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Prognostication

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.29.22

So do you think this Manchin-Schumer bill will actually come to pass?


 

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Guest Post: Volcanoes

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.28.22

Mossy Character writes: Science.

The authorities of SVG were alerted to this increase in volcanic activity. The alert level was raised to Red on 8 April at 18:00 UTC triggering the evacuation of ~16,000 persons from the Red and Orange Zones, prior to the start of explosive activity on 9 April at 12:41 UTC, with no reported serious injuries or loss of life.
[...]
The Volcano Ready Community Project (VRCP) led by SRC in collaboration with NEMO, launched in April 2018 and completed in April 2021, targeted twelve northernmost communities of St. Vincent in the Red and Orange hazard zones of the most recent volcanic hazard map7. The VRCP, enabled community plans to be drafted and integrated into the national response mechanisms prior to the 2020-2021 eruption.

Heebie's take: Getting people to evacuate when the threat doesn't seem imminent is incredibly hard. I imagine it depends on 1. how recent their memory of the potential loss of life is, and 2. how credible you seem, and I further imagine that you basically get one shot to prove 2. And furthermore, timing is important - people can't afford to stay evacuated for more than a few days before the proof of concept materializes. So good job to these scientists!

On the other hand, I'm much closer to hurricanes than fires. Getting people to evacuate for a hurricane is incredibly hard, but I bet people are more readily spooked by fires.


 

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Slavery

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.27.22

Being enslaved is one of those things that we both ought to contemplate and try to imagine, and that we can't truly imagine unless we've experienced it, but you still have an obligation to do your best to understand it. Obviously the physical violence and loss of freedoms, and loss of family and loved ones are the most salient things we try to imagine. (Sorry. It's really hard to write an opening paragraph on slavery. Since the dawn of time...)

Hear me out though: one thing I occasionally think about though is the special agony it must have been to be enslaved, when the slave-owner was obviously dumber than you. Violence aside, it's awful to have a dumb boss, but then layer the violence back in. And then I think about the populations that have inherited the legacy of each group, slave-owners and slaves, and I think about how often that must have happened.

There is a couple that lives a few miles outside Heebieville, and their home was recently raided by the FBI in conjunction with 1/6, and they did the whole "out on my porch with my AR-15, in my skivvies" greeting to the FBI. (The local article was grotesquely sympathetic.) I imagine that many slaves were sane, sensible people who were owned by people like those dumbass loons, and that itself is its own truly insane level of hell.


 

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Feet

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.26.22

I think I have a Morton's Neuroma, ie a bit of nerve pain in the ball of my left foot, radiating out to my middle toes. I haven't quite overcome the inertia to do something about it. I've just been hoping it would go away on its own.

The thing about hoping things go away on their own is that sometimes it really works! But I'm becoming less convinced that this is one of those times.


 

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Redlining in the new millenium

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.25.22

This is very depressing. A HOA in Denton, Texas, outlaws Section 8 housing whatsoever:

The wave of anti-Section 8 sentiment peaked in June, when the Providence Homeowners Association's board passed a rule effectively banning Section 8 renters from living in the neighborhood -- a move that will displace more than 150 families from the majority-white enclave.

Apparently Texas is one of the few states that already allows landlords to choose to not accept Section 8 vouchers, so that's already horrible.

Section 8 tenants have to leave Providence when their current leases end, according to the new rule. The homeowners association and the town are legally separate entities but share much of the same territory. That means within a year, an entire Texas town will mostly be off limits to voucher holders.

But then I find this part a little more complex:

The Section 8 ban is part of a broader package of rules passed by the HOA board aimed at discouraging real estate investors from buying homes in the neighborhood and turning them into rentals.

...

Last year, Texas was the top target in the nation for investors. Home purchases made by investors accounted for 28% of all home purchases in the state in 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors -- a higher percentage than in any other state. In Denton County, where Providence Village is, that figure was 39%.
Under the new rules, a new homeowner must live in their home for two years before they can rent it to a tenant -- and a lease has to last longer than 90 days. A landlord can own only one rental home at a time.
Jenny Hersey, a mortgage underwriter who moved to Providence Village in 2008, supported the rules package out of worry that investor activity would make the neighborhood unaffordable, she said.

As far as I can tell, there's absolutely no reason why the Section 8 ban would need to be in here except for racism and classism. That said, I'm sympathetic with the effort to pass the non-Section 8 ban parts. The out-of-state investor problem exacerbates a housing shortage.

But there's this thing where towns mush together the problem of out-of-state investors with the idea of homes being rented. People really hate detached single-family houses being rented as opposed to owner-occupied. Mostly the reasons they hate the renters amount to code-enforcement problems. I can't figure out why cities can't get a handle on code-enforcement. Isn't this a source of income, to fine the landlords for not maintaining their properties?

I'm thinking that the non-Section 8 parts are still also a net-bad policy, but I'm sympathetic to the underlying problem. (Which, to be clear, has NOTHING to do with banning Section 8 vouchers.)



 

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Minivet in NYC Monday

Posted by LizardBreath
on 07.25.22

Who's up for meeting at Tiki Chick on 85th and Amsterdam again? Say, 5pm on 7/25, or time and place to be negotiated in the comments.

Update: The People of the Blog have cried out for a schedule change -- it's now 6:30, still at Tiki Chick.


 

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