Re: Majority

1

if you discount any precincts which were ineligible to vote for me, i won the popular vote.


Posted by: cleek | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:41 PM
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I for one look forward to America choosing between an African and a Panamanian.


Posted by: Gonerill | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:41 PM
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Pan-African Mania!


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:43 PM
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Once you count up the number of points scored, instead of the number of sets won, then many Wimbledon titles will need to be reassigned.


Posted by: Gonerill | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:44 PM
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I still haven't seen a Clinton lawn sign or bumper sticker in Portland.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:44 PM
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Warning: I'm a devoted Obama supporter; you must be comfortable living in a house with an Obama yard sign in front of the house.

Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:47 PM
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||
About twenty minutes ago, there was a knock at my door, which I didn't answer, because this is prime Jehovah's Witness/kid selling magazines hour. But now I think it was probably my neighbor, and I feel bad about not answering. I blame Jesus.
>


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:49 PM
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Can't you peek?


Posted by: Witt | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:51 PM
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But now I think it was probably my neighbor, and I feel bad about not answering.

And now she's dead. Better put on a suit before the local news crew arrives.


Posted by: Gonerill | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:52 PM
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I'm watching the Obama speech, and I don't know if anybody has ever noticed this before, but that guy really knows how to talk.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:52 PM
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No, my door has a weird peephole with a cover that you have to physically flip up to reveal an actual hole, rather than a little lens; totally useless.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:52 PM
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And now she's dead.

This was also my thought. I blame my mother.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:53 PM
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Republicans don't have the strength to negotiate. Bush goes to Saudi Arabia "begging them for oil."

Sweet.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:54 PM
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Actually, she's fine, but now she's going to inform on you. Best not to answer the next knock on the door.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:55 PM
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But now I think it was probably my neighbor Ed McMahon bringing an enormous check from Publishers Clearing House, and I feel bad about not answering.

Bummer, dude.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:56 PM
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Could you have asked "Who's there?" Or is it exam week on the quiet floor?


Posted by: Ardent reader | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:56 PM
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"Sir, or madam, truly your forgiveness I implore..."


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:58 PM
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Hillary's staff have begun providing quotes for post-mortems.


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 8:59 PM
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That's from a few days ago. Yglesias says that she was talking tonight about being ahead in the popular vote.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:01 PM
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<orgasm>
Republicans don't have the strength to negotiate. Bush goes to Saudi Arabia "begging them for oil."
</orgasm>


Posted by: TJ | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:02 PM
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Ogged, I've already told you of a surefire way to send those JH and LDS evangelists running for the nearest exit, but here it is again: You just look them in the eye and say, gently but firmly, "Oh. No, I'm a Roman Catholic." Don't just say "Catholic," because that will only egg them on and make them want to load you up with pamphlets. It's the "Roman" bit that will scare them, of course.


Posted by: Mary Catherine | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:04 PM
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McAuliffe was on CNN talking popular vote yesterday. Apparently, if you give Obama a zero in Michigan, it helps Clinton a lot.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:04 PM
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Can somebody tell me, without resorting to snark, what Clinton is doing at this point? Really, this nonsense of being more devoted than ever to having every vote counted while having her flying monkeys claim that she's up in the popular vote, what's her end game? I'm really not seeing it unless the point is: 1) some fantasy in which the supers, who are now breaking for Obama in numbers, reverse course and hand her the nomination; or 2) to wound Obama badly enough that he loses the general and she runs again four years from now. Really, I'm completely confused, because this is not how someone who's a professional politician acts. Am I missing something?


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:06 PM
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Oh good. I was reading the thread at Yglesias's and pounding my head against the wall. Rather painful. The former, that is.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:07 PM
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JH and LDS evangelists

I do pretty well with them; I just politely tell them no while I slowly close the door. It's the pathetic ethnic teenagers and their damn subscriptions that I always give in to. The last one I just handed some cash. Don't bother me, don't you dare send me anything, here, just take the money.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:07 PM
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19: Well, sure. She will of course continue to be talking about the popular vote until June, if not August, if not November, if not beyond.


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:07 PM
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Ogged, I've already told you of a surefire way to send those JH and LDS evangelists running for the nearest exit, but here it is again: You just look them in the eye open the door naked from the waist down


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:08 PM
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Asking not to be bothered or sent anything is the soft bigotry of low expectations, racist.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:08 PM
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The last one I just handed some cash.

That's probably not the best way to discourage people from coming around.


Posted by: Jackmormon | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:08 PM
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wound Obama badly enough that he loses the general and she runs again four years from now

Somewhere I saw Russert quoted as saying that her staff is laying the ground from 2012. I'll try to find it; I'm not sure what it means though.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:09 PM
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I suspect that LDS missionaries would back off if you told them you were Shia Muslim.


