Re: Check Ins, Reassurances, and Concerns, 3/1

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I can't tell if it's time to talk about other topics or not, and all I have queued up are extremely frivolous topics, so I weenied out with this post.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 7:34 AM
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Have an earworm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwMuRu6m_aY


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 7:43 AM
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My son just tested positive for COVID. I thought he and I had dodged it.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 9:13 AM
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Hope it's a mild case.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 10:01 AM
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What Moby said


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 10:07 AM
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Thanks. I've no reason to expect otherwise. Everyone he knows has had it, a few of them more than once, so he's held out for a good while.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 10:24 AM
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Yes, fingers crossed, ttaM.

I am struggling with how to adapt to the new pan/endemic phase we're apparently entering, as exemplified in the new CDC guidelines on masking. On the one hand it's easy enough to say that whatever the guidelines I don't especially mind wearing a mask at the grocery store etc., but on the other hand I expect we'll have to decide in a couple of weeks whether my son should continue to mask at school, when the mandate likely drops. And when will we go out to dinner again? Out for drinks with colleagues after work?

I think that the limiting factor will be my wife's comfort level, unfortunately. I'm more risk-averse on these things than the median person or the developing rules, but less so than she is. I won't enjoy navigating the gap between the two of us.


Posted by: Osgood | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 10:59 AM
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School stopped requiring masks for our son yesterday. I assume he stopped wearing them, but I never asked.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:07 AM
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I am trying to quit coffee and it sucks hard.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:11 AM
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Lent starts tomorrow.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:12 AM
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I don't drink coffee after 3:00pm or so. Unless it's really good coffee or I'm at the kind of dinner where coffee is served with dessert. I'm on a cleanse though. Just pumpernickel and prunes. Juice is for the patient people.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:16 AM
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I've never Lent.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:17 AM
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re: 7

I think we are quite a long way ahead of you in terms of relaxing of rules (personally, and legally).

I've been going to the pub about once a week for a long time, and we've been to the cinema, theatres, restaurants, etc. We do still mask on public transport, in crowded public spaces, and in supermarkets--although that is no longer a requirement--but my son has never worn a mask at school.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:17 AM
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We could do all that stuff, but mostly don't. Except for Spiderman.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:22 AM
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Spiderman mostly wears his mask outside of school.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:34 AM
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13: I expect you're right. And part of the challenge is that I think my wife and I would react differently to the fact pattern you've described: your son and all his friends have had COVID but they've all been fine (and we're hoping he will be too). To many people that's evidence that it's fine to relax, once vaccinated and boosted; COVID is endemic now and we can't spend our whole lives desperately trying to dodge it. I think I'm basically there, but she's not -- to her, that's evidence that they should've been masking all along. And I'm not prepared to disregard her anxiety, of course.

I think we'll see more of our friends doing more return-to-normal-y stuff as we go through the spring and summer and with any luck that'll help to bring her along. We'll see.


Posted by: Osgood | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:44 AM
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In school would ruin the secret identity.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:45 AM
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Or is Peter Parker the real mask? Makes you think.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:46 AM
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In my classes yesterday, only a few students wore masks. (Post requirement-lifting.) But this morning, I had a class where the majority of students kept their masks on.

I am not wearing one at school anymore. I figure I really am not at risk to pass it on to others.

(Although I really do have a killer headache at the moment.)


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:53 AM
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Coffee might help.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 11:54 AM
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Two weeks ago, they tried to let the kids do the school musical without masks for those on stage. A majority of parents said that was fine, but apparently the majority was small enough that they kept the actors in masks.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:00 PM
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12: Nothing looks more borrowed than a borrowed mathematician.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:04 PM
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Nothing is as inaudible as a middle school play where the actors all wear masks.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:09 PM
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I would love some coffee.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:10 PM
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23: The high school did fine.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:12 PM
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I am trying to quit coffee

That sounds like a terrible idea.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:14 PM
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The doctor said there's a strong possibility I'll be able to tolerate stimulants if I quit coffee. Stimulants > coffee. (Otherwise I'll go back to coffee.)


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:29 PM
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You can still have Red Bull, right?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:32 PM
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It's "Spider-Man."


Posted by: Ross Geller | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:34 PM
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No, I have to drink Sad Bull now.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:41 PM
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Best wishes to you trying. It sounds rough.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 12:44 PM
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21: Helicopter parents gonna helicopter.

