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Did I Miss Something That Should Have Told Me To Expect This?

Posted by LizardBreath
on 01.03.20

We're assassinating Iranian officials out of the blue now? Anyone who understands this should explain what's going on to me in comments.

On a personal note, I am retrospectively still so angry at everyone who supported the Iraq War, and everyone who took the arguments for the Iraq War seriously as if they were more than bloodthirsty dishonest nonsense.


 

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Mass Shooting Bacon Number

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 01.02.20

At some point, a critical mass of people will have a semi-personal connection to a public shooting - say, three degrees or less. (I count two at the moment. A friend's kid attended a school with a shooting, and a different friend is going to a funeral for the recent Fort Worth church shooting.)

It reminds me of how people say that the tipping point for mainstream gay rights acceptance came when a critical number of gay people came out of the closet and enough previously-complacent people were surprised by this but not angered. At some point, more than half the country will have a story about being loosely connected to a public shooting.

It's really not analogous to LBGTQ rights in any sense. For one thing, I think there's already widespread agreement on the left and right that public shootings are a problem.* There's just a deep divide on the appropriate solution, with the goddamn NRA-backed psychopaths perpetrating their egregrious bullshit about armed good guys and pushing for more armed teachers and so on. That's the breakdown in progress and where the epistemology involved becomes so dysfunctional that you can't interact with someone who believes it.

So, we may have already reached the tipping point of loosely-held personal connections to public shootings, and it just doesn't affect anything.

*The only people that disagree with this are smirking statistical types who want to be smarter than thou in a freakonomics sense. TECHNICALLY we should be more scared of pools and asthma than guns, so why not let the NRA arm all schoolchildren?


 

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Guest Post - Happy New Year!

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 01.01.20

Chossy Marachter writes: I was going to try to do a silver linings 2019 thing. Sudan looks like possibly not descending into (a different) nightmare. Otherwise not great. So:

U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York (EDNY) unsealed an indictment against Genaro Garcia Luna, the former secretary of public security of Mexico, charging him with three different narcotrafficking conspiracy counts
[...]
That same witness told the jury that he delivered bribes to others, including a $100 million bribe to former Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.
[...]
In another case out of EDNY, on Sept. 29, a federal judge sentenced Edgar Veytia, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of Nayarit, to 20 years in prison for participating in an extensive narcotrafficking conspiracy.
[...]
a former Honduran congressman was convicted by a federal jury in the Southern District of New York (SDNY) on four counts relating to a conspiracy to import cocaine into the United States.
[...]
Hernández is the brother of the current president of Honduras--Juan Orlando Hernández.
Bonus!
Evil Corp allegedly acts as a business, complete with a brick-and-mortar office in Moscow
Where else?

Heebie's take: why am I drawing a blank?

I think some of the best parts have been the heroic way that people respond and rise up to fight injustice. I may be horrified at wide parts of the country and world, but it is not a trivial-sized group of people that feel called to action to fight back.


 

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I'm already tired of 2020 Vision puns.

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 12.31.19

I gained a few pounds over the holidays and now my exercise pants are doing the sausage thing where they roll down and my undershirt rolls up, when I'm at the gym. Happy New Year.

1. I suppose I should locate last year's prediction thread? Here it is. I suppose everything should be both scaled for a new year and a new decade? Here's the post welcoming 2010.

Mine:

My bet is that by next December, Warren, Harris, and Beto seem like the frontrunners. Julian Castro, Bernie, and Sherrod Brown all will be a bit sidelined. I can't remember who else I should be considering.
Brexit, brexit, brexit.
Natural disasters are impossible to predict, but predictable.
Nothing significant will happen on gerrymandering, shoring up election security and voting rights, or the environment.

Well, I was wrong on the primary season. The rest was so milquetoast as to be unbreakable.

2. In 2010, we discussed the most Aughtie song of the Aughts, and so in that light, what's the most Teeny song of the Teens?

Mine:
This was the decade when I dropped out of pop culture, unfortunately. I miss it and look forward to finding out what the kids are listening to these days. I have no answer for this question.

3. Predictions?

Mine for 2020:
- I'm going to wish for a pony and say we'll have President Warren this time next year. But an election season with Warren v Trump will be insanely nerve-wracking. There is no candidate who won't be nerve-wracking, of course.
- This next year will be the worst and I can't say enough how much I'm dreading election season. I legitimately have trouble letting myself explore the possibility that Trump could be re-elected.
- A recession will hold off despite all possible predictors saying it should have crashed down on Trump's head, and then President Warren will get blamed when it all crashes down during Trump's lame duck weeks.
- Racial violence will escalate
- I'm having trouble thinking of other domains to make predictions in. Brexit? Sports?

Mine for 2030:

- what a stupid thing to try to ascertain.


4. What was your favorite year of the Teens?

Mine: I hate questions like this that ask you to summarize over a nonsensically disparate set of events and then rank as if it were meaningful. But I'll say that my big years, on a personal level, were 2014, when our family became complete, and 2018, when I turned 40, felt complete with all my medical surgeries and tattoos, and my extended family was all together for the last time.


 

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And on a personal note,

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 12.30.19

Well, now two Geebies are officially ADHD.

I am not a person who feels sad about diagnoses one bit. To me, the situation existed whether or not it was diagnosed, and a diagnosis opens doors up. So I am not upset by this most recent development. It has materialized quite clearly over the fall semester, and I wouldn't say I was upset by it so much as just tired all the time.

I think when we get a good handle on Rascal's ADHD, the way we currently have with Pokey, we will officially have rounded the corner out of the most tiring stage of parenting and will be in calmer years. I've got senioritis with the tantalizing prospect that soon, maybe, none of our children will act like drunk monkeys.


 

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