Posted by: Jackmormon | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:10 PM
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Can somebody tell me, without resorting to snark, what Clinton is doing at this point?

Pissing me off.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:11 PM
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33

Leave it to Ari to try to turn this into a serious political thread.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:11 PM
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Snarkily? Maybe Obama will get assassinated.
Non-snarkily? No one's decided what to do about Florida and Michigan yet, right?


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:11 PM
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I hope Clinton's people aren't hoping that they can pressure Obama into picking her as VP by threatening to tear the party apart. But I wouldn't put it past them.


Posted by: Jackmormon | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:11 PM
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No one's decided what to do about Florida and Michigan yet, right?

I don't think it matters anymore. She can't make up the difference.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:12 PM
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Does Russert, like, actually know things? Is there anything for which he was the first and a reliable source?


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:12 PM
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My practical answer is that she's raising money. My emotional answer is that it takes a titanic ego and plutonium-quality determination to run for president, and therefore it takes a whole heck of a lot of negative feedback to make a dent in your armor. Especially when you got as close to success as she has (I'm not looking at you, Paul Tsongas).


Posted by: Witt | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:14 PM
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34: Florida and Michigan don't change anything. Unless you're talking about the popular vote. Which doesn't change anything. But even then, you have to count Clinton's MI popular vote and give Obama a 0 for the state. You also have to not count four caucus states. Then Clinton is up in the popular vote by a fraction of a percentage point. I think.

33: I'm sorry. Seriously, I am. I'm just mystified. And there are smart people here who follow this stuff as carefully as I do. And I need help trying to figure out this string of seemingly irrational acts (is that sexist?).


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:14 PM
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I wish I could find it. He cited people inside her campaign. Hell if I know.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:14 PM
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36: No, but she might be able to make the case that the superdelegates (still formally uncommitted) can break back. Either that, or she's trying to raise money, which just sickens me on the behalf of small donors.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:15 PM
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Someone suggested to me that she's still running because she's convinced that Obama can't win states like Kentucky and West Virginia without her on the ballot, and that her performance there will guarantee her the VP slot even though she knows she can't be president. My responses were (a) that's insane and (b) it's racism that keeps Obama from doing well there, and that doesn't go away if she's running for VP. On the other hand, I can't think of any less insane explanations.


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:15 PM
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Can somebody tell me, without resorting to snark, what Clinton is doing at this point?

Even the most whirly-eyed Obama supporters admit that the contest is all about delegates, and they are (obviously) right.

Obama lacks a majority of delegates, so the race is still in question, and Hillary continues to campaign. What's the issue ?


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:15 PM
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this is not how someone who's a professional politician acts

Been thinking the same thing since February.

35: I honestly think Clinton's people would see the post of VP as beneath their candidate.


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:15 PM
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Obama lacks a majority of delegates

Ummm, no...


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:16 PM
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Somewhere I saw Russert quoted as saying that her staff is laying the ground from 2012.

That's what Richard Cohen said today.


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:16 PM
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Props to the New York Times; they just posted an article on Clinton's own reasons for staying in. And I'm off to read it...


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:17 PM
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Obama lacks a majority of delegates, so the race is still in question, and Hillary continues to campaign. What's the issue ?

Come on dude, you know as well as the rest of us that Hillary basically got put away back in March.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:18 PM
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45: Um, yes. Sorry, it's just true.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:18 PM
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My thesis was wrong by a factor of 1000.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:18 PM
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Hillary basically got put away back in March.

Right. I don't see any contradiction between this and what I said. If the delegates decide that Obama will be the candidate, then Obama will be the candidate and Hillary will drop out. They haven't made that decision yet. When they do, I'll betcha Hillary drops out.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:20 PM
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With 43% reporting, he's ahead by 21 points in Oregon.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:20 PM
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47: That taught me nothing new. That said, I'd like to note that I don't believe she should drop out. I'm also not sure she should stop raising money, though I wish she'd give the kid back his bicycle. I just want her to stop making wild claims about being ahead in the popular vote and about being the choice of the white working class. That's all. Why she hasn't stopped doing that is still beyond me. I remain confused, in other words. You people have failed me.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:21 PM
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What Clinton is trying to do at this point is precisely what Obama is trying to do, which is to win the nomination. Almost certainly she will fail, but it doesn't make her evil for trying.

And Clinton has made more, and louder, noises about supporting Obama should he win the nomination than Obama has seen fit to do in a spirit of unity and reciprocity.

Some of these 2012 conspiracy theories strike me as more than a little bit nutty.


Posted by: Mary Catherine | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:21 PM
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Man. I love Obama, but I'm starting to wish that the convention would just nominate Chris Dodd already.


Posted by: Jackmormon | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:22 PM
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52: Yeah, but that's Portland and Eugene.


