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Forecasts

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.11.20

I have a lot of unanswerable questions about the fall. Will the school-induced surge of surges be enough to grant the political will for locking down entire regions again? Would we (regional "we") be any wiser about re-opening if it came to that? Should my family make every attempt to lockdown for the first nine weeks of the semester, until the trends reveal themselves? Which of the six different kinds of classrooms that we would be exposed to are the most dangerous, and which are the safest, differing primarily on age of students? College students don't act like they're at a bar, in the classroom, but they're the most likely to do so by night. Five year olds kind of do act like they're in a bar, in a classroom, but they're probably sequestered by night. High school students are most likely to lick a doorknob for giggles. There are no answers yet, but I'll take your guesses. (I have to say, I'm feeling a modicum of relief that the national conversation has finally FINALLY turned to schools. It has felt like the Everything Is Fine dog for the past five months. At least the damn dog is finally running in panicked circles.)

ANYWAY: this one particular angle - the fear of flu and COVID convergence - it seems to me that it's a wee bit overblown, insofar as:

1. The inflated flu numbers (here's a complaint from maybe 2005 about it! With interesting numbers, in my opinion.)

2. The social distancing, handwashing, and mask wearing that we're all implementing. Isn't it overwhelmingly likely that these things are a major bummer for the poor flu virus? How is the flu even going to gain any traction this year? This makes it sound like the current 2020 flu season in the Southern Hemisphere should be well-underway by now, but this year is almost nonexistent. OTOH I have no idea what I'm talking about.


 

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Semi-Weekly Check Ins, Reassurances, and Concerns, 7/10

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.10.20

This is intended to be our system for checking in on imaginary friends, so that we know whether or not to be concerned if you go offline for a while.

Episode 32.


 

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Guest Post - Open Debate

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.10.20

NickS writes: This week there have been a number of responses to an open letter published by Harper's about "Justice And Open Debate"

The free exchange of information and ideas, the lifeblood of a liberal society, is daily becoming more constricted. While we have come to expect this on the radical right, censoriousness is also spreading more widely in our culture: an intolerance of opposing views, a vogue for public shaming and ostracism, and the tendency to dissolve complex policy issues in a blinding moral certainty. We uphold the value of robust and even caustic counter-speech from all quarters. But it is now all too common to hear calls for swift and severe retribution in response to perceived transgressions of speech and thought. . . . .

This has attracted a number of responses, mostly on twitter, which has been fascinating but somewhat difficult for me to follow, so I wanted to suggest a thread to discuss it and also capture interesting reactions.

Here are the ones that have particularly caught my attentionr:

John Holbo:

Ideally, the world contains no trolls, bots, bad faith actors - or few enough they can be dealt with retail not wholesale in the Marketplace of Ideas. In a world in which everyone were exchanging more or less in open-faced good faith, this rule would be good. 3/

In our actual world, however, it is not good. No, not really, sadly. Hence a dilemma. 4/

Emily Vanderwerff:

"I sent a version of this [response to Matthew Yglesias signing the open letter] to the editors of Vox. (I have redacted some bits that are internal to Vox and shouldn't be aired publicly.)

Popehat

"The problem of the preferred first speaker" is the tendency to impose norms of civility, openness, productiveness, and dialogue-encouraging on a RESPONSE to expression that we do not impose on the expression itself.

Kieran Healy:

Ironically, I think what a lot of the signatories are pining for is a world where serious conversations can happen in context-preserving ways with trusted interlocutors, well-established conventions participation and bounded disagreement, and barriers preventing public cascades.

Small magazines are like that. Seminars are like that. Universities and disciplines are often like that. Perhaps surprisingly, due to their structure blogs were and podcasts are like that, to a degree. Twitter is not. The phrase I'm reaching for here, of course, is "safe space".

Jordan Weissmann:

OK, actual thought: I probably wouldn't have signed it (nobody asked me to, because lol, I'm a mid-tier econ writer who cares?). But I understand the temptation, and a lot of people I respect did.

Hilzoy:

But: I need a REASON not to sign a free speech statement; not the other way around. In this case, I just got distracted, and would probably have signed had I not. And yet my motives would have been quite unlike those presupposed in a lot of the commentary I've seen.

Plus a weird back-and-forth between Ezra Klein and Matthew Yglesias.