It's truly insane that masking is lasting *longer* in the only population where covid is genuinely less dangerous than the flu.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in" (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 1:10 PM
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I'll be able to tolerate stimulants if I quit coffee

Seems like just drinking way more coffee would be an easier solution.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 1:13 PM
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No helipad, but I have seen kids picked up in a town car.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 1:16 PM
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33: I tried that. I threw up.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 1:17 PM
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33: Spoken like someone who's never been prescribed stimulants.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 2:12 PM
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You'd probably need to go to a doctor for that.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 2:28 PM
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I know a guy.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 2:48 PM
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18: Superman didn't become Superman. Superman was born Superman. When Superman wakes up in the morning, he's Superman.

His alter ego is Clark Kent. His outfit with the big red "S", that's the blanket he was wrapped in as a baby when the Kents found him. Those are his clothes. What Kent wears -- the glasses, the business suit -- that's the costume. That's the costume Superman wears to blend in with us.

Clark Kent is how Superman views us. And what are the characteristics of Clark Kent? He's weak. he's unsure of himself. He's a coward. Clark Kent is Superman's critique on the whole human race.


Posted by: OPINIONATED BILL | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 2:50 PM
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That movie mostly sucked.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:02 PM
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It gets better with repeat viewing. I have no idea how many times I've watched it, but I think it helps to be a bit numbed-out to its excesses.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:10 PM
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The animal people on NextDoor are nuts. Hopefully it's just stress from the news being so worrying, but when somebody has a relative die and they can't take the relative's older dog, maybe it isn't useful to point out that not taking the dog to a certified dog-rescue person(r) will lead to the dog being used as bait for training other dogs by people in a dog fighting ring.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:12 PM
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Blaspheme! The spin-the-world-backwards-on-its-axis-to-reverse-time trick is one of the coolest moves ever.


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:13 PM
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On the other hand, I will never find out if The Hateful Eight works that way.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:13 PM
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43: Either you're misunderstanding Moby or we need to move this conversation to Standpipe's blog.

(And 44 was intended as an addendum to 41.)


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:15 PM
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Gene Hackman as Bill.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:20 PM
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Plus Marlon Brando, after he started phoning it in but before he started wearing a bathrobe for every role.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:25 PM
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Pebbles is still wearing a mask at school as the school isn't clear about whether she counts as "exposed" if she's not wearing one. They have to shut down if they have a certain number of exposures and I need kindergarten open. Hoping to have more details soon - I'm not sure compliance has been great lately. (Masks have never been required so if she doesn't put it back on after snack no one reprimands her, and she still is better than half of the adults in Utah.

I taught without a mask today for the first time since fall 2020. My personal line now is obviously wear it if the establishment requires it, or if I'm sniffly but I feel like I might as well take advantage of the lull in COVID now to try out getting back to normal in teaching. Treating the mask as a tool to be used when necessary.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:26 PM
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Re masks: if I go into medical offices, I have to wear a mask. They will be required at my church at least until there is a vaccine for the kids under 5. I expect that I'll wear one on public transit for a while. It is a giant hassle to get it, and I worry about long COVID and getting the immunocompromised sick. It isn't easy to get a script for treatment now, so until it's easier to protect the vulnerable, I'm going to mask up. Also, even in a highly vaccinated state, the big surge in cases in Jan and Feb really taxed our healthcare system, so I think limiting transmission still has value.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:26 PM
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32: anot clear to me that COVID in the vaccinated is less dangerous than the flu to a vaccinated (against flu) person. A lot of people aren't boosted, so we had a decent chunk of fully vaccinated older people who got hospitalized with omicron. Fewer deaths, but still hospitalizations. It was a drain, and we don't have good systems to get people treatment quickly. The COVID vaccines lose efficacy against infection after a few months. We still don't know what older patients need to stay safe, so not getting it for a while is probably helpful at the population level.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:31 PM
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It's become pretty clear that boosters make a huge difference in vaccine efficacy for all groups. We should really be making more of an effort to get everyone boosted.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:36 PM
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I quit coffee over the holiday break just to reset my dependence on it. I had headaches for the first week or so then felt better. Then when I started drinking it again it took a lot less to have an effect. I don't know how long you've been off but the unpleasantness shouldn't last too long.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 3:59 PM
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Now I want a Superman story where it's obvious to everyone that he's an alien doing a bad human impression but they all humor him.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 4:07 PM
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51: Totally agree.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 4:26 PM
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52: I can't believe you voluntarily chose this misery.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 4:30 PM
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So, I snuck my booster in at the end of July. Am I supposed to get a second booster ever? I'm guessing since I had the actual thing, it's not an urgent question, but I'm sort of curious.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 4:32 PM
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The CDC says you should get one on April 26th.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 4:40 PM
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54 to 51 & 53.