Posted by: Bave Dee | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:23 PM
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Advisers say that continuing her candidacy is partly a means to show her supporters -- especially young women -- that she is not a quitter and will not be pushed around.

We get it, Clinton. We young women are voting for Obama. No need to trouble yourself on our account.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:23 PM
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47: Mrs. Clinton's advisers also say that her popularity could lead Mr. Obama to fold some of her policy positions -- like universal health insurance -- into his platform

Wow, looks like the NYT finally hired Petey as a political writer.


Posted by: Po-Mo Polymath | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:23 PM
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49: Pledged or super? Because by the end of tonight he'll have the majority of the pledged delegates.

51: This doesn't answer my question in any way. Maybe it wasn't supposed ot. But it is a nifty tautology.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:23 PM
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Almost certainly she will fail, but it doesn't make her evil for trying.

It does if her methods involve kneecapping her party and/or the likely nominee.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:24 PM
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That taught me nothing new

Really? You knew that she thought she could still win, and that she's not worried about racial divisions?


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:24 PM
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Pledged or super?

The word I used was "delegates." That's becauase "delegates" decide the nominee. Come on, this isn't that confusing.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:26 PM
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54: I didn't say she was evil. I said, and I repeat, that she's not acting the way that one would expect of a professional politician. Her chances of winning the nomination have to stand at less than 1%. Still, I don't think she should drop out. If Obama is caught being fellated by zombie George Wallace the nomination is hers. But I wish she'd back off the wild claims that seem intended to wound the Party's presumptive nominee. If that makes me a conspiracy theorist, so be it.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:27 PM
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You knew that she thought she could still win, and that she's not worried about racial divisions?

More likely, that she and her advisors would like people to think that she thinks she can still win and that she's not worried about racial divisions?


Posted by: essear | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:27 PM
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61: Of course she thinks she can still win. Again, Obama can be killed or caught with the proverbial live boy/dead girl. As to the race angle, I'm unconvinced. But I absolutely believe that she thinks that sexism has been more of an issue in this race. I'm not even sure that she's wrong about that.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:29 PM
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The "something might happen to Obama" justification is weak, because even if she drops out and Obama is caught fellating a goat (that's how they do it in Kenya!), she'll be the nominee. She doesn't have to stay in for that.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:29 PM
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49: Since, Obama has the lead in both pledged and superdelegates, no, it's just not true. Perhaps you mean decisive majority, but since HRC has little prospect of erasing Obama's lead, figuring out why people are increasingly irritated with her for dragging out the party primary should not be rocket science.


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:30 PM
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Of course she thinks she can still win

Ok then, so you already thought that. That's a different explanation from "she wants to weaken Obama so that she can run in 2012," or "she's raising money to pay off campaign debts." But now I understand that your question is about how she stays in, rather than that she does.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:31 PM
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Seriously, I am. I'm just mystified. And there are smart people here who follow this stuff as carefully as I do.

She's running out the primaries. She wants to win, and something might happen. Her husband, after all, was famous as the comeback kid. As long as she isn't kneecapping Obama, I don't really see the problem.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:32 PM
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66: No, I don't think that's right. If she drops out, her professional staff finds new work, her volunteers move on, etc. There's a good reason to keep a campaign ramped up, in other words. But there's no good reason to keep lying about the race. At least none that I can see.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:32 PM
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It does if her methods involve kneecapping her party and/or the likely nominee.

Yeah, I guess it really would be evil of her to kneecap the party and shit. Except that she's not actually doing that at all! Unless you define "putting oneself forth as a viable alternative that millions of rank-and-file Democrats are actually voting for" as "kneecapping her party," of course.

Outside the Obama Bubble, a lot of Democratic voters are really angry about the way Clinton has been vilified for the very presumption of running for public office against The Presumptive. Obama supporters ignore or dismiss this anger at their party's peril, is what I think.


Posted by: Mary Catherine | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:35 PM
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As long as she isn't kneecapping Obama, I don't really see the problem.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, Tim, but I've said this same thing at least three times. But I think she is kneecapping him. And I'm curious if you think otherwise.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:35 PM
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63

"... Her chances of winning the nomination have to stand at less than 1%. ..."

Intrade has her at 6%.


Posted by: James B. Shearer | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:36 PM
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Also, Cala, if you're paying attention, I'm commenting from my new Eee. It's pretty great. Though, this just in: it isn't a Mac. And so therefore it sucks.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:36 PM
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Who is this hack on CNN saying Obama gave a Republican speech? A tax code that works is a Republican only idea?


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:37 PM
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71: t the way Clinton has been vilified for the very presumption of running for public office against The Presumptive.

Considering that she originally attempted to run as The Presumptive, I predict the violins will be small.


