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Weekend Longread

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.25.20

Connecting with voters is complicated. Many parts of this are smart:

[T]he people who work in campaigns tend to be highly ideologically motivated and thus, super-prone to convincing themselves to do things that are strategically dumb. Nothing that I tell people -- or that my team [at Civis] told people -- is actually that smart. You know, we'd do all this math, and some of it's pretty cool, but at a high level, what we're saying is: "You should put your money in cheap media markets in close states close to the election, and you should talk about popular issues, and not talk about unpopular issues." And we'd use machine learning to operationalize that at scale.

A lot of what he talks about is how uninformed voters have ideologically inconsistent views, and the candidate needs to connect on what is the most salient issue with the voter. Therefore it doesn't really matter that Obama and Clinton are, voting-wise, indistinguishable, or that Trump and Romney are as well, because the most salient connection point of Clinton and Obama with voters differed, and the same of Trump and Romney.

But he's also very practical about courting racist voters in a way that makes me uncomfortable.


Via one of you at the other place


 

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Semi-Weekly Check Ins, Reassurances, and Concerns, 7/24

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.24.20

This is intended to be our system for checking in on imaginary friends, so that we know whether or not to be concerned if you go offline for a while.

Episode 36.


 

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A thing which I would only say here

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.24.20

There's a meme, "All mothers were summoned when he called out to his mama," referring to George Floyd's words as he was being killed. The meme really turns my stomach and makes me uncomfortable in a white-savior way. I somehow think that if I were his mother, I'd be repulsed and sickened by the idea that all these women were summoned as mothers instead of as people, as if they were all rising to share my role with me. I am not his mother in any sense.

Portland Wall of Moms, on the other hand, is brilliant, (as discussed in the comments), as it weaponizes the blandness and sanctimoniousness of suburban soccer moms. That, I would sign right up for. (And did - there's an Austin FB group.)


 

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Portland spreading

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.23.20

I don't know what to post about besides federal agents descending on more cities, and I don't know what to say about it, either. Please let November be a landslide win.


 

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Semi-Weekly Check Ins, Reassurances, and Concerns, 7/21

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.21.20

This is intended to be our system for checking in on imaginary friends, so that we know whether or not to be concerned if you go offline for a while.

Episode 35.


 

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Guest Post - a little nightmare to start the week

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.21.20

Nworbie writes: Suppose the Republican leadership watches that Chris Wallace interview and realises that now the Fox News audience can see what has been obvious to everyone else for years. And then they have to make a choice. Either invoke the 25th amendment or go into an election led by a gibbering figurehead who can't even conceal his own dementia from himself any longer. So they pull the trigger and go into the election with Pence running on a pure anti-Biden, anti-Democrat platform. Is there still time for this? Is it constitutionally possible?

Heebie's take: So is this interview bizarre enough to stand out from other things he does? (And should we talk about how he is deploying federal agents to Portland and maybe other places? here is a jokey piece from October 2016 which attempts to quantify whether or not Trump is actually fascist, and he scored a 26 out of 44 Benitos. You can't necessarily fault the author for failing to predict how the next four years would go, but the light tone certainly doesn't age well.)


 

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Guest Post: Draining the Dregs of Willpower

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.20.20

Lw writes: So, the idea that human ego, (or strength of will as applied to self-control) is a finite resource that can be depleted seems like it has some explanatory power, good for common sense thinking about lots of human behavior.

Why do People Behave Immorally When Drunk? (From metafilter, thread has nice discussion, I have lost my password)

This nice overview/criticism of ego depletion papers is cited there.

I like empirical thinking, a lot, it's a consolation and a useful guide. The big difficulty I have when thinking about whether and how to apply social psychology research to life is uncertainty-- a salient feature of most of what I do (and what I see others doing) is that one doesn't know key situational facts when acting. In the hope of reproducibility and identifying separable aspects of human activity to study, both experiments and their application don't deal with this-- a situation whose parameters are known to the participants (eg watching a video while ignoring words appearing onscreen and writing essays without using certain letters), or maybe temporally limited (please interact with strangers for a few days) is the usual setting.

Situations like that seem pretty removed from most decisionmaking to me-- common questions I have in interpersonal interactions are "Is this person delusional/misinformed/lying ?" "How likely is this act to trigger complicated and bad consequences?", usually there is no answer in life, I go by hunches and crude generalizations of (my weird) past experiences. But the more I pay attention to a situation and to my actions, the more prominent in my thinking is the aspect that I don't see all the context that's relevant to acting. Seems to me both an extremely common property of human interaction, and very difficult to approach analytically, cripplingly incorrect to ignore it.

Heebie's take: 1. It's 5 am and we're getting on the road.
2. I haven't had a chance to read the links above, but I'm intrigued. Looking forward to thumbing through from the road.
3. From the cursory glance at the MeFi thread, I'd dispute this:

Perhaps I should defer to moral philosopher and noted alcoholic Jim Gaffigan. "No-one has ever done a shot and then done something they're proud of..."

Isn't it a thing from the movies to take a shot of courage to gird oneself, and then go face the noble task at hand? I suppose the point there is that the decision was made during sobriety, and then the execution required a little bit of superego suppression.

To be fair, I'm trying to remember any occasion where I've taken a shot, in order to screw my courage to the sticking place for some moral act, and I'm coming up empty. The best I can say is that maybe 2-3 times a year, I realize that I'm being so tense and cranky that if I drink a beer, I'll be a better parent and spouse. (It does work. Then I get a headache an hour later.)


 

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