sent Pompeo to get shunned by Turkey. Not sure why.
I think he just wants to make things as bad as possible for Biden.
Sorry to be intellectually lazy, but I think this will explain 90+ percent of weird or apparently dumb policy changes over the next 2 months. Even things that at first glance might appear to be self-interested or motivated by sincere, if horrible, principles will really be intended to screw things up and trash things as much as possible.
I find it kind of hilarious how hard it is to tell when Trump is wrecking something to spite Biden vs wrecking something because that's just what he does with every operation he runs. It's not clear that he could possibly have tried harder to wreck the coronavirus response if Biden had been set to take office in January 2020. The only thing he has taken steps to preserve out of any self-protecting impulse in the past 4 years, as far as I can tell, is the stock market.
Follow up dumb question: to what extent do we actually need to be in Iraq and Afghanistan at this point, anyway? Is it obvious that things will deteriorate into violence? Or is this just military-industrial-complex-sustainability?
I don't get the feeling that Trump even really dislikes Biden all that much. Fellow old white dude without many strong policy convictions. Wouldn't be surprised if they hung out back in the 90s when Trump was palling around with the Clintons.
To 10, IMO we do not need to be in Iraq or Afghanistan & should leave ASAP. So I'm happy about any withdrawals that are occurring (I don't know what news prompted this post). I was worried Trump would try to get some wars going to boost his poll numbers, but fortunately that never happened -- the pacifism resulting from his isolationist streak is definitely his best quality as a president.
10: I'm not any kind of an expert, but US military bases in foreign countries seems like the most domestically politically palatable way to keep them from becoming allied with or just invaded by Russia or China. It's not like cuts to the Pentagon budget are getting diverted to the Peace Corps. It feels contrary to progressive principles to support American empire, but the two leading alternatives aren't so great these days either.
the pacifism resulting from his isolationist streak is definitely his best quality as a president
This. This is why Bush is still a worse president than Trump.
Bush was a more actively evil president as far as war-starting and body count, but I'm not sure I'd pick Trump on that criterion given the opportunity, mostly because of the chaotic risk he created with North Korea, which would have been much worse if it had gotten out of hand (and much like the Cold War, I doubt anything made the actual outcome certain).
14: Also: It's got to be all over before you can say it's the best time you ever had.
Trump literally just asked his staff about bombing Iran, so the lower body-count is pretty much an accident of fate.
Iran did a deal with Obama and must be punished.
I wonder if the goal is specifically to make it impossible for Biden to return to the Obama status quo.
pacifism resulting from his isolationist streak
Sure, there's something to be said for bucking the trend of Republican presidents engaging in armed conflict for the jollies/poll boost/realpolitik/whatever but c'mon, pacifism? That's not the term. Not with the reckless increases in drone strikes under his presidency.
pacifism resulting from his isolationist streak
Sure, there's something to be said for bucking the trend of Republican presidents engaging in armed conflict for the jollies/poll boost/realpolitik/whatever but c'mon, pacifism? That's not the term. Not with the reckless increases in drone strikes under his presidency.
I'm imagining at some point John Bolton said what to himself sounded like "Look, you ignoramus, I'm trying to help you, war with Iran will cement your reelection," but in fact was too cloaked in plausible deniability for Trump to understand.
1. Start war.
2. Declare state of emergency due to war.
3. Insist that we can't change presidents during a state of emergency.
1. Start war.
2. Declare state of emergency due to war.
3. Insist that we can't change presidents during a state of emergency.
1. Start war.
2. Declare state of emergency due to war.
3. Insist that we can't change presidents during a state of emergency.
I'm still back on one anxiety. Wayne County commissioners just deadlocked on certifying the vote. So it goes to the state. (One of the Wayne County dudes said votes in Wayne outside of Detroit were OK.)
Almost certainly not going to work. But from this point forward no elections under Republican governance will be even close to a level-playing field (and generously assuming even today is close to level.)
There will be at least one Supreme Court -decided Republican President in my remaining lifetime.
29 is probably right, but I guess Wayne County did certify. The just needed to let everyone know how much they hated democracy and/or black people first.
I agree that Bush is still worse on body count so far. IIRC if Bush haven't broken the agreement that Clinton had with North Korea on denuclearization the situation might be considerably more stable today.
I've always been Pro Empire I'm not too concerned about whether that's Progressive or not although I do worry about whether it's okay in Islam. But basically all the wars in the last half-century at least have been pretty bad for the empire. I said this about Donald Rumsfeld a while ago but I think it's true of a lot of them that they'd happily kill a million people for a nickel a pop as long as they didn't have to get their hands dirty. That and not Empire is what I believe is behind most of the impetus to war these days.