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:37 PM
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Some of these 2012 conspiracy theories strike me as more than a little bit nutty.

I'm sure our ways seem strange to many people, but in America we have politicians who seek power.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:38 PM
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Except that she's not actually doing that at all!

Like hell she isn't. Specifically, shit like talking about how she's the favored candidate of white people and how Obama's not Commander in Chief material like McCain is.


Posted by: gswift | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:38 PM
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71: Claiming to be ahead in the popular vote and the choice of working-class whites everywhere isn't kneecapping Obama? Honestly, I have no idea what to make of this line of argument. But then I remember that I'm the whirly-eyed one in the bubble.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:38 PM
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Perhaps you mean decisive majority

No, I mean an actual majority. If, after the majority of delegates come out in favor of Obama, Hillary stays in, then I think you'll have a gripe. If Hillary resumes favorably comparing McCain to Obama, then you'll have a gripe.

As it is, Obama supporters need to do what Obama does: wait until he actually wins to proclaim victory.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:38 PM
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Come on, MC, don't you start with the Obama Bubble nonsense. She isn't destroying the party, but every dollar that's spend intra-Dems at this point is a dollar not explaining that one of the Things Younger Than McCain is Obama's dead parents.

(Since when has Obama been the Presumptive, anyway? Let's see, Iowa was an upset, Clinton was running on name recognition... hmmm. Looks like he became the presumptive nominee once it was clear that her strategy depended on it being over on Super Tuesday, i.e., by leading. Yeah, Presumptive.)


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:39 PM
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74: I just ordered my eee! It should be here tomorrow! Then I will have mini Linux dissertating POWER!


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:40 PM
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80: Again, hard to know if you're talking to me. But as an Obama supporter let me just say one more time: I'm not declaring victory; I think Clinton should stay in the race; I just wish she'd stop lying about the numbers and race-baiting.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:41 PM
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82: You mean that you'll be able to blog from anywhere. Blog on your seekrit blog, of course. Also, count on a pretty serious adjustment before trying to compose new and complicated text. The delete key is hard to find, as is the shift key. Beyond that, other than not being a Mac, it's pretty damn cool.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:43 PM
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I'm not trying to pick a fight, Tim, but I've said this same thing at least three times.

Yeah, I saw that on preview, but I'd already written the comment, so....

And I'm curious if you think otherwise.

To be honest, I've stopped paying attention to her. I'll get irritated and angry if her attempts gain any real traction. But at this point, Obama's been all-but-anointed, and taking it away from him will cause a riot among the bloc of supporters the Democrats fear most: the people who will live long enough to vote in more than two more elections and the people generating so much cash for him. They can possibly win today with Clinton, or they can possibly win today and tomorrow and tomorrow with Obama.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:43 PM
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Sweet. It's been, what, three days without a Clinton/Obama fight around here? A welcome break from climate change and peak oil, I'll tell you what.


Posted by: Bave Dee | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:44 PM
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Bave got it right.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:44 PM
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Heh.


Posted by: teofilo | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:45 PM
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That was hilarious.


Posted by: Bave Dee | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:45 PM
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but in America we have politicians who seek power.

Indeed. But you also, apparently, have that City upon a Hill ideal of which I have heard rumours. Looks to me like Obama seeking power gets all spiritualized and idealized and shit, whilst all of the (justifiable and understandable) discomfort over the seeking of power that a presidential bid inevitably entails gets dumped onto Clinton.


Posted by: Mary Catherine | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:46 PM
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This is not the hilarity thread, boys. Shoo!


Posted by: Stanley | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:46 PM
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84: There's a thingy you can do to reverse the shift and the up key since pretty much everyone complains about the placement. And I do not have a blog!


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:48 PM
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Obama, you see, is the coming global shitstorm, while Clinton is the inevitable infirmities of age played out in an atomistic society. Both are covered with scars, each less plausible than the last.


Posted by: Bave Dee | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:48 PM
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a lot of Democratic voters are really angry about the way Clinton has been vilified for the very presumption of running for public office against The Presumptive.

OTOH, he's got, what, a sixteen point lead as favored candidate in national polls? So less and less angry every day. Which I thank her for, because I think her campaign has turned off people--for example, Latinos and Asians, I thought someone recently said, though I know there are others--who previously supported her by a lot.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:49 PM
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This still seems to me a sort of accurate characterization of Obama's post-March 4th strategy. Protect the lead and run it out.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:49 PM
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And I do not have a blog!

The punctuation says that you're lying.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:50 PM
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Cala blogs goats! At least that's what Kaus said.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:51 PM
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Time for me to go beddy-bye. I hereby deputize Mary Catherine to speak for me on this subject for the rest of the evening.