Heebie's take: (I need to catch up before I have a take.)


 

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Taxing & Relaxing

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.09.20

So it's Tax Records Day for the Supreme Court? How viable is the path where we don't get to see his tax records until after November?

Also: the CDC is going to relax its guidelines for schools after getting mean-tweeted by Trump? This slow motion trainwreck has been 100% forseeable for four months now, and we are just mashing down on the accelerator.


 

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Musing about time

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.08.20

At some point, I read a throwaway line to the effect of, "I get one window in the morning to be my best. I can be the best writer, or get the best workout, or be the best parent, but it only lasts a couple hours, and then I suck at everything."

It's been bouncing around my head lately, partly because right now I'm at my computer from 6 am-noon every morning and then not, after that. Partly because I'm not going to the early morning gym class anymore, and realizing how much I like having that particular time back.

...

Mostly unrelated, I recently came across the concept of time-blindness, for people who have no idea how to estimate how long a task will take, or lose track of time, or whatever. (I think this significantly differs from being perpetually late on assignments because you're a perfectionist, and so you procrastinate out of anxiety.) Anyway, I do not have time-blindness (anymore, for the most part).

But it did remind me that when I was a kid and young adult, every group of people I knew would independently come up with the same damn running joke about me: how long it would take me to put on my shoes. That if everyone was about to walk out the door, and I said, "Hang on, I just have to put on my shoes!" they'd be waiting around for 10-30 minutes, and then half the time I'd come back without shoes on, and say, "Hang on! I just have to put on my shoes!" It used to irritate me that this became a running gag with so many different people.

Anyway, now most of my shoes are slip ons and live near the door. Problem solved.

...

(I found the link to the top quote, and it's not quite like I remembered:

By the way, isn't life hilarious/ironic/cruel that there seems to be a few hours a day where you seem to be best at everything? For me, from 6 am to 11 am is when I'm the best mom, the best writer, the best leader, the best housekeeper, the best athlete...it's the only time I like to work out and it's definitely when I'm most creative. My brain often shuts down at 4 pm (only to wake back up at 9 pm) but at 6 am, I'm on point. So when [the kids] wake up at 6 am, it's a real reckoning of choices. Workouts go out the window. Writing is disrupted. Parenting is hard.

but the gist is mostly the same.)


 

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Various

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.07.20

1. From Mossy: Hong Kong Then and Now: Split screen tour [1973/2018]. Unforgivably, I've procrastinated myself into never going (except the airport). And now it's over.

2. From Chris Y: Mostly for entertainment at this stage of the research. Does Neanderthal ancestry affect how likely you are to contract CoViD-19?

Original post in Spanish. PDF in Google-translate-ese.

Heebie's takes: Then and now split screens are super fun. Here's a turn-of-the-century one for New York, and here's a hilariously-poorly-done one for Austin. First off, it's spanning 2007 to 2014. Second, they just grabbed photos off Google Maps, and it's all horribly distorted with a fish-eye lens view of mostly the sidewalk in the foreground. LA, Detroit, and car manufacturing.

Also that's so sad that Covid killed the Neanderthals.


 

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Semi-Weekly Check Ins, Reassurances, and Concerns, 7/7

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.07.20

This is intended to be our system for checking in on imaginary friends, so that we know whether or not to be concerned if you go offline for a while.

Episode 31.


 

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Some say ICE should end with fire, some say drowning

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.06.20

ICE is rotten to its pus-filled core and should be lanced. This has me sputtering with rage:

I mean, they get to simultaneously punish both international students and schools taking a decisive stand against spreading Covid19. Even at schools that are meeting face to face, I think it would be very easy for a student to end up with only classes taught by instructors who are getting waivers to teach remotely.

via Jammies


 

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So many questions

Posted by Heebie-Geebie
on 07.05.20

Jammies is taking practice quizzes to get his supplemental English as a Second Language certification. Here is a question from a practice test:

In which of the following situations might a student's culture affect their ability to learn?

A. A student from China is asked to work in a cooperative learning group.
B. A student from Australia is asked to be a peer tutor.
C. A student who recently moved from South Korea is asked to work independently.
D. A student from Mexico is asked to survey family members about genetic traits such as hair color, eye color, and face shape.

We have no idea what the right answer is.



 

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