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Partisanship in Cities

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 02.28.20

Segregation of cities by political party. Clearly this intersects with race and racial segregation in complex ways. And clearly there's not a one-way cause. I can imagine that in some cases, a person moves to a setting which is a mismatch with their political beliefs, and over time they soften to align with those around them. And in other cases, someone is a mismatch politically with those around them, and they move in order live somewhere where they're more aligned politically with those around them.

The other thing that's complicated is that 30 years ago, homogeneity of political beliefs wouldn't be as correlated with homogeneity of partisanship, if that makes sense. In other words, a small town with lockstep beliefs might have voted all over the place in terms of partisanship, because Southern Democrats were in the process of realigning with Republicans. But the underlying community was as homogeneous politically as they would be today, as a solid ruby red locale, in terms of their positions on political issues.

So I'm not convinced that there is more or less sorting in terms of homogeneity of beliefs, today, and that it's not just an artifact of the underlying reorganization of which groups comprise which parties.



 

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COVID-19

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 02.27.20

I feel like I'm hearing two things simultaneously:

1. It's about to spread everywhere, and it's fairly bad and fairly contagious

2. It's not as bad as the 'flu.

Which leads me to conclude two things:

1. We're basically going to have a second 'flu season this year

2. We are so familiar with the 'flu that we don't appreciate the human toll, the cost, and the amount of infrastructure dedicated to it yearly, and that getting those responses up and running to this second virus is no small feat.



 

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Guest Post - Yaks

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 02.26.20

Charry Mossy writes: Arunachal Pradesh:

"Earlier we used to embark on the upward journey in late May or early June. But now you can't do that," Tsering says. "The yaks start feeling uncomfortable as early as late February because of the heat. The summer has extended and the temperature has risen."
[...]
The problem of inbreeding has also affected the Brokpa yak herds. They face the same fate that befell the Kyrgyz and Wakhi yak herds in the 1950s after the border between Afghanistan and China in the Wakhan Corridor was closed, leaving no possibility for Wakhi and Kyrgyz herders to bring in new breeding stock.
Sikkim. Yaks make me smile. Leeches do not.

Heebie's take: It really is important to document this kind of thing, and I appreciate Mossy's writing them up and sending them in. But godDAMN it causes existential despair.



 

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Nonvoters

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 02.24.20

Chris Y asks: Is it me or is this deeply depressing?

Heebie answers: It's not you.

The study confirms that nonvoters as a whole are fairly reflective of the broader electorate in terms of political preferences. If they were to all vote in November, 33 percent say they would support Democrats, 30 percent Republicans and 18 percent a third-party candidate. More surprisingly perhaps, and potentially more consequential for November, these numbers gently tilt in the opposite direction in many battleground states, with nonvoters choosing Trump over the as-yet-undetermined Democratic nominee 36%-28% in Pennsylvania, 34%-25% in Arizona and 30%-29% in New Hampshire. Wisconsin and Michigan mirror the national average, favoring the Democrat 33%-31% and 32%-31%, respectively, while in Georgia the margin is 34%-29%. This data challenges many long-standing assumptions of political experts.

It makes me so angry that such a tiny slice of certain swing states control the fate of the nation. (But as noted last week, that's because being angry at Republicans is too big and futile. Really, the anger should just be on them.)

Anyway, I've been attached to the GOTV narrative of how to win for a while, and so this study makes me cringe.



 

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Mc-Didn't-Govern

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 02.23.20

So, I'm wrapping my head around a Bernie nomination, and feeling pretty good about it. I am expecting a growing chorus of people worrying that it will be McGovern all over again.

What are the most important differences between 1972 and 2020 that would be my talking points, when someone worries in my vicinity about us McGoverning up this election?



 

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