But one last point: The superdelegates can settle this any time they want to. That's their job, not Hillary's. And they are doing a good job. If they don't settle this by mid-June - or if Hillary resumes making favorable comparisons to McCain vs. Obama - then I'll say the superdelegates are fallinig down on the job.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:52 PM
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Gonna start a blog just to ban you, Ari.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:52 PM
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Looks to me like Obama seeking power gets all spiritualized and idealized and shit, whilst all of the (justifiable and understandable) discomfort over the seeking of power that a presidential bid inevitably entails gets dumped onto Clinton.

1. The war. You may have heard of it. A lot of us don't like her for that.
2. Obama's in the lead and, to the extent she has a kitchen sink strategy, she's harming greater interests for the sake of a small chance of increasing her own power. Rational for a politician to do, which is why we have to put penalties in place to prevent them from doing it. To wit, we have voters hate her. Everything seems to be working fine: she gets to run and we get to hate her to the extent she harms the party interests.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:53 PM
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I think this is the most minimalist housing ad I've seen.

|>


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:53 PM
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90: whilst all of the (justifiable and understandable) discomfort over the seeking of power that a presidential bid inevitably entails gets dumped onto Clinton.

I'm sure the campaign she chose to run could have nothing to do with that.


Posted by: DS | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:54 PM
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Yeah, but that's Portland and Eugene.

People are rumored to live elsewhere in this state, it's true. Actually, later reporting has closed the gap to 15 points, with a few eastern counties yet to weigh in; she won't come within 10, is my guess.

whilst all of the (justifiable and understandable) discomfort over the seeking of power that a presidential bid inevitably entails gets dumped onto Clinton

Partly because of the genuinely discomforting strategies she's adopted. In addition to those already mentioned, there's dismissing the caucus states as irrelevant and insisting on honoring the Michigan results even though an election with one name on the ballot is pretty much the gold standard for an undemocratic election.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:59 PM
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99: Why start one when you could just join one?


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 9:59 PM
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one name on the ballot

Poor Kucinich. And Gravel, and maybe Dodd, but he'd already dropped out. Not sure if anyone else was on there.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:01 PM
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My thesis was wrong by a factor of 1000.

That sucks, Cala. I hope you can get a fellowship or something to rewrite.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:02 PM
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Ha, ha.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:03 PM
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105: And I even like those guys! But you know what I mean.


Posted by: Jesus McQueen | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:04 PM
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Cala, please don't ever tell Ari the location of your blog. He'll ruin it the way he has ruined so many others. Plus he wouldn't read it. He would just look at these amusing caricatures of Gore Vidal and Susan Sontag.


Posted by: Walt Someguy | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:11 PM
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The New York Review of Blasting Caps is Cala's husband's blog, Walt.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:15 PM
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106, 107: Huh, I wondered if that's what that meant. That sucks, Cala. It's not too late.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:15 PM
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I assumed Cala had a thesis about primaries or something.


Posted by: ben w-lfs-n | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:20 PM
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Oh, maybe so.


Posted by: parsimon | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:26 PM
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Chris Dodd didn't have to go all the way to the end to see that he'd lost. Neither did John Edwards. Or Joe Biden. Or a host of others over the years.

I've no doubt that some people have vilified Clinton for running. I've no doubt that some people get off on eating dog shit. It's a big world, though, and as a matter of fact, I don't know anyone in either category.

I do hear people saying that it would be decent to give Clinton space to choose her own timing for a dignified exit. Which would be fine if she was actually going to use it, and less so if she's planning to use the space instead to try to rehabilitate her candidacy (by kneecapping her opponent).

Can someone remind us that male candidates -- like Ronald Reagan and Ted Kennedy, or Gary Hart -- got to go all the way to the convention, and no one called for them to drop out. First, there were plenty of calls, and second, hey who won those elections anyway?


Posted by: Nápi | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 10:47 PM
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hey who won those elections anyway?

Men?


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:27 PM
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Candidates!


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:29 PM
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You're both right! Male candidates who didn't quit!

Although I'd have accepted 'the opposition party to the candidate who took it to the convention' as an answer.


Posted by: Nápi | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:35 PM
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75: I was watching that same panel, and I swear they were having a contest for who could mouth the largest idiocy. It was soon after the comment you refer to that David Gergen talked about Sen. Clinton has finally found her movement, now that the white working class is coming out for her. Totally ignoring a): Hillary always had a movement made up largely of certain feminists who have not unreasonably decided that the goal of electing a woman in their lifetime is absolutely paramount and b): the white working class vote for doesn't seem very movement like, or really all that pro-her as opposed to interested in voting in the Democratic primary and against Barack Obama


Posted by: washerdreyer | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:42 PM
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Nice blog post by Timothy Egan that concisely demolishes the "working class is for Hillary" argument, and makes Timbot's favorite claim about the changing Democratic coalition.