56: Latest I've seen is that so far there's no sign of the rapid booster fade that we saw from the 1-2 regimen. IOW, it's probably not right to characterize it as 2 shots plus booster, but as a 3-shot regimen that will require boosters in a year or three.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 5:20 PM
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so I think limiting transmission still has value

It's just really unclear to me that any plausible* mask regimen meaningfully reduces transmission. 90% cloth? Probably not. 80% surgical? Probably not. 80% N95? Probably, but not IMO plausible without closing things down (because 80% of people living semi-normal lives are simply not going to be always wearing N95s). And of course there's still basically no unambiguous evidence that masking small kids affects community spread. There's just anecdotal assertion that any family member of a small child who contracts COVID must have gotten it from unmasked children in schools, not from the 15 more plausible vectors.

We have a goal, and we have a method, but we don't worry too much about whether the one leads to the other.

[BTW the personal line in 48 is me]

*in the US


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 5:28 PM
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I really just don't understand the "wait for vaccines for kids under 5" viewpoint. Covid is just not very dangerous for kids under 5, certainly not as bad as RSV or flu, and *this is exactly why it's taking so long to get approval*. It's really hard to prove that the vaccine helps when your baseline level of danger is very low! It may never be clear that vaccines are beneficial for kids under 5.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 6:29 PM
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59: yup. If there's strain on the hospitals, perhaps the marginal effect of universal masking slows down the spread (but probably nowhere near as much as short school/work closures or deciding not to go out when cases are high.) But without that the effect of masks seems to be marginal, especially as an individual measure.

60: moreover the test is for immune response, not even severe disease prevention. I'm not confident they're necessary for kids 5-12 - but I am confident they're safe.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 7:19 PM
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I think there's a lot of evidence that if you share a space for 6-8 hours, probably even less, a mask is probably not going to hold up. But if you're getting a haircut, wearing masks can be a benefit. But if you're in a shared space for 6-8 hours with a mask on and you get a haircut with a mask on, you're probably not getting much benefit from the haircut masking. And if you spend 6-8 hours giving haircuts, you're also not going to benefit as much from the mask, though you're biggest risk is probably still your coworkers.

Last summer I went to campus and we didn't wear masks for about six weeks when cases were low and people were fine. Then we wore masks when cases were Delta-high and people were still fine. MPOW has a very high vaccination rate and weather permits eating outside most of the year. All hell broke loose with Omicron, no one had any idea which of the many available transmission routes caused the most illnesses, and they told all of us who can work remotely to stay off campus as much as possible.

I have yet to be on campus in 2022 and am starting the process of applying to be full-time remote. And planning to move to Los Angeles or vicinity. My parents are still holding on but they definitely need enough help that living near them will make a big difference, especially when my dad has treatments. I've also been looking to get out of the Bay Area for a while.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 03- 1-22 8:39 PM
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Have some personal news (and waited a bit as I wanted to give Ile's some room): my wife is pregnant. We're expecting in late July. Terribly excited, nervous, all of that.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 3:13 AM
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Congrats!🎉


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 3:42 AM
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59 and 60:

The Bangladesh study showed fairly significant reductions. Cloth masks aren't great, but even a 30% reduction would lower counts at the population level to get the R a below 1 - enough to make it worthwhile in crowded places like public transit.

I think general distancing also helps.

60: What is your evidence for the statement that COVID is less severe than the flu in kids? And, btw we routinely vaccinate kids for flu. I don't have the numbers in front of me for the under 5s, but it's about 1200 confirmed deaths in the under 18 population and about 1/3 of those since December. In 2017-2018 flu season, there were 188 confirmed pediatric flu deaths and maybe 600 estimated in a world with no mitigation. Of course flu transmission has been so low, flu has not posed much of a risk to kids the past two years at all.

And if kids get sick they can spread it to other people unwittingly, so to the extent that they give it to an unvaccinated person, who spreads it to a vulnerable, immunocompromised person that's a problem. The immunocompromised don't generally wear signs stating their condition (though there are some T shirts). Poor and disabled folks can't necessarily afford to buy N95s.



Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 4:18 AM
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But, basically, this line of reasoning makes me really angry. Anybody's individual risk is not the most important issue.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 4:22 AM
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63: Hooray and congratulations.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 5:18 AM
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65: when there's not a mandate, no one is getting close to that (contested, even before omicron) 30% reduction. So the question that a lot of people are considering is what's the marginal benefit of sending one's kid to school in a mask if less than one in ten kids are wearing them - it quickly becomes an individual calculation, and it's really hard to see how masking a vaccinated 5 year old (say) meaningfully reduces the risk for an immunocompromised person who is perhaps two or three degrees of separation away.

I'm not arguing that we don't need to be careful but that we're at the point of diminishing marginal returns, and it's maybe not crazy given that plenty of other countries drew the line w.r.t. kids masking differently without meaningful differences in transmission.

Where I'm at: The CDC is saying there's no need for low risk people in low or moderate areas to be masking. Do we take their guidance or not?

63:. Oh yay! Babies are great!


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 7:05 AM
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Here's the first google hit. But this is just well-known and has been well-known since the first months of the pandemic. In fact, it's one of the hallmark differences between flu and coronaviruses: flu has a U-shaped age risk while coronaviruses are just worse the older you are. (This is even one of the arguments in favor of the 1889 pandemic being OC43, it's age and sex risk profile looks like covid and not like flu.)


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 7:19 AM
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Partially, that's because men who have a goatee are at greater risk of death from covid and that's hard to have for nearly all children.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 7:21 AM
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63: More babies. Hooray!


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 7:29 AM
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68: Cross country comparisons are tricky, because different countries have a different mix of interventions. In the Bangladesh study they were able to show improvement at the population level through nudges and free masks in certain villages.

The CDC guidance completely changed to whether your hospitals are about to get overwhelmed which completely ignores that by the time your hospitals are starting to get overwhelmed the surge is in progress. The situation I'm in is that schools are dropping mask mandates right after February vacation as we are just coming off of a surge. They have basically plateaued now and went up a tiny bit in the last week. The recommendations changed because they changed the goalposts.

South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are the countries I would look to mostly. Other countries without masks also have better sick leave policies. In addition to masks, I think policies which make it easy for sick people to stay home are important - both for their own health and for the health of others.

The countries that didn't mask kids that did well (New Zealand, Australia) had lockdowns and quarantines.

69: I believe that there is some evidence that younger kids were more affected by omicron. Pediatric ICUs were overrun at one point, because there aren't as many of them.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 7:43 AM
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Thanks to government handouts, you can barely get anyone to give you a baby if you teach them to spin straw into gold. If you do, they just google your name.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 7:44 AM
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Yes omicron is worse rather than better for little kids, but I don't think to the point where it's substantially worse than flu. Also a bunch of the pediatric ICU issues were that the was a big RSV outbreak and a lot of covid/RSV coinfections. But mostly it's that when you have truly enormous numbers of infections even tiny percentage risks are large absolute numbers, but we no longer have truly enormous numbers anymore.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 7:59 AM
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Congrats, dalriata! To be born in the UK??


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 8:07 AM
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63. Congratulations to you both.


Posted by: chris y | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 8:19 AM
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74: right. If you told me we were going to beef up contact tracing and isolation now that cases are down and it was easy to get treatment if infected, I'd feel better about dropping masks. And I'm plann8ng to wear a mask on the subway in winter pretty much permanently.

And RSV is a big deal and needs a vaccine too.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 8:23 AM
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I thought we'd kind of decided to let a bunch of people die but not talk about it too much because there's not really anything we can do to stop it given the fuck heads.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 8:30 AM
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Congrats, Dalriata!! Hooray!


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 8:55 AM
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78: I'm totally not ok with the fact that 2000 people died yesterday. It seems like we're willing to tolerate, as Andy Slavitt said, an extra couple hundred thousand deaths a year but politicians aren't willing to say out loud. I'm not ok with that. In fact, I thin' it's morally reprehensible.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:08 AM
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63: Congratulations!


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:12 AM
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80: I think the best choice is to take the political loss and move on. Trying to force people to say it aloud seems to cause political damage to only the people who have tried to stop the deaths.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:24 AM
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82: I think we (including those of us on unfogged) need to keep working in our communities to try to reduce the number of deaths and to advocate for better policies.