Oh yeah in response to OP I think Trump just wants to get credit for being antiwar but I don't think he's actually going to accomplish anything in that direction. We're not actually going to pull out of Afghanistan for real.
So, is this why he just fired the Secretary of Defense and various DOD underlings? To get them out of the way of withdrawal?
As a last-ditch attempt at a legacy, getting the fuck out of Iraq and Afghanistan isn't bad.
A FU to the last 3 establishment Republicans? Pure flailing? Both?
There's no reason to suppose that troops will actually be withdrawn from Iraq or Afghanistan. What, we think it'll happen just because Trump says it will?
Saying he will, though, could be an act of revenge - not against Biden, though, but against his own party for not supporting him without question over recounts etc. Now McConnell and so on have to break with Trump and damage their own re-election prospects.
If you remember, he decided to evacuate US forces from Syria on a whim and then sent them back plus additional tanks because someone told him there was an oilfield there.
I think it's quite possible for McConnell and company to criticize withdrawals actual or suggested, without it being blazoned as a split. Maybe because having troops everywhere is seen as bipartisan, I don't know.
37: true. But that's partly up to Trump, isn't it? If McConnell doesn't do what Trump says, and therefore Trump decides to spend the next four years being rude about McConnell, that'll be a split in the Republican Party, whatever McConnell tries to do about it - some of McConnell's base will choose Trump over McConnell. (Or so, at least, Trump could believe.)
30: I can't decide whether I should be sheepish over my rapid (probably over-)reaction to developments like this. In this case, that blatant of an action instantly seized upon by the outgoing president and his "legal" team in conjunction with the tweet-firing of Krebs put me over the edge for a bit*. A lot of out-of-the-box badness being put into the minds of thousands of Republican fucktoids for potential future use along with the further demonization of the electoral process in the minds of the volk are the real downsides. I will note that there was a huge outcry in public comments during a meeting that may have played a role (this guy--but I think a fellow Board member--was very on point). Similarly, the outrage over the Postal Service stuff in late summer, potentially seems overblown in retrospect, but it probably helped (and is there anything ongoing over DeJoy's refusal to do the court-ordered sweep on Election Day?) So maybe alarm and rapid response has its uses (not that *my* alarm does anyone any good).
The guy on the board has one of those classic Facebook feeds with a bunch of absurdly racist Obama "memes," and the woman suggested that other communities in Wayne than Detroit could be certified (despite one, Livonia--95% white--having a higher rate of precincts with "discrepancies" than Detroit). These people are entrenched at many levels of government throughout the country.
*Our response to disengage was to watch the first two episodes of McMillions. Recommended so far. Fascinating story. (Am I misremembering or was there a post here about it?)
They are apparently proposing drawdowns in a number of other places as well (I think Germany, Somalia, and some others). I ram personally skeptical of abscribing any true isolationist or even nativist sentiments to trump. It's all transactional. But of course that does not preclude him adopting those stances during his Presidency for a variety of reasons. But I refuse to applaud the one time they made the trains run on time so it could deliver stolen loot faster.
No way american democracy would be recognizable after a second Trump term. Doubt it will be recognizable in 2030 anyway after decades of Gingrich, McConnell and the current Supremes in addition to this little fucked up interlude.
And on election stuff, was chuffed to see PA margin over 80K, ahead of NC (and almost matching the % margin). Not sure how many votes left. Probably won't get to 100K but there may be a chance if the arriving-post-Election mail-ins are counted in the end.
By a 50.0-48.8% my peeps* have rejected a clearly unfit criminal racist autocrat. We fucking rule!
LAst I looked my precinct went for Biden by 2 votes so an even smaller %. Trump won by 30 in 2016 so progress. Counseled my next door neighbor on how to vote after his mail-in ballot did not arrive. So I take half-credit. (Also persuaded and helped a potential non-voter in the precinct to vote but I think they were going to get there anyway.)
The Allegheny County precinct map illustrates quite well the ring of red around an (expanded since 2016) blue center. Almost all the inner suburbs were blue with a smattering of more far flung places blue and some "inliers" red (the 2-vote margin keeps my precinct from embarrassingly being one of the closest-in red ones).
BTW Allegheny County map guys if you are reading it, fix your GIS, the vote by precinct is supposed to pop up when you highlight like it does for all previous elections. I weary of downloading the spreadsheet to see results.
Bethel Park: blue. Fox Chapel: blue. Clairton and McKeesport: also blue. That's what we like to see. Glassport (like Clairton and McKeesport but 98% white instead of 70%: one blue district out of six.
The link in 39 is really great.
It really is. Impressive not only in content but also in delivery. Get that man a seat in Congress or something.
Similar to the FPP, I have mixed feelings about the DOJ requesting the dismissal of the prosecution of Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda, Mexico's former Secretary of Defense (indicted on drug trafficking charges).