Posted by: ogged | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:45 PM
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America wears Hillary Clinton like a blue satin sash.


Posted by: A White Bear | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:45 PM
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120: Wait for it, newest Terry McAuliffe metric: "You can drive from Boston to LA and not go through a state where Obama won."


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:49 PM
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That drive would be a lot easier with a gas tax holiday.


Posted by: eb | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:52 PM
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119: That is a good post. Thanks.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:55 PM
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120: I just spent a full minute looking at that map wondering when the Lake Michigan primary would take place. Walleye for Obama! I think it's time for bed.


Posted by: Ari | Link to this comment | 05-20-08 11:57 PM
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I absolutely believe that she thinks that sexism has been more of an issue in this race. I'm not even sure that she's wrong about that.

You know what? I decided today that this concern is bullshit. Not as in, being irritated by the sexist crap is bullshit, but as in, honestly? The only reason I think Clinton gives a shit about it is to use it to garner votes from outraged women who actually *do* give a shit. I mean, what, precisely, has she said or done during the entire campaign that's been actually feminist? As opposed to Obama's talking explicitly about race?

Bah. I am annoyed.


Posted by: bitchphd | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 12:29 AM
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ARG! Must second Cala way back at 57. Furthermore, just because some of the attacks on Senator Clinton have been sexist doesn't make HER any gold star feminist. And in my book, the position on DOMA alone makes her less feminist than Obama. [do not all women count, Hillary?) so there.
--grumble


Posted by: lesbianacademic | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 12:36 AM
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Bitch nails it at 125. Completely. While I was typing previous message.


Posted by: lesbianacademic | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 12:37 AM
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Still worried about what Hillary might pull off. Then again, it's probably just that, being a minority, I'm predisposed to expecting white people will get away with whatever it is they're trying to pull off.

A crazy thought: what if the reason she's staying in is that she really is someone like them, in places like those.


Posted by: Melvin | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 1:01 AM
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||

WBUR is reporting that Ted Keennedy's seizure was caused by a malignant brain tumour. He's being treated at Mass General, but I hope he can get any surgery done by Pet/er Bla/ck who used to be chief at Brigham and Women's. He says that he has no plans to retire.

|>


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 4:16 AM
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129 was I


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 4:44 AM
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"You can drive from Boston to LA and not go through a state where Obama won."

That won't work. You can do the same for Obama if you just ferry your car up the Mississipi past a tiny little bit of Arkansas. Obama wouldn't want you to waste the gas, though.


Posted by: mcmc | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 6:08 AM
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"You can drive from Boston to LA and not go through a state where Obama won."

Wow. That has the rare distinction of being even more idiotic than the argument about how Bush crushed Gore in 2000 because of the number of counties and/or square miles of territory where he had an electoral majority.

Next up: "Measured by gross state product, the states Hillary won account for 85% of US economic output."


Posted by: KR | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 6:37 AM
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131: Q: How is a ferry like a caucus?

A: They're both unAmerican.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 6:38 AM
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You can do the same for Obama if you just ferry your car up the Mississipi past a tiny little bit of Arkansas. Obama wouldn't want you to waste the gas, though.

They could start in the east so that they could float downriver. Like on a raft. And it could be Obama and Edwards, plus a pair of hucksters pretending to be European royalty, getting into madcap adventures in the towns along the shore.


Posted by: KR | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 6:41 AM
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132: I Worded that poorly with the "wait for it", that was just my semi-tongue-in-cheek prediction. (But I expect some pundit or campaign flack somewhere to utter or write it.)


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 6:41 AM
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132: But then what's wrong with 1 acre/1 vote? It's catchy! I expect to see it in a John Roberts opinion sometime during my lifetime.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 6:52 AM
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136: Roberts is no activist judge. He will insist that votes retain their traditional denomination in dollars.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:04 AM
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But then what's wrong with 1 acre/1 vote?

Too anachronistic. Land ownership is no longer the primary vehicle for asset accumulation. "One-dollar, one-vote"* is more appropriate for the modern age.

The only reason the Heritage Foundation hasn't proposed it yet is that they haven't figured out the details of the policy, specifically, the text of the regulations that will disenfranchise the dollars of Warren Buffet, the Google guys, the major charitable foundations, and the public employee pension funds of the blue states.

Once they get that figured out, expect to see Bill Kristol arguing in the NYT that the Founding Fathers always intended for the franchise to be a privilege of property-owners, and the proposed "Job Creators' Rewards Votes" are the natural outgrowth of that fundamental Constitutional principle.

*To be perfectly safe, the franchise should probably be denominated in Special Drawing Rights or some other non-dollare equivalent, so that the wealthy can store their wealth in non-depreciating foreign currencies.