Posted by: Boatoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:30 AM
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I'm not saying anyone should stop working, but further lowering the risk among populations where nearly everyone eligible is boosted is not going to cut excess hospitalization by much and probably isn't going to make a noticeable difference in death statistics. The sickness/dying are mostly happening in communities where I have absolutely no influence and where I'm unlikely to ever have any influence because one of the main political goals in those areas is to troll people who vote like I do.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:40 AM
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The best case scenario isn't that you decrease the number of deaths but rather that you space the same number of deaths out over more time. By far the most likely scenario is it makes almost no different. The bad scenario is that it leads to more deaths because fewer people get Omicron and instead get a more deadly next variant as their first exposure.

Before vaccination was widely available these NPIs were actually saving lives because more people would have their first exposure after vaccination, but now they're just not going to make a significant difference. That's true whether you "accept" it or not.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:52 AM
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84: In Arlington, MA, a formerly working class urban adjacent town, now filled with young professionals, including a lot of doctors, the pediatric vaccination rate is 95%. In Boston public schools, it's 38%, and that's a majority minority group which epvites Democratic - heavily. (Some are non citizens.). Some of the other less well off towns are at only 12%. I don"t think the people of Boston are trolling people like you.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:52 AM
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85: With good vaccines and treatments you can decrease the number of deaths. Also, if you delay the infection of an old person long enough, they die of heart disease instead.

The more transmission, the greater the number of new variants.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:55 AM
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I'm happy to dedicate resources specifically to trying to stop new variants, but masking in the US is not going to make a big difference there. Variants are driven primarily by chronic infections in immunocompromised people. Getting more vaccines to areas of the world hard hit by HIV should be a priority, getting better treatment to immunocompromised people should be a priority. Getting infections rates down to 10/100k/day instead of 12/100k/day is not a priority.

Even if you think just about masking, it's better to mask for the one worst month each year and not the rest of the year rather than hang on for a few months now. New covid infections are just not a big deal in the US right now (deaths are still high because they're a trailing indicator).


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:05 AM
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You can obviously decrease the number of deaths in a different political environment. Canada has about 1/3 the per capita death rate. For their own political goals, a group decided to try to block those policies in the United States and they were successful. It's horrible and makes me think less of many people, but pretending they didn't win is just exhausting resources that could help the next fight go better.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:13 AM
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Honestly at this point I'm more concerned about SARS3 than SARS2. We got pretty lucky this time that the death rates were so relatively low, and may not be so lucky next time. Based on SARS1 and SARS2 I kind of expect new coronaviruses every decade or so.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:24 AM
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Pretty worried about measles and whooping cough too, I don't think the Republican "let's all get sick for freedom" thing is going to be containable to just covid.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:28 AM
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I expect a general rise in morality and morbidity from infectious disease as public health is now a political question and poverty is getting worse.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:29 AM
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93

92 before seeing 91, but that's much of my worry too.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:31 AM
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It's going to be bizarre if mRNA vaccines keep being amazing and we end up in a situation where as long as you avoid interacting with Republicans you never get sick, but rural areas have constant measles outbreaks.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:33 AM
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Rural areas are going to have trouble holding medical personnel.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:38 AM
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You don't need medical personnel if no one goes to the doctor. Maybe they'll lean into the whole ivermectin thing and just go to vets.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: "Pause endlessly, then go in." (9) | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:48 AM
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If you put off going to the doctor until it's too late, you usually need more medical care than you would have to start.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:53 AM
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I guess you might get life-flighted to a city hospital.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 10:56 AM
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Thank you all! Yes, the intent is to have the birth at an NHS hospital in the UK. We've thought things over and we intend to be here for a while, assuming there continues to be a here.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:05 AM
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You should probably wait at least for the new bridge on Forbes.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:08 AM
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Nobody wants to bring a baby into a world where you can't go past Dallas without going all the way up to Penn.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:10 AM
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I used to support vaccination but now I'm outraged by toilet paper. The sight of a sink near a toilet is offensive to me and using it is a violation of my rights as an American.