On the one hand there is alot to worry about in the US's "world cop" role and there are probably valid diplomatic reasons to back off (although per emptywheel's post linked above we sure botched those by how the arrest went down). On the other hand, there are alot of good questions as to why this DOJ is doing this now. Most benign being Trump's pandering to his new bud in Mexico or more true transactional stuff. Perobably the former, but I am tired of bending over backward to give this administration any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
Yeah, 47 is not good news. PRI leadership is unsurprisingly happy about it. https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/11/pri-cienfuegos-retiro-cargos-eu/
I think Taliban rule in Kabul will be very bad for a whole lot of women. IMO, that might be one of the biggest reasons we've stayed, since the approaching outcome has been reasonably clear for a decade and more. Restoration of full-on Taliban rule in the metropolis would have been seen as a real embarrassment of our ambitions and self-image, I think, up until about four years ago when we demonstrated that we were beyond embarrassment.
Living in the context of a continuing military conflict is also very bad for women.
Of course, but the intensity of the conflict in Kabul is pretty different from the intensity in other parts of the country.
I've been working with a guy there trying to get a SIV for himself and his family for several years. He'll probably be done if there's a Taliban takeover -- as will a whole lot of folks.
I'm not saying it's a valid reason to stay. I think the embarrassment of how bad our defeat in Kabul would look to everyone is why we've stayed so long.
39: Ha! Apparently the racist canvass board lady in Wayne county is trying to rescind her rescindal. Signed some document claiming the vote was not binding.
Ah, the guy as well. I suspect it is an attempt to try to maintain MAGA cred.
Seems like maybe the President called them?
Driving right at the guardrails.
Yes. I think he needs to be impeached again.
He's got nothing to lose, confident that his followers will reward him for even the most marginal efforts.
Yeah, there should have been a massive distraction plan for the lame duck period. Either impeachment or a world tour.
It'd be great if every Dem in the House did their best over the next 10 days to get on the TV talking about the need for a covid relief bill. Obviously, they can't control what the TV puts on, but if enough of them are persistent enough, maybe they can break through. They can talk about the surge, about evictions, about unemployment benefits lapsing, about supporting restaurants with grant money instead of keeping them open, about how states/localities are going to have to cut services.
54: Yes. It is too late for the Wayne Co. certification to be taken back, but theoretically gives ammo for the state canvass board to balk. It is also 2 Dems and 2 Reps, but don't know if they are an Obama-meme-posting and Grosse Point QAnon-curious pair like the Wayne County ones or more Georgia and Arizona SoS republicans. Kicking the potential corruption can further down the road a little. The guardrails are people. And many of the people are fucked in the head.
I expect continuing erosion of civic norms over the coming years. Jury pools, what have you.
That GA sos is a goddam unicorn. I can't imagine he has any future in Republican politics.
Latest. Michigan lawmakers flying to DC to meet with Trump at his request. This not just a tantrum. It is a serious attempt to overturn the election results. Probably will not succeed but it is quite serious.
This in a state Biden won by 150K.
The two Wayne County Republicans are just covering their asses and getting the best of both worlds. They avoid the shitstorm that would result from actually defying the election results, but they get to claim that they tried, and that the results are crooked regardless of their own certification. Same thing with that postal worker in Pennsylvania. Claims ballot fraud in affidavit, recants when postal OIG asks about it, then recants the recantation. Gets the credit for exposing fraud without exposing himself to legal repercussions for lying to investigators.
This is Trump's thing, too. Constantly talks about how he is thwarted by the government he runs. Even as president, he plays the insurgent fighting the incompetent government.
That's only if you count the votes of Black people, Stormcrow.
62: Yes to all of that. But ...
What does it matter what the motivation is on the part of the people undermining democracy? Whatever happens, we're well past the point where the damage will outlive me.
Yeah, I get the whole futility thing. I'm oriented toward today's news, rather than the sweep of history, and all I'm saying is that the state canvass board in Michigan isn't going to do anything substantive -- they are just going to do their bit to undermine confidence in democracy without taking any responsibility so that they can set up the next fascist to steal an election.
Futility would at least be restful. This is more and harder fighting.
Flying state senators to DC is no more serious than sending Giuliani to Pennsylvania.
Or maybe it's part of a longer game. Unpleasant thought: of the ten presidents who ran for re-election and lost, one returned to the white house four years later, and two others bequeathed their grudges and their political operations to their sons, who later became presidents. Are Don Jr. and/or Ivanka meeting with the Michigan delegation?
Flying state senators to DC is no more serious than sending Giuliani to Pennsylvania.
Or maybe it's part of a longer game. Unpleasant thought: of the ten presidents who ran for re-election and lost, one returned to the white house four years later, and two others bequeathed their grudges and their political operations to their sons, who later became presidents. Are Don Jr. and/or Ivanka meeting with the Michigan delegation?