Posted by: Knecht Ruprecht | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:05 AM
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137: I claim mitigated pwnage due to additional value add in 138!


Posted by: Knecht Ruprecht | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:06 AM
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134: So great. And on land they could use solar/hybrid Zipcars.

135: (But I expect some pundit or campaign flack somewhere to utter or write it.)

But we have the answer ready!


Posted by: mcmc | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:18 AM
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134.---I've been sitting here trying to figure out some way this could be turned into a competitive event to replace our current primary system.


Posted by: Jackmormon | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:43 AM
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Why does nobody want to talk about Kennedy's malignant brain tumour?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:46 AM
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they just posted an article on Clinton's own reasons for staying in. And I'm off to read it...

OK, Wally, come back with some candy.


Posted by: asl | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:48 AM
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140: I can see the campaign stunts now:

Hillary - they have the General Lee drive coast-to-coast through "Clinton" states, stopping at every white trash bar and diner along the way.

Obama - A recumbent bicycle rally from Seattle to St. Louis (starting from the west, KR you forgot that the Mississippi flows south after the equinox), Maybe the Huck Finn thing (I think Kerry windsurfing down the river is right out). And then a mass "freedom march" (or bus ride) from Mississippi up to DC.

McCain - Simultaneous golf cart rallies in Boca Raton and Scottsdale.


Posted by: JP Stormcrow | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:49 AM
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I totally pwned Terry on that, I said back before the Penn. primary that if she won it Hillary would have a lock on the "connecting the oceans" metric since she would win WV and KY. I can't get google to find my comment.
98- "The superdelegates can settle this any time they want to"
They can't though, but Hillary's logic. She's said delegate votes aren't locked until they're cast on the floor of the convention- even if Obama had enough superdelegates publicly declare for him that he'd win a convention vote that day, Hillary has suggested she'll keep going to August with the hopes of changing their minds.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 7:53 AM
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I think Kerry windsurfing down the river is right out

As so often happens, the Onion got there first.

FWIW, when Clinton-Gore went on their post-convention bus tour of the Midwest, that was the first moment when I became confident that the Democrats were going to retake the White House. The symbolism and practicality of it were both so perfect.


Posted by: Knecht Ruprecht | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:05 AM
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Why does nobody want to talk about Kennedy's malignant brain tumour?

If I wanted to do something depressing, BG, I would be concentrating on my work.


Posted by: Knecht Ruprecht | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:06 AM
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142: because it's depressing?

Anyhoo he's getting out today.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:11 AM
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Why does nobody want to talk about Kennedy's malignant brain tumour?

Because it makes me sad.


Posted by: strasmangelo jones | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:12 AM
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145: Not that I necessarily trust the NYT - or Hillary for that matter - but here's the latest word on her potential departure:

Rebuffing associates who have suggested that she end her candidacy, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has made it clear to her camp in recent days that she will stay in the race until June

Seems like you just have to wait a couple more weeks and you'll be rid of Hillary - until Obama picks her as running mate.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:12 AM
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142 i tried yesterday and got some insults which were pretty painful and no apologies whatsoever
so, i won't


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:13 AM
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until Obama picks her as running mate.

No chance.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:14 AM
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151: but I said you'd delivered a smackdown!

In our idiom, that is one of the highest compliments one can give, up there with "opened a can of whoop-ass" or "took it to the paint"!


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:16 AM
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Seems like you just have to wait a couple more weeks and you'll be rid of Hillary - until Obama picks her as running mate.

I doubt it. If what we're seeing is two rival coalitions trying to control the direction of the party, the last thing either of them would need is the other tugging the other direction.

Why does nobody want to talk about Kennedy's malignant brain tumour?

Nothing to say. It sucks. He is as old as McCain, though, so I guess he's at the age where shit just starts breaking.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:17 AM
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oh, really?
i thought you were mocking me..
thanks


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:21 AM
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I'd love, love, love to see Mark Penn, Terry McAuliffe, James Carville, and a dozen other Clinton / DLC hacks shown the door forever. Perhaps we can even get video of them being escorted out of the building by scary looking security guards.

I wonder if that batch of Clintonistas will turn out to be as treacherous and nasty as Dick Morris and George Stephanopolous and some of the other Clinton hacks. Mark Penn already has, come to think of it.

The bad news is that Patty Solis Doyle has already signed on with Obama.


Posted by: John Emerson | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:30 AM
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It seems clear to me why Clinton is staying in the race: for the good of the Democratic Party.

This is the first time in 20 years that a primary race has continued beyond Super Tuesday. The first time in 20 years that primary voters in half the states have voted out of something other than duty or ritual. This election has also seen votes for the losing Democratic candidate surpass votes for the winning candidate on the Republican side in several states. Sure, that's partly because Republicans suck, but that's been true for years, so it seems very likely to me that the competition has something to do with it.