Posted by: fake accent | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:12 AM
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101: All the best stuff is on our side of the hollow, anyway. But they should take the opportunity to use the Forbes Avenue Extension name all the way to the new bridge, or at least Braddock.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:16 AM
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104

Dee's is overrated.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:22 AM
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105

102: The government only wants you to touch your own butthole because technically it makes you gay.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:29 AM
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Sponge on a stick for me. They should leave one by every public toilet.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:33 AM
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Speaking of masks, You can see why DeSantis will be the 2024 nominee if Trump doesn't run. And per follow-up tweet it appears these were HS students not college students.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 11:55 AM
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I do think that not wanting to look like a Republican is a perfectly good reason to wear a mask. I haven't stopped for that reason.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:01 PM
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88: It's masking for kids who aren't vaccinated and it's dropping vaccine mandates in restaurants that concerns me, which Boston recently did.

I think they are not sure how much is due to chronic infections in the immunocompromised, but they are not doing enough to get vaccines to the rest of the world. Dumping vaccine 6 weeks before it is going to expire doesn't cut it.

Infections are still above June 2020 levels, and they haven't yet scaled up the medications yet. I think holding on to mask mandates in schools and public places for another month so that treatment could get scaled up would have made sense.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:08 PM
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107: I Think Bouie is right on this one, though: DeSantis just looks like an asshole there. And people say, "Trump's an asshole and people love him," but Trump had 30 years of being lionized as a successful guy*, plus he clearly has some sort of underlying entertainment instincts**. DeSantis and the other wannabes have none of this.

Might end up being enough to become a nominee, if nobody else compelling runs (or if everyone running is trying the exact same schtick), but I don't think it resonates more broadly.

*New Yorkers knew it was largely bullshit, but the rest of the country doesn't seem to have understood the serial failures? I've never quite understood that part.

**I've never found him funny or clever or charming, but if you go back far enough, to the '80s and '90s, you can see that there's a certain charisma or presence or whatever.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:35 PM
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It's a little bit like Ed Koch and Chris Christie: they're both belligerent, loudmouth assholes with bad politics. But with Koch there was always a glimmer--he was having fun in front of the cameras, he was riding the line between teasing and bullying. Whereas Christie has just pure asshole vibes--I don't ever recall him saying anything funny or remotely playful.

In the end neither of them had any larger success, but Koch is remembered for his personality, Christie for his fuckups.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:40 PM
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111: Yes that might well be. As Scott Lemieux put it pithily:

Obviously it's impossible to be too much of an asshole to win the Republican nomination, but it is possible to be the *wrong kind* of asshole (cf. Chris Christie, Scott Walker)


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:53 PM
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**I've never found him funny or clever or charming, but if you go back far enough, to the '80s and '90s, you can see that there's a certain charisma or presence or whatever.

The only time I got a glimmer of it was when he was making fun of the other Republican candidates. "Low Energy" is funny. But mostly I loathe him too much for it to extend beyond that one Jeb-jab, plus he's is basically a dingbat.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:54 PM
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Koch doesn't have a signature meme like Christie on a beach


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:54 PM
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I find it highly annoying that DeSantis is slightly younger than me.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 12:55 PM
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If you traveled at near the speed of light for long enough, you could change that.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 1:04 PM
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114 "How'm I doing?" wasn't good enough for you?


Posted by: Opinionated Mayor Koch | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 1:12 PM
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That seems implied, yes.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 1:21 PM
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110: New Yorkers knew it was largely bullshit, but the rest of the country doesn't seem to have understood the serial failures? I've never quite understood that part.

Not that I think it really would have mattered*, but I found it interesting and infuriating that for the most part the NYT gave most of its coverage of Trump to its dreadful national political team and really sidelined (except for a couple of articles) the local reporters who really knew Trump's record and had covered him for years. Understandable at some level, but the crappiness of the national team coverage was determinative.

*Of course in that close of a race , anything can matter. But also the cursed data whiz kids on Clinton's team were convinced from polling/focus groups that there was no way to dislodge the Apprentice illusion of masterful businessman.

**It is complicated by Haberman having the local coverage background, but there is whole complicated story on her coverage and her TV appearances. Not quite "apologies" for Trump, but sort of an exasperated, "You dummies don't really*understand* him as a person." I do think she considers him unfit, but is often at pains to explain how he captivates people.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 2:38 PM
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119.last requires more writing and thinking than I have the patience for and most certainly than you folks have the patience to read.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 2:40 PM
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119 is a good point. In a better world, a metro reporter would have been riding shotgun on every substantial story.