69 makes me wish I had a Jimmy Carter t-shirt.
That GA sos is a goddam unicorn. I can't imagine he has any future in Republican politics.
I'm imagining an alternate history where Brian Kemp is still SoS, and it isn't pretty.
||
Ben Carson was supposedly a brilliant, if somewhat ethically challenged surgeon. Apparently, he got both monoclonal antibodies and oleander extract for his case of COVID. Of course, he credits the oleander extract for his recovery. How do people like that get in to medical school/ rise through the ranks at a major hospital?
|>
I don't know all of the answer, but hospital administrators are rumored to be evil.
74: Probably a lot are.... though some of ours were really skilled at getting ppe and preparing for the surge.
|| So, is this a summons for ajay? https://twitter.com/MiekeEoyang/status/1329502007942582275 |>
Ever since the firing of Bennet, I would swear to you that there's a noticeable difference in NYT coverage. On the Michigan thing, it seems to me they got the headline exactly right:
Trump Asks Michigan Lawmakers to White House in Bid to Subvert Election
77: But I/m pretty sure he was opinion only.
Correlation is not causation! True! But he was seemingly fired for reasons that suggested a dramatic shift in philosophy from the NYT, and I'm arguing that shift is also clearly visible in its news columns.
Biden is signalling that I'm going to be treasury secretary. Working on my signature now, so it looks good on the money.
Protip: Do not look for Jack Lew's signature to model.
Actually I think Mnuchin's attempt to hamstring what Biden can do under CARES act relief will potentially be more damaging than either the DoD stuff , or Trump's current shenanigans.
I know I am to o much of a doomer as unimaginative will step in and reassure us. But things like Georgia SoS certifying then rescinding it and saying will be done by 5 and Kemp then calling a press Conference at 5 to discuss the election is not good for my mental health and emotional stability. Sure, he will probably just have a coordinated announcement, but holy hell.
I know all of this can be explained best by Rs trying to cover their asses for minimally doing their jobs. But fuck it all anyway.
83: And the certification is confirmed.
Yes. And actually done now. My personal anxiety and worry were part of getting it to actually happen I'm sure ...
And Michigan legislative leadership has issued a joint statement that is not definitive, but sure looks like they were not swayed by meeting with Trump personally.
Yeah, I don't see a Michigan play for Trump.
And it looks like Trump's Arizona lawsuit fell apart -- they tried to get some Dominion evidence in, but totally failed at it: https://twitter.com/dpottzzz/status/1329905186400157697 et seq.
Trump's lawyers should have watched My Cousin Vinny.
Speaking of which, the first line of this Merrick Garland opinion is pretty classic. Check out p. 11 and n. 5.
I can remember putting the little paper inserts in the pockets of the law books because before the internet, that's what lawyers did. Except no lawyer ever did it if they could make their kids do it. 89 reminds me that the internet has killed that.
90:. That used to be part of my job. Now all the books in the library are out of date.
And Michigan legislative leadership has issued a joint statement that is not definitive, but sure looks like they were not swayed by meeting with Trump personally
If only all Trump voters could have the chance to meet with Trump personally and be somewhere between unimpressed and horrified.
Guiliani's head was still leaking fluid for hours after a phone call with Trump.
This was remarkably prescient:
https://crookedtimber.org/2016/11/20/kissing-the-ring/
If this is right, the key qualities of presidential politics over the next four years will be instability, frequent policy change, palace intrigues, and Trump looking to reign triumphant above it all, not particularly caring (a la Padgett and Ansell's Cosimo) about attaining specific goals, but instead looking to preserve his position at the center of an ever shifting spider web of political relations, no matter what consequences this has for the integrity of the web. This might not be authoritarianism in the sense of a well-honed bureaucratic regime dedicated to horrible ends, but authoritarianism in terms of the general break down of Weberian order and hierarchies in favor of a largely personalized politics in which one's relationship with an erratic and unpredictable president counts for far more than one's formal position and authority (of course, all politics do depend on personal relations more than one might like, but bureaucracy and rules still usually count).
88: The trumpists are super-excited about Shiva Ayyadurai, MIT PhD ("inventor of email" -- not) and his statistical charts that "prove" votes were transferred from Trump to Biden. Having him on their side is at least -20 points of likelihood.
85: He is challenging a Senatee lection....in Massachusetts.
I just filed for an INJUNCTION to STOP certification of the US SENATE RACE in MA.
("inventor of email" -- not)
He will, not kidding, sue you if he finds out you said that.
That's ridiculous. Mike Myers invented that.
I was wondering if fuckig Toomey would sprak up. Realize I should have been calling his office. (Y+To what end I'm not sure...)