What if, say, Obama had won New Hampshire and Clinton had dropped out after Super Tuesday? It would be harder to sell a message of a need to fight when you're the presumptive nominee. Running as an outsider is just a bit less credible when one of the two major parties has already picked you. And when scandals arose, like the Rev. Wright stuff, most of the criticism of Obama for that would have come from McCain, who is much better positioned to tap into bigotry than a woman named Clinton. Thanks, Clinton, for keeping the race going.


Posted by: Cyrus | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:31 AM
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Also, fuck Joe Lieberman. Sideways. With a pitchfork.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:31 AM
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i tried yesterday and got some insults which were pretty painful and no apologies whatsoever

read, dear girl, I apologize for insulting you.

Without detracting from the sincerity of my apology, let me remind you that gentle poking of fun at other commenters (and sometimes not-so-gentle poking of fun) is standard procedure in this community. I sense that people treat you with kid gloves (that's a metaphor: it means "exceptionally gently") as it is*, so your expectations might need to be adjusted a little.

* For example, I myself wrote a comment about how Kennedy should have changed his name to Khenbish after RFK's assassination to fool the evil spirits, but I decided it would be in excessively bad taste and also a little bit mean to you, so I refrained from posting it.


Posted by: KR | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:32 AM
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Yeah I meant to say that I think I've insulted you in the past. Don't worry! It's all in good fun! Or if not, feel free to think of me as an asshole! I won't be offended? How would an asshole get offended? It's an orifice, it doesn't have feelings.


Posted by: Sifu Tweety | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:33 AM
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I still haven't quite forgiven Gore for putting that little bridgetroll on the ticket in 2000.


Posted by: apostropher | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:33 AM
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I still haven't quite forgiven Gore for putting that little bridgetroll on the ticket in 2000.

I blame (a) pollsters, and (b) whichever company built the facial expressions system for Gore 1.4.


Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:37 AM
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i tried yesterday and got some insults which were pretty painful and no apologies whatsoever

read, dear girl, I apologize for insulting you.

Without detracting from the sincerity of my apology, let me remind you that gentle poking of fun at other commenters (and sometimes not-so-gentle poking of fun) is standard procedure in this community. I sense that people treat you with kid gloves (that's a metaphor: it means "exceptionally gently") as it is*, so your expectations might need to be adjusted a little.

* For example, I myself wrote a comment about how Kennedy should have changed his name to Khenbish after RFK's assassination to fool the evil spirits, but I decided it would be in excessively bad taste and also a little bit mean to you, so I refrained from posting it.


Posted by: KR | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:40 AM
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Arrggh. Sorry for the double post.

It's an orifice, it doesn't have feelings.

Try saying that after a trip to Buttplugs of Enormous Size.


Posted by: KR | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:41 AM
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ok, KR, accepted
though i don't need any kid gloves or i woudn't feel it's mean to me if you mentioned our customs in some or other relation, why i would (though of course depends on the context)
i'm glad my mom's coworker's name made into wikipedia
i'm a borjigin on my mother's side, and an ukhaasai buriad on my father's


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:49 AM
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Incidentally, Read, I was reading that there's some horrible looking epidemic of boils raging in Ulaanbataar. I hope nobody close to you is affected.


Posted by: OneFatEnglishman | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:54 AM
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forgot to add, sorry to be that touchy


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:54 AM
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yeah, there is an epidemic of enterovirus going on, like 900 children were infected
so the schools are quarantined now and entered the summer break
my sister operates a daycare, so she took her summer vacation and went to the countryside already, i miss my niece, haven't talked to them almost a week


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 8:58 AM
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in comparison, in China 25000 were infected and 45 died and there is no cure for it they say
HFMD - hand, foot and mouth disease,
usually it's a mild disease, that particular strain EV71 maybe is serious
anti-chinese sentiments are now like ravaging, coz the infection is believed to come from there
i read some news discussions, and people even say awful things about the earthquake
that it's curse due to their hadnling of Tibetan uprisings and Dalai lama etc
though reasonable people say that natural disasters could occur everywhere and whenever
and of course it's human to grieve over the victims and offer our condolescences


Posted by: read | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 9:21 AM
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though reasonable people say that natural disasters could occur everywhere and whenever

Everyone knows that natural disasters are a sign that the Emperor has forfeited the mandate of heaven!

In all seriousness, the response of the Chinese government to the earthquake leads me to think that they have really thought through the link between disaster preparedness and political legitimacy, and decided that they cannot afford to let a Chernobyl or Katrina-style fiasco happen on their watch.


Posted by: Knecht Ruprecht | Link to this comment | 05-21-08 9:28 AM
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