Everything else aside, I suspect that management decided that he was enough of a national figure not to need that kind of local angle, but that in and of itself concedes the crucial ground, because his national fame was all PR bullshit. Like literally 100%--there was never any reason for him to be a national figure (he was never that rich, he never was the biggest fish in NYC real estate, not that that normally makes one a national figure), but to the extent he was, it was giving lots of interviews and projecting an image. Well, that and having national media being based in the town where he was tabloid fodder. But obviously most rich New Yorkers don't develop national pop culture profiles.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 2:48 PM
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Check Ins, Reassurances, and Concerns, 2/23.51: I solved Semantle #27 in 20 guesses. My first guess had a similarity of 14.24. My first word in the top 1000 was at guess #7. My penultimate guess had a similarity of 60.03 (998/1000).

I've tried it a few times and it's mostly been a frustration , however:

I solved Semantle #33 in 20 guesses. My first guess had a similarity of 4.86. My first word in the top 1000 was at guess #3. My penultimate guess had a similarity of 21.44

My 8th guess was the 8th closest word. Went backwards from there a bit before getting lucky.

In contrast I abandoned the day before after something like 300 guesses and precisely 0 words in the top 1000. Got stuck in a distant and deceptive local minimum...


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 8:58 PM
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123

Some pretty crazy stuff dropped by the J6 committee. For instance this email from Pence's counsel to John Eastman during Jan 6.

I do apologize for that particular language, which was unbecoming of me [I think he had said "bullshit" in the prior email--JPS], and reflective of a man whose wife and three young children are currently glued to news reports as I am moved about to locations where we will be safe from people, "mostly peaceful" as CNN might say, who believed with all their hearts the theory they were sold about the powers that could legitimately be exercised at the Capitol on this day. Please forgive me for that. But the advice provided has, whether intended to or not, functioned as a serpent in the ear of the President of the United States, the most powerful office in the entire world. For the record, we were in the middle of an open, widely televised debate that was airing every single point that you gave members of Congress to make when all of this went down and we had to suspend. I am not for a moment suggesting that you intended this result. But we were in fact giving you precisely the transparent debate that you suggest we were not. It was then up to you and the legal team to arm members with a case at least sufficient to convince a Senate that our own party controls. I'm not hearing that case at the moment, which I was anticipating with great interest (having previously reviewed many of the underlying filed materials), because the Senate floor has been abandoned. Respectfully, it was gravely, gravely irresponsible for you to entice the President with an academic theory that had no legal viability, and that you well know we would lose before any judge who heard and decided the case. And if the courts declined to hear it, I suppose it could only be decided in the streets. The knowing amplification of that theory through numerous surrogates, whipping large numbers of people into a frenzy over something with no chance of ever attaining legal force through actual process of law, has led us to where we are. I do not begrudge academics debating the most far-flung theories. I love doing it myself, and I view the ferment of ideas as a good and helpful thing. But advising the President of the United States, in an incredibly constitutionally fraught moment, requires a seriousness Of purpose, an understanding Of the difference between abstract theory and legal reality, and an appreciation Of the power Of both the office and the bully pulpit that, in my judgment, was entirely absent here. I'll say no more. And perhaps at some future Federalist Society Convention, we can more fully engage in the academic debate.

Many thoughts.

1) These rancid motherfuckers, even Pence's counsel
although,
2) I am impressed he came up with that long and coherent of a reply under the circumstances
3) Holy fucksticks motherfucker, they inspired people to want to kill your boss don't apologize for saying "bullshit."
4) Let's debate the proper way to coup at a future Fed Soc event is the real topper.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:16 PM
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Fed Soc motherfuckers up against the wall.

At some point* in the future, the fact that every major law school had a Fed Soc will be viewed as if they hosted a Klan Chapter.

*Though that point will be some ways in the future after we go through a long period of them winning as they surely are going to now. Well after I am dead. but tell them I predicted it back in the before times.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 2-22 9:19 PM
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Covid boy seems fine. 24 hours or so of being feverish and a bit flu-like, and now he's back to normal.

Sometimes it's nice to be reminded how nice physical human contact can be. I went to the pub last night with an old friend, and the bar manager is another friend, and the long term partner/girlfriend of another friend of ours. She's almost parodically jolly and touch-feely, so when we came in, it was big hugs and kisses all round. Then, every time she came over the table to take our order, leaning on my shoulder, or taking the order with her arm around one or other of us, etc. That kind of unselfconscious human touch is something that's been quite low through the pandemic, and it's really nice.


Posted by: nattarGcM ttaM | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 3:55 AM
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123 is a little hard for me to follow. Is he saying "We were leaving you a trail of bread crumbs to give you legal cover to overturn the election, and you had to go and burn shit down instead"?


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 7:10 AM
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125 is good news, and I couldn't agree more about the casual touch.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 7:15 AM
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126: I don't think so. I think he's saying "you and I know the theory you told Trump is bullshit. If you had a workable theory, you could have told Republicans in Congress and they would've overturned the vote, but your BS theory was never going to stand."

It's like a judge who wants the prosecutor to win telling him that he needs to do a better job, that the case he's presented is too crappy for the judge to pretend to believe.


Posted by: JRoth | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 7:18 AM
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Genuine harm to the Republic from the Supreme Court today. You'd think that a position that Justices Sotomayor and Gorsuch can agree on -- which is self-evidently correct -- would be able to win some votes.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/20-827_i426.pdf

But no.

Read Gorsuch first.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 8:42 AM
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126: Yeah, it is not completely clear what Pence's counsel would have wanted (and probably surrounding message give some further context). But I think it is pretty much what's in 128 he knew it was not going to work for *this* election with this set of facts, but he wanted the debate in Congress to set the tone. I suspect when the Supremes ultimately settle on the doctrine of supremacy of gerrymandered Republican state legislatures in all things presidential elections this guy will be right there with them after their polite Fed Soc "debates."


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 9:41 AM
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129: Thank you for linking off to that - the dissenting opinion sure makes sense.

Congratulations on your impending child Dalrita!


Posted by: Mooseking | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 5:35 PM
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Hey Mooseking, is your wife doing better?

I seem to have PTSD from my car crash, yay. Did not help that this morning I saw a large SUV with heavily reinforced rostrum shoot out from a stop sign and smash right into a small black car directly in front of it, spinning it around 90 degrees. Black car absolutely had the right of way, "cross traffic does not stop" clearly marked (I have been at that stop sign dozens of times), and... it was directly in front of the SUV, like six feet away, moving along at 20 mph or so in fairly heavy traffic. It was as though the SUV driver saw a small break in traffic and decided to go for it (I instinctively hit my brakes when I saw it move), but there wasn't a break, there was an entire car right there. Do these big vehicles have blind spots the size of a car now?


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 6:21 PM
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I just got served with a lawsuit from my crash (on coup day). A deputy with a dog showed up. Left the dog in the car.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 6:32 PM
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132.last: Yes.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 7:48 PM
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134: wow, that video is nuts! Also, Keith Bontrager!


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 7:58 PM
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Yeah, wow. It's hard to imagine any other explanation for this collision, honestly -- either "literally couldn't see it" or more worrying derangement.


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 03- 3-22 8:08 PM
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At Hamilton. Because being five years off trend is easier.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 10:31 AM
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There's a working pay phone here. It's like live theater is committed to supporting other anachronistic things.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 10:40 AM
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There are now 7 posts on the front page. Not a complaint. Just trying to figure the heuristic.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 10:44 AM
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Flood the zone, Moby.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 1:16 PM
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141

The real question is what topic of discussion are the front pagers trying to bury.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 1:24 PM
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142

That was good. People should know about it.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 2:30 PM
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George Washington as a bald guy with a three-day beard was different.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 3:08 PM
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While picking up take out, I'm overhearing what I think is a first date. She's a dog person but not the kind that gets a rescue dog. The $2,000 French Bulldog kind.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 4:08 PM
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He seems like a tool. I think it will work out.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 4:09 PM
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I should probably stop judging strangers.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 4:10 PM
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Ron Howard made a movie with Cyndi Lauper, Jeff Goldblum, Julian Sands and Peter Falk, but I'm just finding out now?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 5:04 PM
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That was like eight threads ago. Try to keep up.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 5:09 PM
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It's like nobody told Julian Sands it was supposed to be a shitty movie.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 5:14 PM
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150

Holy shit. Steve Buscemi.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 5:15 PM
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151

That sounds like a different version of Hamilton than the one I saw.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 5:18 PM
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I feel like Steve Buscemi and Julian Sands are never coming back.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 5:38 PM
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I guess I missed this because I spent all but a few months of the 80s in a town with only one movie screen.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 5:57 PM
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154

I was wrong.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 6:08 PM
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I didn't know the there was a different actor playing Rockford's dad in the first episode.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 03- 5-22 7:00 PM
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